I love analyzing velocity data and comparing it to historical marks generated by that particular pitcher. A decrease in velocity could be the first signal of an injury or a problem with mechanics, while an increase could suggest an imminent jump in strikeout rate. Previously, I had been comparing a pitcher’s fastball velocity to what he posted last season. This time I am comparing a pitcher’s velocity over the last 30 days with his velocity in April. The below top five velocity increasers are quite a boring group, but they are the top five, so let’s get to it.

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If you have not noticed by now, I am in love with the SwStk% metric. What better way to determine that quality of a pitcher’s raw stuff than to look at the percentage of swinging strikes he has induced? A little over a month ago, I looked at pitchers near the top in the SwStk% metric, but with K/9 ratios that did not quite match. As a result, I suggested these pitchers may see their strikeout rates increase in the near future. This time I will perform a similar exercise, but using a slightly different methodology. Instead, I have ranked each pitcher in the SwStk% and K/9 metrics and then compared these rankings to determine which pitchers ranked much better in SwStk% than K/9. These are the potential K/9 upside guys.

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Wow, more than two months into the season and pitchers are clearly giving the finger to those who labeled 2010 the Year of the Pitcher. “You thought last year was the Year of the Pitcher? Wait until you see what we have in store for 2011!” It only makes fantasy owners whose teams have posted poor ERAs that much more annoyed. Anyway, on to the updates.

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This is an exciting time of the year for deep league owners as prospects are being called up, slow starters are getting released and playing time opportunities are opening up. No longer do deep leaguers have to choose between fifth outfielders and sixth starters currently pitching in long relief.

Felipe Paulino, KC SP | 6% Owned

If you had read my stuff last year on FantasyPros911 or listened to my weekly radio show, you would be well aware that I loved Paulino last year. He was coming off a decent 4.04 xFIP, but that compared to a ghastly 6.27 ERA, which likely scared off most fantasy owners and made him very cheap at draft time. He posted an excellent strike out rate, backed up by a fastball that averaged 95.4 miles per hour and generated an impressive 11.6% SwStk%. Unfortunately, 2010 did not go so well as his control regressed, the poor luck of 2009 continued through the season, and he dealt with shoulder issues that landed him on the DL. Now he has moved on to the Royals and has a second chance at a starting gig after opening the season in relief with the Rockies. His velocity remains in the 95.0 mile per hour range and he has produced fantastic results with his slider once again. This is the type of arm worth taking a chance on in AL-Only leagues. At the very least he should provide some nice strikeout numbers.

Jeff Keppinger, HOU 2B | 7% Owned

The release of Bill Hall has opened the door for Keppinger to receive full-time at-bats . While never producing much power or showing much speed, he is one of the best contact hitters in baseball. In his career, he has walked more than he has struck out, and only a below league average BABIP of .289 has prevented him from being a perennial .300 hitter. Obviously, he does not have great upside or anything, but his skills remind me of a mini-Placido Polanco. A couple of homers and steals here and there, but the value comes with the playing time and the batting average. Though this does not play very well in mixed leagues, he is a good choice to fill a hole that should cost little in deeper leagues. Finding a player in deeper leaguers that won’t kill your average is difficult, especially in the current environment where BABIP and batting average are down for the league. Luckily, Keppinger is here to save the day.

As we are well aware, offense and power are down around the league once again. Home runs per game are at their lowest mark since 1992 and ISO is tied with 1993 for lowest since. Below are the five hitters who the biggest declines in their ISO rates versus last season. Using my mastery of sabermetrical statistics and my expert scouting eye, I will attempt to determine which, if any, of these hitters will rebound, making that particular player a good trade target.

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It has been nearly a month since I first took a look at the differential between starting pitchers’ ERA and xFIP. With two months now in the books, it is time for an update. From message board posts and various articles, it seems that many fantasy owners wait until June to really analyze their team and look for trading opportunities. Determining which pitchers have been the luckiest and which have been the most unfortunate is a good exercise to undertake to identity potential trade targets or sell high candidates.

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Jon Lester has been one of the most consistently excellent starting pitchers over the past three seasons, posting ERAs in a narrow range between 3.21 and 3.41. In April of this season, he opened the first month in typical fashion, posting a 2.52 ERA. However, May has been a completely different story as his ERA has shot up to 3.94 after an uncharacteristic 5.50 ERA during the month. Though he made two starts in which he only allowed a run in one and shut out his opponent in the other, he has allowed four runs, five runs twice, and seven runs in his other May starts. Do fantasy owners have any reason to worry?

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It is time for some more deep league fun. While injuries in mixed leagues do not usually lead to new sources of significant value, it is actually a huge supplier of value in Only leagues. Which is why sometimes I wish I was playing in an Only league this year so I could have an excuse to analyze such players as in the post title. But then I remember how much more your team gets killed when your guy is the one who goes down and I don’t miss playing in Only leagues any more. For those poor souls dealing with a smattering of strained obliques, quads and hamstrings, I have one option for ya. And the others in need of pitching help, I am here for you as well.

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On the surface, Scott Baker is having his typical season. With a 4.12 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP, compared to his career marks of 4.31 and 1.28, respectively, he has performed pretty much in line with expectations. However, looking under the hood there is much more that we discover. Will these hidden treasures lead to his second breakout after his first breakout season in 2008?

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Thank goodness for injuries opening up playing time for new blood or I would be out of a job. Injuries to Jason Heyward and Nate McLouth have provided opportunities for a one-time recent prospect and another one-time prospect who has become a productive bench bat.

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