Author Archive

A New Lincecum? Probably Not.

Sometimes it is hard to remember that Tim Lincecum used to be one of baseball’s best pitchers. The back-to-back Cy Young Award winner in 2008 and 2009 enjoyed two more excellent seasons immediately after with Cy Young finishes in both, but fell off a cliff at age-28 and has remained in the canyon with Wile E. Coyote ever since with a 4.76 ERA in 539.3 innings over the last three seasons.

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The early returns have been Vintage Lincecum from a results standpoint (2.00 ERA, 1.19 WHIP), but is there change we can believe in or is this just a solid run for him? After all even in the midst of a 4.74 ERA in 155.7 innings last year, he still had a random six-start run of 1.49 ERA in the early-summer. Of course it did feature his no-hitter and another outing against the offensively-challenged Padres (15.3 IP of 3-hit, 1-run ball in those two outings alone).

Are we seeing something different or is this something that would barely hit our radar if it came in mid-June as his run did last year? Let’s see what we’re dealing with here.

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RotoGraphs Audio: The Sleeper and the Bust 5/12/2015 – The Shelbiest of Millers

Episode 228

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!

Eno is on a train during this one and there is some spottiness, but it’s not too much and I don’t think it obscures any main points, but if you miss something that needs clarifying, let us know!

In this episode, Paul Sporer and Eno Sarris discuss the injury updates with Justin Verlander, Ivan Nova, Devin Mesoraco, and Zack Cozart. They talk about their current valuations of Yunel Escobar, Kris Bryant, Mark Teixeira, Jordan Pacheco, Shelby Miller, Ubaldo Jimenez, Alex Colome, and Colby Lewis. They finish with a discussion about the Steve Cishek situation in Miami.

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RotoGraphs Audio: The Sleeper and the Bust 5/10/2015 – A Real Rodon

Episode 227

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!

In this episode, Paul Sporer and Jason Collette discuss the injury news surrounding Alex Cobb, Drew Smyly, Jarrod Parker, Alex Avila, Aramis Ramirez, and Michael Saunders. They talk about their current valuations of Michael Pineda, Garrett Richards, Bartolo Colon, Jedd Gyorko, Adam Eaton, Jason Kipnis, Chris Carter, Noah Syndergaard, Carlos Rodon, and Preston Tucker. They check in on some wobbly bullpen situations, too.

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RotoGraphs Audio: The Sleeper and the Bust 5/7/2015 – Kluber Klubbed

Episode 226

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!

In this episode, Paul Sporer and Eno Sarris discuss the injury news surrounding Coco Crisp, Jayson Werth, J.J. Hardy, and Nick Swisher. They dive into the performances of Corey Kluber, Chris Sale, Drew Pomeranz, Mike Fiers, James Shields, Joc Pederson, Yasmani Grandal, and Andrelton Simmons before closing with a couple of Arizona transactions.

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National League Starting Pitcher Tiers: May

We’re a month in and it’s time to update the NL SP tiers. A month can and definitely has changed things, but we need to be careful not to overreact to what we’ve seen so far, for better or worse. It’s a fine balance, though. We don’t want to overreact, but if we stay married to all of our preseason notions too long, we could miss the boat on guys, again for better or worse.

For May, I’ve got 10 tiers covering 70 names. I realize that there are 75 guys currently in rotations, but 10 of them just didn’t make the cut. Meanwhile, five injured arms not currently in rotations did merit a spot, thus the 70 count. I don’t yet have a fun theme for naming the tiers, but if the tiers are named by the time you read this, it means I came up with something and didn’t edit out this sentence.

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I Wish I Knew How to Quit Choo

Shin-Soo Choo is no longer elite. He used to be, though. Back in 2009-2010, he put up a pair of excellent .300, 20/20 seasons which yielded a 139 wRC+, good enough for 11th in baseball. Just two years ago in a much tougher scoring environment across the league, he hit .285 and went 20/20 yielding a 151 wRC+ (9th-best). The move to Texas wasn’t really an upgrade in park, but it didn’t project to really hurt him, either. After all, his best work came in Cleveland which is hardly known as a hitter-friendly ballpark (these days it plays plus for LHB, though not overwhelmingly so).

Injuries marred his debut season in Texas resulting in an uninspiring effort that saw him hit 13 homers with a .242 AVG, .714 OPS, and just three stolen bases (in seven attempts) in 123 games. Both the ankle and elbow injuries that nagged him throughout the season required surgery and so there was a reasonable expectation of health for Choo coming into the season. His 2014 campaign offered a discount as he sank to the 51st outfielder off the board this draft season. Given the wretched first month to his season, it’s hard not to wonder if either of last year’s injuries or perhaps a new one has cropped up for Choo.

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RotoGraphs Audio: The Sleeper and the Bust 5/5/2015 – Rock the Vogt

Episode 225

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!

In this episode, Paul Sporer and Eno Sarris discuss the injury news surrounding Alex Cobb, Anthony Rendon, Hanley Ramirez, and Oswaldo Arcia. They also dive into the April performances of Stephen Vogt, Josh Reddick, Brandon Crawford, Dee Gordon, Dallas Keuchel, and Alex Wood. They close talking about some call-ups: Chad Billingsley, Tyler Lyons, and Eddie Rosario.

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Catching Hell: Rookie Backstops Won’t Save Your Season

There was a time in fantasy baseball when prospect call-ups barely registered on the radar. I know that sounds crazy given how much we as a community overreact to them now, but when I first started playing there were maybe a handful of call-ups we were waiting for in-season and even then, expectations were tempered. Today, we often have outsized expectations attached to prospects which lead to a lot of disappointment. The newest names almost sure to disappoint the fantasy community are catchers Blake Swihart and Austin Hedges.

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RotoGraphs Audio: The Sleeper and the Bust 5/3/2015 – Catching Fire


RotoGraphs Audio: The Sleeper and the Bust 4/30/2015 – Greene & Hutch

Episode 223

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!

In this episode, Paul Sporer and Eno Sarris discuss the injury news related to Jed Lowrie, Albert Pujols, Alcides Escobar, Archie Bradley, Anthony Rendon, Mat Latos, and Phil Hughes. They also touch on the call-ups of Tim Cooney and Jack Leathersich (and how it relates to Rafael Montero, who ended up getting hurt during his spot start on Tuesday). And finally they look at some recent performances from Ryan Braun, Denard Span, Hanley Ramirez, Shane Greene, Drew Hutchison, Dallas Keuchel, Mike Pelfrey, and Ubaldo Jimenez.

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