If you’ve been relying on a rookie starting pitcher, or even multiple, this season to earn you that coveted Yoo-Hoo shower, should you continue to trust them? Will they tire over the final month or suffer increased ratios as the league adapts? Let’s discuss a trio of rookie starting pitchers, how they have performed so far, and how we might expect them to perform the rest of the way.
A couple of weeks ago, Jorge Mateo landed on the IL with an elbow injury. Though not a regular, he started at second base every so often. Then, last Wednesday, Jordan Westburg, the former prospect in the midst of a mini breakout, fractured his hand when it was hit by a fastball while batting. No problem thought the Orioles, we’ll just recall two more top prospects!
As expected, there have been a flurry of trades as we approach the trade deadline, though none have reached blockbuster status as I type this. Perhaps the most fascinating one involved the White Sox, Cardinals, and Dodgers, as each team sent players all over the map. Let’s focus on the two players the White Sox traded to the Cardinals, Erick Fedde 페디 and Tommy Pham, as they are probably the most fantasy relevant names at the moment. The new White Sox arrival Miguel Vargas and new Dodgers acquisition Tommy Edman also have the potential to contribute over the rest of the season.
Gosh, I love trade deadline time as it’s always fun to see if any players switch to new teams and home parks that might dramatically affect their results. Like a hitter departing T-Mobile Park, the Mariners home, for Coors Field to join the Rockies. Or vice versa. Of course, with only about two more months of games left to play, small sample size randomness is likely going to overshadow any effects a change in park might have. That said, it’s still worth reviewing the factors for team switchers, as it could affect rest of season projections.
Home runs. That’s it. Yesterday, I discussed 11 hitters you might investigate if you have a hankering for stolen bases. Today, I’ll flip over to home runs. But this time, I’m going to do things a bit differently. That’s because all the home run hitters are generally going to be owned. So instead, let’s review names that really only contribute in the one category. The idea here is that if you solely need home runs and don’t want to also have to pay for other categories you might be secure in, you might want to target names whose value is almost entirely derived from that one category.
With just over two months to go, it’s more crucial than ever to play the categorical standings. Sure, Anthony Santander just keeps homering, but he hasn’t hit for batting average and isn’t expected to, and doesn’t steal bases. So if you’re atop the home run standings, he ain’t doing you much good at the moment, outside of keeping you at the top. Instead, you might see four stolen base points in your sights, so perhaps shifting toward speed is now your optimal strategy. These are 12 lesser-owned names that could help gain you those stolen base category points.
Yesterday, I asked you to vote on which group of hitters you expect to post a better wOBA over the rest of the season. One group was composed of the 10 biggest xwOBA overperformers, while the other comprised the underperformers. Let’s now shift over to starting pitchers by comparing ERA to SIERA, pitting the SIERA overperformers against the underperformers during the pre-all-star break period. This is the poll I began with back in 2013.
Since 2013, I have polled you on which group of pitchers you think will post the better aggregate ERA post all-star break. In recent years, I added a hitter poll, pitting the xwOBA overperformers versus the underperformers during the pre-all-star break period, and asking you which group you expect to perform better over the remainder of the season. We know that xwOBA isn’t perfect. Neither are SIERA, xERA, and the rest of the ERA estimators. In fact, no estimated/expected/forecasted equation is going to be perfect, because there will always be players that do something we have a difficult time quantifying. Furthermore, there will always be players each year that fall into either end of the extremes for no other reason than complete randomness (luck). So let’s keep that in mind when reviewing these two groups.
Yesterday, I discussed the Triple-A hitter HR/FB rate leaders, and uncovered a few names that might be worthwhile pickups if they get recalled. In that post, I mentioned that I pivoted away from reviewing the wOBA leaders because many of those marks are driven by unsustainably high BABIPs. I have decided to run that list anyway since overall performance ultimately is what leads to a callup, and the first step to accruing fantasy value is getting to the Majors to begin with! So let’s review the Triple-A wOBA leaders who have recorded at least 200 PAs at the level and are not currently in the Majors.
With the trade deadline only a couple of weeks away, we’re likely to see a slew of minor leaguers get their opportunity to ascend to the Major Leagues. Since the timing of these promotions are unpredictable and heavily depend on a roster slot opening up, it’s never too early to gather a list of names to monitor so you’re the team that picks them up before having to spend lots of FAAB while competing with your leaguemates.
