Yesterday, I used Jeff Zimmerman’s recently published xBABIP table to identify five trade targets, with the underlying assumption that they have suffered from poor BABIP fortune, which is likely to reverse over the final two months of the season. Today, I will check in on some hitters whose BABIPs are far above their xBABIP marks and could be in for quite the decline over the rest of the season. As such, they are perhaps strong sell candidates.
On Friday, Jeff Zimmerman published the calculated xBABIP marks using his new equation incorporating Inside Edge data. While we are well aware that we remain far away from a perfect xBABIP equation as some commenters pointed out what’s missing, it’s still a useful metric to analyze. So I have curated a list of hitters whose xBABIP marks are significantly higher than their actuals and could represent good acquisition targets for the final two months of the season.
In a move that we’ve been waiting on for quite a while, the Padres finally traded away their starting third baseman since 2009. Chase Headley now finds himself in New York, calling Yankee Stadium home. That alone should be cause for celebration, as his home park hasn’t been too kind to him over his career. But Headley has been a disappointment once again this year and has been bothered by a herniated disk in his back. Could this move be the jolt he needs to reward those fantasy owners who remained patient?
Isn’t it fun playing the free agent pool merry-go-round? Ya know, picking up another player seemingly every week to fill that one roster spot you just can’t find a permanent player for. Between injuries and demotions, that describes about half my Tout Wars roster. Awesome. Here are two options for deep leaguers, one is almost guaranteed to be temporary, the other could potentially become permanent.
Yesterday, I identified five hitters whose batted ball distance suggests a HR/FB rate surge could be in their futures. Today, I check in on those hitters who are at risk of experiencing a decline in HR/FB rate over the rest of the season. As a reminder, batted ball angle, standard deviation of all fly balls and fence distances all play a role, but are ignored during this exercise due to lack of data.
As we continue into the second half of the season, it’s time to check back into the batted ball distance leaderboard. As usual, I am identifying potential HR/FB rate improvers by comparing a hitter’s mark to his distance. However, distance alone doesn’t tell the complete story, so this isn’t a perfect analysis. I found that batted ball angle and the standard deviation of fly balls were also quite important. But since this data isn’t publicly available yet, we have to do the best with what we have. So without further ado, here are your power surgers.
The second “half” is almost underway, as we still have nearly two and a half months of more baseball to look forward to. It might be hard to believe, but if you’re still within 20 points of a money spot, you probably still have a shot. Here are four American League starting pitchers who should improve their ERAs during the second half and therefore might good acquisition targets.
Boy, it’s tough to do a deep league wire after returning from a week and a half vacation having looked at a total of zero box scores while being away! During my quick research for players to recommend, I was surprised at how much I missed. Unplugging does have its negatives.
Last year, I polled you wonderful readers asking which group of pitchers you expected to perform better during the post-All Star Break period. The two groups were composed of the pitchers whose ERAs were most disparate from their respective SIERA marks. While a one year sample wasn’t going to prove anything, I was curious what you all thought and what would actually happen. Do I put too much faith in SIERA? If the SIERA beaters from the first half still significantly outperformed the underperformers, then perhaps I either have to rethink the way I evaluate pitchers or those specific pitchers were doing something not being captured by the metric.
We’re back at it again, checking in on the American League starting pitchers.
