4/1/24

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to our Patreon!!

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INJURIES/TRANSACTION NEWS

• Royce Lewis out at least a month (quad) – cutting him anywhere?
• Austin Martin coming up; Willi Castro going into lineup
• Oswaldo Cabrera dominates starting all 4 gms – not yet 3B elig.
• J.D. Davis pops off in OAK
• Justin Steele out for a month (hamstring)
• Ben Brown called up
• Jared Jones, Jack Flaherty, Paul Blackburn, Brady Singer pop off
• Sean Murphy out for a month (oblique); Travis d’Arnaud relevant again!

SP MELTDOWN REACTIONS

• Bailey Ober
• A.J. Puk
• Trevor Rogers
• Ryan Weathers
• Luis Severino
• Kenta Maeda

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Daily SP Chart archive

The chart includes their last season performance until we get some actual data for this year, their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness from last year (and then I’ll add the last 30 days outlook next month), my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them (notes will be more statistical-based once we get some sample to work with). Obviously, there are league sizes beyond those three so it’s essentially a shallow, medium, deep. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s basically a riskier stream for those spots.

These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more value focusing on roto.

I was going to recommend some really bad starters for an April Fool’s gag, but I was worried some people might take them seriously and then get pissed at me for starting Chris Flexen 플렉센 v. ATL! 😂

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3/29/24

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to our Patreon!!

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OPENING DAY REVIEW

• Jorge Mateo starts vL
• Royce Lewis gets hurt again
• Griffin Jax gets the first SV for MIN
• Maikel Garcia goes yard while leading off
• Jason Foley gets the first SV for DET
• Garrett Crochet dominant for 6 IP; gets ATL next wk
• Oswaldo Cabrera starts at 3B & goes yard
• Jake Meyers starts in CF & goes yard

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Daily SP Chart archive

The chart includes their last season performance until we get some actual data for this year, their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness from last year (and then I’ll add the last 30 days outlook next month), my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them (well, no notes for this first weekend since we’re mostly just going off the preseason analysis, but I will answer as many comments as I can). Obviously, there are league sizes beyond those three so it’s essentially a shallow, medium, deep. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s basically a riskier stream for those spots.

These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more value focusing on roto.

OK, I swear these will regularly come out the day before but I absolutely fell asleep early again last night! I’ve been burning the candle at both ends this week, so I just crashed. Again, these first few days are pretty easy decisions, but I know that y’all need these the day before to pick up guys on most sites.

Read the rest of this entry »

Daily SP Chart archive

The chart includes their last season performance until we get some actual data for this year, their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness from last year (and then I’ll add the last 30 days outlook next month), my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them (well, no notes for this first weekend since we’re mostly just going off the preseason analysis, but I will answer as many comments as I can). Obviously, there are league sizes beyond those three so it’s essentially a shallow, medium, deep. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s basically a risky stream for those spots.

These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more value focusing on roto.

This will come out the night before most days. I had a late night draft last night and just couldn’t stay up to finish it afterwards. But it’s Opening Day so most of the decisions are pretty easy!

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Transcript is now available, thanks for coming out!

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3/25/24

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to our Patreon!!

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INJURIES/TRANSACTION NEWS

• Wyatt Langford – 72 wknd ADP; 51 min
• Colton Cowser – 397 ADP; 320 min
• Ceddanne Rafaela – 212 ADP; 157 min
• Casey Mize in – 285 ADP; Matt Manning out
• Jared Jones – 319 ADP; 257 min
• Max Meyer – 295 ADP; 243 min
• Luis Gil – 330 ADP; 270 min Clayton Beeter makes it, too! (undrafted)

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Finally! If you follow my chat, you know I’ve been promising my SP rankings for quite some time, but after we made the decision to do this rollout, it didn’t make sense for me to just do a 1-to-152 ranking and then release these a week or two later. I appreciate the patience and now that they’re finally here, you can expect plenty of updates. There will be added write ups for guys who didn’t get mentioned as well as updates when someone’s outlook changes (which is particularly important for the pending FAs).

Let me know if you think I left anyone off and I’ll look into adding during an update.

Changelog

• 3/23/2024 – Updates: Blake Snell, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Jack Flaherty, Trevor Rogers, Gavin Williams, Eury Perez, A.J. Puk, Casey Mize, Matt Manning ☹, Eduardo Rodriguez, Jordan Montgomery, Jared Jones, Emmet Sheehan, Kyle Bradish, Will Warren | Profiles: Louie Varland, Michael Lorenzen, Garrett Crochet, J.P. France, Keaton Winn, Javier Assad, Jordan Wicks, Wade Miley, Anthony DeSclafani, Jameson Taillon, | Removal: Michael Kopech (moved to the bullpen)
• 3/13/2024 – Updates: Gerrit Cole, Dylan Cease, Shane Bieber, Gavin Williams, Taj Bradley, Alek Manoah | Profiles: Nick Pivetta, Charlie Morton, Reese Olson, Luis Gil, Clayton Beeter, Casey Mize, Bowden Francis | Removal: Lucas Giolito (out for the year)
• 3/7/2024 – Profiles: Braxton Garrett, Kutter Crawford, Gavin Williams, Griffin Canning, Nestor Cortes, Logan Allen, Nick Lodolo, Graham Ashcraft, Jared Jones, Jackson Jobe, Kyle Harrison, Cole Irvin, AJ Smith-Shawver, Will Warren, Chase Hampton | Ranking Changes: too many to list ’em all!
• 2/23/2024 – Profiles: Kenta Maeda, James Paxton, Aaron Civale, Bryan Woo, Jon Gray, Jackson Jobe | Removal: Hyun Jin Ryu 류현진 (signed in KBO) | Ranking Changes: Maeda, Woo, Kodai Senga, Kyle Bradish, Cole Ragans, Joe Ryan, Walker Buehler, Yu Darvish, Shane Baz, John Means, Tyler Wells, Erick Fedde 페디
• 2/2/2024 – Profiles: Corbin Burnes update, Ross Stripling | Added: Ricky Tiedemann, DL Hall, Ben Brown, Alex Wood
• 1/26/2024 – Profiles: Eduardo Rodriguez, José Urquidy, Chris Bassitt, Merrill Kelly 켈리 | Added: Jordan Hicks (for real this time!), Mitch Spence
• 1/24/2024 – Added Tyler Wells, Cade Horton, Erick Fedde 페디, and Jordan Hicks plus write-ups for Marcus Stroman and James Paxton after they signed
• 1/11/2024 – First Release

Ranking Methodology

• ADP is based on 30-day rolling NFBC Rotowire Online Championship Leagues.
• $ Values are based on standard 5×5 12-team league using the FanGraphs Depth Charts and these Auction Calculator settings. They default to a player’s most valuable position, so if the first base list includes a catcher, it will show that player’s value at catcher.
• ADP and $ Values are updated as of the last update date on this post.
• 5-game eligibility was used for these lists to cast the widest net (though that’s not a big deal at SP).

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3/22/24

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to our Patreon!!

Follow us on Twitter

• @sporer – Host
• @justinmasonfwfb – Co-Host/Producer

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INJURIES/TRANSACTION NEWS

• J.D. Martinez to NYM
• A quick Starling Marte aside
• Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s bad debut
• Matt McLain to IL
• Josh Lowe oblique injury

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3/21/24

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to our Patreon!!

Follow us on Twitter

• @sporer – Host
• @justinmasonfwfb – Co-Host/Producer

PATREON

• Join our Patreon for live video feeds of each show
• Watch the video feed replay on YouTube

INJURIES/TRANSACTION NEWS

• Eduardo Rodriguez dealing w/lat tightness
• Marlins rotation – Eury Pérez, Braxton Garrett hurt; A.J. Puk, Ryan Weathers, Trevor Rogers in
• Cubs rotation – Drew Smyly to pen; Jordan Wicks, Javier Assad in
• Blake Snell to SFG
• Michael Lorenzen to TEX
• Anthony DeSclafani to IL; Louie Varland in rotation then gives up 8 ER to DET
• Kyle Bradish throws a bullpen; progressing w/elbow issue
• Gavin Williams heading to IL w/elbow issue

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