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The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 1110 – ADP Changes from 2022

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November 1, 2022

11/1/22

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PATREON

ADP CHANGES

Top 5 Undrafted from 2021

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The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 1109 – Dissecting Paul’s SP Rankings

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October 28, 2022

AUDIO FIXED!

10/28/22

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PATREON

REVIEWING PAUL’S SP RANKS

Paul Loves

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2022 Biggest Hitter Busts

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October 27, 2022
Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

For this I used the Auction Calculator which includes the ADP pulled from the NFBC and focused on the guys who weren’t complete injury washouts. Adalberto Mondesi was indeed a bust, but he managed just 54 PA so you had a replacement all year. Injuries certainly play a role in bust seasons, whether it’s something that costs a player time or a nagging injury that compromises their play but doesn’t take them off the field. I used a 300 PA cutoff here which is admittedly arbitrary and does include guys who hit the IL, but figured it gave us a better group of guys whose bust status is more performance-based.

Wander Franco | 58.9 ADP 

-$2 in 344 PA – .277 AVG, 6 HR, 8 SB, 33 RBI, 46 R

Among the hitters drafted in the top 100, Franco was the only negative value who eclipsed 300 PA. He did have a pair of IL stints that essentially cut his season in half, but the production while on the field didn’t really match his draft price. The 22-year-old shortstop still has incredible upside, and the market definitely won’t run away from him based on this season. He went 89th in the one draft I’ve done so far and I expect him to slowly rise up the board over the winter and wind up around the Top 75 come draft season in March.

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The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 1108 – Dissecting Justin’s SP Rankings

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October 25, 2022

10/14/22

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PATREON

REVIEWING JUSTIN’S SP RANKS

Finesse Lefties:

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The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 1107 – Arizona Fall League Standouts

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October 21, 2022

10/21/22

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PATREON

EARLY DC DRAFT REVIEW

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Reviewing Best Buys and Hot Takes: AL East

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October 20, 2022
Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

Last year, I did a Roster Review series throughout the fall/winter looking back at the 2021 season for all 30 teams while also including a Best Buy and Hot Take for 2022 (as well as an On the Rise and Off the Radar players, but I’ll probably review those in a separate piece down the line).

Let’s see how it all turned out!

NEW YORK YANKEES

BEST BUY: Giancarlo Stanton

It’s Judge… obviously. Stanton gave you 31 HRs in just 452 PA, but with a .211 AVG.

HOT TAKE: Gleyber Torres has a 30 HR season.

By letter of the law, it’s a miss as he hit just 24, buuutttt he more than doubled his 2021 output of 9 and didn’t give back all the SBs, either, netting his first double-double (24 HR/10 SB) so if the Hot Take moved Torres up on your board, you are happy with the results. I know there have been a billion jokes about his age, particularly when he smashed 38 HRs at age-22, but it’s worth remembering that he’s entering his age-26 season next year. While he might never hit that many again, he has upside at a fair price.

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2022 Category Breakdown: Home Runs

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October 17, 2022
Katie Stratman-USA TODAY Sports

HRs dropped by 729 to 5215, a 12% decline from 2021.

The league SLG fell to .395, the first time below .400 since 2014.

Aaron Judge led the league with 62 HRs, easily outpacing the NL leader, Kyle Schwarber, and his 46.

Two other players hit 40+ with Mike Trout and Pete Alonso (40 each) joining Judge and Schwarber, giving us four hitters with 40+ HRs, down from the five in 2021.

Six players hit 35-39: Austin Riley (38), Yordan Alvarez (37), Christian Walker (36), Paul Goldschmidt (35), Mookie Betts (35), Rowdy Tellez (35). Down from 14 in 2021.

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The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 1106 – Early Draft Champions Review

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October 14, 2022

10/14/22

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PATREON

EARLY DC DRAFT REVIEW

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2022 Catcher Review

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October 13, 2022
Paul Rutherford-USA TODAY Sports

Catcher is always an interesting fantasy position. In 1-catcher formats, you will have a large portion of the league that simply takes what the drafts gives them, even if they are the last one to select their backstop. While they know the teams with the stud Cs will have an advantage, it is one they are willing to relent as they are fine getting “stuck” with the lower end and streaming. In 2-catcher formats, there is an array of strategies ranging from double studs at the high end to double punt at the low end and everything in between.

The position seems to be undergoing a youth movement recently that could result in uncharacteristic depth. It is normal to see catchers breakout later as hitters because their #1 priority upon arrival is managing the pitching staff and to a lesser extent, the running game. This year saw a spike in young catchers both playing and playing well. The 10 catchers age-25 and under who logged 200+ PA doubled last year’s total and was the first double-digit total since 2012. Half of those catchers managed a 100 or better OPS+ as well. There were 4 such catchers in 2021, too. The 9 catchers to reach that 100 or better OPS+ mark in 2021-22 are more than the 8 we saw in 2015-19 (including 0 in 2018).

Are catchers a booming market? How’d we get here and who stands out for 2023?

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The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 1105 – Small Sample Superstars

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October 11, 2022

10/11/22

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PATREON

SMALL SAMPLE SUPERSTARS

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