Since Friday, there have been two fantasy relevant free agent signings. On Friday, Rhys Hoskins, who missed all of last season due to a torn ACL in his left knee, signed a two-year, $34 million contract with the Brewers. Then on Saturday, Joey Gallo signed a one-year, $5 million contract with the Nationals. Let’s consult the park factors and determine how their new home parks might affect their results.
Last week, I reviewed the hitters with the largest differences between their actual wOBA and their Statcast calculated xwOBA. Unlike wOBA that’s typically not a fantasy category and has an indirect effect on fantasy value, ERA is almost always a fantasy category. So it’s pretty clear why it’s important to compare it with Statcast’s xERA equation.
Let’s start reviewing 2023 performance. We’ll start with hitter wOBA, comparing it to Statcast’s xwOBA. Why should we care how a hitter’s actual wOBA compared to his xwOBA? Because if you’re reading this, you’re probably a fantasy baseball player, and if you’re a fantasy baseball player, you probably want to either get your hands on a good set of projections or forecast players yourself.
Identifying the hitters who both underperformed and overperformed their xwOBA marks might help you recognize hitter projections that might be too optimistic or pessimistic, if your source isn’t incorporating Statcast data. If you’re manually projecting players yourself, you might want to weigh the player’s actual performance less heavily, and rely more on how that hitter was expected to perform given the underlying drivers of the xwOBA calculation.
Last week, left-handed starter Eduardo Rodriguez signed a four-year, $80 million contract with the Diamondbacks, ending his two-season stay in Detroit. After posting the lowest ERA of his career, let’s consult the park factors to figure out whether the change in park might impact his results.
Last week, the Cardinals traded Tyler O’Neill to the Red Sox to help alleviate their outfield glut. After a 2021 breakout, O’Neill has battled injury and disappointed offensively. Can a move to Fenway be the trigger that drives a rebound? Let’s dive into the park factors.
I was literally in the bathroom in one of those fancy “malls” in New York City when I heard someone shout to their friends that Shohei Ohtani just agreed to a $700-million contract with the Dodgers. The voice didn’t mention how many years, but I figured it had to be for like 20 years to make this contract not so absurd. Nope, 10 years at $70 million a year. Seriously?! Anyway, I’m not here to evaluate the contract, but instead, let’s consult the park factors to find out how making the journey North from Anaheim to Los Angeles might impact his results.
Last week, Juan Soto was traded as part of a blockbuster, sending him back to the East Coast, this time to the Yankees. Let’s consult the park factors to find out how the park switch might impact his results.
It’s always amusing when the Yankees and Red Sox make a trade, right?! On Tuesday, Alex Verdugo was traded from the Sox to the rival Yankees, where he’ll join a fun lineup expected to consist of a mix of hitting stars and prospecty youngsters. Let’s dive into the park factors to find out how the move might impact his performance.
On Monday, I reviewed seven starting pitchers that increased their fastball velocity early in the season to find out how they performed the rest of the way. Now let’s review the starting pitchers whose fastball velocity declined in the early going. Did any of them enjoy a rebound over the rest of the season? Let’s find out.
In a shocking trade (at least to me!), Jarred Kelenic was traded to the Braves on Sunday, where he now joins a loaded offense that set all kinda of team offensive records. Let’s consult the park factors to see how the park switch might impact his results.
