Over the last two days, I identified and discussed the hitters whose FB% has surged and those whose FB% has declined versus 2020. Today, let’s move over to starting pitchers. Unlike for hitters where depending on the type of hitter they are, the optimal batted ball profile is easier to determine, it’s not as straightforward for pitchers. So this isn’t necessarily a “good” list to be on, but it could change the shape of the pitcher’s performance. More grounders should result in fewer homers, but likely more hits allowed and a higher BABIP. So let’s get to the names of those that have increased their GB% by at least 10%. Of course, remember we remain well into small sample size territory.

Read the rest of this entry »

Yesterday, I listed and discussed the hitters who had raised their FB% marks by at least 10% versus 2020. Let’s now switch gears to those hitters who have seen their FB% marks decline by at least 10%. Remember these are still very small sample sizes, so the odds are the majority of these hitters return to their normal batted ball distributions by the end of the season. Still, it’s worth monitoring these names as FB% changes could have a big impact on a hitter’s fantasy value.

Read the rest of this entry »

There still isn’t a whole lot to evaluate just about two and a half weeks into the season, but batted ball profiles are one of the few that could signal a change in plate approach that lasts all year. As one of the primary drivers of hitting home runs, let’s look to fly ball rate to see who has increased their marks versus 2020 so far. All else being equal, a higher fly ball rate will result in more homers, so paying attention to a hitter’s batted ball profile is important.

Read the rest of this entry »

Today marks the final installment of this season’s wacky small sample rate discussion. Let’s finish things off by sticking with starting pitchers, but moving along to the plate discipline metrics.

Read the rest of this entry »

Over the last two days, I have shared the wacky rates hitters have posted over the small sample early season so far. Let’s now jump to starting pitchers. Only a handful of starters have made three starts so far, while the rest are sitting on just one or two. So these rates are not very meaningful, but are fun to look at.

Read the rest of this entry »

Yesterday, I discussed a whole bunch of hitting metrics and who currently leads and lags the league. Things be crazy this early in a season. I didn’t quite finish diving into all the metrics I wanted to, so today I’ll check in on the batted ball type related metrics. Let’s find out who is part of the weird and wonderful today.

Read the rest of this entry »

What I love about the first couple of weeks of the baseball season is all the crazy rates players are posting. In small samples, the range recorded in all metrics is much wider than over a larger sample. Obviously, the larger the sample, the more a player’s performance will revert toward his true talent level. In only eight to nine games, anything goes! So for fun, let’s take a gander at some of the weird and wonderful rates that have been posted by hitters so far.

So there’s at least some care given to sample size, I limited my dive to hitters who have recorded at least 30 plate appearances.

Read the rest of this entry »

On Tuesday, I shared the names of the eight starting pitchers who had seen their fastball velocities rise most versus 2020. Obviously, not every starting pitcher had made their first start yet, so let’s dive into the velocity gainers once more. I’ll exclude the names I discussed the first time, so this is an entirely new list of pitchers.

Read the rest of this entry »

Yesterday, I listed and discussed the starting pitchers whose fastball velocities have increased by at least 1.5 MPH versus 2020 during their first starts. This is an early indicator of a breakout, though it requires this new higher velocity level to be sustained. Let’s now move to the fastball velocity decliners. Just like the surgers might not sustain those gains all season, don’t panic just yet about these decliners. Velocity does bounce around from start to start and early in the season, it’s possible these pitchers are still building up their arm strength. However, these are big holes to climb out of, so these could be early signs of a disappointing year.

Read the rest of this entry »

There’s not a whole lot that we could evaluate after just one pitcher start. However, one of the few things we could analyze and take action on is fastball velocity. Typically pitchers see their average fastball velocity gradually increase as the season progresses, so it’s completely normal if a pitcher is down a tick from last year, as you figure it will improve moving forward. On the other hand, since average fastball velocity immediately means something, it’s worth noting when a pitcher is already enjoying a significant bump. So let’s take a look at all the starters whose average fastball velocity in their first start has increased by at least 1.5 MPH versus 2020.

Read the rest of this entry »