Jered Weaver has made a career out of outperforming his expected ERA metrics. In his first seven seasons, he has posted an ERA below his SIERA in six of those and sports a career 3.27 ERA versus a 3.94 SIERA. Along with Matt Cain, he has become the poster boy for the outlier group whose luck metrics don’t regress to the league average like the majority of Major League pitchers. He’s the exception to the rules.
Welcome to the fastball velocity edition of the deep league waiver wire. While fastball velocity obviously isn’t everything, it does highly correlate with strikeout rate and a spike in velocity often leads to a surge in strikeout rate. These two pitchers embody this theme perfectly.
Episode 27
Today’s episode of The Sleeper and the Bust stars yours truly and features RotoGraphs editor Eno Sarris. We discuss the debut of another top pitching prospect and an oldie starting pitcher, but still goodie?
Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @mikepodhorzer or @enosarris on Twitter and tweet us any fantasy questions you have that we may answer on our next episode.
You can subscribe to the podcast on iTunes or via the feed.
Intro by DJ Sinton (no, contrary to popular belief, I do not moonlight as a rap star)
Approximately 43 min of joyous analysis.
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Yesterday, I identified which starting pitchers may be due for an increase in walk percentage given their pedestrian F-Strike% marks. Although not as good a proxy as SwStk% is for K%, F-Strike% is probably the best singular metric for a quick look at how good a pitcher’s control is. Using the same data set as yesterday, these are the pitchers who have posted walk percentages well above what their F-Strike% suggest.
Although we have done a pretty good job determining what underlying statistics can combine to formulate a strong expected strikeout percentage metric, unfortunately the same cannot be said for a pitcher’s walk percentage. Though one would assume the majority of a pitcher’s control skill would show up in his ability to throw strikes, whether by throwing first pitch strikes or throwing the ball inside the strike zone, that just isn’t the case. But of course that doesn’t mean that this data is useless.
Episode 26
Today’s episode of The Sleeper and the Bust stars yours truly and features former fantasy manager for Baseball Prospectus and current writer for Fantistics and DFSEdge, Derek Carty. We discuss yet another top prospect call-up, as well as a trio of struggling lefties.
Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @mikepodhorzer or @enosarris on Twitter and tweet us any fantasy questions you have that we may answer on our next episode.
You can subscribe to the podcast on iTunes or via the feed.
Intro by DJ Sinton (no, contrary to popular belief, I do not moonlight as a rap star).
Approximately 41 min of joyous analysis.
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Episode 25
Today’s episode of The Sleeper and the Bust stars yours truly and features RotoGraphs editor Eno Sarris. We discuss a pitcher who may be worth a preemptive bid and a disappointing young shortstop.
Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @mikepodhorzer or @enosarris on Twitter and tweet us any fantasy questions you have that we may answer on our next episode.
You can subscribe to the podcast on iTunes or via the feed.
Intro by DJ Sinton (no, contrary to popular belief, I do not moonlight as a rap star).
Approximately 35 min of joyous analysis.
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Last season, Erasmo Ramirez pretty much came out of nowhere to post a 3.36 ERA (3.61 SIERA) between the bullpen and rotation. He finished the season in the Mariners rotation and over eight starts, posted a 3.64 ERA with a strikeout rate of 7.9. That performance was enough to intrigue fantasy owners and he was considered a sleeper by many. In fact, RotoGrapher Brett Talley liked him enough to boldly predict Ramirez would finish the season as a top 60 fantasy starter. Unfortunately, he has yet to throw a pitch for the Mariners this season, but you would do well to remind yourself who the man they call Erasmo is all about.
Sometimes it’s a good thing to leave a draft with holes because then there is no need to think about who to drop when an attractive player appears on free agency. Of course, this is a situation I have never encountered, since all my fantasy teams are always perfect 🙂 But seriously, I literally dropped my starting middle infielder this week in my 12-team mixed league, with no healthy replacement to take his spot, because I simply had to add Hector Santiago for his start against the Astros this week.
Episode 24
Today’s episode of The Sleeper and the Bust stars yours truly and features RotoGraphs editor Eno Sarris. We discuss another top prospect call-up as well as more closer volatility.
Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @mikepodhorzer or @enosarris on Twitter and tweet us any fantasy questions you have that we may answer on our next episode.
You can subscribe to the podcast on iTunes or via the feed.
Intro by DJ Sinton (no, contrary to popular belief, I do not moonlight as a rap star).
Approximately 46 min of joyous analysis.
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