Over the years, I’ve thought about so many different ways to try predicting which hitters might see a jump or decline in power and HR/FB rate. Whether it was using ESPN Home Run Tracker, building an xHR/FB rate equation, using Statcast’s Home Runs leaderboard and its xHR calculation, or countless other ways, I left no stone unturned when attempting to find an edge. So are you ready for a new method?! Sure, you are!

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Perhaps the most valuable free agent fantasy asset finally signed after weeks and weeks of speculation. Kyle Tucker signed with the Dodgers, making it more laughably strong than it already was. Heck, they scored the second most runs in baseball last year so they weren’t exactly hurting for even more offense. But more offense they got, which means you might want to think twice about your starting facing the team, no matter who that starter is! Moving out of Wrigley Field and now calling Dodger Stadium home, let’s dive into the park factors to find out how the move might impact Tucker’s results.

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Let’s dive into Statcast’s Home Runs Leaderboard to identify and discuss the hitters with the largest gaps, both positive and negative, between actual and expected home runs. I’m using the default “Adjusted” type which applies an environmental variable to the xHR total to account for ballpark effects. Also note that this leaderboard includes postseason home runs, which made me do a double take since I definitely didn’t remember Cal Raleigh hitting 65 home runs and Shohei Ohtani also clearing 60 homers!

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A couple of weeks ago, the Pirates acquired second baseman Brandon Lowe from the Rays as part of a three-team trade. The 31-year-old had spent his entire career in Tampa Bay, so it’ll take some getting used to seeing him don a new uniform and in a new league. He’s coming off the second best fantasy season of his career. Let’s dive into the park factors to determine how the park switch might impact his results.

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Gosh, isn’t Jorge Polanco cold by now?! Though he has gone from the middle of the country to the West coast and now the East coast, he has somehow managed to remain North. Polanco signed a two-year, $40 million contract with the Mets last Tuesday after his highest PA total since 2021 and highest ever wRC+. Regardless of whether you think the Mets are buying high here, let’s dive into the park factors to see how the move from Seattle’s home park, T-Mobile Park, to Citi Field might impact his results.

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You’ve no doubt heard by now that last Thursday, Pete Alonso signed a five-year, $155 million contract with the Orioles. That’s going to annoy those still rooting for Coby Mayo, but is obviously a big move for the team. It’s hard to picture the lifelong Met donning a different uniform, but we’re going to get used to it eventually. For now, let’s consult the park factors to find out how the move from New York’s Citi Field to Baltimore’s Oriole Park at Camden Yards might impact his results.

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It’s no secret that Jordan Walker has been a disappointment offensively since a solid debut back in 2023. He was formerly ranked as the Cardinals best prospect and the 11th best prospect in the game just a couple of years ago. With 55/80 Game Power and 70/80 Raw Power grades, he was an intriguing future fantasy contributor. Unfortunately, his performance has gone South, wayyyyyy South, since that rookie campaign. Acknowledging that something needed to be done to return to his former top prospect path, he visited Driveline Baseball back in October in order to overhaul his swing mechanics. We’ve seen a number of Driveline Baseball success stories. Will Walker be the next?

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Just before Thanksgiving, the Blue Jays signed Dylan Cease to a seven-year, $210 million contract. He now returns to the American League, where he spent five seasons with the White Sox before joining the Padres for two seasons. Coming off the second worst ERA over a full season in his career, how might his new park affect his results? Let’s consult the park factors to find out.

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Last Tuesday, the Red Sox acquired Sonny Gray from the Cardinals, allowing him to don his sixth uniform in 10 seasons. It’s pretty surprising to see a guy with a career ERA- of 87 to be constantly packing his bags to join a new team, but perhaps the positive spin is that so many organizations want him! After spending two seasons calling Busch Stadium home, let’s dive into the park factors to find out how the move to Fenway Park might impacts his results.

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A couple of weeks ago, I reviewed the early starting pitcher Stuff+ risers and fallers. Unfortunately, comparing 2025 Stuff+ to 2024 Stuff+ meant that I was missing a whole group of potentially interesting pitchers to evaluate — both injury returnees and rookies. So I dedicated a post to reviewing these two groups’ Stuff+, but without any comparisons to the previous season. Let’s find out how they finished the season.

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