While we remain in small sample territory, it’s always fun to look at the league leaders in various process-related rate metrics (though you can definitely go a layer deeper). Results are far less predictive right now, so let’s take a gander at which batters are leading in some of the statistics that we should actually care about right now, a least a little bit.
One of the few metrics I monitor closely during spring training is pitcher velocity. Process is significantly more important than results in March and could hint at the need to update projections to account for changes we see. Of course, Spring velocity changes don’t always carry over to the regular season. Often times we see a pitcher enjoy a velocity spike and fail to hold onto it when the regular season begins, or suffer a loss of velocity, but gain it right back. So now with a couple of starts in the books, let’s find out who has actually gained and lost velocity compared to last year so far.
It’s hard to evaluate statistics this early without sounding the small sample size alarm bells. Yesterday, I looked at hitter bat speed, which supposedly conveys meaningful information after only a few swings, but still isn’t perfect this early. Today, I’ll look at another metric that works over small sample sizes, but only one side. That’s maxEV or the highest exit velocity a batter has hit a ball over a specified time period. We can evaluate the maxEV gainers already, but given that the metric could increase as the season progresses, it doesn’t make sense to review the fallers.
Last year, the team at Baseball Savant blessed us with a cornucopia of new bat tracking metrics. One of those shiny new numbers was hitter average bat speed, which measures the speed at which a hitter swings. Last year, there was a robust 0.70 correlation between average bat speed and HR/FB rate among qualified hitters. That’s significant! Since average bat speed requires only a few swings to become predictive, it’s a great stat to monitor early on when small sample caveats apply to nearly every other metric. This might end up being a strong power breakout predictor before the power breakout actually occurs! On the flipside, perhaps a meaningful decline suggests disappointing output.
For the first time in many, many years, I failed to publish a bold predictions post last year. It was sad. We shall not let that happen again, so it’s time to think bold once again. I usually try to develop my bold predictions based on knowledge I don’t think is being captured by the projections. Or perhaps, it’s not being fully captured. So you won’t catch me boldly predicting that Young Player X, who hit 20 homers last year, will “break out” this season with 30 homers, because, ya know, he’s young and young hitters improve. That’s not boldly predicting, that’s just guessing based on general career trajectories. Alright, enough of the yadda yaddas, let’s get to ’em.
First Base Overview
It was a weak year overall for first basemen in 2024. We now head into the 2025 season with a clean slate and fresh optimism that this year’s crop will return more value, and perhaps include a number of young breakouts and veteran rebounds. There isn’t as much category selection needed this year, as just two hitters on this list are projected to earn positive value from stolen bases. So that means we’re back to rostering mashers who need to make a good dent in your home run total goal as you fill out your team.
Today’s Discussion
It’s the final rankings update for the 2025 season! Given the rash of injuries over the last week, I’m almost afraid to set these in stone, knowing there are still a couple of more days until the stateside Opening Day.
This week, the man whose face adorns the top of this post, Vinnie Pasquantino, left Saturday’s game with a hamstring strain. As I type this, there hasn’t been an update on his condition and how severe the strain is considered. I felt obligated to drop him in the rankings, but it’s impossible to know where he should ultimately be ranked without an idea of how much time he might miss, if any. At least he doesn’t rely on the running game to drive his fantasy value, so we shouldn’t expect the injury to affect his performance when he returns.
The other two rankings changes I made were more about a better understanding of the new Rays home park, rather than any underlying change in expected skills or playing time for the hitters upgraded. The Rays are playing their home games at George M. Steinbrenner Field, a minor league ballpark with dimensions that mimic Yankee Stadium. The park switch should be a boon for left-handers, who go from a park with an 88 left-handed home run factor to a 119. That’s a massive bump! Letting that really sink in motivated me to upgrade two left-handed Rays on these rankings, as I’m not sure whether the projections are accounting for the park factor changes.
This past Saturday morning, I hopped on the NYC subway for the quick trip to Hotel Edison to participate in the annual Tout Wars live auction and defend my championship. It’s one of the most exciting days of the year, and it’s always bittersweet when it’s over, knowing that I’ll have to wait an entire year to auction with these lads again.
On Feb 25, the competitors of the LABR Mixed draft virtually congregated for our annual February 15-team draft. Drafts this early are challenging. On the one hand, the early timing benefits the prepared and the more highly skilled. On the other hand, there remains a great many unknowns that we need to make educated guesses on at best, and complete shots in the dark on at worst. Position battles either haven’t begun or just began and all the excitement about pitchers throwing new pitches and the velocity spikes they are experiencing typically aren’t even known yet, taking away information we would normally use in our player evaluations. In addition, the longer time between the draft and opening day means more opportunity for injuries to decimate your roster before the season even begins (Gerrit Cole’s new owner, who drafted him 48th overall, is already shaking his head)!
Auction day is one of my favorite days of the year. So what to do when you love auctioning, but your first event of the year isn’t for another four days? Fake buy players from auctions that did actually take place! For fun, last week I decided to check out the NFBC average auction values and build a standard 14-player offense for $14. That’s right, every player I selected had to come with an average auction value of just a buck. This week, I’m going to flip over to pitchers, building a $9 staff. Unlike in years past, I’m just going to choose from starting pitchers only and not speculate on saves from relievers this time. Discussing more cheap starting pitching is more actionable than naming a bunch of middle relievers who might net some saves.
Auction day is one of my favorite days of the year. So what to do when you love auctioning, but your first event of the year isn’t for another week and a half? Fake buy players from auctions that did actually take place! For fun, I decided to check out the NFBC average auction values and build a standard 14-player offense for $14. That’s right, every player I selected had to come with an average auction value of just a buck. Imagine the pitching staff you could assemble with the $246 you would have remaining!
