Last week, I reviewed my 2026 batter wOBA projection showdown pitting THE BAT against Steamer. Now let’s flip on over to pitchers with the same two systems battling it out for ERA projection supremacy. In mid-late February, I compared ERA projections and shared the pitchers that each system was most bullish on compared to the other. Let’s now find out which system ended up closest.
In mid-February, I revived my projection showdown series, starting with THE BAT X vs Steamer in forecasting batter wOBA. I shared two lists, one in which THE BAT X was most bullish, and the other in which Steamer was most bullish. I then shared my own opinion of the hitter and which system I thought would end up closest. Let’s see how we all did.
At the beginning of February, I tested a hypothesis I had, which was essentially that hitters with better than league average maxEV and HardHit% marks, but below average Barrel% marks, had a better chance of increasing their Barrel% the following year, while HR/FB rated followed. If this was true, I imagined the other side being true as well, with below averaged marks, but an above average Barrel%, leading to a weaker latter mark and HR/FB rate the next year. Sure enough, my research proved that my hypothesis was indeed true.
We continue my 2026 analysis review season! Today, let’s investigate the names that made my 2026 Preview: Potential Batter HR/FB Rate Surgers & Decliners list. I used Statcast’s xHR calculation to calculate the hitters that most underperformed and overperformed according to the formula and then implied that assuming all else was equal, a higher xHR total would mean a higher HR/FB rate and vice versa. Let’s find out how they ended up doing.
Last December, I asked a question – Is Jordan Walker the Next Driveline Baseball Fueled Breakout? I’ve been obsessed with identifying which players have visited Driveline Baseball each offseason because we’ve witnessed a number of breakouts the following season. Obviously, a visit doesn’t guarantee anything and two of the three names that made my bold predictions thanks to their visits were total busts. But the mere acknowledgement a player makes by deciding to train there is important as it shows a willingness to improve. Walker was a fascinating name among the group of Driveline trainees last offseason given that he was a one-time top prospect who had disappointed, but had also already showcased some really intriguing skills.
It’s bold prediction review time! Refresh your memory with my original theses driving these predictions.
It was a nail-biter, to say the least, but when the last out of the regular season was recorded, I won my fourth Tout Wars title, and third in the AL league. So how did I accomplish such a feat? It was a combination of some shrewd in-season pickups, along with a massive, massive sprinkling of good fortune. Now, nearly every league winner requires some dose of luck, whether it’s avoiding injuries, hitting on breakouts, etc., but this league was different. Let me allow this screenshot to do the talking:
The final week is tough for fantasy owners, as veterans on teams knocked out of the playoff hunt might be benched in favor of younger players, while starting rotations are up in the air. Any starter could be shut down and just not make a start this week, and you might not know until the day of. Anyway, let’s talk about the hitters on teams currently projected to face the most number of left-handed starters this week. This could give players on the short-side of platoons (right-handed hitters who generally only start against lefties) an opportunity for increased playing time this week. The caveat here is that the probables grid is the most unpredictable it’s been all year, so ensure your short-side platoon pickup actually ends up facing the lefty he was originally forecasted to oppose.
It’s the final week of the regular season! It’s now extremely important to accumulate PAs to give you the best chance of racking up the counting stats. So let’s discuss four hitters who have recently been recalled from the minors and now find themselves in a strong playing time situation.
With just two weeks left in the season, we need to take advantage of every possible edge. On the hitting side, one of those potential edges is looking at the opposing pitcher’s handedness. With so many hitters stuck in platoons, it’s insightful to learn which teams are expect to face the most number of left-handed starters and which hitters on those teams that schedule is likely to impact. So let’s share those teams and which players gain and lose from the plethora of southpaws.
