Today we continue to review preseason ERA projections from THE BAT and Steamer as part of the 2023 projection showdown recap. Yesterday, I reviewed THE BAT’s ERA favorites, so today it’s time to scamper on over to Steamer’s ERA favorites.
Today, we continue reviewing the 2023 projection showdown, pitting THE BAT/THE BAT X against Steamer forecasts in various fantasy categories. We’ll stick with pitchers, but this time move on to ERA, starting with THE BAT’s favorites. After dipping below 4.00 in 2022 for the first time since 2015, leaguewide ERA jumped back above 4.00 this season, so its possible the more optimistic ERA projections were less accurate than the bearish ones. Let’s find out how THE BAT’s favorites performed.
Yesterday, I flipped my 2023 projection showdown reviews over to the pitchers, starting with THE BAT’s starting pitcher strikeout rate favorites, compared to Steamer’s forecasts. Now let’s review Steamer’s favorites.
After spending nearly all October reviewing the hitter category comparisons as part of the 2023 projection showdown, pitting THE BAT X against Steamer forecasts, it’s time to move on to starting pitchers. Today, I’ll start with strikeout rate and the names of those in which THE BAT (THE BAT X only projects hitters) was more bullish on compared to Steamer.
Yesterday, I reviewed a group of players THE BAT X forecasted for a significantly higher wOBA than Steamer did that I labeled as “sleepers” given their pre-season ADP. Today, let’s flip over to Steamer’s sleepers.
Last week, I reviewed the wOBA forecast comparisons between THE BAT X and Steamer as part of the 2023 Projection Showdown. Let’s now stick with wOBA projections, but turn to the sleepers. For this showdown, I performed the same comparison as in the previous wOBA articles, but filtered only for hitters with an ADP of 300+, were signed with a team, and forecasted for at least 300 PAs. Let’s review the hitters who qualified as a sleeper that THE BAT X loved.
Yesterday, I reviewed the results of the wOBA forecast showdown, filled with the hitters that THE BAT X was most bullish on compared to Steamer. Today, we’ll flip over to Steamer’s wOBA favorites.
Let’s move on to batter wOBA forecasts as we review the results of the 2023 projection showdown, pitting THE BAT X against Steamer in various statistical categories. Today, we’ll begin by reviewing THE BAT X’s wOBA favorites, as compared to Steamer. While wOBA is typically not a fantasy category, it strongly correlates with home runs, RBI, runs scored, and batting average. And of course, keeps a hitter in the lineup if it’s high, while puts the hitter at risk of losing playing time if low. Let’s now find out how THE BAT X’s wOBA favorites performed.
Yesterday, I reviewed THE BAT X’s runs scored favorites, as part of the 2023 projection showdown, pitting their projections against Steamer’s forecasts. Now let’s find out how Steamer’s runs scored favorites ended up performing.
Today, we move on to reviewing the runs scored forecasts as part of the 2023 projection showdown pitting THE BAT X against Steamer in various fantasy categories. Just like RBI, runs scored is heavily driven by lineup spot. While the extra plate appearances for hitters atop the lineup doesn’t matter for this analysis because we’re keeping a constant 650 PAs, the guys at the top of the lineup benefit from better hitters behind them to drive them in. So they are likely to score a higher percentage of the time when they are on base versus hitters in the bottom half of the lineup. So let’s keep that in mind when reviewing the actual runs scored here as a change in lineup spot may be the cause of exceeding or missing the projections. We start with THE BAT X’s runs scored favorites.
