Author Archive

Future Minor League Callups? Triple-A Hitter HR/FB Leaders — NL

Yesterday, I perused the Triple-A hitter HR/FB rate leaderboard and discussed the AL hitters at the top. Now let’s jump to the NL and determine whether any of these sluggers could find themselves in the Majors within the next month. Once again, I have excluded any hitters who are already in the Majors and this list only includes qualified hitters.

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Future Minor League Callups? Triple-A Hitter HR/FB Leaders — AL

Let’s continue our future minor league callup series, this time moving to the metric I probably care most about — HR/FB rate. Since home runs is a category and wOBA is not in the majority of fantasy leagues, we could directly understand the potential impact a high (or low) HR/FB rate could have for fantasy teams. So let’s now begin in the American League by reviewing and discussing the Triple-A HR/FB rate leaders. Once again, I have excluded any hitters who are already in the Majors and this list only includes qualified hitters.

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Future Minor League Callups? Triple-A Hitter wOBA Leaders — NL

Yesterday, I discussed the American League Triple-A hitters leading in wOBA and their chances of being recalled in the coming weeks. Today, let’s switch over to the National League. As a reminder, I’m excluding any hitters currently in the Majors.

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Future Minor League Callups? Triple-A Hitter wOBA Leaders — AL

Now that we’re more than a third into the season and we’re approaching the date in which teams no longer have to worry about Super 2 status, let’s turn to the minor league leaderboards to try identifying who may get promoted over the next couple of weeks. I’ll start in the American League and review the wOBA leaders. I only care about prospects who are earning a call-up. If the hitter in question is not performing well in the minors, regardless of his prospect pedigree, why would we expect the hitter to suddenly perform well in the Majors? For each prospect, I’ll list his age, rank on our prospect lists and current MLB incumbent ahead of him. I’ll exclude any hitters already in the Majors, as some were just recalled this weekend.

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May 2021 Starting Pitcher Skills Decliners

Yesterday, I discussed seven starting pitchers whose SIERA marks improved the most in May versus April. Those improvements were driven by underlying skills surges — some sort of combination of a higher strikeout rate, lower walk rate, and/or more optimal batted ball distribution. Let’s now flip to the pitchers whose skills declined the most, leading to the largest increases in SIERA from April to May.

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May 2021 Starting Pitcher Skills Surgers

We know that pitchers’ skill levels could change quickly, so it’s important to pay attention. A pitcher could suddenly gain/lose velocity, alter his pitch mix, adjust his mechanics, etc, and suddenly become a new version of himself. So let’s dive into the starting pitchers who improved their SIERA marks most from April to May, driven by a significant improvement in skill metrics.

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Tarik Skubal Has Arrived

With some insane strikeout rates during his short minor league career, all backed by mid-to-upper teen SwStk% marks and even an absurd 21.5% mark at Double-A in 2019, I have been excited about Tarik Skubal ever since he debuted last year. That performance was quite mixed, as he brought his strikeout stuff, punching out 27.6% of opposing batters, but also allowing a crazy 54.2% FB% rate, which is dangerous in our homer-happy times. Since he allowed an inflated 20% HR/FB rate, it resulted in a sky-high 2.53 HR/9 mark. It’s no wonder he sported an ERA near 6.00! Of course, his 4.12 SIERA suggested better days ahead, but all those fly balls are scary, nonetheless.

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Potential Starting Pitcher HR Rate Regressors — May 27, 2021

Yesterday, I used the Statcast Home Runs Leaderboard to identify and discuss the starting pitchers who have allowed more home runs than expected according to Statcast’s calculation. Today, let’s flip to the starting pitchers who have allowed fewer home runs than expected. Are they any sell highs among this group? Let’s find out.

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Potential Starting Pitcher HR Rate Improvers — May 26, 2021

Earlier this month, I reviewed the hitters who had most underperformed and overperformed their Statcast xHRs. But Statcast doesn’t only calculate xHRs for hitters, it does so for pitchers as well. So let’s review the starting pitchers that have allowed at least two more home runs than Statcast has calculated that they should have been expected to allow.

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New Everyday Starters — May 25, 2021

Let’s continue our search for new everyday hitters, which continue to pop up on a seemingly regular basis.

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