Author Archive

Tommy Edman’s Failed SB Attempts

Tommy Edman is fast.

Like, really fast.

He has been 97th and 95th percentile in Sprint Speed over his two MLB seasons. In that time, he has posted a healthy 77% SB success rate with 17 SBs in 22 attempts. But that rate took a big hit in 2020 as he was just 2-for-6 in the shortened season (15-for-16 in 2019). Before you hit the comments letting me know that Sprint Speed isn’t as well correlated to SBs as home-to-first time, I will point out that Edman did slip there from 4.12 to 4.20, but that’s still firmly a plus runner per Jeff’s chart in the linked article.

I found it so weird that such a speedy guy with sharp base running acumen (84% SB% in MiLB) had such a dreadful rate so I had to investigate the four times he was caught to see what happened. I do wonder how much of his 2020 numbers is holding down his SB projections for 2021 as virtually all systems have him with a teens total despite an obvious role and gobs of speed. So let’s see what happened.

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The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 897 – Ohtani Throwing Smoke; AL East Closers

2/25/21

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to our Patreon!!

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NOTABLE TRANSACTIONS/INJURIES/RUMORS

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2021 Re-Draft Top 25/Dynasty Top 200

Prospects have become increasingly key to winning re-draft fantasy leagues. They have always been major in-season acquisitions, but now they are more prevalent than ever at the draft table. With more fantasy managers knowing the prospects who are likely to make an impact in that season, the battle for their services has become much more fervent, leading some to just stash them for a month or two rather than take the chance of being able to pluck them off the wire once they are called up and risk losing them.

These rankings are now available on The Board on the 2021 Fantasy Rankings tab, where you can also see the Top 200 Dynasty Rankings!

The average draft position (ADP) data used is for 12-team NFBC Online Championship leagues that have a standard 23-man roster and 7-man bench with no IL spots.

Randy Arozarena | TB, OF | Top 100: 4; ADP: 58

Arozarena’s playoff run (10 HR, 1.273 OPS in 86 PA) is getting all the attention, but it is worth noting that he put together a great 1.022 OPS with 7 HR and 4 SB in his 76 PA during the regular season. Throw in a healthy set of projections that have him flirting with or putting up a 20/20 type season, and the 26-year old has surged into the top six rounds of most drafts, regardless of size. The surprising jump in power production did bring a hefty 29% K% in the regular season, though he trimmed it to 22% in the playoffs, and that rate seems more likely given his minor league track record. The power/speed production gives him a strong floor even if the strikeouts are more of a problem than anticipated. The price is high, but the upside is massive and at 26 years old, he is close to being a finished product.

Ian Anderson | ATL, SP | Top 100: 13; ADP: 104

It is hard to have a better debut than what Anderson managed in both the regular season and the playoffs. He steamrolled through six starts in the regular season with a 1.95 ERA and 1.08 WHIP across 32 IP only to then drop 16.7 innings of scoreless ball in the playoffs before the Dodgers finally clipped him for a pair of runs in the third inning of his Game 7 NLCS start. I am a sucker for a prospect arm with a strong changeup and Anderson’s is the best pitch in his arsenal. Eric graded it as a 70 while the fastball and curveball are both average or better, aided by a deceptive delivery that kept batters off balance. He is a key piece for the Braves and there is no reason to believe he won’t break camp with the club. Read the rest of this entry »


The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 895 – Rosy to OAK, JTR Kinda Broke, and KC No Longer a Joke?

2/18/21

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to our Patreon!!

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NOTABLE TRANSACTIONS/INJURIES/RUMORS

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Paul Sporer’s Top 100 Outfielders

Outfield is one of those positions that always feels deep just because of the star power at the top, but of course leagues generally require 3-5 starting OFs plus the many multi-positional players plucked from the OF pool to play other positions.

I’ll have an update in early March to account for any moves, news, and/or injuries. Let me know what you think in the comments: how are you building your OF plan? do you stack a few early on or play the middle tiers? who is your sleeper at the position?

Other positions:

Here’s my list.

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Paul Sporer’s Top 50 Third Basemen

I like the hot corner this year. There is a superstar top tier, some up-and-comers, some quality depth, and plenty of deeper league options.

I’ll have an update in early March to account for any moves, news, and/or injuries. Let me know what you think in the comments: how are you building your 3B plan? do you want an extra 3B for CI or do you prefer 1B? who is your sleeper at the position?

Here’s my list.

Other positions:

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The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 893 – Beni Deal and Volatile Pitchers

2/11/21

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to our Patreon!!

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NOTABLE TRANSACTIONS/INJURIES/RUMORS

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Paul Sporer’s Top 50 Shortstops

Shortstop is a rich position with 12 of them are going in the Top 100 picks during winter drafts with 9 of those slotting Top 40 or better. I think 2B actually has a bit more depth with some big overlap in the middle globs that carries into the 40s as far as draftable players (assuming deep leagues, obviously) whereas shortstop starts to peter out around the mid-30s.

I’ll have an update in early March to account for any moves, news, and/or injuries. Let me know what you think in the comments: how are you building your SS plan? do you want an extra SS for MI or do you prefer 2B? who is your sleeper at the position?

Here’s my list.

Other positions:

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Paul Sporer’s Top 55 Second Basemen

The keystone is an interesting position in 2021. It definitely has some depth that you really start to see once you get in the trenches and start drafting. There are also a ton of bargain versions of players where they are slightly worse and thus projections are a bit lower, but their talent profiles are close enough that you have a real shot to spike the star-level season from the cheaper version. This isn’t unique to 2B and I’ll likely point it out in a few comments in the upcoming SS and 3B rankings, but it was almost unavoidable here as I saw it popping it up a lot.

I’ll have an update in early March to account for any moves, news, and/or injuries. Let me know what you think in the comments: how are you building your 2B plan? do you want an extra 2B for MI or do you prefer SS? who is your sleeper at the position?

Here’s my list.

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The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 892 – Mid-Tier SP Talk

2/9/21

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to our Patreon!!

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NOTABLE TRANSACTIONS/INJURIES/RUMORS

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