On Sunday night, the Rays reportedly agreed to trade Blake Snell to the Padres for a collection of youngsters. With a career 3.24 ERA/3.91 SIERA, Snell makes for a strong addition to the Padres starting pitching staff. But aside from the potential change in offensive and defensive support, how might the switch in home park affect Snell’s results? Let’s check the park factors.
In 2019, former Pirates first baseman Josh Bell enjoyed a breakout season. His wOBA spiked from the high .330 range to .378, while his ISO settled just below .300, thanks to a HR/FB rate that surged above 20% for the first time. Unfortunately, he failed to effectively follow up that performance during this year’s shortened season, as his overall power plummeted (even though his HR/FB rate held onto the majority of its 2019 gains), while his strikeout rate skyrocketed well above 20% for the first time. Given his poor defense, all it took was a poor 223 plate appearances at the plate for the Pirates to jettison him, as he now lands in Washington to take over first base duties for the Nationals. Let’s check the park factors to see how the park switch might affect his results.
Back in late March, I discussed six of 2019’s biggest breakouts, as defined by gain in end of season dollar value as calculated here. Obviously, reviewing how these six players ended up performing in 2020 is pretty silly considering we only played 60 games, amounting to just 37% of a regular full season. I’m going to do it anyway, because it’s still fun for me to look back to see how I did on the many calls I made. So let’s find out how the six 2019 breakouts performed in terms of generating fantasy value and whether I was right or wrong in calling them REAL (2020 EOS $$ was within $10 of 2019 EOS $$) or a BUST ((2020 EOS $$ was $10 or more below 2019 EOS $$).
After a disappointing 139 plate appearances over this short season, Hunter Renfroe has signed a one-year deal with the Red Sox to take over as the team’s starting right fielder. Let’s consult the park factors to learn how the soon-to-be 29-year-old’s performance may be affected.
On Saturday, reports indicate that 30-year-old catcher James McCann has agreed to a four-year deal with the Mets. He heads to The Big Apple after two seasons with the White Sox. Let’s check out the park factors to determine how the park switch might affect his offensive performance.
Last Thursday, Adam Eaton officially signed a one-year contract with the White Sox to take over as their starting right fielder. The now 32-year-old is coming off a massively disappointing short season, as his wOBA dipped below .300. Will the park switch help fuel an offensive rebound? Let’s consult the park factors.
On Tuesday, Carlos Santana signed a two-year deal with the Royals, likely to take over as their starting first baseman, with the occasional start at DH I’m sure. The move pushes Hunter Dozier back to third base and essentially signals that the team has given up on Ryan O’Hearn. Let’s find out how the change in home ball park might affect his performance.
Yesterday, I used batter Hard% as the first example of why using averages might be deceiving. Along with an explanation as to why, I listed and discussed 15 hitters whose fly ball Hard% most exceeded their overall Hard%. Let’s now shift to the other side and identify and discuss the hitters whose FB Hard% settled most below overall Hard%. These are the hitters whose home run power was actually worse than overall Hard% suggests.
As more and more advanced metrics are publicized and used in analysis and discussion, opportunity for misuse and misinterpretation of these statistics continues to increase. First, remember that a statistic is a fact. The metric in and of itself isn’t wrong or bad, but rather the use and interpretation might be. Some metrics are easier to misinterpret than others. One such metric type is the use of an average, which applies to many metrics. Averages are fine if used properly. For example, we could say a .350 hitter recorded more hits per at-bat than a .300 hitter, but we absolutely cannot say that the .350 hitter is better than the .300 hitter, solely using the difference in batting average as the determining factor.
Back on November 24, Charlie Morton signed a one-year deal with the Braves, as he makes his return to the National League, where he last pitched back in 2016. Of course, back then things were quite a bit different, like no designated hitter, which is something we expect to remain permanent in the NL moving forward. So there is now little different between leagues, and Morton’s isn’t going to get any boost, since he won’t be facing a pitcher at the plate. That said, let’s dive into the park factors to see how the park change might affect his performance.
