Yesterday, I unveiled the top 10 list of good names with regards to both No Doubt percentage and Just Enough percentage from the home run classification buckets on ESPN Home Run Tracker. Today, I will present the negative nellies. These hitters are at greater risk for HR/FB rate decline this season, so it might not be a bad idea to use as a tie-breaker if debating between a hitter on the list and someone else.
Yesterday, I published the results of an exhaustive study I conducted to determine the predictive value of the data available on ESPN Home Run Tracker. As we suspected all along, the various home run classification buckets do indeed provide some valuable information. Today, I will unveil the names of the hitters who get a positive boost from knowing this new information.
In 2006, ESPN Home Run Tracker (then known as Hit Tracker Online) launched to provide us stat fiends with data about every home run hit in baseball. It wasn’t enough anymore to know that Ryan Howard led all of baseball with 58 long balls. No, we craved more information, and more information we got, in the form of distance, speed off the bat and a classification into a specific bucket depending on how far past the fence the ball flew. For years, I have been referencing a hitter’s percentage of “Just Enough” or “No Doubt” home runs, operating under the assumption that they have some predictive value. Although I had done a small scale study several years ago which did seem to support this thesis, nothing exhaustive has been done since. Until now.
The editors apologize for the title error. As reader Matt Bertelli notes below, however, “No one would read the post if it said Astros rotation.”
The Astros make the move to the American League this year and this switch is going to hurt their pitching staff. Of course, even in the National League this was not a staff that made fantasy owners very excited, but now it becomes even more of a struggle to identify anyone worth pursuing in shallower leagues.
For the most part, the Athletics have an exciting young starting rotation. But with youth comes inexperience, so it’s a group that could lead the team to another playoff visit or break the hearts of Oakland fans. Enough with the cliches, let’s dive into the players.
Your voices have been heard. Tallying six big votes for the next pitcher to be Pod Projected was 2012 breakout starting pitcher, Jeff Samardzija. I owned him in all of my leagues last year after scooping him up post-draft during spring training and I know how to spell his name without looking it up! Impressive feat, I know. So what will the “Shark” do for an encore?
Last Thursday, fellow RotoGrapher Chris Cwik tried to make sense of Justin Ruggiano’s half a season breakout performance last year. Chris primarily focused on historical comparables and concluded that it is unlikely that Ruggiano will continue to enjoy above average offensive performance. Looking at historical comparables is a good idea and tells us that Ruggiano is indeed facing long odds. However, I want to take that analysis one step further and dive into Ruggiano’s specific skill set to determine whether he’ll experience a better fate than the majority of the group in Chris’ sample.
Over the past couple of weeks, I have published several of my hitter projections with a detailed explanation of each metric projected. Today, it’s finally time to switch over to the pitching side. Kris Medlen returned from Tommy John surgery with a bang last year, posting a microscopic 0.97 ERA and 0.81 WHIP as a starter. A performance like that will grab the attention of fantasy owners and it has vaulted him up the ADP charts, as he has been getting drafted 75th overall and 14th among starting pitchers on Mock Draft Central. With a limited history, projecting him is tough. Let’s go through the process, of which you can read more about here.
Phew. After a nearly four and a half hour snake draft online, I have officially completed the earliest draft in my fantasy baseball career. LABR stands for League of Alternative Baseball Reality, and along with Tout Wars, is one of the two most publicized “expert” leagues. In the past, LABR has had only two leagues, an AL-Only and NL-Only, with both formats using a live auction in Arizona to select players. Last year, a mixed league with an online draft was formed and I participated in the inaugural season as well. With that background out of the way, let’s get into more league specifics.
In the coming weeks, we’ll be covering each team’s potential depth charts in an effort to shine a spotlight on the interesting playing time battles that will be waged this spring. Obviously none of these depth charts are set in stone — rather they should function to focus your attention in the right places to find cheap fantasy value.
Today we head out to San Diego to check in on the Padres rotation, which could be legitimately labeled a mess at the moment. The good news is that there are some intriguing options, the bad news is for the forecasters (like me!) trying to project innings total for their potential starters. It’s not fun, let me tell you. I won’t pretend to really have a clue as to which five starters will open the season in the rotation, but I will do my best to analyze the options.
