Let’s move over to the pitching side where I’ll start my 2020 forecast reviews with strikeout rate, or K%. As a reminder, there is never, ever, ever a reason to evaluate K/9 instead of K%. A denominator based on outs is at risk of being heavily influenced by BABIP, walks issues, field errors, HR/FB rate, etc, because higher numbers in those metrics extend innings and result in additional batters faced, giving the pitcher more opportunities to strike out a batter, even though the denominator has remained the same. That can’t happen when your denominator is total batters faced, like in K%, as more batters faced in an inning will reduce K%, as it should, as opposed to having no effect on K/9.

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Today, I finish up reviewing my 2020 Forecast BABIP lists with the BABIP decliners. Once again, I used my xBABIP equation to identify the hitters who most outperformed their xBABIP marks in 2019. Now let’s see how they performed over the short 2020 season.

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On Saturday, it was reported that Kyle Schwarber had agreed to a one-year contract with the Nationals. After spending six seasons with the Cubs, Schwarber now finds himself with a new home park for the first time. Let’s consult the park factors to see how the change might impact his performance.

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It’s another blockbuster! Last Thursday, the Indians traded Francisco Lindor and Carlos Carrasco to the Mets. Today, I’ll focus on just Lindor and consult the park factors to determine how the team switch might affect his performance.

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Let’s move along to reviewing my 2020 BABIP surgers list. I used my xBABIP equation and identified the fantasy relevant names who most underperformed that mark. While merely underperforming your xBABIP doesn’t automatically mean a BABIP spike is forthcoming, I’d say the odds are pretty high for the biggest underperformers. Also important is the hitter maintains the underlying skills driving that xBABIP. If his skills falter, then of course his BABIP isn’t going to rise to meet the previous year xBABIP. Since BABIP is heavily influenced by luck, a shortened season means even more randomness than usual. Remembering that, let’s see how they ended up performing.

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Yesterday I continued my review of 2020 preseason articles by recapping my HR/FB rate surgers list. Today, I’ll review the flip side, the hitters that appeared on my HR/FB rate decliners list. The list was compiled using my xHR/FB rate, and then I identified the fantasy relevant hitters with the most significant overperformance. Let’s see how they ended up doing over the shortened season.

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With hot stove transactions summarized and still no updates on when the season will begin, I’m going to continue to review my 2020 preseason articles. Obviously, it’s pretty silly to review my calls based on a 60 game season, but it’s still fun to look back on and hey, maybe we can learn something. Today’s review is my HR/FB rate surgers. The list was compiled using my xHR/FB rate, and then I identified the fantasy relevant hitters with the most significant underperformance. Let’s see how they ended up doing over the shortened season.

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Although the year just flipped to 2021, it’s already Pod Projections time! The 2021 forecasts are not available yet, and it’s looking likely that I’ll have more time to finish them once again, just like last year. So consider this an early preview to whet your appetite, for a hopefully longer season than in 2020, even if we don’t return to a 162 game schedule. As usual, I’ll dive into my projection methodology (detailed in Projecting X 2.0) by sharing my process on several hitters and pitchers.

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Two weeks ago, I reviewed my pre-season article discussing six 2019 breakouts and my verdict for their 2020 performance and earnings. Today, let’s now flip to 2019’s busts. In late March, I discussed six 2019 busts and determined whether they would rebound enough in 2020 to earn within $7 of their 2018 dollar value. If I did think they would earn within $7 of their pre-bust season value, I labeled the player “REBOUND”, and if not, “STILL A BUST”. Though a 60 game season is hardly the sample size needed to evaluate my methodology on calling these 2019 busts, it’s all we have. So let’s see how the players and I did.

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Don’t you love it when an MLB team acts like a fantasy team and seemingly acquires or signs everyone good? It’s fun, right? If it wasn’t enough to trade for Blake Snell, sure, why not trade for Yu Darvish as well?! It was first reported on Monday night that the Padres agreed on a trade with the Cubs for Yu Darvish, after a three season run with the Cubs, in which he looked like a young future star improving each year. He was not a young star, of course, but his SIERA improved each season with the team, likely thanks to better health and a recapturing of the elite stuff that made him so exciting in his early years. Now moving to San Diego, let’s consult the park factors to see how the park switch might affect his results.

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