Yesterday, the Angels acquired 29-year old southpaw Jason Vargas from the Seattle Mariners. Vargas has performed at just about a league average level according to ERA- in half of his four seasons with the M’s. Let’s see how the ballpark switch might affect his results.
I would like to reintroduce you to the good A.J. Burnett. He has finally reappeared. Whatever was done with him over the last couple of seasons, we are thankful for his safe return. After two straight miserable seasons in New York where predictably the media claimed that Burnett simply couldn’t pitch in New York and contracted Ed Whitsonitis, Burnett rebounded in his first year back in the National League.
Rumors of his demise were premature. After Mat Latos was traded to the Cincinnati Reds exactly one year ago, many felt that his fantasy value would tumble. Moving from the friendliest pitcher’s park to a home field that inflated offense would not be a good change. When you also factor in a fly ball rate that has always been higher than the league average and the significant difference in home run factors between the two parks, it really wasn’t much of a surprise that fantasy owners were concerned. But, to hell with park factors said Latos, as he posted an identical ERA this season as last year with San Diego. He even posted a better ERA at the Great American Ballpark than in away parks.
What a season for Chris Sale. I was a huge fan of his before the year began, going as far as predicting that he would outearn every White Sox and Diamondbacks starting pitcher. Although I ended up being right, I never expected that he would finish the season as the 12th most valuable pitcher overall, earning $20. Not only was Sale making the transition from reliever to starter, but it was only his second full season in the Majors, after throwing a paltry 10.1 innings over his entire minor league career. So in other words, we really had little clue what we would get from him. It is safe to say that Sale won’t come as cheaply during this year’s drafts as he did last year!
So, as you know, there was a pretty interesting three-team trade made on Tuesday. Though I’m sure Dusty Baker contested, the Reds finally have a new leadoff hitter, one whose OBP doesn’t suck. Shin-Soo Choo is now a Red and will likely hit atop the order for his new team. With strong OBPs and only so-so ISO marks the last two seasons, Choo makes for a pretty perfect number one guy. Given the perception of the two parks, getting out of Cleveland and into the supposed launching pad in Cincinnati should boost his fantasy value. Let’s see if that is the case.
Matt Moore. Aside from a (nearly) full season from Stephen Strasburg, was there anyone the majority of fantasy owners were more excited about heading into the year? Well, okay, maybe Yu Darvish. But seriously, after coming up for a cup of coffee and striking out 15 batters in 9.1 innings in 2011 and then allowing just one run in 10.0 innings in the playoffs, the hype was deafening, and for good reason. Moore is a lefty who averages in the mid-90’s with his fastball. That’s not typical of a southpaw. His minor league strikeout record was ridiculous, as his lowest K/9 was 11.5. Crazy! But alas, in 2012, he was a bit of a disappointment. At least to me. But maybe my expectations were too high.
“It” being the long awaited breakout. After coming up through the Reds system as one of the top pitching prospects in the game, Homer Bailey was supposed to eventually lead the team’s rotation. But up until 2011, he had never posted an ERA below 4.43 and hadn’t pitched more than 132.0 innings. Through parts of five seasons, Bailey had been a disappointment and many were ready to give up on him ever becoming what had once been expected. Then 2012 happened and Bailey finally had that true breakout year we all thought he was capable of.
Yesterday, the Phillies announced that they simply couldn’t go any longer without Juan Pierre and so they decided to acquire his clone, Ben Revere. It cost them Vance Worley, which opens up a rotation spot for a new face. We still have a long ways to go in the off-season, so the team could very well sign another starter to replace Worley. But for this piece, let’s assume they replace him internally and check out their options.
Shameless self promotion: I felt it necessary to announce that I have finally joined this thing called Twitter. Okay, so it’s not exactly new to me, as I have multiple business accounts, but never felt the need for a personal one. So yeah, for you Twitterers reading this, follow me @MikePodhorzer if you dare. I’ll try to be entertaining (twittertaining?).
It doesn’t feel too long ago that Alex Gordon was one of the most hyped prospects of the moment, vaulted from a fantastic season at Double-A in 2006, and then wOBA’d a somewhat disappointing .316 during his rookie campaign. Nearly all of his improvement in his sophomore season came from a jump in walk rate, as his minor league patience finally translated. Then he stunk it up and received all of 406 at-bats (also partly due to a hip injury) over the following two years. In 2011, the long awaited breakout finally arrived. Then he took a step back this season and we’re back questioning who exactly is Alex Gordon?
Raise your hand if you realized that Carlos Gomez, he of the 25 career home runs over 1,539 at-bats heading into 2012, hit 19 long balls this season. Like many young players, the belief was that Gomez would eventually fill out and hit for more power as he reaches his physical maturity. It took until his sixth season (well, technically fifth as you’ll see later) before that power manifested. So this year’s power spike sorta led to a breakout. I say sorta because although this was the first time Gomez has posted a wOBA above .300, he still only mustered a .329 mark, a level you typically wouldn’t describe as a breakout.
