Derek Holland is back. Two starts in, things look pretty good. He still owns a 4.30 career ERA, and is coming off of major knee surgery. Is there anything in his profile that should make us worry?
There are a few exciting names up today. You’ve got your Maikel Franco in Philly, your Joc Pederson in Los Angeles and your Daniel Norris in Toronto. They’ve been called up to the bigs! But, due to innings limits on young arms, and roster crunches on teams now as much as 50% larger, it’s fair to ask. Will any of these youngsters play regularly?
The Tigers claimed Chad Qualls on revocable waivers, and so there might be a new closing job open soon. Condolences to people with deep league teams, like my AL-LABR squad, who are looking at losing their only closer. It might not yet happen — the Astros own Qualls for $3.5 million next year, and that’s very reasonable, even for a below-average closer. At some point, this team needs to think about keeping their assets.
But for now, let’s assume Qualls goes. Who would close behind him?
Many of you are preparing for the head to head playoffs, which often involves looking at the worst couple of pitchers on your roster and thinking about what you want those spots to look like in two weeks. Even those of you in roto leagues are getting down to it and wondering how best to use the remaining innings you have available. In either case, a look at the schedule can be huge.
My method is to look at the free agents in my shallowest league, sort them by ownership, and move through the pitchers. It’s not the most rigorous method. I fail the people around me often.
We looked at pitcher mixes over the last month in order to see who’s made the biggest changes to their arsenals. First up were the pitchers that had gone to the slider more often.
Now let’s look at the pitchers that are throwing more changeups over the last month than they did earlier in the season. The changeup has none of the negative health ramifications of the slider, so in this case the question is: sure, you’re throwing it more, but is it a good pitch? And, also, why they might have made the change.
It’s been about a month since the All-Star break, so our leaderboard splits can allow me to look at a pitcher over the last month and compare them to their first half numbers. Yes, arbitrary endpoints. But! Strikeout rate stabilizes in about a month, so at least it’s not the worst arbitrary endpoints ever chosen.
I took a look at the pitching mixes for qualified pitchers over the last month, and then compared those mixes to the first half. Let’s highlight the biggest movers in the major pitch types, starting with sliders today.
This week’s Change is about a missing changeup. Mike Minor’s changeup, to be specific. It’s half the pitch it used to be, and as a lefty facing many righties, that’s a big problem. Sure, the curve/cutter combo could be enough for Minor to continue being a major league starter, but as he’s in the midst of a bout of homeritis (that has plagued him on and off in his career), it’s worth asking about that changeup in the context of his current results.
Is it the change that changed how we feel about Mike Minor?
One thing we know about strikeout and contact rate is that the stats stabilize quickly. In other words, those stats tell us more about future work in those categories quicker than other stats. But players make changes all the time, and it’s not just the first month of the season that we care about.
So who’s changed the most in the last month? Let’s look at the biggest differences in contact rate over the last month, and it what might tell us about these relevant players.
We call it The Change, but in today’s case, we might have three instances where change looks like it’s happened… but it hasn’t. Is it possible that Carlos Carrasco, Shelby Miller and Trevor May have the same pluses and minuses they’ve always had?
In fact, that’s more likely than change. As much as we look for it.
Okay, in any sort of keeper or dynasty situation, the titular question is ridiculous of course. The recently promoted Javier Baez has all the pedigree, power and speed, and Yangervis Solarte is a 27-year-old non-prospect with few tools and a total lack of position. Game over.
But in redraft leagues, we’re only interested in what Solarte and Baez will do the rest of the way. And in Yahoo, they’re both shortstops that are available in more than three-quarters of the leagues out there. So… is it still obvious?