Yesterday, I shared and discussed six starting pitchers who have improved their average exit velocity (EV) against the most compared to 2022. While the correlation isn’t strong, there definitely is a positive correlation between EV and BABIP, whereby the higher the EV allowed, the higher the BABIP, and vice versa. Let’s now flip to the pitchers who have allowed a higher average EV this year.
Since 2015, there’s been a small, but positive correlation (about 0.19) between average exit velocity (EV) against and BABIP. In other words, the higher the EV allowed, the higher the BABIP. Of course, there are many other factors involved, as the correlation isn’t very high, but it’s there. And all else equal, a pitcher does desire to induce soft contact versus hard. So let’s find out which starting pitchers have reduced their average EV marks the most compared to last season.
Yesterday, I reviewed the hitters whose fly ball Hard% has increased the most compared to last year. Now let’s check in on the decliners.
Since 2012, there has been a strong correlation of 0.69 between a hitter’s HR/FB rate and their Hard%. That passes the sniff test because obviously if all else is equal, a harder hit ball is going to travel further. It’s not even higher because it’s missing both launch angle (that, combined with exit velocity, are the components of Statcast’s Barrel%, which also correlates strongly with HR/FB) and horizontal direction (pulled, straightaway, oppo). But it works as a quick shortcut to determine who might be deserving of big power and who isn’t. So let’s check in on the Hard% gainers compared to last season to find out whose power has truly increased.
Last week, I reviewed the latest group of xwOBA underperformers. Let’s now shift to the overperformers. The knee-jerk reaction to this group is that if they fail to improve their underlying skills the rest of the way, their wOBA is in danger of tumbling. However, some guys have consistently overperformed their xwOBA marks throughout their careers, suggesting they are doing something not being captured by the equation. So I’ll check in on each player’s history as well to determine if this might be the case for any of these names.
It’s been about a month and a week since I last reviewed the hitter xwOBA underperformers, so let’s get back to it. If you’re looking for the quickest way to identify a list of trade targets, this may be where you start. As a reminder, xwOBA isn’t perfect, so I do like to peruse the hitter’s xwOBA vs wOBA history to see whether he has been a consistent underperformer, which might suggest the formula is missing something the hitter is or isn’t doing that is legitimately dragging down his performance.
Yesterday, I reviewed and discussed the starting pitchers who have raised their SwStk% marks the most compared to 2022. Now let’s flip to the pitchers whose SwStk% marks have declined most. All else being equal, a lower rate of whiffs should result in a low strikeout rate and a higher ERA.
When I’m reviewing a breakout starting pitcher, especially one who has raised his strikeout rate, I want to see a SwStk% surge. I get skeptical of pitchers who increase their strikeout rate without a corresponding increase in SwStk%. The higher strikeout rate is therefore usually due to some combination of an increased called strike and/or foul strike rate, both of which aren’t as skills-driven as SwStk% is. So let’s review the pitchers who have increased their SwStk% the most compared to 2022. Have they also enjoyed an increased strikeout rate?
Last Thursday, I reviewed and discussed the hitters whose FB% has increased the most versus last year. Now let’s flip to the FB% decliners. Wondering why your supposed power hitter has disappointed in the home run category? Perhaps it’s because he’s hitting fly balls at a lower rate than he did last year.
There are three metrics that directly drive a hitter’s home run rate — strikeout rate, HR/FB rate, and FB%. Strikeout rate ties to balls in play, so the more balls in play, the greater the home run rate, all else being equal. The hitter’s HR/FB rate is obvious, as that’s literally telling us what percentage of fly balls have left the yard. Finally, FB% is the percentage of balls hit in the air. While a small percentage of line drives do end up as home runs, the vast majority come from fly balls. We typically think a hitter increased his power by raising his HR/FB rate when we see a home run spike. But as there are actually three metrics driving home run rate, that’s not always the case. So let’s focus on the hitters who have increased their FB% marks the most versus last year. More fly balls equals more opportunities for a home run.
