Author Archive

Negative Differences in K-BB% with Men on Base: Alex Cobb

Chris Cwik’s piece on Tyler Skaggs and the tough times the southpaw has endured while men are on base prompted me to wonder about that aspect of pitching. Which hurlers have performed differently, at least in terms of some typically advanced statistics, after hitters have reached base? What might we ascertain from what we discover?

Generally, when a pitcher pitches while men are on base, we assume that he works from the stretch. Therefore, if a starter is considerably less effective after a hitter has reached base against him, we may hypothesize that the hurler struggles while he pitches from the stretch. However, that isn’t necessarily true, because the pitcher may do things such as change his pitch mix in order to achieve a different type of result against a future hitter. Still, we can begin to make conjectures.

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Relative Waiver Wire: Josh Rutledge, Robbie Ray

There have been some decent pickups at the middle-infield positions lately for those who play fantasy baseball games. This is nice. The latest recommendation of one of those types doesn’t figure to have much of a shelf life, so the depth of the rotisserie or head-to-head league should figure into a fantasy owner’s decision of whether and how to pursue him. The other rec may be nothing about which to be excited, any time soon, but somewhere, somehow, it probably plays.

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RotoGraphs Audio: The Sleeper and the Bust 07/22/2014

Episode 145

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is now live! Eno Sarris and Nicholas Minnix discuss the Chase Headley trade; trade rumors (and the fantasy implications of them) involving A.J. Burnett, John Danks, and the relievers on the market; what Michael Cuddyer’s possible return might mean; the latest trips to the DL, among them Matt Cain’s; the Toronto Blue Jays’ call-up of Aaron Sanchez; interesting news about Garrett Richards and Jason Kipnis; and bits on some requested topics, comprised of observations on Justin Verlander (you may want to hear this), Adam Wainwright, Dallas Keuchel, and Chris Coghlan.

As usual, don’t hesitate to tweet us or comment with fantasy questions so that we may answer them on our next episode.

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Yasmani Grandal Adjusts Stance, Maybe Outlook

Three months ago to the day, I wrote about a couple of catchers whose rates of ownership in fantasy baseball leagues, I felt, should have been increasing based on some early-season positives, albeit from a limited data sample. Josmil Pinto turned out to be a pretty justifiable inclusion for a little while, but Yasmani Grandal appears to have been a misguided recommendation. You win some, you lose some.

I haven’t given up on Grandal, but I’d begun to lose hope. His strikeout rate remained significantly greater than his career standard, whereas I expected (hope for) some regression. The San Diego Padres croucher’s fantasy production took a nosedive about a week into May and hadn’t come up for air. I came across some new stuff on him not long ago, something to follow. But I wasn’t sure what to make of the information at the time, and without a deeper look, more data or both, I wasn’t about to draw a conclusion or feel a jolt of optimism.

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RotoGraphs Audio: The Sleeper and the Bust 07/20/2014

Episode 144

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is now live! Jason Collette and Nicholas Minnix discuss, among other things, the Houston Astros’ failure to sign Brady Aiken; trade rumors (and the fantasy implications of them) regarding such players as David Price, Chase Utley, and A.J. Burnett; the big news of the weekend, aka the trade of Huston Street, and what it might mean for Joaquin Benoit; the Cleveland Indians’ rotation quandaries; Shelby Miller; Austin Jackson’s move to the leadoff spot; and a host of players returning in the next week or two.

As usual, don’t hesitate to tweet us or comment with fantasy questions so that we may answer them on our next episode.

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RotoGraphs Audio: The Sleeper and the Bust 07/17/2014

Episode 143

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is now live! RotoGraphs writer Brett Talley steps into the lineup with Nicholas Minnix to discuss the Seattle Mariners’ apparent interest in David Price and Ben Zobrist; a breakdown in talks for Ian Kennedy; and a trade rumor about Jonathan Papelbon. We then talk about players returning from absences: Jean Segura, Starling Marte, Evan Gattis, Emilio Bonifacio, Shane Victorino, Carlos Ruiz, and Geovany Soto. We discuss the health situations of Joey Votto, Miguel Cabrera, and Jordan Zimmermann. We then briefly get into some news about Kevin Gausman and Taijuan Walker before closing with a couple of previously requested pitchers, Yordano Ventura and Marcus Stroman.

As usual, don’t hesitate to tweet us or comment with fantasy questions so that we may answer them on our next episode.

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My Favorite Set of Categories

I’ve discussed fantasy baseball categories in this space on the last few Thursdays. Certain aspects of the traditional rotisserie formats (4×4 and 5×5) don’t appeal to me. I’m not a big fan of the fact that hitters and pitchers are valued a bit differently in traditional formats because hitters have only one ratio category and pitchers have two. That’s the main reason for my preferred 5×5 format.

I dislike the perceptible randomness of wins and, sort of similarly, saves and holds for pitchers. They are team-context stats, unlike runs and RBIs to hitters, for example, which aren’t necessarily reflections of a player’s skill. But the production of them does increase their team’s chances to win a little, just more or less depending on the context of the game. I’d prefer a couple of pitching statistics that can represent a pitcher’s contribution to his team’s chance to win a game a little more closely than wins, saves and holds do. Not everyone does, but I think that there are others who do, too.

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Relative Waiver Wire: Juan Francisco, Trevor Cahill

Downtime. Major leaguers have some right now. Most of us fantasy baseball players need some, at some point. Today’s first entry had been getting some a little more regularly because the appropriate teammates of his were healthy. Today’s second entry hasn’t really had much because his organization wanted him to continue to pitch, just not for the parent club, understandably.

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RotoGraphs Audio: The Sleeper and the Bust 07/15/2014

Episode 142

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is now live! Eno Sarris and Nicholas Minnix discuss the Baltimore Orioles’ rotation in light of its flux and the potential that they trade for an arm, as well as the Kansas City Royals’ outfield, specifically the battle for PT between Norichika Aoki and Jarrod Dyson.

We also pick up a few requests: Eric Hosmer, Jean Segura, and Hector Santiago. We talk Trevor Cahill’s prospects now that he’s back in the Arizona Diamondbacks’ rotation. We talk a couple of recent trade rumors. And we talk All-Star Game festivities, including Eno’s favorite observations from the Futures Game.

As usual, don’t hesitate to tweet us or comment with fantasy questions so that we may answer them on our next episode.

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A More Aggressive Travis d’Arnaud

It seems to be fair to say that most fantasy baseball gamers didn’t have high expectations for Travis d’Arnaud this season. The New York Mets’ backstop went undrafted in nearly all rotisserie and head-to-head leagues at Yahoo! and ESPN. His CBS ownership rate in the first week of the season was 63%. I surmise that the numbers basically placed him near the fringe of indifference in two-catcher mixed leagues, where he still resides, for the most part.

I thought that it was a tad surprising. Granted, d’Arnaud slashed .202/.286/.263 in the 112 plate appearances that made up his MLB debut in 2013, but peripheral numbers suggested that his control of the strike zone was good. His bat speed is considered top-notch. Plus, he was still a top prospect. Most who do the fantasy thing like prospects, don’t they? I don’t have and didn’t want any shares then, but I figured that someone did.

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