The Minnesota Twins dealt Aaron Hicks after parts of three uninspired seasons and I’m sure many of you were like me and thought this could be a case similar to Carlos Gomez. Gomez came up as a Mets prospect. He was raw, speedy super-athlete who showed the defense for center in the minors, but he was projected to add power as he filled out. The Mets rushed him to the majors at age-21 after just three-plus seasons in the minors and he’s been a major leaguer ever since.

He was the key piece in the Johan Santana deal for Minnesota and that likely encouraged them to continue the rushed development of Gomez as they immediately inserted him into the starting centerfield role at 22 years old. After a rotten 74 wRC+ in 614 PA, his playing time was drastically cut the following season.

Unfortunately, he played even worse (64 wRC+ in 349 PA). He was traded again, this time to Milwaukee in a straight up deal for J.J. Hardy. He labored through two half-seasons upon arrival, marred by three DL stints, and didn’t look much different than the Minnesota version with a 79 wRC+ in 576 PA. Hicks’ backstory has some key differences.

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Episode 291

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!

In this episode, Paul Sporer and Jason Collette are back talking Hot Stove! The big Jordan Zimmermann signing is first on the docket along with J.A. Happ in Toronto plus some rumored teams for key free agents. They start the series of Collette’s Calls the audio edition (same name as his Rotowire Column) where he’ll try to guess some free agents signings. We’ll do 3-5 each week starting with Justin Upton, Chris Davis, and Howie Kendrick.

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Taylor was one of 16 players with at least 14 HR and 16 SB in 2015. The group included luminaries like Paul Goldschmidt, Anthony Rizzo, Manny Machado, Mookie Betts, and Ryan Braun and obviously Taylor’s inclusion doesn’t mean he’s destined to reach their heights. In fact, his .640 OPS was easily the lowest of the bunch (Brett Gardner .742) and it netted a 72 OPS+, 30 points lower than second-worst (Charlie Blackmon 102).

Working in his favor is the fact that Taylor was just a rookie and second-youngest by age at 24 (third-youngest overall as Machado and Betts were both 22) so his deficiencies are understandable. Plus, he played just 20 games at Triple-A before reaching the majors. The biggest difference in Taylor’s game compared to the entire rest of the group is that he strikes out a ton. His 31% strikeout rate was the highest of the 16 players and Justin Upton was the only other one to top 25%. The swing-and-miss wasn’t new for Taylor, he had a 25% rate in 2189 minor league PA.

I’d feel much better about a 2016 breakout if he didn’t whiff so much, but let’s see if there are reasons for optimism.

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Episode 290

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!

In this episode, Paul Sporer and Eno Sarris are talking trades! This mega-trade episode covers all the big moves we’ve seen so far from Craig Kimbrel to Cameron Maybin and everything in between. We also discuss the early signings and qualifying offers that were accepted.  Read the rest of this entry »

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Episode 289

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!

In this episode, Paul Sporer and Jason Collette are back and talking baseball. The offseason is already filled with player movement and today we’re discussing some intriguing DFA players, the trade block, and some rumored teams for Darren O’Day and Jordan Zimmermann. They also talk way too much* about their DFS football teams.

*like two minutes, so relax already… feel better, Charmander!! 

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We know the game is changing and getting much younger as a result. We just watched perhaps the best rookie class ever. One position that has been especially enriched by the youth movement is shortstop. For a few years it has been the worst fantasy position on the diamond and next-worst wasn’t particularly close. The gap has definitely shrunk and may have done so enough to where it’s not even the thinnest position in fantasy.

Obviously the headliners here are Carlos Correa and Francisco Lindor, the two super-phenoms who embarrassed the league’s pitchers for 99 games apiece at the ages of 20 and 21, respectively. Many already see Correa as a first-round fantasy talent thanks in large part to his incredible power at such a premium position. Lindor won’t last too long, either. He went in the fourth round of a 15-team draft I did earlier this month, though he hasn’t yet gone deep into the seventh round of a 12-team mock that I have observed.

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On Tuesday, Brandon Crawford was inked to a six-year, $75 million dollar extension by the Giants complete with a full no-trade clause. The 28-year old shortstop just enjoyed a breakout season that saw him hit 21 HR and knock in 84 runs, both highs at the position. The offense was added to an already-stellar defensive reputation at arguably the game’s most important position.

In fact, defense alone earned his playing time early on. Crawford, a fourth-round pick from 2008, debuted in 2011 after the hopes of one final kick from Miguel Tejada fell through for the Giants. He was called up in late-May as a 24-year old after Tejada managed a paltry .522 OPS through the team’s first 50 games. The 37-year old had also shifted over to third base by the start of May, leaving shortstop to 31-year old journeyman Mike Fontenot.

Crawford was never a big-time prospect coming up. He barely made San Francisco’s Top 10 from Marc Hulet prior to his debut, but the lack of hype was because of his bat. His defense was always seen as big league-capable. Hulet suggested he could become an Adam Everett-type or maybe even a J.J. Hardy clone with less power if his bat improved. In his debut, he looked a lot like the former with a 68 wRC+ in 66 games. Everett was a career 65 wRC+ (albeit with excellent, best-in-the-league level defense).

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It was a weird breakout season for Xander Bogaerts. He was the undisputed top shortstop in baseball by about $9 and yet it doesn’t really feel like it. He won’t be the top shortstop off the board in 2016 and his home runs + stolen bases didn’t even equal 20. The big season was spurred by an 80-point spike in batting average, 84 runs, and 81 RBI.

Obviously the batting average plays into the rise of the other two, but a lot of it was batting second, third, fourth, or fifth for 103 of his 156 games on a team that scored 4.62 runs per game – fourth-most in baseball. In other words, there was some team-dependent good fortune baked into this season as opposed to a season like Manny Machado’s which showed major skill growth. No other shortstop scored more than 77 runs and only Brandon Crawford topped the RBI total with 84.

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Over the past weekend at the AFL First Pitch Forums held by BaseballHQ.com, I participated in my first draft for 2016. It’s an NFBC 50-round draft&hold. The first 23 rounds occurred there in Arizona and the final 27 will begin online in January. Since it is third base week, I figured it’d be fun to take a look at how an early run 2016 draft treated the pool of top 15 third basemen.

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Isn’t it nice when things work out? At the height of draft season, Nolan Arenado was elevated into the top 50 despite career-highs of 18 HR, 61 RBI, and 133 games played (and not all in the same season). It was a calculated gamble on someone who hadn’t exactly done it for a full season yet. He showed a ton of promise as a high-contact power hitter (13% K, .173 ISO coming into ’15) who also had the security blanket of Coors Field.

Of course, we now know that it really couldn’t have gone better and being drafted 50th was actually a bargain by season’s end as he finished as the 5th-best player overall. Arenado blasted an NL-best 42 HR and drove in an MLB-best 130 runs in 665 PA as he missed just five games all year. His strikeout rate was a career-high 17%, but that’s still better than most power hitters. Of the nine hitters who popped 40+ HR, he was third to only Albert Pujols (11%) and Jose Bautista (16%).

And yet… (yep, I actually have something to complain about within his excellent season)

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