Last week, I reviewed my 2017 bold hitter league leaders. Not surprisingly, I went 0 for 10, but earned a couple of “spirit wins”. Since these are far more difficult to get right than bold predictions, a spirit win is still a positive result. Let’s see if I performed any better on the pitching side. Here is my original article and explanations.
Since I seemingly enjoy embarrassing myself at the end of the season, I go one step further from just the regular bold predictions. I also boldly predict the league leaders in each of the five fantasy hitting and pitching categories! Here are my picks and initial thought process. It’s a miracle if I even get one of these correct. Let’s see how I did.
American League
Batting Average – Manny Machado
I keep choosing him thanks to his strong strikeout rate and massive power, with the hopes he could finally cure his pop-up problem and enjoy some good batted ball fortune for a change. Not this season! He actually posted a career low .265 BABIP that led to a weak .259 average. Not only did he fail to correct his pop-up issues, but he also forgot how to hit line drives. Since he finished strong, he probably won’t come at much of a discount next year.
0 for 1
Aaron Judge, my thank you card is in the mail.
This was my fourth year in the American League only Tout Wars league after winning the inaugural Tout Wars mixed draft league back in 2013. I’ve had two bottom tier finishes, a second place in 2015, and now…a Yoo-Hoo shower! And since this post is partially meant to give me a pedestal to brag from, I will giddily share that I not only won, but set multiple league records along the way as well. My team scored 109 of a possible 120 points, the most in AL Tout history, while my 26 point victory margin was also the most. In addition, I set a couple of category records, and actually won eight of the 10 categories. It was quite the season.
Once again, heading into the all-star break, I presented two lists of 10 pitchers each — both lists composed of pitchers on each side of SIERA-ERA differential. I then asked you to vote on which group, the SIERA overperformers or underperformers, would power a lower second half ERA, and which ERA range each group will land in as a group average. Amazingly, the results suggested these two groups of pitchers were identical! Both garnered between 44% and 45% of the vote to post the lower ERA, while nearly 11.5% of you couldn’t choose a side, predicting the groups would finish within .05 earned runs of each other. Furthermore, 29% voted that 4.00-4.24 would be the ERA range that both groups would settle into, with 3.75-3.99 the second highest vote-getter at 27% and 28%. Pretty crazy how close these votes were! Let’s see what actually happened.
The regular season is officially in the books! And what a season it was. I hope all of you, every single one of you, won a league. Hopefully, it was thanks to some of my bold predictions, of which I have completely forgotten the specifics since my midseason review. I have no idea how I did, so let’s be surprised together. For a referesher on my thought process behind each prediction, check out the original bold prediction article.
Only four days of games left in the regular season! Two of my three leagues are super close at the top and I’m lucky enough to be part of what’s sure to be a nail biting finish. So these pitching performances are of paramount importance. Let’s see who’s slated to pitch on Friday.
Miguel Gonzalez (CBS 26% Owned) vs OAK (Sean Manaea)
There was a time in late August when Gonzalez was being added in leagues and I wondered why. Oh, of course, it was because he had allowed just four earned runs over four starts for a sparkling 1.29 ERA. Nevermind the fact was a typical for him 4.64, suggesting his skills were as terrible as always. Naturally, he proceeded to allow 14 runs over his next three starts, including a seven run implosion. Anyhow, it’s a good matchup, but he owns one of the worst career skill sets around and strikes out no one. I would never allow him to come near my team, let alone my active roster.
Bud Norris (23%) at CHW (Dylan Covey)
Making just his second “start” of the season, Norris pitched just 3.1 innings last Saturday. It’s doubtful he’d last long enough to make much of a difference or qualify for a win and that’s assuming he actually pitches well enough to be in line for one. No need to stream him.
Ownership percentages are from CBS leagues.
It’s the last week of the season! If you’re still fighting for a money spot, it’s not too late to take advantage of every little thing you can. The Rockies finish the season with a six game homestand, first facing the Marlins for the first three games, taking a break on Thursday, and ending with a trio of games against the Dodgers. Here are some lesser owned names that might be available in your league to consider picking up for the week, especially in a daily transaction league when you could use them only during the games at Coors for Marlins and Dodgers players.
I’ll be looking at starters owned in less than 30% of CBS leagues.
