1/13/22

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2B RANKINGS

• Marcus Semien’s home/road split
• Jose Altuve as a target
• Justin isn’t sold on Jazz Chisholm Jr.
• The Ozzie Albies discount
• Andrés Giménez’s power
• Thairo Estrada breakout follow-up

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Notes on some select SS:

Trea Turner heads back to the NL East on the heels of his first 100+ R/RBI season – his 3rd of 100+ runs, 1st reaching 100+ RBIs (previous high of 77). There has been some concern around his spike in Chase rate (36% O-Swing; career 29% coming into ’22) and it might have played a role in his power drop as his .169 ISO was well below the .213 he had from 2019-21. It is worth monitoring. I’m more inclined to fade him to allow a transition year after inking the huge deal with Philadelphia as opposed to major concerns about the Chase spike.

Bo Bichette had just two months north of .743 OPS, but one of them was the incredible 1.105 in September with 7 HR which helped him secure the #4 spot at the position despite a 12-SB dip down to 13 with just a 62% success rate. The rule changes could fuel a bounce back into the 20s and if he regains the elite efficiency from 2021 (96%) or something close to it, he might chase down Turner for the top spot, especially if he can lead the American League in hits for a 3rd straight season.

On a per plate appearance basis, Fernando Tatis Jr. is tops. It’s the fact that I tabbed him for 530 PA that pushes him down to 3rd. He has just been so absurd across his 1175 MLB PA that it’s hard to find any flaw beyond the missed time – 21 games for sure due to suspension and the ever-present shoulder risk. If the remainder of the suspension is all he misses, he has a realistic shot at being the top overall player.

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Chat time!

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1/9/23

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to our Patreon!!

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1B RANKINGS

• The 1st rounders: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. & Freddie Freeman
• Should Paul Goldschmidt be right there w/those 2?
• Is Pete Alonso the single best bet for 50 HR at 1B? Leaguewide?
• Will Matt Olson’s AVG rebound?
• Split on Vinnie Pasquantino & José Abreu is similar
• Is Nathaniel Lowe’s upside entirely R/RBI-related or can he pop 30+?
• Should C.J. Cron be a home-only player?
• Did Josh Bell tank his market value w/the struggles in SD?
• What are we missing on Andrew Vaughn?

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Second base is short on top end talent, but incredibly deep in middling options as there isn’t a ton of difference in the 24 guys bookended by the Urias brothers, Luis and Ramon.

Notes on some select 2B:

Marcus Semien fronted the league 43 games before hitting his first homer and still wound up with 26 thanks to an excellent summer. He hit .268/.324/.492 with 20 SB, 72 RBI, 85 R and those 26 HR from May 28th on. While his extreme volume is a big part of his game (4 straight 700+ PA seasons; led MLB in 3 of them), he still had a 20/20 pace over 600 PA in 2022.

I’m not projecting another 18 SBs for Jose Altuve given that he had just 13 in his previous 1436 PA from 2019-21, but the 33-year-old doesn’t need a repeat there to remain a premium option at the position. The offense remains loaded, and his skills are aging brilliantly.

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Transcript is now available!

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NOTES:

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is the king of the position, though I do feel like 2021 will remain his high watermark. He hit 44% of his 41 HRs in just 28% of his season plate appearances at the two temporary homes they used before returning to Rogers Centre. He is a good bet to get back to .300-30-100-100.

While Freddie Freeman doesn’t always deliver that cornerstone power at 1B, he more than makes up for it with his other four categories, often highlighted by a premium AVG (.325 last yr; .298 career). He even spiked a career-high 13 SBs last year to counterbalance his 21 HRs, his lowest over the last six full seasons.

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12/23/22

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to our Patreon!!

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INJURIES/TRANSACTION NEWS

• Carlos Correa to NYM!!
• Michael Conforto to SFG
• Brandon Drury to LAA
• Wil Myers to CIN
• Mike Moustakas DFA’d

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Transcript is below! Have a wonderful Holiday Season! (no chat next week)

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As of right now, these four are penciled to be the sixth man (or at least in contention for that sixth spot) in their team’s respective rotations. Given that it’s mid-December, these situations are all subject to change so one or more of them could break camp with a rotation spot in hand. Even if they don’t, they could be the first man up when someone goes down. And I’m not trying to be pessimistic, it’s always “when”, not “if” as teams simply don’t use the same five starters for an entire season.

Hunter Brown | HOU

The 24-year-old had a brilliant breakthrough season with a 2.55 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, and 21% K-BB rate in 106 innings at Triple-A along with a nice cup of coffee in the major (0.89 ERA in 20 IP). He has premium heat (96.7 mph fastball) and two solid breaking balls that has helped him consistently miss bats throughout his minor league ascent, netting a 31% K rate in 230 innings. He does have a 12% BB rate, too, so there is some control sketchiness to iron out, though he was down to 10% in AAA/MLB this year. Brown also has fantastic groundball rates throughout his career, including a 54% at Triple-A and then a bananas 68% mark in his MLB sample.

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