02/20/20

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to Fangraphs! With a standard $20 membership, you help maintain and improve our database of stats and graphs as well as our staff of 8 full-time employees and over 50 contributors. The premium ad-free membership at $50 year supports site growth and also includes faster load speeds and better site performance. You can also support monthly for just $3.

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SPs Pt. 1 (1-30)

The Top 4

• Gerrit Cole, Jacob deGrom, Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer

Can I hang out with you guys?

• Walker Buehler

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After checking out the high end of the AL Central last time out, we turn our attention a little lower to the rebuilding Tigers who are still expected to be in the bottom two of the division but will start showing some fruits of their laborious rebuild.

OTHER TEAMS:

• Pittsburgh Pirates
• Seattle Mariners
• Houston Astros
• Baltimore Orioles
• Cincinnati Reds
• Los Angeles Angels
• Miami Marlins
• Minnesota Twins

3 QUESTIONS

Will Matt Manning and Casey Mize debut in 2020?

Assuming a measure of health, it looks like both young arms will make their MLB debuts in 2020. They aren’t going to break camp with the club, but they should be up in the summer sometime. Manning has usurped Mize, the former #1 overall pick, on our Tigers prospect list, though both are given 60 Future Value grades. A tremendous effort at Double-A saw Manning refine his three-pitch mix and once again shave down his walk rate, yielding a healthy 28% K rate and 7% BB rate in 133.7 innings. He’ll start the season at Triple-A and be at the ready for a call up as long as he continues to pitch like this.

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In an effort to lighten the load on Jeff for this fantastic series he started, I’ll be doing some MtN pieces during the spring.

Shohei Ohtani is targeting a mid-May return to the mound

Ohtani will open the 2020 season as a DH, Billy Eppler said. They’re targeting a mid-May return for him on the mound. The new rules let him rehab while remaining on the big league roster.

I had been hearing something to this effect on MLB Network recently just in passing from different analysts but without any concrete news so I wasn’t sure if it was their speculation or news. We now have the concrete news. Of course, given his excellent bat this isn’t a total disaster for us in the fantasy realm. In a weird twist, I might actually be moving him up my rankings since he’s locked in the lineup everyday for 6 weeks so he’ll pile up the hitting stats early and then shift into the pitcher/hitter hybrid over the last four and a half months.

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Prospects have become increasingly key to winning re-draft fantasy leagues. They’ve always been major in-season acquisitions, but now they are more prevalent than ever at the draft table. With more fantasy managers knowing the prospects who are likely to make an impact in that season, the battle for their services has become much more fervent, leading some to just stash them for a month or two rather than take the chance of being able to pluck them off the wire once they are called up and risk losing them.

These rankings are now available on The Board on the 2020 Fantasy Rankings tab, where you can also see Shelly Verougstraete’s Top Dynasty Rankings!

The average draft position (ADP) data used is for 12-team NFBC Online Championship leagues that have a standard 23-man roster and 7-man bench with no IL spots. 

1. Luis Robert | CHW, OF | Top 100: 7; ADP: 73

The dynamic outfielder is especially desirable on the fantasy landscape because the White Sox gave him a long-term contract ahead of his debut and guaranteed his roster spot from Opening Day. While the dream would be his 32 HR/36 SB/.326 AVG season from 2019 replicated at the big-league level, there’s plenty of wiggle room to deliver substantial profit while adjusting to the rigors of major league baseball. The premium speed and solid pop should keep him floor high.

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02/12/20

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to Fangraphs! With a standard $20 membership, you help maintain and improve our database of stats and graphs as well as our staff of 8 full-time employees and over 50 contributors. The premium ad-free membership at $50 year supports site growth and also includes faster load speeds and better site performance. You can also support monthly for just $3.

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2020 OUTFIELD PREVIEW Pt. 2

A little of everything… (1:30)

• Victor Robles
• Tommy Pham
• Ramón Laureano
• Luis Robert
• Jeff McNeil
• Eddie Rosario
• Andrew Benintendi
• Oscar Mercado
• Danny Santana

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OK, it’s time to start getting these going as I’ve fallen behind a bit due to an unexpectedly busy offseason.

OTHER TEAMS:

• Pittsburgh Pirates
• Seattle Mariners
• Houston Astros
• Baltimore Orioles
• Cincinnati Reds
• Los Angeles Angels
• Miami Marlins

3 QUESTIONS

Can Jake Odorizzi repeat his success?

Odorizzi was a standout pitcher in his second year with the Twins, posting a 3.51 ERA and 1.21 WHIP in 159 innings. He even made the All-Star team. In his debut with the Twins back in 2018, he had a 4.49 ERA and the Twins likely realized one key issue with the right-hander: he couldn’t go deep into games. His OPS was .627 the first time through, .659 the second time, and then soared to 1.159 the third time.

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02/10/20

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to Fangraphs! With a standard $20 membership, you help maintain and improve our database of stats and graphs as well as our staff of 8 full-time employees and over 50 contributors. The premium ad-free membership at $50 year supports site growth and also includes faster load speeds and better site performance. You can also support monthly for just $3.

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• @sporer – Host
• @justinmasonfwfb – Co-Host/Producer

NOTABLE TRANSACTIONS/INJURIES/RUMORS

• Mookie Betts deal final
• BARF league review

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Transcript is below!

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The New York Yankees announced that top starter James Paxton will be out at least 3-4 months after undergoing a microscopic lumbar discectomy to remove a peridiscal cyst. It’s absolutely brutal news for the 31-year old lefty, who has battled injuries throughout his career as Jay Jaffe outlined in his piece about the injury. It does look like the timeline is for his return to the field so late-May/early-June is the target, but I’d plan for mid-to-late June just to be safe.

In leagues with IL spots, I have no real issue stashing him, even if it were for the full three months of the regular season. His price will plummet, and you need to decide where you’re comfortable grabbing him as a stash. There was only one NFBC draft last night after the news and he went 224th, which put him around the likes of Ian Kennedy, Giovanny Gallegos, and Griffin Canning as far as pitchers. Now it’s worth noting that the NFBC doesn’t have IL spots so anyone drafting him must eat one of their seven reserve spots.

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02/05/20

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to Fangraphs! With a standard $20 membership, you help maintain and improve our database of stats and graphs as well as our staff of 8 full-time employees and over 50 contributors. The premium ad-free membership at $50 year supports site growth and also includes faster load speeds and better site performance. You can also support monthly for just $3.

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• @sporer – Host/Producer
• @justinmasonfwfb – Co-Host

Paul and Justin take you through their entire LABR Mixed league draft. You can find the full results here:

• Draft Board
• Tweet thread

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