Back in late March of 2012, Matt Swartz helped me conclude that pitcher strikeout and walk rates in spring training actually do matter. We are so used to hearing that spring stats mean nothing, so it was exciting to learn that there was some meaning after all, if you knew where to look. So with that in mind, I identified four starting pitcher breakout candidates based on strikeout rate surges during the spring. Let’s review their performances.

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Free Pitcher X! It’s a chant often heard when a pitcher with a starter’s arsenal who was a starter in the minors gets banished to the bullpen. This time around, those chants were directed toward Carlos Martinez. A starter throughout his minor league career, Martinez has started just eight games for the Cardinals, versus 70 relief appearances. It seemingly wasn’t due to the Cardinals organization believing he lacked the stuff or stamina to succeed as a starter. Instead, the team was just overloaded with rotation options and rather than keep Martinez in the minors, why not allow him to contribute at the Major League level? It’s what happened to Trevor Rosenthal, but his bullpen dominance ensured that he has found a home there. With a rotation opening, Martinez now appears to be the favorite for the team’s fifth starter job.

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Nathan Eovaldi’s fastball velocity ranked fourth among qualified starters this year. However, it hasn’t actually translated into strikeouts. In fact, the 10 pitchers with the highest velocity this year averaged a 22% strikeout rate. Eovaldi’s 16.6% mark was second worst in the group. Seven of the 10 pitchers sported strikeout rate marks above 20%. So it’s unusual to find a pitcher with such strong velocity to be unable to punch out batters at even a league average clip.

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Heading into his second full season, Wily Peralta got some sleeper love and it was easy to see why. A high octane fastball that averaged 94.8 mph last year, ranking fourth in velocity among qualified starters, will always get fantasy owners excited. And although his 2013 strikeout rate was an uninspiring 16.1%, he posted much better marks throughout his minor league career, suggesting potential for upside if he could translate his stuff into results. For those who looked past the inflated ERA and below average control and imagined what could be, you were duly rewarded with a 3.53 ERA and 17 wins.

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I have been a Brett Anderson fan since his early minor league days. A pitcher with an extreme ground ball tendency that also has above average strikeout ability and possesses excellent control is a pitcher that will always excite me. Furthermore, that pitcher also made his home in an excellent environment, with his pitcher friendly home park and good defense behind him. Unfortunately, pitching for the Athletics and displaying an intriguing set of skills mattered little when he simply couldn’t stay on the field.

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Despite possessing above average fastball velocity, Jordan Zimmermann has generally posted strikeout rates right around the league average. Part of the reason for the disappointing strikeout totals is because he throws his fastball quite frequently. From 2011 to 2013, his fastball usage ranked 29th among 125 qualified starters. We know that the fastball easily sports the lowest SwStk% among all pitch types. So throwing the pitch often is naturally going to result in fewer swings and misses on average.

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Nearly a year ago, I introduced you to my 2014 Andrew Cashner. If you had forgotten, Cashner was my favorite sleeper heading into 2013. Although the strikeout rate was a disappointment, he certainly delivered. The 2014 version (before Carlos Carrasco took over as my favorite sleeper) turned out to be Cashner’s rotation mate, Tyson Ross. And boy did he make his fantasy owners happy by posting a 2.81 ERA and punching out 195 batters, while winning 13 games.

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Yesterday, the Athletics continued their wheeling and dealing this offseason by trading the pitcher they just traded for over the summer. Jeff Samardzija will now be calling the South side of Chicago home and given the perception of each home park, this is seemingly a bad move for his fantasy value. Let’s check out the park factors.

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It may be an understatement to claim that fantasy owners were excited about Danny Salazar heading into the season. And who could blame us? After undergoing Tommy John surgery in 2010, he returned with a new arm and rose swiftly through the Indians farm system. He then hinted at his vast potential during his 2013 MLB debut, as he struck out nearly 31% of batters faced, while displaying strong control. And that performance was backed by a sizzling 96 mph fastball, lethal changeup and good slider. It was enough to get us RotoGraphs rankers to place him 24th among starters, despite having just 52.0 Major League innings under his belt.

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When a rookie starting pitcher posts a 2.69 ERA and earns Rookie of the Year honors, despite owning an unexciting 3.62 career ERA in the minor leagues, the natural knee-jerk reaction is to raise both eyebrows. When that pitcher also struck out 25.5% of the batters he faced in the Majors, after posted an underwhelming 19.5% strikeout rate in the minors, you would raise a third eyebrow if you had one. But despite his mediocre minor league track record that fails to foreshadow the type of success he enjoyed during his Mets debut, Jacob deGrom is for real. Here’s why:

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