Yesterday, I reviewed my pre-season post comparing my xHR/FB rate to actual HR/FB rate from 2020, revealing which players sustained those 2020 HR/FB rate gains. Today, let’s now flip to the other side — those players in which xHR/FB rate validated a 2020 HR/FB rate decline. Did their 2020 marks represent a new, lower level of sustained production or did it turn out to be a short season fluke? Let’s find out.
Confused by the title? For most of the rest of this year, I’m going to review all my preseason, and some in-season, posts where I made predictions or used one of my xMetrics to make statements. I think accountability is extremely important in this industry, as our reputation should hinge upon the quality, and accuracy, of the advice we give. Today, I’m reviewing a post that pitted my xHR/FB rate against actual HR/FB rate. These were the guys who enjoyed HR/FB rate spikes in 2020 that my equation validated, or confirmed was real or mostly real. Let’s find out if these hitters held onto their 2020 HR/FB rate gains in 2021.
For the first time this year, I added an all-star break hitter poll to pair with my pitcher poll. The hitter poll pitted the 10 greatest xwOBA overperformers against the 10 most significant underperformers. I asked you which group would post a higher second half wOBA and which range each group’s wOBA would fall into.
During the all-star break, I once again polled you on which group of 10 starting pitchers would post a lower ERA during the second half, and which ERA range each group’s aggregate would fall into. Let’s now review the results.
Yesterday, I reviewed my 2021 bold hitter league leaders. It wasn’t pretty. Today, I’ll recap my 2021 bold pitcher league leaders. These are slightly easier since pitchers could luck into category wins with help from their defense, bullpen, and/or lady luck, whereas luck plays a much smaller role in hitter category wins. As a reminder, I don’t bother boldly predicting wins. It’s possibly the dumbest baseball stat and not worth the effort of trying to guess.
Yesterday’s bold prediction review was slightly embarrassing, but hey, if I got too many right, I may have been accused of not being bold enough! Those are hard enough, but my bold league leaders are even more difficult. Striking the right balance between realistic, but unexpected for a singular league leader is a challenge. Let’s see how I did on the hitter side.
Another wild, wacky, and crazy season has concluded, so it’s time for pre-season prediction reviews! I’ll start with everybody’s favorite, the bold predictions. Let’s see how I did.
The 2021 season is officially in the books! Since stats won’t be updated until tomorrow as I type this, let’s look toward the postseason rather than start our 2021 review. Yes, the title of this post is a mouthful. Essentially, I wanted to discuss a number of hitters who could dramatically raise their 2022 fantasy cost with a big postseason. Obviously, any hitter could do so. But these names are a mix that specifically could raise their profiles for a variety of reasons. I’m going to ignore how far I might guess the player’s team goes in the playoffs.
Given the big adjustment to Major League hitters compared to minor leaguers, small sample volatility, and the randomness of the three luck metrics (BABIP, HR/FB, LOB%), rookie starting pitchers often disappoint. However, that disappointment is sometimes superficial and only on the surface. If you look deeper, you might discover that the pitcher did everything well he could control, but other factors conspired against him to inflate his ERA. With that in mind, let’s discuss five rookie starters with hefty ERA marks, but SIERA marks around 4.00 or below. These guys may even be sitting in your free agent pool and ready to be plucked as potential keepers next year.
If your league allows you to keep players picked up over the final days of the season, then it’s still hunting time to find potential 2022 keeper candidates. Let’s discuss six of them and decide if they’re worth a roster spot.
