On Wednesday, I took a look back at who I calculated to be the most overvalued pitchers versus their pre-season average draft position (ADP). Today, I will review the pitchers I identified as the most undervalued. I had excluded the reliever turned starter group, but since I was very bullish on Chris Sale, I would guess he would have appeared had I not excluded them.
On Monday, I reviewed the hitters who I calculated to be the most overvalued at each position (sans catcher) in the pre-season. Today I will recap those who I figured to be the most undervalued at those positions. And surprise, we actually have a catcher this time. I will begrudgingly use the Yahoo rankings again and hopefully no position eligibility drama will ensue this time around. Just to repeat what I said in the comments of the overvalued article, I base my own valuations/rankings on 20 games played last year and 10 this year. So to keep things consistent, I have to apply the same rules on the Yahoo final season rankings to accurately compare.
I continue my quest at taking a look back at my pre-season predictions and claims by checking in on who I believed to be the most overvalued starting pitchers. Pitcher valuations are easier and there should be less controversy (well, none at all!) over position eligibility. I’ll use Yahoo again, but any obvious relief pitchers who happen to have SP eligibility on the site will not be included in the rankings.
I didn’t just make 20 bold predictions in the pre-season, I also made various other proclamations and forecasts that put my credibility on the line. One of those series of articles was a look at who I thought were the most overvalued and undervalued players at every position, including pitchers. Today is a review of the hitters I thought were overvalued. As a reminder, I looked at the top 10 hitters in ADP at each infield position and top 20 in the outfield. I tried looking at catcher, but realized that because most leagues draft only one, the most overvalued I found was only ranked one spot earlier than my rank. The most overvalued were those who I ranked furthest away from the hitter’s ADP at the time. I am going to use final season Yahoo ranks because that seems easiest, even though I am quite positive their valuation system probably is not all that accurate. Anyhow, Let’s see how I did.
On Thursday, I reviewed my official 10 bold predictions. This pre-season, I took it one step further and decided to throw out 10 more bold predictions. Let’s see if these fare any better than the first set.
I made a lot of predictions this pre-season, from the most undervalued and overvalued players to those of the bold variety to individual player projections. I will try to review as many of those as I can and I’ll start with the 10 bold predictions that the rest of the staff has been recapping.
A week ago I identified several American League starting pitchers whose SwStk% suggests an imminent strikeout rate surge. I then took a detour to look at both sides of the coin for National League starters, and now I’m back for the potential K/9 decliners in the AL. As a reminder, the league average for American League starting pitchers with a minimum of 120 innings pitched this year is a 7.0 K/9 and 8.5 SwStk%.
On Saturday, I checked in on the National League starting pitchers whose SwStk% suggests a strikeout rate surge may be coming next season. Today, I will identify the pitchers whose SwStk% suggests the opposite side of the coin, those whose strikeout rate may be in for a decline next year. As a reminder, the league average is a 7.3 K/9 and 8.6% SwStk%.
On Wednesday, I compared American League starting pitchers’ strikeout rates and SwStk% marks to determine who may be in line for a K/9 surge next season. Today I perform the same exercise, but for the National Leaguers. As expected, the league average is slightly better, as starters have averaged a 7.3 K/9 and 8.6% SwStk%.
Every so often, I take a look at the SwStk% leaders and compare those marks to the pitchers’ strikeout rates. Since the two metrics are highly correlated, for obvious reasons, a high SwStk% that does not match up with a corresponding strikeout rate may suggest a surge is imminent. Here are a couple of pitchers whose Swstk% hints at strikeout rate upside for next year. Keep in mind however that SwStk% itself will vary year to year and so this assumes a similar level. For context, the league average for American League starting pitchers with a minimum of 120 innings pitched this year is a 7.0 K/9 and 8.5 SwStk%.
