I haven’t done a lot of research on Statcast’s xERA metric, but it’s similar to batter xwOBA in that it uses a pitcher’s actual batted balls against to compute what a pitcher’s ERA “should” be. That means for all those who love justifying a pitcher’s low BABIP being the result of allowing soft contact, xERA should theoretically account for this. Now, this doesn’t mean the pitcher will continue to allow the types of batted balls that have resulted in a suppressed or inflated xERA, but it does suggest that what they have already allowed should yield the calculated xERA. So let’s review the pitchers who have most underperformed their xERA marks.

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Yesterday, I discussed the hitters who have most underperformed their xwOBA marks. Let’s now check in on the flip side, those hitters who have most overperformed their xwOBA marks. Does this group make for good sell high candidates? Let’s find out.

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It’s been nearly a month and a half since I reviewed the hitters who had been most underperforming their xwOBA marks at the time. With nearly 40% of the season in the book, let’s revisit the underpeformers. I generally wait until June to truly dive into my roster and start looking to make trades, so now is a good time to identify targets.

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Yesterday, I listed and reviewed the six hitters who had posted a 30%+ HR/FB rate at Triple-A this season. Sadly, the list didn’t result in a whole lot of actionable advice. Today, I’ll shift to a related metric, ISO. In terms of overall offense, it’s more important than HR/FB rate since it accounts for doubles and triples as well. Given the number of duplicates on both lists and an attempt to capture more actionable players, I extended the list to the top 10. Let’s hope this time the names are more interesting.

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Let’s move our Triple-A review to hitters. Us fantasy owners probably care most about a prospect’s home run potential, so let’s review the HR/FB rate leaders. These are the guys who have recorded at least 150 PAs and posted a HR/FB rate of at least 30%.

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Yesterday, I reviewed the pitcher SwStk% leaders at Triple-A hoping to uncover some potentially exciting stashes. The list was a bit underwhelming, though it did include some of the very best prospects. So what if we really don’t care how the strikeouts are generated, just that the pitcher is racking them up? Let’s now look at the strikeout rate leaders at Triple-A and see if there are any additional names to keep watch on.

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If you’re in a deep league and your free agent pool is barren, now is a good time to start perusing the minor league leaderboards for potential callups who could earn positive fantasy value. Today, I’ll start with pitcher SwStk% leaders. In my non-scientific observations, a pitcher’s minor league SwStk% better correlates with his MLB strikeout rate. That means that if I see a high strikeout rate without a high SwStk% in the minors (such as a 30% strikeout rate, but only 11% SwStk%), I’m not optimistic the pitcher will post a strong strikeout rate in the Majors. On the other hand, if I see a high SwStk%, but mediocre strikeout rate, I think there’s more upside, and won’t shy away.

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Yesterday, I discussed the five starting pitchers who have increased their fastball velocity the most over the last 14 days compared to the rest of the season prior. Let’s now review the starting pitchers who have suffered fastball velocity declines over the last 14 days.

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Pitcher true talent changes more frequently than hitters, and one of the reasons why is because of fluctuating velocities. It’s helpful to monitor velocity changes as it could portend a change in performance. Of course, velocity isn’t usually very stable from start to start, but if a trend emerges, it could be a good or bad sign, depending on the direction of the trend. So let’s review the starting pitchers who have enjoyed a fastball velocity spike over the last 14 days, which likely equates to two to three starts.

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Yesterday, I discussed the five starting pitchers that have enjoyed the largest SwStk% surges versus last year. Let’s now discuss the decliners.

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