Author Archive

Yet Again in Lieu of “The Sleeper and the Bust”

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” will not go live in this post. We convened on Thursday, but the audio was substandard. We’re working on a solution to roadblocks in our recording setup.

Eno Sarris and I talked about some of the higher-level newsworthy items of the past couple of weeks. We also talked about a couple of requests. This post will give you the gist of the content we covered in what would have been Episode 185. I’m saving the requests so that you’ll get to listen to them, eventually, though. Look for the newest episode in the coming week.

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A.J. Preller Allays Allure of Petco Park Pitchers

The San Diego Padres have probably created more buzz than any other Major League Baseball team this offseason. New GM A.J. Preller added to his club a few position players who are pretty good in fantasy baseball terms – a couple of them really good, a couple of them who could be (but could also not be). The change in home venue for each doesn’t really affect his projection on offense negatively, either. The new guys all used to play in pretty pitcher-friendly yards.

A cool fantasy baseball thing related to the new guys’ pitcher-friendly yard, Petco Park, is that it has long helped its team to be a sort of fantasy goldmine. When fantasy baseball players search for pitching sleepers and fliers, they usually check San Diego’s roster for youngsters, retreads, and anyone else the Friars might give a shot that year. Petco Park has always had good park factors for hurlers, and the club’s coaching staffs (latest edition led by manager Bud Black and pitching coach Darren Balsley) have good reputations, too.

Now, :-(. The source of the Padres’ newfound buzz will make the cool fantasy baseball thing less cool. Perhaps a lot less.

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RotoGraphs Audio: The Sleeper and the Bust 12/21/2014

Episode 184

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!

And Jason Collette is back! He and Nicholas Minnix talk about, among other players in the news, Wil Myers, Derek Norris, Will Middlebrooks, and other new Padres; Max Fried; Kevin Jepsen, Steven Souza, and other new Rays; Michael Morse, Martin Prado, and other new Marlins; Nathan Eovaldi; and Jesse Hahn. Don’t worry: There’s a cursory mention of Justin Upton.

As usual, don’t hesitate to tweet us or comment with fantasy questions so that we may answer them in our next episode.

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Gavin Floyd with the Indians

The Cleveland Indians have brought in Gavin Floyd on a one-year contract. He’s guaranteed $4 million and could make another $6 million in incentives, according to multiple sources of that news. That kind of money basically guarantees the right-hander a spot in the Tribe’s rotation.

Fantasy baseball players’ questions about Floyd for 2015 likely have to do with his health and performance this past season. He seemed to demonstrate some real positives (a 2.65 ERA, 19.7 K%, and 5.7 BB%) with the Atlanta Braves in his 2014 return from Tommy John surgery. A fractured bone in his pitching elbow cut this particular triumph short, however.

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RotoGraphs Audio: The Sleeper and the Bust 12/16/2014

Episode 183

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!

Eno Sarris and Nicholas Minnix talk about, among other players in the news, Matt Kemp, Melky Cabrera, Dee Gordon, Yoenis Cespedes, Rick Porcello, Mat Latos, Andrew Heaney, Jed Lowrie, and Ervin Santana. Eno also segues us into an answer to a listener’s question about the potentially exciting future of Brandon Finnegan.

As usual, don’t hesitate to tweet us or comment with fantasy questions so that we may answer them in our next episode.

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Gio Gonzalez Throws Curve with Change?

Like, not that he’s throwing his curveball with his changeup, at the same time, although that’d be a cool trick (and probably the toughest pitch to hit in baseball). Like, maybe Gio Gonzalez wants to throw his changeup more often, and that has thrown the Washington Nationals, his outcomes, and/or fantasy baseball players for a bit of a loop.

Gonzalez’s overall numbers (a 3.57 ERA, 24.8 K%, 8.6 BB%, and 1.20 WHIP) weren’t too shabby. His ERA was notably worse than his FIP for the first time since 2009, though. You might even look at the career-worst BABIP against him in a season of at least 100 innings (.294) and LOB% (71.0) and say, Oh, that’s just a little bad luck, sign me up next time!

That’ll probably work out, but I hope to find a little more of the why. I’ve started to wonder if Gonzalez didn’t also have a bit of a transition/growth period in 2014 as he began to prepare himself for his 30s. Maybe he’ll be better and a little more dependable.

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The Uncomplicated Francisco Liriano

Many fantasy baseball players don’t readily like or even accept Francisco Liriano. He walks too many guys, a lot of them say, and he’s a major health risk. He’s unreliable and difficult to predict, they probably feel.

All those things are true, but probably not quite to the extent that some rotisserie and head-to-head owners believe them to be. Perhaps even before they had become less true since Liriano joined the Pittsburgh Pirates, but at least after that event. All those things have generally helped to depress his cost, even since that move, as well. That should remain true after a season in which he finished 71st among starting pitchers in Zach Sanders’ end-of-season rankings for the position and has rejoined the Bucs. That’s a good thing.

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RotoGraphs Audio: The Sleeper and the Bust 12/10/2014

Episode 182

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!

Eno Sarris (live from MLB’s Winter Meetings) and Nicholas Minnix talk about, among other players in the news, Jon Lester, Jeff Samardzija, Jimmy Rollins, Brandon Moss, Jung-Ho Kang, and David Robertson. Eno also touches on his answer to a listener’s question about spin rates.

As usual, don’t hesitate to tweet us or comment with fantasy questions so that we may answer them in our next episode.

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Alex Cobb: Approximation of an Ace?

Some fantasy baseball players here and there, sort of, in a way, kind of think that already. But they may not be eager to draft Alex Cobb like one, and they shouldn’t need to do so. In terms of performance, there haven’t been too many hurlers better in the last couple of years. He finished 34th in Zach Sanders’ end-of-season rankings for the position. The right-hander has yet to pitch even 170 innings in a single campaign at any level, however. He likely doesn’t strike the populace as dependable.

There really isn’t a need to make the case that Cobb is good. Fantasy owners know that he’s good. But would they call him an ace? Probably not. For now, then, I’ll call him a pseudo ace.

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Jake Odorizzi: from Breakthrough to Breakout?

This past spring, Jake Odorizzi had an opportunity, but not much in the way of expectations from fantasy baseball players. He hadn’t yet been exceptional at anything. There had existed a decent chance that he would eventually lose his rotation spot. For the first couple of months of the season, he struggled in each outing after his first time through the opposition’s lineup. Rotisserie owners might even consider his 76th-place finish in Zach Sanders’ end-of-season rankings for starting pitchers a bit of a coup. According to the list, he earned a buck – on the nose. How exciting.

But Odorizzi also did something interesting: strike people out more frequently. He finished with a 4.13 ERA and 1.29 WHIP, but the 174 K’s (24.2 K%) in 168 innings were quite nice. They lowered the right-hander’s FIP, xFIP, and SIERA, naturally, to more eye-catching figures and raised the level of interest of the fantasy population. How great should that interest be in 2015?

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