“Don’t it always seem to go, you don’t know what you got ‘til it’s gone.”

Joni Mitchell may not be a roto savant, but even she might agree that the best part of the fantasy baseball season is research-and-draft season. Every day, from February until Opening Day, is so incredibly thrilling – nonstop spring training news, draft rankings adjustments, and player pool deep-dives – there’s always some rabbit hole of research to go down. As we continue studying and gaining confidence in the fresh player pool and a new year’s ADP, more questions arise, and the more work there is to be done.

Whether in NFBC or best ball contests, high-volume early drafters subconsciously form bad habits in draft rooms. We get too comfortable targeting and drafting the same players over and over. Conversely, we avoid players who have burned us in previous seasons and those we have some subjective bias against. Rarely do we deep dive and reassess those players because we’ve already made up our minds. That’s why it’s crucial to explore every nook and cranny of a positional tier. We have all fallen victim to draft room paralysis, where a decision between several similarly ranked shortstops or starting pitchers becomes gut-wrenching when we’re on the clock. This preseason column aims to help with those tough calls. We will explore some of the most confusing ADP clusters, by position, beyond the simple “I need to boost my batting average, so I’m taking this guy.”

Let’s dive into these ADP pockets logically and systematically, reviewing four analytical components of the players within each cluster.

• Playing Time (and Role)
• Health/Durability
• Skills/Categorical Contributions
• Context of Team Offense

ADP Cluster 1: Second Catcher

ADP from NFBC 12-team Online Championships (OC), February 1^st to 16^th

• Francisco Alvarez, New York Mets (ADP 168.1)
• Gabriel Moreno, Arizona Diamondbacks (177)
• Samuel Basallo, Baltimore Orioles (182)
• Kyle Teel, Chicago White Sox (189.2)

The top of the catcher pool is more robust than ever, as early drafters are prioritizing at least one of the top 10-12. Punting outright is less viable than last season – there are no true sleepers (Hunter Goodman) or studly, late-round prospects (Agustín Ramírez, Drake Baldwin) this draft season. Folks in two-catcher leagues who don’t address the position early end up with low-floor, fungible backstops like Freddy Fermin and Danny Jansen.

This intriguing cluster of catchers between Alejandro Kirk (ADP 156.3) and Carter Jensen (203.2) is packed with potential fantasy profit and serves as a fallback option for drafters in one-catcher leagues. Alvarez, Moreno, Basallo, and Teel are being drafted in Rounds 14 and 15 of NFBC OCs.

Francisco Alvarez, (ADP 168.1)

It’s been quite some time since Alvarez has been fantasy relevant. He popped onto the scene like the Kool-Aid Man, mashing 25 dingers as a rookie in 2023. Since then, Alvarez has spent over 100 days on the IL, mostly due to freakishly bad injury luck:

April 2024 (left thumb UCL tear)

• Broke his fall rounding first base; Missed two months after having surgery.

March 2025 (left hamate bone fracture)

• Injured his hand on a swing in spring training on March 8. He returned one month into the season (April 25) and did not hit his first home run until June 8.

August 2025 (right thumb UCL sprain + left pinky finger fracture)

• Alvarez hurt his thumb on a headfirst slide to second on August 17. Just 10 days later, while on a rehab assignment, he suffered a pinky finger fracture on an errant pitch during an at-bat. Alvarez played through the pain in September, then had surgery on his right thumb after the season ended.

You can’t make this stuff up!

Alvarez’s thumb is fully healed, and he is back to mashing at Mets camp.

Per Laura Albanese of Newsday, Alvarez has lost “eight or 10 pounds by focusing on nutrition”. RosterResource projects Alvarez hitting seventh in this revamped lineup featuring potentially impactful veterans/newcomers Bo Bichette, Marcus Semien, and Luis Robert Jr. Though Alvarez managed only 276 plate appearances last season, his 93.1 mph average exit velocity was three ticks higher than his 2023 mark. Alvarez rocked a potent 57.9% HardHit rate from June 1 to August 17, the day of the right thumb injury.

To summarize, Alvarez is a pure masher who is just 24 years old, in one of the best projected offenses in the majors. He will whiff his fair share (25.9% career) and won’t help in batting average or stolen bases, but will benefit squads in the other three standard roto categories (R, HR, RBI), which should be enough to earn profit on his reasonable price tag.

Gabriel Moreno (ADP: 177)

Moreno is certainly no beacon of health either. He has spent over 140 days on the IL since 2023 with various ailments to his shoulder, groin, left thumb, and right hand. Moreno is nearly two years older than Alvarez. Like Alvarez, Moreno’s career-high games played were in his first full season (111 in 2023). Unlike Alvarez, Moreno is known more for his contact skills (career 82.8% Contact rate) than his power (.123 ISO) and is typically targeted for that rare batting average contribution from a catcher. Only Yainer Diaz’s .279 is higher than Moreno’s (.278), among backstops with at least 1,000 plate appearances since 2023.

Moreno projects as the Opening Day cleanup hitter – a true testament to the weak state of the Diamondbacks offense. Moreover, Corbin Carroll isn’t a lock to be ready for the start of the season, and the likely five-hole hitter against right-handed pitchers is #oldfriend, Quad-A’er, Pavin Smith, who I hope does not read this column. With 450+ plate appearances, Moreno can produce 10-15 HR, 60+ RBI, and a plus BA, but his lack of power and his team’s offensive environment reduce his appeal – especially in the context of the other catchers in this range.

Samuel Basallo (ADP: 182)

We have a rare situation with backstops in Baltimore, with two among the top 15 at the position. Adley Rutschman and Samuel Basallo had ADPs within 10 picks of each other in the NFBC Draft Champions (15-team, 50 rounds, draft-and-hold) for most of the winter. Rutschman’s 12-team OC ADP is at least two rounds higher (149.9, C11) than Basallo’s over the last two weeks. Rutschman’s role and playing time in the top half of the lineup are secure, while Basallo’s will depend on several factors, including his production during spring training and early in the season.

The Jason R.R. Martinez Effect is real, as his lineup projections influence the early draft market. RosterResource slates Basallo to hit ninth as the strong side DH, though this Opening Day lineup is many weeks away from crystallization. We can use Basallo’s small rookie year sample (.165/.229/.330, 118 PA) as a reason to avoid him in redraft leagues, but that would be cherry-picking to support a biased argument. Basallo’s massive power upside in the majors is not debatable, nor is his long-term future with the Orioles after signing an 8-year, $67M deal as a 21-year-old. No matter how talented, all young prospects are works-in-progress, and that progress isn’t usually linear. Perhaps the best approach is to let nature take its course by buying into potential greatness and taking part in the journey. It has been said that cream rises to the top. Basallo is the riskiest of this cluster but offers the most upside and profit potential.

Kyle Teel (ADP: 189.2)

The Boston Red Sox drafted Kyle Teel with the 14th overall pick in the 2023 amateur draft, but they had to part with their prized prospect to pull off the Garrett Crochet heist. Rumors of the Red Sox attempting to reacquire Teel have been afloat this offseason, and their FOMO is well justified after Teel’s impactful 297 rookie-year plate appearances (.273/.375/.411, 12.5% BB). Teel has been labeled a “high IQ player”, which is quite common for catchers, but not always ones with such limited major league experience. Spring training roommate Mike Vasil can surely attest to it, as I initiate a rumor that Vasil saw 16 FanGraphs tabs open on Teel’s laptop.

Projection models don’t peg Teel for much power – at least not this season. His minor league ISO never exceeded .200, and anything over 15 homers would be a bonus. Teel’s earning fantasy profit would come from 1) proving he can hit LHPs to avoid being platooned, 2) maintaining a strong OBP to lock in consistent work in the top third of the lineup, and 3) the overall bolstering of R/RBI production because of an improved offense around him. He should chip in with a few stolen bases as well. Teel certainly has that feel of a ‘fun’ fantasy draft pick, though it’s a realistic possibility that his fantasy ceiling for 2026 isn’t very high, and that he’s a better real-life player than a fantasy one.

Recap

• Francisco Alvarez – best overall value (expect an ADP rise out of this cluster)
• Gabriel Moreno – poor team context; BA category help; high floor if no IL stints
• Samuel Basallo – highest upside; playing time concerns; typical bumpy rookie ride
• Kyle Teel – moderately high floor for the price; potential five-category contributor (light)

Hope you’ve enjoyed my debut! For the next installment, I’ll attempt to shine some light on a cluster of boring, late-round second basemen.