You have your guys. The ones you’ve followed through the years, have watched struggle and defended at each stumble, the ones you feel are this close to showing the world what you know is inside them.

Mike Clevinger is one of my guys.

It’s been a journey since his 2016 MLB debut, a game where he allowed 4 ER to the Reds in 5.1 innings. Many saw a young arm that didn’t deserve a second glance on the wire. I saw a 13.2% whiff rate, a near 95mph fastball velocity, and a trio of strong secondary pitches. I was hooked.

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By most metrics, Jeff Samardzija had himself a career year in 2017. His strikeout rate hinted a 25% clip, he featured a minuscule 3.8% walk rate, and his 1.14 WHIP was the second best mark of his career.

What did have to show for it? An obtuse 4.42 ERA that seems unjust for such strong peripherals, fueled by a ghastly 1.30 HR/9 mark and a 13.8% HR/FB rate.

Can Samardzija lower his home run rate? If he does, can we assume that Samardzija will keep near the same strikeout and walk rates and hint at his 3.63 SIERA? Was there something in his approach that suggested he should allow six extra tates or should we just cough it up to “juiced balls” and the state of the game?

This is where it gets fun.

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It can be a struggle in deep leagues to fill out the final arms in your staff. Instead of talking about popular targets to chase in the middle rounds, I’m going to highlight ten starters to consider when searching for the final arms of your 15-teamer staff.

I originally set the ADP threshold at past the 300 mark, but I elected to dive a little deeper, setting the bar at 350 instead. That means guys I’d recommend targetting like Mike Minor, Dan Straily, German Marquez, Mike Leake, and Matt Shoemaker are off the list. This is legit deep, not that weak stuff.
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Last week I wanted to discuss the chance that Kyle Gibson becomes fantasy relevant in 2018 despite going undrafted everywhere and destined for your waiver wire. In the same light, it’s time to talk about Joe Biagini, the Toronto Blue Jays arm that seems oh-so-close to becoming a stable choice across the board.

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There are times I write about pitchers that I truly believe in. The ones that seem destined to break through the filter of mediocrity and into the spotlight of the masses. Kyle Gibson is not one of these pitchers.

But he did do something in 2017 that I think you should know about. It could be a gamechanger, it could be nothing, but it was at least something, and let’s be honest, that’s a lot more than we expected when talking about career 4.70 ERA and 16.0% strikeout rate Kyle Gibson.

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Do you believe in Trevor Bauer? The Cleveland pitcher has been a polarizing arm since he’s stepped onto a major league field, never holding an ERA under 4.00 across four seasons of 25+ starts paired with a WHIP above 1.30, but Bauer continues to raise eyebrows with 20%+ strikeout rates and stretches where he flashes Top 20 SP ability. We all want him to succeed, but it seems everyone has a story behind why they simply can’t back him.

I’m not here to preach 2018 Bauer as the potential Top 20 SP that was promised nor that his previous struggles should demote him to the bottom of your draft boards. I’m here to tell you that Bauer may have grown in 2017 more than you realize. Read the rest of this entry »

This offseason, I’m taking the time to study the arms that deserve a little bit of extra attention. Sure, every starter should get a bit more than your standard gloss over, but you know Max Scherzer is a top tier starter and you’re aware that Andrew Cashner will not come close to repeating his 3.40 ERA. I can also imagine that Jose Quintana will be getting this standard treatment by many. You’re going to have some that consider him a stable arm and grab him as a #2 SP and you have others – myself included – that treat him as someone who will wait to see him fall before considering him for your staff.

But that was the old me. Quintana made a significant tweak in his approach this season and I didn’t know any better.

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I didn’t care for Collin McHugh for the first half of 2017. You probably didn’t care for Collin McHugh. Why would we? He was returning mid-season from an impingement in his throwing elbow and tendinitis in his shoulder after he held a 4.34 ERA and 1.41 WHIP over 184.2 frames the previous year. It was an investment that just wasn’t worth your time…or so we thought. Instead of mediocrity, McHugh was quietly productive in his 12 starts – 3.55 ERA (3.82 FIP), 22.9% K rate, and a 1.29 WHIP across 63.1 innings. Not studly or game-changing, but nor the disaster we forecasted. This may be chalked up to being a fluke as his numbers aren’t so far off from his large 2016 workload, but I think there was something here that you should be aware of.

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The season is coming to a close and we’re looking for that one extra start to put us over the edge. Jordan Montgomery is fresh off two 6.0 IP outings with just 1 ER total between them, slated to make the final start of the regular season on Sunday. With his 26.0% ownership rate in ESPN Leagues, he’s a possible late add that could save your season and you may be wondering if you should pull the trigger. Let’s dive into Montgomery’s latest start – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BB, 5 Ks against the Rays – to see if he really deserved the impressive results.

Curveball

Entering this outing, Montgomery turned to his Curveball 25.8% of the time across his 28 starts in the majors. It’s a good pitch, holds the highest pVal in his repertoire (8.7), and is hard for batters to handle with its big break starting at one of the highest release points in the majors: Read the rest of this entry »

Entering Monday’s bout with the Cubs, Luke Weaver was a popular topic of discussion. Boasting a 2.05 ERA, 11.11 K/9, 1.88 BB/9, and minuscule 1.03 WHIP through 52.2 innings, the 24-year-old was debated as a possible Top 30 starter for the 2018 season ahead. However, after the 3.0 IP, 8 ER outing, Weaver’s ERA inflated to 3.23, leaving some to wonder if his success was a mirage.

It’s the one blemish on Weaver’s resume that will be discussed plenty in the off-season, and I wanted to get a head start as we begin mock drafts and selecting keepers for the following year. I’ve watched every pitch Weaver threw during this game and join me as I dissect what went wrong across three turbulent innings. Read the rest of this entry »