Last week, I determine who the most overvalued pitchers were based on my projections and dollar values in comparison to their average draft positions on Mock Draft Central. Today I check in on the other side of the coin. Pitcher projections and rankings always have the most disagreement, so it is always interesting to see where my opinion diverges from the mock drafters and the various projection systems. I decided to include the 5 most undervalued pitchers that are still worth drafting (expected to generate a positive value) in a standard 12-team mixed league and projected to be worth more than just a couple of bucks. I also excluded the reliever turned starter group since I’ve talked enough about them and they aren’t 100% locks for a spot anyway.

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Last Wednesday, I look at the most overvalued hitters at every position (sans catcher), comparing the positional rankings inferred from the ADPs at Mock Draft Central to my dollar values. Avoiding the players that are unlikely to earn their draft slot or auction price is important, but winners also usually end up with a chock full of players that were undervalued as well. Last time, I looked at the top 10 at each infield position and the top 24 outfielders. This time I will look at every starter expected to generate positive value in a standard, 12-team league.

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Yesterday, I looked at the most overvalued hitters at every position (sans catcher), comparing my dollar values to the player’s ADP within his position. Today comes the more enjoyable part for me, the pitchers. This is where the most disagreement always lies. If you looked at my LABR team, you can quickly see how my opinions may not match up with many other fantasy owners’ opinions on the pitching side of the ledger! I decided to look at the 5 most overvalued starters of the top 24 starters being drafted, since that would equate to the top 2 starters per team in a 12-team league. In order from most overvalued to fifth most overvalued…

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With a complete set of dollar values finally in hand after finishing the LABR draft this past Saturday, I can now take a definitive look at who I find to be overvalued and undervalued versus their Mock Draft Central ADPs. In earlier posts of this nature, it was just guesswork. Now I can compare where I have a player ranked within a position to where he is being drafted among the others at that position. Today I will look at the most overvalued hitters at each position, but will only consider those in the top 10 in the infield, and the top 20 in the outfield.

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First off, thanks to everyone who gave me their suggestions on who to select first overall and provided strategy advice when I asked you all to help me win the inaugural LABR mixed league. We held the draft on Sat. night and it was great to already get back into the swing of the fantasy season. I have never drafted this early, so having a fantasy team before March begins is exciting! Though as expected there were several times where my player was taken literally right before my pick, I am very pleased with how my team turned out.

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The fantasy baseball industry has two primary high-profile expert leagues. The League of Alternative Baseball Reality (LABR) was formed in 1994 by John Hunt of USA Today’s Baseball Weekly, before it became Sports Weekly. In the past, it has only included an AL-Only and NL-Only league. Then in 1997, the “bearded one” Ron Shandler, publisher of the Baseball Forecaster and founder of Baseball HQ, created Tout Wars with an AL-Only and NL-Only version, with a mixed league added in 2005. This league was of course made famous by the book “Fantasyland”. This year, Steve Gardner and USA Today have decided to expand LABR to include a mixed league. I am excited to announce that I have been invited to participate in the inaugural LABR mixed league, which I have obviously accepted.

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As flawed as ADP analysis may be, you have to admit it’s a boatload of fun to dissect, right?! And heck, when games aren’t yet being played, what else are we going to write about? So today I am looking at the players whose ADP has changed the most over the last two weeks during drafts conducted at Mock Draft Central. I only looked at the top 276 players, since that’s how many players are selected in standard 12-team leagues.

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After finally having somewhat of a breakout season in 2010, after showing little progress over the previous three seasons, Delmon Young disappointed once again last season, actually posting the worst wOBA of his career. He dealt with injuries to his oblique and ankle, which limited him to 473 at-bats and likely hurt his production. With the addition of Prince Fielder, let’s see if we should expect a rebound.

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In an effort to boost my post views and comment total, I went for the obvious to analyze my projections for next. Given the fact that Matt Moore has recently appeared on several 2013 Hall of Fame ballots, I thought it would be timely to determine just how worthy of a vote he may be. I present to you America’s Next Great Pitcher™. And yes, I have dibs on royalties if that becomes a future reality show.

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After sites like Mock Draft Central launched and league hosts like Yahoo! and CBS have added the information, Average Draft Position data has become all the rage. I have read so many articles referencing ADP, and yet, the majority of the time I still have no idea exactly what the author means or how owners utilize it. I recently read a line from a column about mock draft strategy that called ADP’s employment being overrated. Huh? I don’t get it. And how many times have I read that drafter X “reached” on a player? I am confused exactly what is meant by a reach. So let’s try to get back on the same page, while also figuring out exactly how the heck ADP data is actually best used.

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