Every Monday, this column will break down the most popular waiver wire and free agent acquisitions of the weekend.

Fantasy baseball managers know that our game is the ultimate test of grit, grind, tenacity, and patience. Unlike fantasy football, where league titles can be won with minimal in-season activity, fantasy baseball leagues require incessant attention and activity. Particularly when it comes to free agent adds and drops. Real-life baseball managers are constantly adjusting batting orders, players are frequently optioned to and promoted from the Minor Leagues, and injuries occur almost daily. There’s no resting on our laurels. We must always stay vigilant with league news and notes and remain active on the waiver wire if we want to win our leagues.

Every week, I’ll dig into the top adds on the ever-popular Fantrax and in the NFBC Online Championship (OC), a national mid-stakes contest with 240 total leagues of 12 and a six-figure grand prize. Reviewing player adds between the two should provide us with a well-rounded perspective and barometer of the fantasy baseball marketplace.

Week 2 Overview

The 2026 season is only five days old, but we’d be lying if we said we weren’t already on tilt with certain players we love and have drafted. Wyatt Langford and Bo Bichette have started the season off slumping (1-14 each). Paul Skenes, Jesús Luzardo, Nathan Eovaldi, and Logan Webb have already set our ratios back, and I’m sure some would like to forget about what happened to Carlos Estévez on Saturday night (I’ll remind you: six earned runs). For every stud who has scorned us, there is a guy in the free agent pool who earned a save, twirled a gem, or hit two bombs over the weekend. Sometimes, a few of those players end up on our squads for the long haul and provide phenomenal value. Most of the time, though, these are players we’ll be throwing back into the FA pool with no roto life vest after they’ve fooled us and decimated our WHIPs and batting averages. Speaking of, where’s Kyren Paris playing these days?

Fantasy managers in the OC and on Fantrax were mostly in sync with the top targets and acquisitions of this past weekend. Let’s review the groups.

% Added is the percentage of leagues that added the player; AWB stands for average winning bid

Roster % is the current percentage of leagues rostering the player; +/-  is the percentage of leagues the player was added in the previous week

Closers

There are very few better feelings in fantasy baseball than scooping up a closer off waivers or free agency early in the season. Around this time last year, there were three big pickups – Emilio Pagán, Will Vest, and Luke Jackson. Pagán worked out splendidly, Vest earned 20+ saves. Jackson didn’t pan out, though he was racking up saves in the first month. Jordan Romano, Lucas Erceg and Cole Sands were the big three pickups of Week 2.

The closers job for the Angels was up in the air through most of the offseason. They signed veterans Romano, Kirby Yates, and Drew Pomeranz (a lefty). Robert Stephenson got hurt again, and Ben Joyce wasn’t quite ready, so it seemed like Yates was in the lead. Yates landed on the IL (knee inflammation) two days before the season. Romano took the bull by the horns coming off a strong spring (6 IP – 1 ER – 1 BB – 6 K), earned a clean on save on Thursday and pitched a scoreless ninth in a non-save situation on Friday. Market sentiment has been polarizing on Romano. He was added in 28% of Fantrax leagues and 80% of OCs with an average winning bid of $173, but there are many managers out there who are dubious on his ability to stay healthy. They also can’t forget about last year’s ratio reckoning (8.23 ERA, 1.45 WHIP in 42.2 IP). Will he hold the job all season? Nobody knows. That’s why we play the game. Yates is expected back soon, but isn’t likely to outright steal the job from him, unless it’s the perfect storm of Yates dominating while Romano is faltering. I’d bet on Romano holding the job down for at least the next two months.

The heavy Lucas Erceg waiver/free agent activity is a case of utilizing our fantasy instincts and common sense. Estévez overperformed his underlying metrics last season and was struggling with extreme velocity dips in the spring. Had Erceg not earned a save this weekend, I’m sure he would still be a popular acquisition, considering Estévez’s struggles. Erceg was a dominant high-leverage reliever for the Athletics in 2024 (22.1% K-BB, 13.8% SwStr). He was serviceable last season with the Royals, though his strikeout rate took a massive tumble from the previous season (28.5% to 19.3%), though he wasn’t at full health. Erceg is the top righty in this bullpen and has a good chance to run away with this job. Estévez has been a solid ninth-inning guy over the last few seasons, but is clearly not at full strength and he is now being evaluated for a possible IL stint. Erceg is the priority add in daily leagues with saves.

I can almost assure you that the Case of Who is the Twins Closer is far from being solved. Cole Sands earned the save opportunity on Saturday and closed it out. He walked one, struck out two and didn’t allow a run in their 3-1 win over the Orioles. On Thursday, lefty Taylor Rogers pitched the final inning (eighth) in a non-save opportunity. Rogers has much more closing experience, but his skills have been slowly dissipating over the last couple of seasons. Sands doesn’t have dynamic stuff nor is he a prototypical closer (sub-10% swinging strike rate in 2025), but he has plus control and a low career walk rate (6.9%). Sands could run away with the job, but I believe that new manager Derek Shelton will deploy Sands or Rogers situationally, depending on whether opposing lefties or righties are coming up in the ninth. Justin Topa could earn opportunities as well, but is behind Sands and Rogers in the pecking order for now.

Starting Pitchers

Emerson Hancock snuck up on the fantasy world with an impeccable outing on Sunday night – nine punchouts and no hits allowed over six innings. Social media was raving over his new sweeper and pitch mix changes as fantasy managers ran to their waivers to acquire and to increase their free agent bid amounts. Hancock had been inconsistent across 28 starts over the last two seasons, including several ERA-damaging outings of 5+ earned runs or more. Hancock certainly looked like a different guy on Sunday night. Will he be a top 20 SP? Probably not. Could this be his breakout season? Very possible. Bryce Miller is no lock to take Hancock’s rotation spot, let alone remain healthy for the season. If Hancock is pitching well when Miller returns, it’s likely that Miller is moved to the bullpen in a multi-inning capacity. One start is far too small of a sample to base strong stands around, but I’m happy to give a talented arm in Seattle the benefit of the doubt.

Kyle Harrison is rostered in most 15-team leagues. His roster rate in OCs was raised from 77% to 99% with a two-start week on tap against the Rays (home) and Royals (road). Harrison had a 20:4 K:BB with nine earned runs allowed in 14 spring innings. He developed a blister before the season started, but is ready to go for his Brewers’ debut. If this week goes poorly, expect to see him back in the free agent pool next weekend. I will be paying close attention to the details instead of just combing the box scores. Harrison and new teammate Brandon Sproat (disaster start on Sunday) are talented pitchers in a good organization and we shouldn’t judge them too harshly on small samples. On the flip side, they’ll have to earn their keep because Logan Henderson (in Triple-A) and Quinn Priester (expected to return in late-April) will be lurking.

Padres righty Randy Vásquez was a popular pickup on Fantrax after his strong outing against the Tigers on Saturday: 6 IP  – 2 H – 0 ER – 3 BB – 8 K. Vásquez posted a 3.84 ERA (5.51 xFIP, 5.43 SIERA) in 133.2 innings last season, most of them as a starter. He hasn’t been helpful in strikeouts (14% K rate since 2024), but his velocity uptick on Saturday’s start was significant (FB up from 93.4 to 95 mph). Fantasy managers with deep rotations should consider alternatives for this week since he faces the Red Sox in Fenway. We can start him  with confidence for his Week 3 start, at home against the Rockies.

Pirates RHP Carmen Mlodzinski is a guy to monitor in public and home leagues across the world of Fantrax, RT Sports, ESPN, CBS, and Yahoo. He opened last season in the rotation, but it was a rough run — a 5.67 ERA and 1.61 WHIP over nine starts. He was converted to a relief role, and excelled in it — 2.12 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 25.5% K, 6.3% BB in 59.1 IP. He punched out eight Mets in 4.1 innings on Sunday and lines up to face the Orioles at home this weekend.

Hitters

Guardians rookie Chase DeLauter is the hottest hitter in the Majors in the first half-week with four home runs in 17 plate appearances. His roster percentage is up to 94 on Fantrax and 78% on Yahoo. He is locked into the two-hole between Steven Kwan and José Ramírez for the foreseeable future.

Joey Wiemer has appeared in only 48 games since his 2023 rookie season with the Brewers when he hit 13 homers with 11 steals and a .204 average in 410 plate appearances. He earned a job in the Nationals outfield as a short side platoon bat. Wiemer has yet to record an out – six hits and two walks in eight plate appearances. Wiemer likely won’t start against righties often, though he earned one on Monday. Nevertheless, he feels like a flavor of the week we shouldn’t be prioritizing unless it’s a deep 18-teamer or NL-Only league.

Some hot pickups with potential staying power in 12-team leagues and higher are Nasim Nuñez (2B/WAS), Jordan Walker (OF/STL), Dominic Canzone (OF/SEA), and Owen Caissie (OF/MIA). Nuñez popped as a 25+ stolen base guy in projection models this season. Walker worked hard this offseason at Driveline to retool his approach at the plate, had a mediocre spring training, but is off to a strong start through his first three games – .400/.500/.900 with six runs scored and a 100.4 mph average exit velocity (albeit, a tiny sample). Canzone and Caissie are strong side platoon bats for their respective teams. Canzone smashed two dingers in Seattle’s first game. Caissie is 5-10 with a homer and a 25% barrel rate through his first three games. Daily leaguers can optimize matchups this week, but folks in weekly or half-weekly leagues should consider benching them. The Marlins are slated to face 2-of-6 southpaws and the Mariners 3-of-6, which projects their max games played this week at four (Caissie) and three (Canzone). Our shallower leagues should have a better outfielder to start this week.

Drop of the Week

Sadly, it’s Andrew Vaughn of the Brewers. He suffered a hamate fracture in his left hand is expected to miss 4-6 weeks. Vaughn is worth stashing on your IL, or on the bench of 15-team leagues with a bench of eight or more. Otherwise, feel free to cut him and keep abreast of his return to pick him up in about a month or so.

Let’s get this party started!

Sorry, Oneil, you’re not invited.

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It’s time to start juggling lineups for the next 26.5 weeks!

Max Fried hurled 6.1 scoreless, two-hit innings in a 4-0 victory over the Giants. Every Yankee earned a hit, except for Aaron Judge, who went 0-5 with four strikeouts. Logan Webb punched out seven batters, but decimated the ratios of one fantasy manager in every league with six earned runs allowed over five innings. We get baseball on the television for most of the day, with 11 games on this official Opening Day.

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For my final article of the preseason, I decided to assign myself the difficult task of identifying my favorite fantasy pick from each Major League team. Some teams have several candidates, while others I have to hold my nose for (cough, cough, the Nats). You’ll see players from throughout the player pool, as my choices aren’t necessarily tied to their market value. They are players I have been targeting and drafting this winter and spring.

Here are the leagues I’m in this season:

• 22 NFBC Gladiators (roto, 15-team, 23 rounds, no bench)
• 7 NFBC Draft Champions (roto, 15-team, 50 rounds, draft and hold)
• 4 NFBC Online Champions (roto, 12-team, 30 rounds, with FAAB)
• 2 NFBC Main Events (roto, 15-team, 30 rounds, with FAAB)
• SCARF (EARTH industry league on NFBC; same setup as the Main Event)
• TGFBI (Justin Mason’s industry league on NFBC, same setup as the Main Event)
• FSGA Experts Champions League (14-team roto, partnered with colleague Joe Orrico)
• Tout Wars (roto, OBP instead of AVG, 15-team, draft and hold)

Yes, I love helping people win at fantasy baseball, but I also love to play it. You might think I’m crazy, but please note that only nine of them are FAAB leagues. The Gladiator is a hybrid best ball format where I don’t even have to set the lineups. I won’t even mention the 100+ best ball leagues I’m in on other sites. Again, no management is necessary – just draft and hope for production and good health luck.

Let’s get into it. Listed with each player is their current NFBC Online Championship and Yahoo average draft positions.

Toronto Blue Jays – Kazuma Okamoto, 1B/3B (NFBC: 196, Yahoo: 166)

Many older players from overseas have a difficult time adjusting to the Major Leagues. If spring training is any indication, Okamoto seems to be adjusting just fine (.316/.435/.632). He’s going to be an integral part of this offense. Oh, and Sporer loves him, too. Honorable mentions to Daulton Varsho (30+ homers if he stays healthy) and Cody Ponce 폰세, though his ADP has leaped over 100 spots over the last month.

Boston Red Sox – Roman Anthony, OF (50, 46)

I strongly believe that Anthony is a future Hall of Famer and that he will be a top 20 hitter in his first full season as the leadoff hitter for a strong Red Sox offense. Many fantasy analysts and managers believe that 2026 is the Year of the Breakout for Wilyer Abreu and Ceddanne Rafaela. Now imagine if Jarren Duran produces like it’s 2024, Trevor Story avoids fluky injuries, and Willson Contreras exceeds 600 plate appearances for the first time. That’s a lot of “ifs”, but with that pitching staff depth and bullpen, this could be a magical season in Fenway.

New York Yankees – José Caballero, 2B/3B/SS/OF (196, 189)

Most of the Yankees are fairly priced, but fully priced. The New York Fantasy Tax is a real thing – everyone knows proud New Yorkers get their guys. Caballero is a swipes maestro who has been working hard to improve as a hitter this offseason, and is eligible at almost every fantasy position. He’s a great hitter to bring into your lineup when someone in your starting lineup suffers a midweek injury or you need some stolen bases. An honorable mention to Carlos Rodón, who is one of my favorite mid-to-late-round stashes, and is on track to return well before Gerrit Cole.

Baltimore Orioles – Five-Way Tie

My rule of thumb for 2026 drafts, if you have any remaining: when in doubt, draft the Orioles hitter. In AL Bold Predictions on FTN, I prognosticate that the Orioles will be the fourth team in history to hit 300 home runs. I have a Gunnar Henderson–Pete Alonso 1-2 punch on several teams, and would happily do it again. Colton Cowser, Trevor Rogers, and Shane Baz are the other three O’s I’ve been targeting. Well, I guess I like their pitching too (just not their horrendous bullpen).

Tampa Bay Rays – Griffin Jax, RP (149, 198)

Cream rises to the top in real life, and often does in fantasy as well. After a rocky rookie season in 2021 (6.37 ERA in 82 innings, mostly as a starter), Jax has slowly turned into one of the best relievers in the game. Over the last two seasons, only two qualified relievers have a higher swinging-strike rate than Jax’s 18.3% – Josh Hader (20.8%) and Mason Miller (20.3%). With Edwin Uceta ailing and Garrett Cleavinger a lefty, it’s only a matter of time for Kevin Cash to let Jax run with the closer’s job, similar to Pete Fairbanks last year.

Cleveland Guardians – Chase DeLauter, OF (269, 198)

Not a team loaded with fantasy goodness, but DeLauter stands out. A healthy DeLauter is a fantasy pick with massive upside, though his price has been steadily rising – out of the 300s and up several rounds, due to a hot spring. Parker Messick is a strong end-game target, though I haven’t been able to land many shares. I wouldn’t be shocked if he out-earns last season’s Major League walks leader, Gavin Williams.

Detroit Tigers – N/A

No offense to Tiger fans, but they are not a very exciting group from a fantasy perspective. Of course, that doesn’t mean that managers won’t be able to squeeze out some fantasy profit from some of these players. Tarik Skubal is the best pitcher in baseball. I have not often been in a position to draft him – and when I have, I usually target the elite first-round hitter. Sadly, I have no Skubal shares. The move to Detroit is a great one for Framber Valdez, on paper, but I don’t have great vibes on him this season. Jack Flaherty can be spectacular in one start, and serve up a half-dozen earned runs in the next – I can’t stomach that volatility. Top prospect Kevin McGonigle made the team and will be an exciting player. This is one I likely missed the boat on – especially recently, as his price continues to soar. The best bangs for the buck are Dillon Dingler and Gleyber Torres, with ADPs in the mid-200s.

Kansas City Royals – Vinnie Pasquantino, 1B (77, 81)

I highlighted Vinnie P in my bold predictions article earlier this month, noting that smashing 40 dingers may not be quite so bold. Kauffman Stadium’s outfield fences are moving in being lowered, which should bode well for most of their hitters. In fact, there are quite a few 30+ HR candidates on the squad. Their pitching staff is solid, and the bullpen has been upgraded from last season. The Royals are my pick to win the AL Central.

Chicago White Sox – Austin Hays, OF (341, N/A)

Would you believe me if I told you that the White Sox player with the highest ADP this season is their new closer who has never been a closer for a full season and posted a 13.8% walk rate last season? I have a couple of Seranthony Domínguez shares, but I don’t feel great about it. I do feel good about a late-round Austin Hays, who should be an everyday hitter and respectable producer in the middle of their lineup.

Minnesota Twins – Matt Wallner, OF (297, N/A)

Wallner is an elite power hitter with some past oblique issues. But Wallner is only focused on the future, which involves soaking those obliques before sleep, and then smashing some baseballs. Wallner and his 16% barrel rate can produce a 30-HR, 85-RBI season as an everyday player for the Twins. Management doesn’t intend to platoon him at this time. Mick Abel has been flying up draft boards, but alas, I have not been able to sneak a share yet. Josh Bell has been a bargain all season (ADP 370), and it’s almost criminal to not click on his name in a draft where you need a CI with power.

The Athletics – Jacob Wilson윌슨, SS (201, 161)

There are so many A’s to choose from. We’re expecting the world from the likes of Nick Kurtz, Brent Rooker, Tyler Soderstrom, Shea Langeliers, and even Lawrence Butler and his 94.3% healed knees. This is the type of offense that will keep opposing pitchers awake the night before the game, and give them nightmares in their sleep after the game. Wilson will play his part in disrupting Circadian rhythms as a potential .320-80-17-70-13 bat this season. The AL Batting Title goes through Mr. Wilson this year.

Houston Astros – Mike Burrows, SP (224, 207)

The former Pittsburgh Pirates’ prospect will find himself comfortable down in the Lone Star state. Thankfully, he won’t have to be the lone star in the rotation with ace Hunter Brown there. Some of us were witness to his official breakout, which occurred after the last All-Star break where Burrows produced a 3.27 ERA (3.19 FIP), 1.07 WHIP, 25.1% K, and a 6.4% BB in 10 starts and two multi-relief, piggyback spots. Burrows will make his official Astros debut on Friday against the Angels, as the pitcher slated second in his rotation.

Seattle Mariners – Brendan Donovan, 2B (265, 188)

We don’t only need stars to win fantasy baseball leagues, we need support roles as well. In this loaded lineup of stars, Donovan shall be the table-setter; the elite contact rate guy who provides above-average production, just not with a barrage of homers or bag thefts. “Better in real baseball” is what they say about Donovan. I wonder what they’ll be saying this October when the leadoff man scores triple-digit runs and establishes himself as the glue of this offense. Only time will tell and I’ll be ready to listen to the audio book on my long drive to Thanksgiving dinner.

Los Angeles Angels – Logan O’Hoppe, C (250, 196)

We need to set some thresholds for the Driveline guys, but keep it simple. Can we measure it simply? Like, if O’Hoppe hits 30 home runs, then it’s one point for Driveline, or something like that. For drafters in one-catcher leagues who are light in roto power categories and need to fill their catcher slot before the draft ends might be thrilled with the big bopper, who I am certain has another level of production marinating and ready to be served up in 2026. Wait, we forgot to cook! O’Hoppe will do just that with elite framework for those called third strikes. It’s rumored that LOH knows the ABS blind spot.

Texas Rangers – Jack Leiter, SP (239, 209)

Wyatt Langford and Corey Seager need each other. If one is hurt for a prolonged period, the other likely won’t earn or exceed their fantasy value. Both have been big targets, but the Langford price has skyrocketed with his red-hot spring, up to 33 in 12-team NFBC leagues. We saw glimpses of Leiter’s potential and dominance in his first full season and all said, “if only he could cut down on the free passes.” He’s been doing just that in the spring. If he could pull a Pivetta and dip that walk rate down to the 8-9% range, we’ll be laughing all the way to the roto bank.

New York Mets – Luis Robert Jr., OF (107, 144)

This was a tough one because this team is loaded with fantasy goodness. Robert Jr. is one of my highest rostered hitters. He’s had a rough few years filled with losing, multiple managers, and myriad of injuries. This is his fresh start. He’s an above average base-stealer, an excellent defender, and likely did not hit 38 homers in 2023 by accident. Devin Williams, Bo Bichette, Freddy Peralta, Francisco Alvarez, Jorge Polanco, and Marcus Semien are other Mets I’ve frequently targeted in drafts. It’s an offense we want to invest in, and they may very well break the curse in 2026.

Atlanta Braves – Ronald Acuña Jr., OF (5, 10)

Acuña produced the best roto season in history (2023) before Shohei Ohtani topped him the following season. With the Braves offensive band healthy and back together, sparks (and balls) should fly. The big issue, of course, is the pitching rotation. Their current “IL staff” with Spencer Strider and Spencer Schwellenbach looks better than the quintet the Braves are rolling out there to begin the 2026 season. I’ve drafted Acuña over Juan Soto at the 4-spot quite frequently this draft season, and even took him over Bobby Witt Jr. at the 1.03 in my latest draft. Austin Riley and Matt Olson have been targets as well.

Philadelphia Phillies – 3-Way-Tie: Cristopher Sánchez, SP (24, 27), Jesús Luzardo, SP (69, 81), Zack Wheeler, SP (110, 137)

I’ve had one rule with starting pitchers this winter: don’t leave a draft without a Phillies or Mariners arm. This was a nasty trio last season. Per our Player Rater, Sánchez was the overall SP6, Wheeler the SP14, and Luzardo the SP30. Luzardo’s value was slightly weighed down by his ratios (3.96, 1.22), though he ranked fifth in the Majors in strikeouts with 216.

Miami Marlins – Max Meyer, SP (256, N/A)

Though I have a few shares of Jakob Marsee, my favorite Marlins’ target has been Meyer. He only threw seven innings in spring, but they were filthy. He struck out 12, walked one, and did not allow an earned run. Meyer is incredibly talented, but has dealt with his fair share of injuries over the last few years. The key is that he is healthy now. Drafters have taken notice as his ADP has risen over 100 spots (to 257 in OCs) over the last two months.

Washington Nationals – N/A

My only true Nats’ target this winter was Harry Ford, who will undoubtedly crush in Triple-A while Keibert Ruiz keeps his job warm for him. It’s difficult to invest in a third-round James Wood, regardless of the obvious power and upside. His 221 strikeouts in 2025 were the third most ever, behind Mark Reynolds (223 in 2009) and Adam Dunn (222 in 2012). Top prospect Dylan Crews was just optioned to Triple-A, and CJ Abrams might need a chaperone for the evenings before road games, so he can be fully rested for a game of professional baseball. Don’t get me started on the pitchers and their closer committee, led by Clayton Beeter and his 17.3% walk rate last season. Though he’s moving in the right direction this spring (11.5% walk rate, yippee!) Though we all know that anything is possible in the Year of Our (Brad) Lord.

Milwaukee Brewers – Brandon Tie: Brandon Woodruff, SP ( 161, 131), Brandon Sproat, SP (323 ,N/A)

There’s something in the pitching water in Milwaukee, and we all want a taste. Woodruff was an early-draft-season target and Sproat more recently, since being traded to the Brewers. Let’s hope Woodruff can stay healthy and that Sproat can deliver on the promise and hype from his days as a New York Mets’ prospect.

Chicago Cubs – Nico Hoerner, 2B (99, 98)

I don’t always target an early second baseman this draft season, but when I do, it’s usually Hoerner around his ADP. It takes the proper power-heavy build through the first few rounds – one where Hoerner is the perfect complement with his assistance in three categories – batting average, runs, and stolen bases.

Pittsburgh Pirates – Konnor Griffin, SS (185, 191)

His price rose, and then it dropped. Now it’s reasonable, especially with us all aware of the Pirates’ front office’s tendencies of being cheap, maximizing service time, and keeping their top prospects down. Griffin is going to make an impact in the big leagues as soon as he is promoted, which I expect to happen sometime in early May. He is one of the few hitters worth stashing on shallow benches, especially if he is available in your last-minute drafts after 200 ADP.

Cincinnati Reds – Matt McLain, 2B (128, 182)

He was a star at UCLA, and a budding star in his rookie season with the Reds in 2023, though his .290 average was clearly inflated by an irregularly high BABIP of .385. He was mostly a bust as a top 100 pick last season, and was hovering in the 180-200 ADP range for most of the winter. Fast forward to this spring where he has been the hottest hitter on the planet (.529/.571/1.020), and suddenly his NFBC ADP is closer to 100. Folks who invested early are pleased. He will go through prolonged slumps and strike out a ton, but has massive upside and potential to out-earn even his current draft cost.

St. Louis Cardinals – Iván Herrera, UT/C (182, 167)

Herrera was an unassuming, slap-hitter in the minors, who gradually improved his power metrics every season since. Last year was the breakout, as he hit .284 with 19 dingers, flexing above-average power (91.2 EV, 11% BRL, 47.4% HH). Health is the biggest question mark, and the one risk with drafting him. I haven’t landed him in drafts as much as I would have liked – he’s my ultimate FOMO guy. Herrera should earn catcher eligibility sometime in late April or early May.

San Francisco Giants -Tie: Ryan Walker, RP (132, 189), Jung Hoo Lee 이정후, OF (300, 192)

Walker has flown under the radar for most of draft season because there hasn’t been much written about the Giants’ bullpen. His draft cost has been affordable because he wasn’t very good in his first full season as their closer. There isn’t much competition for the ninth-inning gig in San Francisco, and Walker has had a strong spring. Jung Hoo Lee is one of my “one year early” guys – my most rostered hitter last season. Moving back to his original position in the KBO (right field) should make him more comfortable. He won’t wow in any particular category, though he’s a sneaky candidate to hit over .300 this season.

San Diego Padres – Michael King, SP (136, 140)

I love Mason Miller as much as anyone, but I’ve haven’t been comfortable drafting him at his second-round ADP, outside of Gladiator contests back in December. King has been my favorite Padres’ target as a 10-round SP3 in 15-team leagues with the potential to help anchor my staff’s ERA and strikeout categories.

Arizona Diamondbacks – Jordan Lawlar, 3B (257, N/A)

Hello, my name is Vlad Sedler – President of the Jordan Lawlar Fan Club. We all have our biases, and Lawlar is one of my biggest. He’s a former top prospect with the potential for five-category contribution and will gain outfield eligibility soon. The knock on him can’t be ignored – the kid has not been able to stay healthy. If he does though, it’s Profit Central.

Colorado Rockies – Brenton Doyle, OF (166, 183)

The only Rockies player in the top 100 ADP is Hunter Goodman. If we scroll down a few rounds, the next man up is Brenton Doyle, who has been reasonably priced all draft season in the 160-200 ADP range. Doyle broke out in 2024 (82 R, 23 HR, 72 RBI, 30 SB), then had a rough follow-up in 2025 as he dealt with a family tragedy early in the season. He looked good after the All-Star break, hitting .282 with 8 HR and 9 SB in 56 games (207 PA), and has had a strong spring.

Los Angeles Dodgers – Kyle Tucker, OF (13, 11)

Saving my home team for last, we all know the fantasy juggernaut that the Dodgers are, though many of them are expensive – six of their players have average draft positions in the top 70. I do believe in a Mookie Betts bounce-back, though I usually target pitchers in his draft range and also usually have a shortstop by the time he’s a draft consideration around his ADP. I have more shares of Roki Sasaki than probably anyone in the NFBC, most from December and January non-FAAB leagues. I can be stubborn, but must also be realistic: he appears broken and unconfident, and may need a stint in the minors to help him. As for my top Dodgers target, that’s newcomer Kyle Tucker, who I believe will stay healthy, hit at least 30 home runs and make a run for the NL RBI crown.

Hope you’ve enjoyed my preseason content, and I look forward to serving you with good advice during the season. Opening Day is almost here, so let’s Play Ball!

“It’s been seven hours and fifteen days / since you took my drafts awayyyy”

Sinead O’Connor may not be a roto savant, but even she might agree that the best part of the fantasy baseball season is research-and-draft season. Every day, from February until Opening Day, is so incredibly thrilling – nonstop spring training news, draft rankings adjustments, and player pool deep-dives – there’s always some rabbit hole of research to go down. As we continue studying and gaining confidence in the fresh player pool and a new year’s ADP, more questions arise, and the more work there is to be done.

Whether in NFBC or best ball contests, high-volume early drafters subconsciously form bad habits in draft rooms. We get too comfortable targeting and drafting the same players over and over. Conversely, we avoid players who have burned us in previous seasons and those we have some subjective bias against. Rarely do we deep dive and reassess those players because we’ve already made up our minds. That’s why it’s crucial to explore every nook and cranny of a positional tier. We have all fallen victim to draft room paralysis, where a decision between several similarly ranked shortstops or starting pitchers becomes gut-wrenching when we’re on the clock. This preseason column aims to help with those tough calls. We will explore some of the most confusing ADP clusters, by position, beyond the simple “I need to boost my batting average, so I’m taking this guy.”

Let’s dive into these ADP pockets logically and systematically, reviewing four analytical components of the players within each cluster. Since this specific article’s topic is starting pitchers, the components have been slightly adjusted:

Health and Durability
Skills: Arsenal, Stuff, Velocity, Command, Control
Roto Ratio Expectations (ERA, WHIP)
Team Context: Defense, Bullpen, Run Support (Wins)

ADP Cluster: Round 16 Upside Starting Pitchers

These are starting pitchers drafted in Round 16 (ADP 180-192) in the NFBC Online Championship (OC) over the last four days (20 drafts).

• Kris Bubic, Kansas City Royals (ADP 188.7)
• Cade Horton, Chicago Cubs (189.2)
• Shane McClanahan, Tampa Bay Rays (190.2)
• Shane Baz, Baltimore Orioles (191.5)
• Tanner Bibee, Cleveland Guardians (192)

All in this cluster were highly touted prospects who offer massive fantasy profit potential this season. Horton, McClanahan, and Baz were all real-life former first round draft picks. Bubic and Bibee were top pitching prospects in their respective organizations at one time. Would we be surprised if one or two of them ended up as a top 10 SP in 2026? This is the range Bryan Woo (SP4) was drafted from last spring.

Health and Durability

McClanahan turns 29 next month, and Bubic will be 29 this summer. Bibee just turned 27, Baz turns 27 in June, and Horton will be 25 in August. Bubic and McClanahan are both southpaws.

Kris Bubic was drafted in 2018, made 10 starts in his rookie season (2020), then averaged 130 innings per season from 2021-2022, mostly as a starter with an ERA over 5.00. He had Tommy John surgery early in the 2023 season, and returned late in 2024, missing the majority of both seasons. Previously a starter, Bubic was a dominant reliever in the final two months of 2024, then officially broke out in 2025 (2.55 ERA, 1.18 WHIP in 20 starts) before getting shut down in late July for a left rotator cuff strain. Bubic is healthy heading into the 2026 season. This spring, he has allowed just one run with three walks and 10 strikeouts over three abbreviated starts (eight innings).

Cade Horton has an extensive and serious injury history. He tore his UCL before his freshman year at the University of Oklahoma in 2021. His 2024 season was lost due to a right shoulder strain that May and he did not pitch again until the winter. Last season, he dealt with finger blisters, fractured his right rib by (cough) coughing, and was shut down before the playoffs. Horton’s 118 innings last season was his first time over 90 ever. This spring, he tossed two scoreless innings in his first appearance (February 24), served up six runs and two walks in 3.2 IP on March 9, and struck out 10 with just one run and one walk in latest start earlier this week.

Shane McClanahan last pitched in the Majors in 2023. He missed his freshman year of college recovering from TJS (2016), missed 17 days with back tightness in July of 2023, and had his second TJS in August of that same year. In his final ramp-up start of camp last March, McClanahan suffered a nerve injury in his triceps, and had surgery on it in August. His fastball velocity in Sunday’s exhibition start (94.8 mph) was down (from his previous 97), but he looked dominant, punching out seven Pirates and didn’t allow a hit in 3.2 innings.

Shane Baz has spent more time dealing with or recovering from right elbow troubles than pitching, since being drafted in 2017. He underwent arthroscopic elbow surgery in March of 2022, returned in June, and went back on the 60-day IL the following month. In late September of 2022, he underwent Tommy John surgery. Baz missed all of  2023, and returned in May of 2024. He made 10 starts in Triple-A and 14 for the Rays. Last season, he managed to stay healthy, throwing 166.1 innings over 31 starts.

Tanner Bibee has had the least amount of arm troubles of the bunch. His only IL stint in three Major League seasons was in his rookie year (2023), missing 15 days with right hip inflammation. Bibee dealt with some shoulder tightness in 2024, and has had to leave starts early with severe leg cramps a few times in the last two seasons – an issue that has plagued him since his college days. Bibee has averaged 166 innings per season over the last three, while Baz, McClanahan, and Bubic have averaged 174.1 innings combined over that same span.

If there’s a cluster we don’t need to see health grades for, it’s this one. But if you’re curious, here they are, courtesy of Jeff Zimmerman, from Eno Sarris’ article at The Athletic. McClanahan does not have a health grade listed.

• Tanner Bibee – 96%
• Cade Horton – 83%
• Shane Baz – 74%
• Kris Bubic – 72%

Skills: Arsenal, Stuff, Velocity, Command, Control

Roto Ratio Expectations (ERA, WHIP)

With much of this group missing significant time over the last few seasons, it is difficult to compare recent results. I’ll combine skills and ratio expectations into one section here. For this cluster, I’m using ATC’s projections, since it is an aggregate model. Included in the table below are the pitchers’ current ADP and their ADP from February, over 66 NFBC OC drafts.

Bubic is a lefty who utilized a four-pitch mix last season (four-seam fastball, changeup, sweeper, slider), and occasionally threw a sinker. His four primary pitches were all plus offerings, though he doesn’t overpower opposing hitters (92.1 mph FB). Bubic produced a 24.4% strikeout rate and a 8.2% walk rate in his 20 starts – rates in line with his projections for 2026. He is more likely to produce a sub-4.00 ERA than a sub 1.20 WHIP. He allowed only six home runs in 116.1 innings (0.46 HR/9), a feat that would be difficult to repeat in a similar number of innings, particularly with Kansas City moving fences in.

Usually, a 1.4 differential between one’s ERA (2.67) and xFIP (4.27) in the prior season would push fantasy analysts and managers away and bucket a pitcher into the “lucky and due to regress” category. That’s not the case with Horton, who has held steadfastly with a 189 ADP since early February. His underlying metrics against lefties and righties were similar, though the one standout split was BABIP (.291 vs. LHHs, .219 vs. RHHs). He utilized his sweeper primary on righties (.171 BAA, 25.7% K), and his changeup more frequently against lefties (.115 BAA, 32.8% K). Horton averaged nearly 97 mph on his four-seam fastball. He was incredible at Wrigley Field (1.63 ERA, .251 wOBA). He generated league-average swings and misses (11% SwStr), but that mark hovered in the 14-15% range in the minors. Expect some improvement there closer to the 12-13% range in 2026.

Shane Baz has a similar ADP as last draft season. What has kept his ADP stable? Probably his poor ERA (4.87) in 2025, and slight market concern about making half of his starts in Oriole Park instead of Tropicana Field. That ERA was a nearly a full run higher than his xFIP (3.88) and SIERA (3.95), with the majority of the damage occurring at hitter-friendly George Steinbrenner Field (5.90 ERA, .355 wOBA), while posting respectable rates on the road (3.86, .303). He unloaded his four-seamer at a 44% clip close to evenly against righties and lefties with an average velocity of 97 mph. Baz did not fare well with a new cutter last season (.412 wOBA, 16% K), but he mastered his knuckle curve with a sharp downward bite that punched batters out at a rate of 35.2%. Baz developed a two-seam fastball in the offseason.

Tanner Bibee is the least “electric” of the group and has lost quite a bit of market confidence after a disappointing season (4.24 ERA, 1.23 WHIP) where draft helium took him as high as the fourth round of 15-team NFBC leagues last March. Going into last draft season, he was labeled as a dependable SP2 after an impressive first two years in the majors with a high strikeout rate (25.5%), low walk rate (6.6%), and one of only seven qualified pitchers between 2023 and 2024 with an ERA of 3.25 or lower. In 2025, Bibee greatly reduced his FB usage (from 43% to 28%), but that offering was still frequently mashed (47% hard-hit, .372 wOBA). He served up dingers at a higher rate (1.33 HR/9) than the past two seasons (.97) despite a six percent decrease in fly balls.

McClanahan last threw a regular season pitch in August of 2023 and is anxiously awaiting that first start in nearly three years. In his 74 career starts, McClanahan sports a 3.02 ERA (3.15 xFIP), a 1.10 WHIP, 28% strikeout rate and 7.1% walk rate. He will be under a strict innings limit this season, with a target of around 150. He is expected to make his Major League return in the Rays’ fifth game, which will be March 31 in Milwaukee.

Team Context: Defense, Bullpen, Run Support (Wins)

The Cubs defense is projected as one of the best in 2026, which is great for Horton. The Guardians (for Bibee) are expected to be strong defensively, and Progressive Field is an offense-suppressing environment.

The Rays moving back to their pitcher-friendly home stadium doesn’t move the needle much for McClanahan’s market price. If he’s on his A-game, where he pitches doesn’t matter.

Oriole Park at Camden Yards has been tougher on pitchers since they moved the walls in before last season. The HR Park Factor there last season was 121, second highest behind Dodger Stadium (137). Baz won’t stand a chance holding his HR/9 below 1.00, but can still produce a 4.00 ERA and at least a strikeout per inning. The O’s boast a powerhouse offense and should provide ample run support.

The walls moving in Kauffman Stadium shouldn’t impact Bubic’s HR rate as much as someone like his ace rotation-mate, Cole Ragans, but it might be too much to ask for a repeat of Bubic’s masterful, partial season. The Royals’ infield defense on the left side is bolstered by Bobby Witt Jr. and Maikel Garcia, but is questionable at the keystone with Jonathan India expected to move back there full time.

It is difficult to assess these bullpens and how they might move the needle on our valuations of starting pitchers in this cluster. The bullpen I’m most confident in is Kansas City’s. They added Matt Strahm in the offseason, hope to have a full season from Lucas Erceg, and have several other effective arms: lefties Daniel Lynch IV and veteran Bailey Falter, and righties John Schreiber, Nick Mears and possibly a new and improved Alex Lange. The Orioles’ bullpen is scary and include a couple of names even I’ve never heard of.

Recommendation (with target grade)

Talent-wise, this cluster of pitchers is an A-, but if we’re collectively grading them with durability in mind, the grade drops down to a solid B.

Cade Horton (B) is the pitcher who’s risen up my personal rankings the most since November. The more I dig in, the more I want to target him in drafts.

Tanner Bibee (B-)  is the most stable of the group, but with the lowest upside. Sometimes that’s a good thing in fantasy.

I’d love to see Shane McClanahan (B-) bounce all the way back. My main issue with him is his recent draft helium, which may soar into the top 120 overall with another solid spring outing.

Kris Bubic (B+) and Shane Baz (A-) are my two favorite targets in this group. The ride might be bumpy with Baz, but I believe 2026 will be his breakout season.

“Don’t it always seem to go, you don’t know what you got ‘til it’s gone.”

Joni Mitchell may not be a roto savant, but even she might agree that the best part of the fantasy baseball season is research-and-draft season. Every day, from February until Opening Day, is so incredibly thrilling – nonstop spring training news, draft rankings adjustments, and player pool deep-dives – there’s always some rabbit hole of research to go down. As we continue studying and gaining confidence in the fresh player pool and a new year’s ADP, more questions arise, and the more work there is to be done.

Whether in NFBC or best ball contests, high-volume early drafters subconsciously form bad habits in draft rooms. We get too comfortable targeting and drafting the same players over and over. Conversely, we avoid players who have burned us in previous seasons and those we have some subjective bias against. Rarely do we deep dive and reassess those players because we’ve already made up our minds. That’s why it’s crucial to explore every nook and cranny of a positional tier. We have all fallen victim to draft room paralysis, where a decision between several similarly ranked shortstops or starting pitchers becomes gut-wrenching when we’re on the clock. This preseason column aims to help with those tough calls. We will explore some of the most confusing ADP clusters, by position, beyond the simple “I need to boost my batting average, so I’m taking this guy.”

Let’s dive into these ADP pockets logically and systematically, reviewing four analytical components of the players within each cluster.

• Playing Time (and Role)
• Health/Durability
• Skills/Categorical Contributions
• Context of Team Offense

ADP Cluster: Post-300 Outfielders

ADP from 17 NFBC 12-team Online Championships (OC) drafts over the last five days (March 12 – March 16)

• Jasson Domínguez, New York Yankees (ADP 304)
• Cam Smith, Houston Astros (308)
• Matt Wallner, Minnesota Twins (309.7)
• Cedric Mullins, Tampa Bay Rays (310.3)
• Carson Benge, New York Mets (310.5)
• Jung Hoo Lee 이정후, San Francisco Giants (310.8)

These outfielders are drafted in the Rounds 25-26 of OCs, typically as an OF5. For shallower 12-teamers with 23-25 rounds, some of these hitters may be early-season waiver targets. Carson Benge is the only one here without major league experience. Jasson Dominguez is rumored to start the season in the minors. Cam Smith, Matt Wallner, Cedric Mullins and Jung Hoo Lee are projected as everyday starters in their respective lineups. Domínguez, Smith, Wallner, and Mullins were all utilized as part of a platoon for parts of the 2025 season.

Playing Time (and Role)

For Jasson Domínguez, it’s a matter of when, not if. The former heralded prospect and top 150 ADP selection from 2025 has seen his 2026 draft stock fall over the last couple of months with expectations of starting the season in Triple-A. After all, the Yankees re-signed Cody Bellinger and Trent Grisham, Giancarlo Stanton (the DH) is healthy (for now) and the great Aaron Judge mans right field. Manager Aaron Boone wants Domínguez to be playing every day, but that opportunity doesn’t yet present itself in the majors. Boone’s problem though is that Domínguez has been forcing his hand with exceptional production in spring training – .371/.395/.686, 3 HR, 10 RBI, 3 SB, 170 wRC+ in 38 plate appearances. Domínguez had a decent rookie season (.257/.331/.388, 58 R, 23-of-27 SB in 429 PA), but his playing time was reduced down the stretch and he essentially didn’t play in the playoffs.

For the last couple of months, RosterResource projected Cam Smith as a short side platoon outfielder. That designation has been shifted to full-time right fielder batting eighth on Opening Day. His RosterResource batting order projection will certainly influence his market price these next couple of weeks. What is more important for drafters is to solidify whether they’re buying or fading based on his profile, not projected playing time, because the latter could fluctuate all season like it did in his rookie year. Smith hit lefties better (130 wRC+, .191 ISO) than he did righties (75, .098), but the sample is a small one and not predictive. Jake Myers will be play centerfield, and the other two spots will be split between Smith and lefty bats Joey Loperfido (welcome back to Houston!) and Zach Cole. Smith played 132 games in right field last season.

Matt Wallner can absolutely mash and he may earn the opportunity for full-time at-bats in the context of a weaker lineup that needs him. In 97 plate appearances against lefties last season, Wallner actually had a higher wRC+ (118) than he did against righties (113 in 295 PA) as well as a similar ISO (.247 vs. RHP, .267 vs. LHP). So far this spring, he is hitting .294 with two homers, a stolen base, and a 14.6% walk rate, through 41 plate appearances.

Cedric Mullins signed with the Rays in December in what will the first Opening Day in his career that he doesn’t don an Orioles uniform. A left-handed hitter, Mullins has avoided being platooned for most of his career, but experienced a little bit of it the last two seasons. We expect the Rays to include him in their lineup against both lefties and righties, though if he struggles, this outfield room is loaded with alternatives, including recently acquired rookie prospect, Jacob Melton. Mullins is 31 and has never been an elite defender in center,  posting negative UZR’s in all but one season. Mullins dealt with a back flare-up a couple of weeks ago, but appears healthy now. Through his first nine spring games, Mullins has two homers and a swipe.

Carson Benge is the sweet-swinging, lefty-batting, first-round selection of the Mets in the 2024 draft. He is having a strong camp (.367/.406/.433) and is projected to crack the Opening Day roster. Though he will likely begin the year on the strong side of a right field platoon with slick defender, Tyrone Taylor.

Jung Hoo Lee was a KBO star who signed a 6-year ($18.8M AAV) deal with the Giants two years ago, missed most of the 2024 season with injury, and produced mediocre results in 2025. Lee played 147 of 149 games in centerfield last season, but is being moved back to his original position from his KBO days (right field), primarily because of the offseason acquisition of Harrison Bader. Lee was a better hitter against righties (118 wRC+) than lefties (77) last season, though new manager Tony Vitello will likely start him every game. If Lee happens to stumble against lefties around a time when Luis Matos or Jerar Encarnacion heat up, it’s possible for Lee to fall into a platoon, but I wouldn’t bet on it.

Health/Durability

None of the outfielders in this cluster have current injuries to worry about, but most of them have had their fair share of injuries over the years.

Cedric Mullins – The oldest of this group (31), Mullins has had a few lower-body related injury stints over the last few seasons. He missed time with a right hamstring strain last spring and missed over a month with a right groin strain in May of 2023.

Jasson Domínguez – He tore his UCL at the end of the 2023 minor-league season and had Tommy John surgery. He suffered a left oblique strain in the summer of 2024 and missed a couple of games (no IL stint) in June of 2025 with a left thumb contusion.

Jung Hoo Lee – He remained relatively health in his South Korea days, though he broke his ankle and missed half the 2023 season. The following year, his first in the Majors, he dislocated his shoulder crashing into an outfield wall in mid-May and underwent season-ending surgery. He tweaked his ankle in the WBC last week, but it turned out to be a minor issue.

Matt Wallner – He missed five weeks early last season after suffering a left hamstring strain. He also dealt with oblique strains in each of the past two seasons. Not surprising considering the big dude swings hard and carries a big stick.

Carson Benge missed his first season of college at Oklahoma State after an elbow injury caused him to undergo Tommy John surgery. His injury was pitching-related, and the two-way player shifted his focus to hitting and playing the outfield.

Cam Smith does not have an injury history other than minor nicks and bruises.

The two who I’d slightly ding fantasy value for their health and durability are Mullins and Wallner.

Skills/Categorical Contributions

Matt Wallner is in a class of his own here because of his prolific power. Some slight data manipulation here, but Wallner’s 16.1% barrel rate is tied with Mike Trout’s for seventh in the majors among hitters with at least 900 plate appearances since 2023. The guys ahead of him: Aaron Judge (26.2%), Shohei Ohtani (21.5%), Giancarlo Stanton (19.1%), Kyle Schwarber (17.7%), Juan Soto (17%), and Oneil Cruz (16.2%) – elite company, indeed. Wallner hit 22 home runs in 104 games (392 PA) last season, and has 30+ HR upside if he can stay off the IL. His batting average won’t be helpful, but he may throw in a few stolen bases and is one of the rare late-round boons for fantasy squads that might be power deficient.

Cedric Mullins had that magical 30-30 (HR-SB) season in 2021. In his past four seasons, he has swiped at least 30 bags twice, and has averaged 16.5 home runs. He has been a batting average killer though – .228 since 2023. A fair expectation for Mullins in his first season with the Rays would be 12-15 homers, 25 stolen bases, 100-130 R/RBI (combined) and another season with a sub-.240 average.

Jung Hoo Lee has the highest batting average upside of the cluster. He hit .319 in his first 30 games of 2025, went through a rough three-month stretch from May through July (.218), then hit .306 from August 1 until the end of the season. He is capable of hitting .290+ over a full season. His only positive roto category contribution was runs scored (73 in 150 games). He is a solid floor contributor, but you won’t see many projection models bless him with anything more than 10 HR and 10 SB. His allure lies within his potential batting average contributions.

Jasson Domínguez, Cam Smith, and Carson Benge are the three young, upside guys. All would project for double-digit homers and swipes with 500+ plate appearances. Dominguez’s distribution would lie higher on the SBs, though he is capable of 20-plus homers if he earns consistent playing time. Domínguez sported a 49.6% hard-hit rate and stole 23 bases on 28 attempts in 429 plate appearances last season. Smith and Benge have 20-HR, 15-SB potential though neither is likely to get there in 2026. Benge is certainly intriguing as a toolsy prospect with the eventual possibility of being a five-category contributor. Note that he only has 103 plate appearances at Triple-A and he struggled there (.178/.272/.311) after crushing it with a .300+ AVG and .400+ OBP in 92 games at High-A and Double-A.

Context of Team Offense

The best team context here is Domínguez’s with the Yankees, but that is if he is able to earn consistent playing time. Wallner’s team context is sneaky as a middle of the order power hitter, though his counting category contributions hinge on Byron Buxton, Luke Keaschall and Royce Lewis staying healthy, which may be asking a lot. Based on home parks, divisions and other hitters in the lineup, the other four from this cluster have a neutral context.

Verdict (with value grades, A-F)

Jasson Domínguez (A-) may have been overpriced in the 125-150 ADP range last season, but he is being greatly undervalued this draft season, at half the cost, because of lack of role clarity. Dominguez is pushing to crack the Opening Day roster and deserves it, but it would be better if he got the reps in Triple-A. Make the low-cost investment in Dominguez late in your drafts if your roster doesn’t have a bench stash already, and you believe that his everyday role with the Yankees is simply a matter of when.

Jung Hoo Lee (B+) won’t wow us in any category other than potentially batting average. He has a high floor and could easily outproduce his draft cost with another 600+ plate appearances. Perhaps he surprises us with a bit more than what models are projecting.

Matt Wallner (B+) is the ideal power-boost option towards the end of drafts, specifically for folks whose roster construction feel light on power after 20 rounds. I’m less worried about a platoon split than oblique issues or other ailments resurfacing.

Cam Smith (B) and Carson Benge (B-) have the widest range of potential outcomes. Spending a chunk of the season isn’t off the table for either of them, but less so for Smith. Benge rocked a 81% contact rate, and despite last season’s struggles with consistency at the plate in Triple-A, he is less likely than Smith to tank us in the batting average category. Smith could fall into a platoon with Loperfido or Cole, but this is unlikely to happen for a prolonged time period.

Cedric Mullins (C+) may seem like a sneaky and savvy late-round option due to his HR-SB upside, but Tropicana Field is a downgrade from Oriole Park and his projected batting average is a massive detractor to his overall projected value.

Last weekend, the largest national fantasy baseball contest kicked off – the NFBC Main Event. For those unfamiliar, it’s a 30-round, 15-team, 5×5 roto contest with an $1,800 entry fee. This year, 855 teams will be drafted (57 leagues), and only one person will win the overall grand prize of $200,000. Most of these leagues are drafted online. A dozen or so are drafted in person, in Las Vegas, on the weekend of March 20.

I’ve been to Vegas for the Main Event every year since 2014, except for the COVID-shortened season. It’s an incredible experience filled with camaraderie among diehard fantasy baseball enthusiasts, many of us long-time friends. Many of the attendees are incredibly sharp, skilled managers, though not everyone who enters and attends is a fantasy savant. As math would have it, every league has 12 losers, since only the top three cash. For the most part, and of importance to fantasy baseball managers everywhere, is that Main Event drafters are highly invested and motivated. The draft boards and ADP movement in these leagues is worth looking at closely. We can extract actionable takeaways from such highly invested players that can assist with our roto drafts, no matter the entry fee.

Main Event drafters are human. They can be swayed by spring training production and swept away in ADP helium, a chain reaction of pushing players higher and higher in drafts, far beyond their November-February market prices. Last March, Main Event helium rose Cristopher Sánchez by several rounds, from a 175 ADP in January to 101 by Vegas, including a min pick of 63. Obviously, that worked out. A similar thing happened with Nick Pivetta, Robbie Ray, Kris Bubic, but also with Will Warren, Hayden Birdsong, and a slew of out-of-nowhere “closers” who bombed – Luke Jackson, Jordan Romano, and Mike Clevinger. And who can forget the rise of red-hot Astros outfielder Cam Smith? We call it helium because it’s literally akin to a balloon taking you up, up, and away – oftentimes directly into the scorching sun.

One interesting nuance of the Main Event: since there is overall prize money on the line as well, and we’re competing against 800+ others, it does not behoove us to punt roto categories – specifically, pitching ones. One adage is always true here: pitching always gets pushed up in the Main Event. Elite ratios (ERA, WHIP) are a scarce commodity; hence, most NFBC managers focus on anchoring their teams with strong pitching to avoid the inevitable blowups when chasing mediocre two-start pitchers in FAAB during the season. With strong planning, execution, and a bit of luck, we can punt saves in our standalone home leagues. This strategy rarely works in the Main Events, where roto categorical balance is vital and where league-mates research incessantly to make competitive bids every FAAB period for 27 weeks. Teams at the top of the Main Event standings last year didn’t win and do well in pitching because they drafted breakouts like Sánchez, Bryan Woo and/or Hunter Brown alone. Many of them used a first or second round pick on Tarik Skubal, Paul Skenes, or Garrett Crochet and drafted Woo and Pivetta, or Brown and Nathan Eovaldi, and picked up Trevor Rogers in-season for pennies on the dollar in May. A decade ago, the fantasy world would scoff at the idea of drafting starting pitchers or closers early. In the Main Event world in recent years, no one has besmirched their fellow competitors for drafting Skubal with the first pick of the draft or the elite, top closer in the second round.

Many of us enjoy digging deep into pitcher profiles and advanced stats at FanGraphs and other sites, hoping to discover prospect pitchers who are ready to break out, or undervalued “sleeper” pitchers the market is currently undervaluing. We want to be first on the next big thing. We want to draft him before others, and if we can’t, sometimes we’ll grab one of those helium balloons and set some min picks.

Biggest SP Risers

With the first five 2026 Main Event drafts in the books, the fresh ADPs are available for all to peruse (select ‘Main Event’ in the dropdown). The original plan for this piece was to compare the last 10 days of NFBC Draft Champions ADP (50 rounds, no FAAB) to these first five Main Event drafts to see who the biggest risers and fallers were at each position. After a quick visit with my good friend XLOOKUP and building out some comparison tables, my focus (and impetus for this piece) was inspired by the massive helium with starting pitchers after 200 ADP. This is where the action was at, with blasts from our past like Kyle Harrison, Taj Bradley,  Luis Gil in all his Ricky Vaughn-esque glory, and even the legend himself, Justin Verlander, who is back with the Tigers.

I sorted and discovered the starting pitchers whose Main Event ADP is at least three rounds higher than where it was just last week in the 50-round Draft Champions format. Pitchers in this group have risen exorbitantly over the last week for various reasons: increased spring velocity, introducing an effective new pitch, having a productive (in some cases, dominant) spring, and the increasing likelihood of an Opening Day rotation spot and aspirations of massive profit from a late-round selection.

The table below consists of 25 starting pitchers – mostly from the middle and late rounds – whose ADPs have risen by at least three rounds (45 picks) from early-March DCs to these first five Main Events. I’ve listed ADPs and their pick differences, the number of 15-team rounds increased by, and the percentage increase.

Justin Wrobleski | River Ryan, Los Angeles Dodgers

If a pitcher has a pulse, wears Dodger Blue, and has a shot at the rotation, expect helium to ensue. Blake Snell will likely spend the first month of the season on the injured list. Most drafters don’t trust Roki Sasaki, whose ADP has fallen from the the low 200’s to the mid 300’s over the past two months. Manager Dave Roberts says he will be in the rotation, which means there will be at least one rotation spot open for Wrobleski or Ryan. Both have been solid in spring – Wrobleski has 0 ER, 0 BB, 4 K in 6 IP and Ryan has a 7:3 K:BB with one earned run allowed, also in six innings. Ryan is the more exciting and dynamic pitcher, but both his and Wrobleski’s ADPs remain close to each other until more definitive news is presented. Whoever is officially announced as the guy joining the rotation should see a spike of 100+ draft slots. For our shallower home leagues, these are names to monitor, but not specifically target.

Both are beneficiaries of the Roki Sasaki spring rollercoaster ride. As the market continues to lose market confidence in Sasaki and Blake Snell’s timetable continues to be pushed, Wrobleski and Ryan’s preseason

Mick Abel | Taj Bradley, Minnesota Twins

Both Abel and Bradley had horrific 2025 seasons and were mostly off our radars this draft season. Bradley had success at this level before, with the Rays in 2024, but owns a career 4.86 ERA in 385 innings. Abel was a promising first-round draft pick of the Phillies whose stock plummeted after his rough 39-inning debut last season (6.23, 1.51). Abel has 13 punchouts and no walks allowed in 10 spring innings. Bradley has a 19:5 K:BB with 7 ER in 14 innings. Given Abel’s pedigree, he is likely to rise up ADP at a higher rate than Bradley, depending on how his next spring starts go. Nevertheless, both pitch for a declining Twins team and run support may be tough to come by. Abel and Bradley’s high ADPs in the Main Event are tough pills to swallow and it might be best to not chase either one.

Kyle Harrison | Brandon Sproat, Milwaukee Brewers

With Freddy Peralta traded and Quinn Priester dealing with nerve issues in his wrist and starting the season on the IL, opportunities arise for the Brewers’ newest, talented young arms, Harrison and Sproat. Both are projected to begin the season in the rotation, though Sproat’s inclusion may depend on the health status of Logan Henderson. Harrison’s ADP has ballooned as it gets close to Round 20 of 15-team Main Events. Sproat’s current price is a bit more palatable, though it too will likely rise over the next two weeks. Both are former impact prospects and familiar names. Fantasy managers usually feel comfortable investing in Milwaukee starters, and this does feel like a great opportunity for both Harrison and Sproat. Harrison is a strong end-game target in shallower non-NFBC leagues as well.

Dustin May | Richard Fitts | Matthew Liberatore, St. Louis Cardinals

It really is comical how much preseason baseball influences the market. Two months ago, fantasy analysts (myself included) preached to avoid Cardinals pitchers outright. Fast forward to March, and the helium begins impacting every potential starting pitcher who looks good in the spring. Liberatore had somewhat of a breakout season in 2025, producing respectably in 29 starts, posting an above-average walk rate of 6.2%. May has teased us for years and there is no doubt he will draw many drafters back in. May finally threw more than 60 innings in a season last year (132.1 between two teams), but the results were poor (4.96 ERA, 4.47 SIERA, 1.42 WHIP. The most important thing to monitor with May this spring is his control. He walked batters at a 9.6% clip last year and has three walks in 6.2 innings so far this spring. Fitts is throwing hard (touching 99 mph) and having a nice spring. It’s possible that he beats out Kyle Leahy for the fifth spot, but is more likely to begin the season in Triple-A. Of the three, Liberatore is the one I’d want to target in deeper drafts. For 12-team drafts, stay away from all three.

Grant Holmes | J.R. Ritchie, Atlanta Braves

Traditionally, Atlanta Braves rotations have been a strong source of March helium – AJ Smith-Shawver anyone? With Spencer Schwellenbach and Hurston Waldrep sidelined for a while, opportunities to snag rotation spots have risen. Holmes is all but locked into a spot, especially after a masterful nine-strikeout performance against the Pirates on Thursday. Holmes did not allow a hit in five innings. Holmes boasted a 25% strikeout rate (22 starts, one relief appearance), though his 11% walk rate was a huge issue. Holmes is capable of reducing it to the 9% range, though don’t expect a helpful WHIP from him. As long as Holmes is healthy, he will be in this rotation. His 358 ADP is very reasonable, though it’s certainly going up after that masterful performance. Ritchie is a stud prospect who returned from Tommy John in June of 2024 and had a strong season in the minors in 2025 (140 IP – 2.64 ERA – 1.01 WHIP – 24.8% K – 9.6% BB). Though he is likely to start the year in Triple-A, he is certainly ready to dominate in the Majors. He is one spring injury away from earning a rotation spot before Opening Day. Both Holmes and Ritchie are strong targets in deeper formats and in the Main Event.

Wrapping It Up

There are other intriguing risers like Shane McClanahan, though we must always proceed with caution chasing massive ADP jumps with pitchers like him and Joe Musgrove who are working their way back after long delays. It’s difficult to field competitive fantasy squads if they’re loaded with injury risks and promising prospects. Hey, it’s great that Cade Cavalli is healthy and looks fantastic this spring. But there’s no chance I’m going to chase a Washington Nationals’ starter into the top 250 ADP when there are oodles of viable, safer options in this draft range. For every few risers, there are fallers. Sometimes players fall because we’re too dialed into small spring samples and missing the forest for the trees.

Though some of the best fantasy players around play the NFBC Main Event, we must remember that no one can predict the future. We can still take occasional risks, but they must be calculated and logical ones. Taking a shot on the Braves and Brewers pitchers who have been rising feel like a sharper move than chasing ADP helium on lesser talented starters who aren’t guaranteed rotation spots and play on worse teams. Good starting pitching is a key to success in all roto formats, but chasing helium blindly will often carry our balloon directly into getting burnt. Stay cool out there.

“Don’t it always seem to go, you don’t know what you got ‘til it’s gone.”

Joni Mitchell may not be a roto savant, but even she might agree that the best part of the fantasy baseball season is research-and-draft season. Every day, from February until Opening Day, is so incredibly thrilling – nonstop spring training news, draft rankings adjustments, and player pool deep-dives – there’s always some rabbit hole of research to go down. As we continue studying and gaining confidence in the fresh player pool and a new year’s ADP, more questions arise, and the more work there is to be done.

Whether in NFBC or best ball contests, high-volume early drafters subconsciously form bad habits in draft rooms. We get too comfortable targeting and drafting the same players over and over. Conversely, we avoid players who have burned us in previous seasons and those we have some subjective bias against. Rarely do we deep dive and reassess those players because we’ve already made up our minds. That’s why it’s crucial to explore every nook and cranny of a positional tier. We have all fallen victim to draft room paralysis, where a decision between several similarly ranked shortstops or starting pitchers becomes gut-wrenching when we’re on the clock. This preseason column aims to help with those tough calls. We will explore some of the most confusing ADP clusters, by position, beyond the simple “I need to boost my batting average, so I’m taking this guy.”

Let’s dive into these ADP pockets logically and systematically, reviewing four analytical components of the players within each cluster.

• Playing Time (and Role)
• Health/Durability
• Skills/Categorical Contributions
• Context of Team Offense

ADP Cluster: Middle Round Corner Infielders

ADP from 17 NFBC 12-team Online Championships (OC) drafts over the last five days (March 5 – March 9)

• Sal Stewart, 1B, Cincinnati Reds (ADP: 173.1)
• Royce Lewis, 3B, Minnesota Twins (175.4)
• Alec Burleson, 1B/OF, St. Louis Cardinals (177.5)
• Spencer Torkelson, 1B, Detroit Tigers (183.4)
• Addison Barger, 3B/OF, Toronto Blue Jays (184.2)
• Jonathan Aranda, 1B, Tampa Bay Rays (190.2)
• Kazuma Okamoto, 3B, Toronto Blue Jays (193.4)

These are the seven corner infielders clustered in the Rounds 15 and 16 range of NFBC OCs. Right above them are Matt Chapman (157.8) and Willson Contreras (166.7), and right below them are Christian Walker (210.2) and Munetaka Murakami (211). Rookie prospects, multi-position eligible guys, injury risk, big power – this cluster has it all! Let’s dig into this group using our four defined pillars.

Playing Time (and Role)

The best place to start is with projected playing time. FGDC and OOPSY have identical playing time for all players, as do THE BAT and ATC. Since I manage playing time at FTN, I included my own in the average projection across three sets.

Addison Barger projects for the lightest workload due to expectations of mostly being a strong-side platoon hitter. He projects to bat cleanup against righties. Last season, Barger mostly batted fifth (109 PA), second (107) and fourth (100).

Sal Stewart has 18 games of big league experience. He is having a strong spring (.318/.423/.636, 2 HR, 2 SB in 26 PA) and projects to be an everyday bat for the Reds. At approximately 117 games, it’s likely we are all under-projecting him. Stewart has been one of the biggest ADP risers among corner infielders, jumping two rounds from February (Rd 17) to March (Rd 15). Stewart should start the season off hitting fifth behind Elly De La Cruz and Eugenio Suárez.

Royce Lewis’ 514 average projected plate appearances may be generous considering his woeful health history. His 403 PA last season (106 games) is a career high. Lewis is expected to hit somewhere between fifth and seventh to start the season, but could move up to third or fourth if he stays healthy and remains productive.

Kazuma Okamoto is expected to be an everyday hitter for the Blue Jays. He was quite the model of health in the NPB, averaging 589 plate appearances in his first seven seasons (2018-2024). Okamoto missed half of 2025 with a left elbow injury following a collision with a batter who was running down the first base line. Roster Resource projects Okamoto to start the season hitting seventh. He could work his way up into the top five, but Blue Jays manager John Schneider will likely utilize lefties (Barger, Daulton Varsho, Jesús Sánchez) to hit between their impact righties, projected leadoff man George Springer and no. 3 hitter, Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

The St. Louis Cardinals’ Opening Day lineup is very much a work in progress. Lars Nootbaar won’t be ready in time and Iván Herrera has been dealing with knee inflammation. Rookie infielder JJ Wetherholt is essentially a lock to make the club, with a prominent role. Left-handed hitting Alec Burleson is a vital middle-of-the-order bat for the Cardinals who will start every day. Burleson greatly improved against left-handed pitching last season, albeit small samples: a 44 wRC+ in 2024 (133 PA) to a 98 wRC+ in 2025 (118 PA). Burleson should hit third to start the season.

Jonathan Aranda was having a breakout season, slashing .316/.393/.489 with 14 HR and 59 RBI in 106 games (422 PA) before fracturing his left wrist on July 31 in a collision with the human wall known as Giancarlo Stanton. Aranda crushed righties (.203 ISO), but struggled to hit for power against lefties (.071 ISO, 1 HR in 98 PA). He did make slight gains against lefties overall though, earning free passes at a 12.2% clip, producing a .378 OBP and 111 wRC+. Aranda should continue facing lefty starters, though he’d likely hit lower in the lineup against them. Against righties, Aranda should bat third.

Former first overall MLB draft pick from 2020, Spencer Torkelson, played in 155 games (649 PA) in 2025 and 159 games (684 PA) in 2023. His 2024 season (92 games, 381 PA) was derailed by an inability to hit baseball and spending nearly half the season in Triple-A. Riley Greene and Torkelson are their most productive hitters. My projected plate appearances for Torkelson are low and I’ll have to readjust for the next update. He is very likely to earn real-life plate appearances closer to where Jason R.R. Martinez (FGDC) and Jordan Rosenblum (OOPSY) have him.

Health/Durability

There are very few concerns of health and durability in this group, except for Royce Lewis, who has been dealing with soft tissue and lower body ailments since becoming a major leaguer. Like Torkelson, Lewis was drafted first overall (2017), though he did not make his MLB debut until 2022. Lewis tore his ACL in 2022 and again in 2023, playing in just 58 games in his official rookie year. He also spent time on the IL that year with hamstring and oblique injuries. He missed half the 2024 season due to quad and abdominal injuries. Last season, he was slowed by two more hamstring injuries – one in late March and the other mid June. His lower body must have been feeling swell when he returned, because he stole nine bases on 10 attempts in the final month (98 PA) after swiping just three in his first 301 plate appearances. Lewis had yet another scare early this spring (side tightness) but was able to return a few days later. In some other dimension where he’s healthy, Lewis is a top 25 hitter, but in this league, his laundry list of injuries have rightfully kept his ADP and fantasy price down.

The rest of this cluster have mostly stayed healthy and have shown durability. Sal Stewart had surgery on his right wrist in 2024 while in High-A following an off-field accident. Alec Burleson had a couple of quick IL stints in 2023 (left thumb fracture) and 2025 (right wrist inflammation). Otherwise, this is a fairly sturdy group.

Skills/Categorical Contributions

Below are average 12-team roto values for the 2026 season using three models. Note that ATC is an aggregate system that may include OOPSY as part of their formula mix, but we’ll use OOPSY separately since their projected playing time is different than ATC’s.

Alec Burleson comes in as the best value of this group, fueled primarily by a projected batting average in the .270s.  Burleson hit .290 last season and boasts a respectable 83.4% career contact rate. His power metrics last year were around league-average (91 mph EV, 9.4% barrel, 43% hard-hit), but he has hit 18 and 21 home runs the last two seasons, and projects for around 20 this season. He’s the toughest guy in this cluster to punch out (career 13.6%). With 600+ plate appearances for the first time ever, Burleson can set career highs in runs and RBIs, producing 80 or more in each category. He may steal a few bases as well. He swiped five on six attempts in 2025 and nine on 13 attempts in 2024.

Jonathan Aranda hit 14 home runs in 422 plate appearances and flashed above-average power metrics (93 EV, 12.8% BRL, 54% HH). His contact rate (77%) was around league average, though he hit .316 with a .291 xBA. Models project his 2026 batting average in the .260-.270 range, a fair regression when we factor in Aranda’s high BABIP (.409), which inflated that average. He likely won’t hit .274 against lefties in a larger sample this season. OOPSY projects Aranda for .249 batting average, and that is why OOPSY’s value for Aranda is low relative to the other two models.

Kazuma Okamoto is the toughest of the group to project, as the 29-year-old will make MLB debut after eight seasons in the NPB. Models project Okamoto for a walk 9-10% walk rate and a 18-20% strikeout rate. OOPSY is least bullish on his strikeout rate (24.8%). With 550+ plate appearances, Okamoto should hit around 20-25 homers with around 135-165 combined R/RBI, with the distribution between the runs and runs batted in depending on where in the batting order he settles. He doesn’t run and isn’t expected to help in stolen bases.

Spencer Torkelson and Addison Barger are the two best bets for above-average power production of this group. Torkelson hit 31 home runs in each of his two full seasons. Barger hit 21 in 502 PAs last season and boasted an elite hard-hit rate (51%), a 91.7 mph average exit velocity and a 116.5 max EV. Barger flashed a .231 ISO against righties (115 wRC+) and a .120 (69 wRC+) against lefties.

Before 2025, Lewis rocked an elite frequency of round-trippers (16.6 AB/HR). He managed to hit only 13 of them last season (403 PA), which took his AB/HR up to around 20. His career EV (89.1), barrel rate (10%), and hard-hit rate (39.8%) are league-average. It’s why we won’t see any model project 25+ homers even though we know he’s capable of it if he stays healthy.

Sal Stewart produced well in Double-A (329 PA) and Triple-A (165 PA) last season: 78 R – 20 HR – 80 RBI – 17 SB – .309. He is one of the few fantasy first basemen who can produce double-digit swipes. Despite having fewer than 60 career plate appearances in the majors, Stewart feels like the corner with the most upside in this group and the one most likely to move up into the ADP tier above this one. On February 12, Mark Sheldon of MLB.com reported that Stewart shed 26 pounds during the offseason.

Context of Team Offense

One thing in common is that none of these corners play on elite offenses – no one here is on the Dodgers, Yankees, Mets or Orioles. The Blue Jays scored the fourth most runs last year (798) and could be a top 10 run-producing crew again, but someone will have to step into Bo Bichette’s shoes. The Jays were 23rd in runs in 2024 when Bichette missed half the season. Okamoto and another year with Barger should help, but this lineup hinges on the consistency of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and they’ll need both George Springer and Daulton Varsho to stay healthy. Rogers Centre’s Park Factor is neutral (100).

The best offensive context among this group is that of the Reds. Great American Ball Park is an elite hitters’ park, ranking third in overall Park Factor (103) and second in HR Park Factor (123). Stewart currently projects to bat fifth behind Elly De La Cruz and Eugenio Suárez. It’s a righty-heavy lineup that Stewart can earn full-time at-bats in. It would not be shocking to see him smash his aggregate RBI projection of 66. Stewart had a strong success rate in stolen bases (84%, 27-of-32) and should have the green light so long as Elly and Suárez aren’t clogging up the base paths.

Comerica Park in Detroit is considered a pitchers’ park, but it’s Park Factor is neutral (100) as is its HR factor (99). Torkelson has 42 career road homers and 38 at Comerica in a similar number of plate appearances – 1,040 at home, 1,078 on the road. He typically whiffs at a 26-27 percent clip and produces substandard batting averages – .240, .219 and .233 over his first three seasons. Torkelson doesn’t have much lineup protection batting fifth with guys like Wenceel Pérez and Colt Keith behind him. The projected top-four of rookie Kevin McGonigle, Gleyber Torres, Kerry Carpenter (vs. RHP) and Riley Greene looks great on paper and the Tigers are favored to win the AL Central.

Aranda, Lewis and Burleson are on some of the weaker projected offensive teams in the league. Burleson and Aranda are both expected to hit third in their respective lineups. Lewis could work his way up with steady production and just staying healthy. The 2-5 after Byron Buxton looks exceptionally weak: Josh Bell, Luke Keaschall, Trevor Larnach (4th vs. RHP) and Victor Caratini.

Verdict (with value grades, A-F)

Alec Burleson (B) is the best all-around value and has the highest floor. He gets an extra boost to his value for his dual (1B-OF) eligibility.

Kazuma Okamoto (B) feels like a risky proposition considering he’s never played in the majors and will have much to adjust to. He’s the one guy in this tier I’m most confident will produce a profit at his price tag.

Sal Stewart (B-) is the most volatile of the bunch as a rookie with very little big league experience. He has arguably the most upside and offers additional value in the stolen base category.  He’s the hitter most likely to surge into the tier above.

Jonathan Aranda (B-) officially broke out last season and has an above-average floor, but we should be careful projecting a plus batting average and assuming that he will play against left-handed pitchers all season.

Spencer Torkelson (C+) has massive batting average downside, but makes up for it with strong power production (30 HR, 85 RBI) for a hitter in this range. If you’re a BA snob, draft other sources of power.

Royce Lewis (C+) is incredibly polarizing because of his massive prospect pedigree and some epic production stretches that balance out with legitimate concerns about his ability to stay on the field.

Addison Barger (C) exhibited plus power against righties in his breakout season. I’m lower on him than the market and haven’t been drafting him because I prefer other corner infielders in this range. His struggles against lefties likely won’t go away this season, and it’s more difficult to roster platoon bats in shallow redraft leagues.

“Don’t it always seem to go, you don’t know what you got ‘til it’s gone.”

Joni Mitchell may not be a roto savant, but even she might agree that the best part of the fantasy baseball season is research-and-draft season. Every day, from February until Opening Day, is so incredibly thrilling – nonstop spring training news, draft rankings adjustments, and player pool deep-dives – there’s always some rabbit hole of research to go down. As we continue studying and gaining confidence in the fresh player pool and a new year’s ADP, more questions arise, and the more work there is to be done.

Whether in NFBC or best ball contests, high-volume early drafters subconsciously form bad habits in draft rooms. We get too comfortable targeting and drafting the same players over and over. Conversely, we avoid players who have burned us in previous seasons and those we have some subjective bias against. Rarely do we deep dive and reassess those players because we’ve already made up our minds. That’s why it’s crucial to explore every nook and cranny of a positional tier. We have all fallen victim to draft room paralysis, where a decision between several similarly ranked shortstops or starting pitchers becomes gut-wrenching when we’re on the clock. This preseason column aims to help with those tough calls. We will explore some of the most confusing ADP clusters, by position, beyond the simple “I need to boost my batting average, so I’m taking this guy.”

Let’s dive into these ADP pockets logically and systematically, reviewing four analytical components of the players within each cluster. Since this specific article’s topic is starting pitchers, the components have been slightly adjusted:

Health and Durability
Skills: Arsenal, Stuff, Velocity, Command, Control
Roto Ratio Expectations (ERA, WHIP)
Team Context: Defense, Bullpen, Run Support (Wins)

ADP Cluster 4: Starting Pitchers, Rounds 18-20

These are starting pitchers drafted in the 205-240 ADP range in the NFBC Online Championship (OC) over the last seven days.

• Aaron Nola, Philadelphia Phillies (ADP 212)
• Joe Musgrove, San Diego Padres (213)
• Jack Flaherty, Detroit Tigers (214)
• Matthew Boyd, Chicago Cubs (215)
• Ryan Weathers, New York Yankees (218)
• Andrew Abbott, Cincinnati Reds (227)
• Zac Gallen, Arizona Diamondbacks (229)
• Jack Leiter, Texas Rangers (239)

Health and Durability

Five of the eight are seasoned veterans over the age of 30 – Nola, Musgrove, Flaherty, Boyd, and Gallen. At 35, Boyd is the elder statesman of the group. Abbott (26) has averaged 25 starts over his first three seasons. Leiter was a rookie last season, starting 29 games. Weathers has been in the league since 2021, the year he set his career high for innings pitched (94.2). Weathers turned 26 in December, and Leiter will turn 26 in April.

Aaron Nola has been the poster boy of durability over the last decade. Since 2017, his first full season, no pitcher has thrown more innings than (1,527). Last season was his first time on the IL, missing just over three months with a right ankle injury. Before that, he only spent two brief stints on the COVID-IL, in 2021 and 2022.

Zac Gallen missed three-plus months in 2021 with various injuries (fractured forearm, elbow sprain, hamstring strain) and one month with a hamstring injury in 2024. Since 2022, Gallen is third in innings pitched (734) behind Logan Webb (820) and Framber Valdez (768).

Jack Flaherty has averaged nearly 29 starts over the last three seasons, despite a relatively low innings-per-season average of 155.2, though Flaherty hasn’t been on the IL since 2022.

Andrew Abbott missed six weeks with a shoulder injury in 2024 and nearly three weeks with a shoulder strain in 2025.

Before Matthew Boyd’s 179.2 innings in 2025, he spent 380 days on the IL since 2021, and last pitched a full season in 2019. Boyd dealt with a variety of serious arm-related injuries and underwent Tommy John surgery in 2023.

Joe Musgrove missed half the season in 2023 (fractured big toe, right shoulder inflammation), half the season in 2024 (elbow), and all of last with Tommy John. Musgrove had his first bullpen session last August, has no strict innings cap for 2026, and sat at 94-95 with his fastball in his first exhibition game, against Team Great Britain on Wednesday.

Ryan Weathers has spent nearly 250 days on the IL over the last two seasons with finger, forearm and lat injuries. Weathers returned in the final month of 2025 to mixed results, but flashed strong velocity gains. Now with the New York Yankees, Weathers has our fantasy juices flowing in a late-February exhibition game where he topped out at 99.8 mph with his four-seam fastball.

Here are Jeff Zimmerman’s health grades in Eno Sarris’ pitching piece on The Athletic from February 3:

• Andrew Abbott (90%)
• Zac Gallen (90%)
• Jack Flaherty (86%)
• Jack Leiter (84%)
• Aaron Nola (81%)
• Matthew Boyd (72%)
• Ryan Weathers (65%)
• Joe Musgrove (N/A)

If I were to bet on anyone to pitch 180+ innings, it’s Nola, followed by Gallen. Musgrove won’t be restricted, but I’d be shocked if he threw more than 155 innings (which is OOPSY’s projection). ATC and THE BAT project 133, FGDC, ZiPS and Steamer are between 156-159 and I’ve got him for 150 at FTN. I have Nola for 181, and Gallen and Leiter in the 170s. Abbott, Boyd and Flaherty are in the 160s. Weathers (148, which might be generous) is the biggest red flag, given his health history and substantial uptick in velocity.

Skills: Arsenal, Stuff, Velocity, Command, Control

Below is a two-year sample for our cluster. SIERA is my preferred ERA indicator, and I’ve included and ERA-SIERA differential. Note that Abbott’s -1.21 differential signified being the “luckiest” of the group. Last season, that differential was 1.33 (2.87 ERA, 4.20 SIERA). Aaron Nola’s 0.63 differential was the unluckiest. He posted a 4.35 ERA where his SIERA of 3.72 was nearly in line with his career ERA (3.74 through 2024). Strikeout percentage and walk percentage are the preeminent stats for pitcher analysis. The various groundball rates are interesting to review as well. Notice the odd man out there – Abbott at 32.7%.

There are no truly elite control arms here, though Joe Musgrove (career 6% BB) and Aaron Nola (6.4%) are most reliable in this regard. Jack Leiter and Ryan Weathers have the nastiest stuff and throw the hardest. Leiter’s control has been his Kryptonite throughout his minor league days. Harnessing and reducing it will be the key for the former second-overall draft pick to fully break out and provide the most fantasy profit among starters in this range. Rangers’ new pitching coach Jordan Tiegs has been with the organization since 2019 and is considered to be a key driver in Leiter evolving as a big-league pitcher. It surely doesn’t hurt having veteran hurlers Jacob deGrom and Nathan Eovaldi in your corner.

All of these arms except Musgrove rely primarily on their four-seam fastball (between 48-51% usage in 2025). Musgrove has the most diverse pitch mix. He gradually increased his cutter and slider usage over his last four seasons with the Padres. Flaherty is primarily a fastball-curveball-slider guy. His curve was outstanding in 2024 (.175 wOBA, .219 SLG, 40% K). He upped his usage on it in 2025 (from 21% to 25%) and punched batters out at a 41% clip, though it did not fare quite as well –  a .281 wOBA, .380 SLG.

Roto Ratio Expectations (ERA, WHIP)

Projections models and personal opinions will all differ, but the one thing we all seem to agree on is that Andrew Abbott is due for some major ratio regression. Abbott posted that magical 2.87 ERA last season, after two seasons of 3.77. FanGraphs models project ERAs between 4.17 (FGDC) and 4.65 (THE BAT X). The lone outlier is ZiPS at 3.80. The most baffling stats were Abbott’s home splits. The fly ball-leaning lefty managed a 2.39 ERA in his home park – extra hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park. Abbott did reduce his walk rate last season (from 8.9% to 6.3%), but remained a below-average in strikeouts (19.5% in 2024, 21.8% in 2025). His WHIP is likely to land somewhere in the 1.23-1.28 range. He posted a 1.15 WHIP in 2025, 1.30 in 2024 and 1.32 in 2023.

The usually dependable Zac Gallen was a tough player to roster last year. Hitters bashed him to the tune of a 5.40 ERA before the All-Star break, which he cleaned up in the final 2.5 months (3.97). He also served up home runs at an above-average rate (1.45 HR/9) after four consecutive seasons in the 0.73-0.94 range. His velocity didn’t drop last season, but his strikeout rate did – 21.5% after four seasons of 26%. Gallen is a difficult arm to project for 2026 as there is a wide band for ERA and WHIP. A 3.50/1.15 season probably wouldn’t surprise us. Neither would 4.25/1.25. My personal expectations for him are right in the middle.

Jack Leiter throws certifiable heat. His 3.86 ERA was respectable, but a 1.28 WHIP, partially fueled by a 10.8% walk rate, was not. Ryan Weathers throws just as hard, but has done a better job at limiting free passes, keeping his walk rate under 7% over his 125 innings since 2024. These are the two highest-upside pitchers in the cluster, though each come with the most risk and the risk with Weathers is higher, especially as his draft price continues to rise.

Matthew Boyd managed a splendid 3.20 ERA despite higher peripherals (4.09 SIERA, 4.22 xFIP). Boyd was especially solid in his home starts:

• Home: 89.2 IP – .257 wOBA – 2.51 ERA – 0.90 WHIP – 23.2% K – 4.1% BB
• Road: 90 IP – .315 wOBA – 3.90 ERA – 1.28 WHIP – 19.9% K – 7.4% BB

Boyd was mostly disaster proof before the All-Star break, allowing no more than three earned runs in 18 of 19 starts. He allowed four or more in six of his final 12 starts. He did not allow more than five runs in any of his starts, and there’s something to be said about drafting boring, late-round veteran arms who reduce our fantasy staff’s volatility. I wouldn’t be surprised if Boyd followed up with another sub-3.50 ERA, but it’s most likely to end up in the 3.65-3.90 range. We can work with that.

Joe Musgrove has the highest ratio upside of the group. His home park is a hit-suppressor factory and he’ll line up for several starts against subpar offenses in his division (COL, ARZ). Among starting pitchers with 500 or more innings pitched since 2021, Musgrove’s 3.20 ERA is tied for ninth lowest. Just stay healthy, Joe.

Team Context: Defense, Bullpen, Run Support (Wins)

Poor Jack Flaherty finished last season with an 8-15 record for a team that was 12 games over .500 and almost won their division. Matthew Boyd’s Cubs won five more games (92 to 87) and Boyd started 31 games just as Flaherty did, but ended up with better run support overall and a 14-8 record. Reviewing Flaherty’s game logs helps paint the picture. He served up at least four earned runs in 9-of-31 starts, including three horrific outings (7 ER vs. CIN, 8 ER at TB, 8 ER vs. KC). The Cubs boasted a top-tier defense last season and project for much of the same in 2026. The Tigers are about league average. This information adds additional insight to their differences in the wins category last season, and likely portends our 2026 expectations.

Aaron Nola would be the safest bet for most wins among this cluster. Ironically, high win totals have eluded the him. Despite six consecutive seasons between 32 and 34 starts, Nola has won more than 14 games in a season once – 17 in 2018. Among pitchers in this cluster, Nola’s Phillies have the highest projected win total (89.5), and the Cubs are next (88.5). The Diamondbacks have the lowest (79.5), and it doesn’t help that the Diamondbacks bullpen was a dumpster fire last year (third worst) and don’t expect A.J. Puk and Justin Martinez back anytime soon. It’s doubtful that Kevin Ginkel and Paul Sewald hold down the fort in the meanwhile. Wins are the least projectable standard roto category, so we’ll all probably just laugh about it come October if Abbott wins 16 of 33 starts and Nola just 9 of 31.

Recommendation (with target grade)

Aaron Nola (B) – Buy back in on the “King of Even Years”. Plus strikeouts, a low walk rate, decent defense, and good run support from a team with a high win total.

Andrew Abbott (D) – Tough home park for pitchers, a tough hitting division, below-average strikeouts, and the Regression Monster knocking on his door. I’ll pass.

Matthew Boyd (C) – Ceiling is low, but the floor is stable. On a team with a strong offense and top-notch defense of mostly grounded veterans. Likely a pass, but I’d draft him 1-2 rounds after his ADP.

Joe Musgrove (B+) – Intrigued, but if his spring continues to flow flawlessly, the price will rise to the 140-160 range and our margin for profit has sunk. Currently a target.

Jack Flaherty (C+) – Derives value from strikeout output potential based on recent seasons flirting with the 30% K mark. Too much volatility in his profile for me to stomach.

Zac Gallen (C) – Defense projects among the top five, but the bullpen seems wonky, offense is weaker, and Gallen has become the human rollercoaster. Not a target but would consider him.

Ryan Weathers (B) – New high velocity, health history, and durability are all concerning factors. Ideal breakout candidate based on skills and new environment. Beware the rising price. I’d consider.

Jack Leiter (A-) – Ironically, the most affordable per current ADP is my favorite target. Healthy, elite pedigree, killer stuff, pitcher-friendly home park, and the boys in his ear (deGrom, Eovaldi)

The most important takeaway is one that hasn’t been introduced yet – that there are over a dozen starters in the Rounds 21-25 range who are comparable to the arms in this cluster. If we’re comfortable with those later targets, then we don’t have to spend much time shopping in this range. To recap, Leiter is a strong target, Musgrove and Weathers are also, albeit the latter comes with a high risk factor. Boyd, Flaherty and Gallen are considerations, but only after their ADPs. I won’t have Andrew Abbott on any of my teams this season.

Bold can be beautiful. Sometimes it’s downright ugly. In the case of bold fantasy predictions, it’s not in the eye of the beholder, but in the results. Since most bold predictions columns focus deep into the player pool, I decided to approach it from a different angle. Below is a set of prognostications, only for hitters in the top 100 ADP. I’ll cover one per offensive position, though they will not be presented in order of confidence, since I’m mostly confident in all of them. Be sure to let me have it if they’re downright ugly come the end of the season.

Fantasy earnings mentioned below are measured for standard 5×5 roto using the FanGraphs Fantasy Player Rater

Catcher – William Contreras outearns Cal Raleigh and is the highest-rated catcher

No one will ever be able take away Cal Raleigh’s magical season – only six other players and no other catchers have ever socked 60 dingers in a season. He’s a consensus second-round fantasy pick, and no other backstop is within 30 ADP spots of him. Let’s pivot from fantasy to reality: Raleigh is a beast. He rarely takes a day off, makes a quarter of his starts as Seattle’s designated hitter to give his knees a rest, and he could easily crush 40+ bombs again. How can any other catcher even come close? If Raleigh’s 2026 production more closely mirrors 2023-2024 than 2025, then 76-36-90-2-.227 won’t cut the mustard for overall C1. Especially in this new world of impact fantasy catchers who spend time at other positions or more frequently DH (Salvador Perez, Hunter Goodman) or don’t catch at all (Ben Rice). If ever there was a guy to unseat him, why not the guy Raleigh just unseated? His name is William Contreras – the top fantasy catcher in 2024 and 2023.

Contreras is coming off a down year, yet he still earned $20 in 12-team standard roto and was the overall C4, playing with a fracture in his left middle finger for much of the season. Contreras’ 1,949 plate appearances over the last three seasons are the most at the position. From 2023 to 2024, as the no. 1 backstop, he averaged 93 runs, 20 homers, 85 RBIs,  8 stolen bases, and a .284 BA. A similar 5×5 stat line in 2026 should yield another top-25 season, pitchers excluded. Contreras hits the ball hard (92 mph EV, 49% HH), produces an elite batting average at his position (in fact, for any position), and he usually throws in a few bags. With Jackson Chourio and Brice Turang hitting in front of him, and Christian Yelich and Andrew Vaughn behind, who is to say Contreras can’t set new highs in runs and runs batted in? He’s healthy, in his prime (age 28 season), and is ready to earn his crown back from the Big Dumper, assuming Cal sterilizes it first.

First Base – Vinnie Pasquantino hits 40 home runs

It’s possible we have not yet seen the best of Pasquatch. Pasquantino is a popular player and an easy guy to root for. The big guy is friendly, active on social media, and has a love for baseball analytics. He is one of just eight hitters averaging 105 or more RBIs over the last two seasons, and that’s with missing 33 games. He maintained a BB/K over 1.00 in the minors, and though it’s 0.61 in the majors, that is still above big-league average, and he’s a tough guy to punch out (13.5% career strikeout rate). Pasquantino set a career high in homers with 32 last season. Models project a slight regression, around 27, which is a very reasonable expectation. Those doubting 40 is possible would point toward league-average power metrics, such as a 91 average EV, 9% barrel rate, 45% hard-hit rate, and .191 ISO.

Moreover, his bat speed (72.5) is mediocre, and his launch angle of 16.6 degrees over the last two seasons could use a slight increase. Pasquantino’s plate discipline has been slowly waning over these past few years, and with Kauffman Stadium’s outfield walls moving in, Vinnie P might be interested in selling out a bit of contact (85% career) for more power. Kauffman’s dimension shifts are a big deal. The left and right field fences are coming in by 9-10 feet, and the wall heights are reduced by up to 18 inches. There is no debate about more homers being hit there in 2026 than in past seasons. Vinnie P may not be a batting average stalwart like he was in the minors and his rookie season, but that’s ok because the HR/RBI numbers will be epic. I believe the Royals will win the AL Central, and that Pasquantino crushes 40 this year.

Second Base – Nico Hoerner is fantasy’s top second baseman

“Are you trying to tell me a guy who has never hit 10 homers in a season is going to be the top producer at his position?” That’s exactly what I’m telling you. In fact, that’s exactly what happened last season when Brice Turang (who came in with a career-high seven home runs) was the only second baseman to earn $20+ in roto. This one should qualify as the least bold call of all, since the bar for being the overall 2B1 isn’t high. The only others here in the ADP 100 are Turang, Jazz Chisholm Jr. and Ketel Marte, and only a few from the field below Hoerner could even be considered dark horse candidates. Chisholm and Marte have had their share of injury woes, though both are strong candidates. Turang is firmly entrenched in the 2B1 conversation, but what if the home runs (18) and outlier batting average (.288; .262 xBA) aren’t repeated, and the swipes remain in the 20-30 range? This is a fantasy opportunity for Hoerner – an elite contact hitter and base-stealer on a talented veteran-infused lineup to tie it all together with a bow of 16 dingers? A 90-16-66-36-.292 line could earn him the top spot, and they’re all numbers he’s produced before, sans the homers.

Third Base/Shortstop – Gunnar Henderson and Zach Neto become the newest members of the 30/30 Club

The 30/30 Club isn’t as exclusive as it once was. No hitters accomplished the feat between 2013 and 2017. Since then, there have been two (2018), two (2019), one (2021 – Cedric Mullins), none in 2022, four (2023), and three (2024). In 2025, there were seven: José Ramírez, Julio Rodriguez, Jazz Chisholm Jr., Juan Soto, Francisco Lindor, Corbin Carroll and Pete Crow-Armstrong. Bobby Witt Jr. fell short (22/38), but accomplished the feat in 2023 and 2024. Gunnar Henderson and Zach Neto can join the club in 2026. Henderson only missed six games last season, but played through left shoulder impingement and inflammation for most of the year. He still stole 30 bases on 35 attempts and hit 17 home runs. In the previous season, Henderson crushed 37 bombs. His average exit velocity (92.1 mph), bat speed (75.3 mph) and hard-hit rate (49.2%) all ranked in the top 15% of hitters last season.

With Pete Alonso, Taylor Ward, and a loaded, improving offense around him, Henderson is very capable of 30/30 and a run at the AL MVP award. Neto produced 23/30 in his first full season (602 PA, 2024), and followed up with 26/26 in just 554 plate appearances in 2025. His average exit velocity (91 mph) and hard-hit rate (46.6%) were both well above average, and he nearly doubled his barrel rate from 2024 (8.8%) to 2025 (14%). The key for Neto to get there is, of course, health. Though not just his own, but that of veteran Mike Trout, whose presence in the lineup always has a positive impact on those around him. Despite his second/third-round ADP, Neto is still somewhat underrated and should make a name for himself on the national stage this year. Henderson and Neto join the 30/30 Club this season!

Outfield – Ronald Acuña Jr. outearns everyone

There have only been two $60+ seasons, per our Player Rater – Shohei Ohtani’s 50/50 season from 2024 and Ronald Acuña Jr.’s in 2023. That season, Acuña stayed healthy, amassed 735 plate appearances and produced an insane line: 149 R, 41 HR, 106 RBI, 73 SB and a .337 average. If anyone can beat out Ohtani, Judge or Witt for fantasy’s top earner this season, it’s Acuña. I’m buying in on another epic season as the leadoff man for a stacked Atlanta Braves offense in his age-28 season. Last season, he slashed .290/.417/.518, hit 21 dingers in 412 PAs, and flaunted healthy power metrics – 92.7 mph EV, 15.7% BRL, 52.5% HH. He kept his running to a minimum (nine swipes on 10 attempts) last season, but ran wild in winter ball (11 SB in 71 PA), and stole another two in his first four spring training games. Acuña is as healthy as he’s been since that epic 2023 season and is hungry for a repeat. With his ability for elite production across all five standard roto categories, and the fact that Ohtani isn’t projected to run wild like in 2024 (63 attempts), Acuña will edge out the field and be the king of fantasy once again.

Bonus: Kyle Tucker leads the National League in RBIs

Very few folks outside of those who drafted him or who bleed Dodger Blue want to see this one come to fruition. Tucker has been catching lots of grief over the past year between his lowkey demeanor, missing substantial time with injuries, and signing a huge AAV contract ($57.2M per for four years), loaded with deferrals. When healthy, he is one of the most consistent and well-rounded producers in fantasy, averaging .278/.353/.517, 30 HR, 23 SB, 84 R, 104 RBI and a 138 wRC+ over his first three full seasons (2021-2023). His production pace was elite in his last two, injury-marred seasons as well. Tucker is in a position to produce a career year in his first season with the Dodgers. Manager Dave Roberts intends to have him bat second between Shohei Ohtani and Mookie Betts, which would line Tucker up to score more runs than he drives in. It’s highly likely that Tucker earns most of his at-bats this season hitting third between Betts and projected cleanup man, Freddie Freeman – and that’s exactly how I foresee the top of this lineup materializing. FanGraphs Depth Charts (FGDC) currently projects Tucker with the fourth-most RBIs (99) in the NL behind Ohtani, Kyle Schwarber, and Juan Soto. I’ve got Tucker with 126 and the RBI NL crown.