Last week, I shared the end of season rankings and dollar values of the 40 first basemen I ranked during the preseason. I began with the hitters that earned a profit of at least $4 on their projected value, and then shared the hitters that took a loss of at least $8 versus their projected value. Today, let’s discuss the unranked — those hitters who failed to make my top 40, but found themselves inside the top 40 most valuable first basemen at the end of the season.

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Yesterday, I shared the end of season rankings and dollar values of the 40 first basemen I ranked during the preseason. I began with the hitters that earned a profit of at least $4 on their projected value. Today, let’s dive into the misses, or those that earned at least $8 less than forecasted.

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For the first time this year, the RotoGraphs team introduced a formal, organized positional ranking series that we updated on a weekly basis during spring training and through the season opener. I chose to take ownership of the first base position and you should refresh your memory of my final rankings before the season began. Let’s now review those final rankings and how each of the hitters ultimately performed.

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During the all-star break, I polled you fine readers about hitters and your expectations in the second half. The poll pitted the 10 greatest xwOBA overperformers against the 10 most significant underperformers. I asked you which group would post a higher second half wOBA and which range each group’s wOBA would fall into. Let’s now review what happened.

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In mid-February, I compared wOBA projections from THE BAT X and Steamer forecasting systems. I then shared each system’s “favorites”, or the hitters each was most bullish on compared to the other, and added my take on which system I thought would prove to be closer. Given the size of each group shared in the original post, it’s clear that Steamer’s wOBA projections were generally higher, as the system was more bullish on significantly more hitters, so keep that in mind. Let’s now review the results.

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In late March, just a couple of days before opening day, I shared the names of six starting pitchers and a hitter who I thought the projections would prove wrong. I incorporated various new information we learned over the offseason and during spring training that the forecasting models are unaware of to identify these names. I then commanded you, okay, suggested, that you targets these players, or go the extra buck in auction leagues. Let’s find out how my calls went and these players performed.

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Last week, I reviewed the most polarizing hitters in NFBC leagues in early March and determined whether the hitter’s ultimately ranked closer to their ADP, minimum pick, or maximum pick. It was pretty ugly, with nine of 13 ranking closer to their maximum pick, two closer to their ADP, and two to their minimum pick. Now let’s flip on over to the most polarizing starting pitchers in those same leagues, in drafts through March 9. Will the bulls for this group of pitchers end up faring better than they did for the hitters? Let’s find out.

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The 2024 regular season is officially in the books, which means it’s time to review alllllll my pre-season and some in-season posts. Some of the reviews will follow my promise to be held accountable for my advice, while others will be more of the “let’s see what ended up happening to a pitcher’s velocity or hitter’s FB%” kinda stuff. We’ll start with a fun one, the most polarizing hitters. For this exercise, I used the default NFBC ADP at the time, created a formula to calculate how polarizing a hitter was based on the implied cost of his min and max pick values, then sorted by the difference. Let’s find out whether the crowd, the bulls, or the bears proved correct.

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While the Mets and Braves are in the midst of the second game of a doubleheader as I type this, the American League stats are in the books. So although many fantasy leagues still haven’t been decided yet, I have taken home my third overall Tout Wars league and second AL Tout Wars league championship. Check out the final standings:

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It’s Tuesday morning, which likely means that it’s too late for weekly transaction leaguers to pick up of any these players. But you could still benefit if you already own one of these names and because of the short Monday schedule, still have start/bench flexibility for the week. For the most part, though, these are names that daily leaguers could pick up if you have the need for speed over the final days of the season. These are more lightly owned names in which our rest of season depth chart projections are forecasting a steal for.

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