This might be something fantasy baseball players accept. Jon Lester posted a 2.46 ERA, a 1.10 WHIP, and 220 strikeouts in 2014. He finished as the sixth-best starting pitcher, per Zach Sanders’ end-of-season rankings at the position.

But maybe some rotisserie and head-to-head managers don’t. After all, Lester was the preseason consensus No. 44 SP at RotoGraphs. He outdid his FIP, xFIP, and SIERA by more than half of a run. This past season was awesome. Its awesomeness is distinctly different from the results in his past couple of seasons. He hadn’t been about this awesome since 2009 and 2010 – coupling 220-plus strikeouts with an ERA that was at least 25% better than league average. His numbers have never looked as good as they did this year. His average velocities dropped a tad this past season. There’s room for doubt.

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Episode 181

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!

Eno Sarris and Nicholas Minnix talk about, among other newsy topics, the trade of Josh Donaldson for Brett Lawrie, Franklin Barreto, and others, as well as the Nelson Cruz, Kyle Seager, Yasmany Tomas, and Torii Hunter agreements. We also delve into end-of-season SP rankings, which went up on Monday. We discuss Julio Teheran, Andrew Cashner, Drew Hutchison, and the faulty top-25 pitchers on the list.

As usual, don’t hesitate to tweet us or comment with fantasy questions so that we may answer them in our next episode.

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Lance Lynn did it. He held down left-handed batters a little more often in 2014. Those freaks hit .243/.325/.372 in 378 plate appearances, for a .314 wOBA (26 points better than last year’s rate, which was also an upgrade to the previous season’s), against the St. Louis Cardinals’ right-hander this year. That, my friends, is about league average for batters from the north. And that is really all this hurler needed in order for him to be good instead of fantasy-league-average, or even league-average. He overcame his fatal flaw.

As a result, Lynn was, for fantasy baseball players, a top-25 starting pitcher by the standards of Sr. Zach Sanders. Overall, the pitcher struck out men less frequently this year, but he still fanned more than 20% of those he faced, and, once again, he also walked them less often. These leaps forward helped him to post a 2.74 ERA, a 1.26 WHIP, and, yet again, 15 wins. He earned double-digit dollars in mixed leagues in a season for the first time.

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The 2014 season was a cruel one for Justin Verlander. To the fantasy baseball players who owned him for most of it and drafted, bought, kept, or traded for the formerly elite right-hander, the 2014 season felt approximately as cruel.

The pitcher surely expected more after a relatively – extra emphasis on relatively – disappointing 2013 effort that saw his walk rate jump above 8% and his average heat velocity dip below 94 mph for the first time since 2008 on his way to a 3.46 ERA and 1.31 WHIP. He and fantasy owners didn’t get it, though. The 4.54 ERA (117 ERA-, his worst mark in the category since his debut season), 1.40 WHIP, and 17.8% strikeout rate tell the tale of a mostly abysmal season, in fact.

Now what? The last time Verlander had fantasy owners this puzzled was, incidentally, after his 2008 campaign. The next year turned out to be pretty good. That hurler was 26, however, and his four-seam fastball averaged 95.6 mph. This guy will be 32, and … who knows?

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Episode 180

Happy Thanksgiving! The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!

Eno Sarris and Nicholas Minnix talk about, among other newsy topics, the Boston Red Sox’s signings of Pablo Sandoval and Hanley Ramirez as well as the Chicago White Sox’s notable addition, Adam LaRoche. We also delve into a few listener questions presented to us on Twitter or in the comments – debates about keepers, things like that. We then put a bow on the discussion of end-of-season OF rankings, which went up a couple of weeks ago.

As usual, don’t hesitate to tweet us or comment with fantasy questions so that we may answer them in our next episode.

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The Milwaukee Brewers’ outfield is home to a pair of highly sought outfielders in fantasy baseball leagues. Khris Davis, after a .279/.353/.596 showing in 153 plate appearances in 2013, was the clear favorite to hold down the third spot coming into the 2014 campaign. He was a pretty popular sleeper (among outfielders, ADP: 46^th, RotoGraphs consensus rank: 43^rd) as well.

For the most part, he didn’t disappoint. Davis finished 40^th among outfielders in money earned thanks to his .244/.299/.457 slash line, with 22 home runs and four stolen bases, in 549 PAs. Fantasy owners, especially those in OBP leagues who probably took a bit of a loss, might have hoped for a little more, but the left fielder’s traditional rotisserie production was a clear win, even if it wasn’t much of one.

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The Kansas City Royals made a surprise run to the World Series this year. Lorenzo Cain was a significant factor in that outcome, relatively speaking. Jeff Sullivan welcomed the center and right fielder to stardom last month. (The anecdote at the beginning is priceless!) The 2014 ALCS MVP kind of arrived.

Fantasy baseball players found Cain to be pretty likable, too. He hit .301 with five home runs, 55 runs, 53 RBIs, and 28 stolen bases. He was the 100^th outfielder taken, on average, around the main roto/head-to-head Webiverse, according to Fantasy Pros. His average preseason ranking from the four horsemen was 82^nd. He finished 37^th, per Zach Sanders’ end-of-season outfield rankings, in roto money earned. That’s tidy profit.

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Episode 179

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!

Eno Sarris and Nicholas Minnix talk about, among other newsy topics, the Jason Heyward–Shelby Miller swap and the signings of Billy Butler and Russell Martin. Of course, we also discuss outfielders! The end-of-season OF rankings went up a week ago this past Monday. Those visited in this episode: Jayson Werth, Christian Yelich, Starling Marte, J.D. Martinez, and Billy Hamilton. The topics inevitably lead us to converse about strategy, and as a result we answer a listener question that had been waiting patiently.

As usual, don’t hesitate to tweet us or comment with fantasy questions so that we may answer them in our next episode.

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And by does it, I mean that he doesn’t. Unless we’re talking about disappointing fantasy baseball players, in which case: repeat performance. The Tampa Bay Rays’ center fielder hit .244 with 10 home runs and 15 stolen bases in 542 plate appearances in a dull campaign. He finished the season on the disabled list, of course, so if we extrapolate to 600 PAs, which is about how many he accumulated in the season prior, then he’d have recorded 11 homers, 71 runs, 40 RBIs, and 17 thefts, all of which are about … worse than how many he accumulated in the season prior.

Why does Desmond Jennings continue to disappoint? It’s a valid question. It may not have a simple answer. But, just as well, it might.

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I don’t think that there’s much to analyze about Leonys Martin the player. The Texas Rangers’ center fielder isn’t a great player. On offense, he’s not even a good player, at least in terms of his weighted value as a hitter. He’s just a player, one who happened to be, based on his ADP (according to Fantasy Pros and his RotoGraphs preseason rank) compared to Zach Sanders’ end-of-season standings at the position, properly “valued” this past season.

Martin the fantasy baseball asset is a slightly different case. He batted .274 with seven home runs and 31 stolen bases. He earned about $12 this season in a typical 12-team mixed league. Judging from his typical cost in CBS leagues and the NFBC as well as the rankings of a couple of folks on the RotoGraphs preseason rankings panel (see here), some fantasy baseball players had hoped for a bit more, it seems.

This is the type of player who’d be on my secondary or tertiary target list next season. Here’s why.

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