Just when you thought Vladimir Guerrero Jr. was officially entering his prime years, he takes a step back, suffering a .032 point wOBA slide. A decline in power fueled the decline, as both his ISO and HR/FB rate hit their lowest marks since his 2019 debut. The rest of his skill set remained stable and strong, though I would still love to see a higher FB%, along with a higher rate of his fly balls being pulled. That said, even without such improvements, you have to think his power rebounds and he’ll be closer to 30 homers than 20 homers this upcoming season. He remains the clear-cut top first baseman in my eyes.

I can’t yet picture Pete Alonso donning a uniform other than the Mets, but the park switch might be a slight positive for his BABIP and bigger positive for his HR/FB rate. He’s been remarkably consistent throughout his career, with the only real fluctuations coming from a BABIP that plunged to just .205 in 2023, and then spiked to .305 in 2025. His HardHit% and Barrel% both spiked to new highs in 2025, but he failed to translate those gains into a higher HR/FB rate thanks to a career worst flyball Pull%. There’s little reason to expect anything different than what he’s done recently, but 126 RBI is not happening again.

Bryce Harper has continued to maintain a remarkably stable skill set, with the only blemish last season coming from a decline in BABIP. That mark dropped to its lowest over a full season since 2018. It was likely driven by a drop in LD%, his lowest over a full season since 2016. Everything here looks pretty good, except for a maxEV that is slowly falling. As usual, it all comes down to health.

My, oh my, Nick Kurtz made his MLB debut on April 23 after just 151 minor league Pas and did this?! He recorded the 29th best wOBA by a rookie with at least 450 PAs going all the way back to 1871 (1,131 qualifiers). However, red flags include a strikeout rate just over 30% and a .371 xwOBA that was meaningfully lower than his actual .419 mark. Then again, he’ll certainly accumulate at least 100 more PAs if healthy. Regression is almost surely a lock, but how much is the question.

Aside from a jump in BABIP that reached a career high, this was almost a carbon copy of Matt Olson‘s 2024 performance. Of course, these last two seasons have been a far cry from his incredible 2023, which is looking more and more like a career year that he will never come close to approaching again. The skills remain quite strong, though, with the only red flag coming from a career worst flyball Pull%. If he could drive that back toward his career mark, he’ll have a chance to return to the 20% HR/FB rate plateau and flirt with 40 home runs.

Freddie Freeman‘s highest strikeout rate since 2016 didn’t affect his performance, thanks to a BABIP rebound after posting his second lowest mark in 2024. That increased strikeout rate was driven by a spike in SwStk%, which combined with his lowest xwOBA since tracking began in 2015, are causes for concern as he enters his age 36 season. The power still looks good, though, but his days as a lock for a .300 batting average might be over.

Unsurprisingly, Josh Naylor‘s power dipped right back down to historical levels after career best output in 2024. He’ll now play a full season calling the league’s worst park for left-handed offense home, though he did post a .431 wOBA at T-Mobile Park after his arrival. Of course, the elephant in the room is the 30 steals, five more than he had totaled in his entire career previously. He succeeded on about 94% of his attempts (and 100% with the Mariners), so does he keep running? If he does slow down, how much regression should we expect? These are the questions that keep me up at night.

The move to the Yankees and one of the best home run parks in baseball for left-handers didn’t exactly ignite a return to Cody Bellinger‘s peak power years. He did, however, enjoy a strong fantasy season and his delicious combination of a low strikeout rate and high FB% fueled his third highest home run total. I don’t quite see all the stars aligning again, but I still feel like there’s ample upside to his league average HR/FB rate. Currently a free agent , his projected value will ultimately depend on his landing spot.

Rafael Devers enjoyed yet another strong performance, despite his highest strikeout rate over a full season. Unfortunately, he’ll now be calling home for a full season one of the league’s worst parks for left-handed batters. Devers’ historical BABIP, HR/FB, and wOBA splits followed the Fenway Park factors, so Oracle Park could hamper his BABIP and reduce his HR/FB rate even further. He does get a nice boost in OBP leagues, though, depending on how real that walk rate spike was.

Pulling his fly balls has never been Yandy Díaz’s thing, but he managed to record a career high HR/FB rate despite posting a career low flyball Pull%. With his extreme groundball tendency, his home run total will continue to be difficult to predict, making him an annual risk to deliver just an empty batting average.

I have salivated over Vinnie Pasquantino‘s skill set for a while now and the fantasy breakout came in 2025. He seemingly pumped up the power at the expense of his strikeout rate, and his Statcast metrics suggest there’s still additional power upside left. Sadly, he calls the worst park for left-handed dingers home, which definitely caps his output, but that doesn’t mean there aren’t still brighter days ahead. The lack of steals and low BABIP hurt, but perhaps he’ll luck into a .300+ latter mark and surprise us with a .300 batting average.

Tyler Soderstrom‘s performance was a near mirror image of his 2024 partial season, with the exception coming from a significantly higher BABIP. The power is certainly real, but his home run output was capped by a low FB%. He also should really be pulling a higher rate of his flyballs. With multiple paths to a higher long ball total, 30 dingers are easily within reach, but I wouldn’t bank on a positive contribution from his batting average again.

Playing his way into a regular, rotating between first base, DH, and catcher, Ben Rice enjoyed a true breakout year. With excellent contact ability for a power hitter, a flyball tendency, and elite Statcast metrics, there might even be serious upside from here. Heck, he actually underperformed his xwOBA by .038 points! The risk of falling into a strong side platoon role will remain, as he has posted just an 88 wRC+ against left-handers over his short career, but a higher 104 mark in 2025. Oh, and since he still qualifies at catcher, you’re probably starting him there the vast majority of the time.

Nope, I definitely did not foresee 30+ home runs for Michael Busch in what was a strong side platoon role. Impressively, he enjoyed a massive Barrel% surge, ranking 11th in the metric among qualified batters, while also increasing his flyball Pull%. There were improvements across the board here, so the performance looks supported. However, can he maintain such improvements? I would guess he holds onto a portion of his gains and finishes somewhere between 2024 and 2025, but slightly closer to his 2025 results.

Another first base eligible catcher who you’re likely to slot into the weaker position slot, Salvador Perez hit the second most home runs of his career…at age 35. This guy just doesn’t slow down! The skills here all look quite stable, and the only blemish was a BABIP plunge, which appears to be a fluke. He’ll probably suffer some age-related decline at some point, or get hurt and miss a chunk of time, but there’s nothing suggesting any of that is imminent.

Jake Burger‘s first season with the Rangers didn’t exactly go as planned, as he disappointed with the bat, leading to a short minor league demotion, and missed time to injury. His HR/FB rate collapsed, despite stable Statcast power metrics, thanks to a near halving of his flyball Pull%, which is truly bizarre to observe. Assuming that mark rebounds, his power should return, making him a strong rebound candidate.

One of the most anticipated debuts of 2025, Jac Caglianone ended up as a bust over a small sample size thanks to just a .239 wOBA and over a month missed due to a strained hamstring. He rose quickly through the minors after being drafted sixth overall in 2024, posting an absurd .446 wOBA in the minors in 2025, including an even crazier .478 mark at Triple-A. The good news here is that the underlying skills in the Majors were actually pretty good and he underperformed his xwOBA by a ridiculous .079 points. Calling the worst park for left-handed dingers home ain’t great, but he should rebound dramatically during his sophomore campaign.

Injury cut into what was shaping up to be a really strong season for Jonathan Aranda. Unfortunately, essentially all of the impressive performance could be chalked up to a .409 BABIP, which easily led baseball among hitters with at least 400 PAs. Though he does have a history of high BABIP marks in the minors, the chances of another .400+ mark, particularly over a full season, are almost nil. On the bright side, his Statcast metrics suggest power upside, especially if his flyball Pull% rises toward league average.

For a guy slapped with such underwhelming Hit and Game/Raw Power scouting grades, Sal Stewart has been awfully impressive offensively in the minors. He enjoyed a massive power spike over a small Triple-A sample after his promotion, and that carried over during his cup of coffee with the Reds. He doesn’t strike out often, walks enough, has recorded excellent Statcast metrics, and even swiped 17 bases in 20 tries. Without a clear position, his playing time isn’t as secure as you’d like, but I love the upside here.

A whopping 14 home runs over the final two months of the season saved Christian Walker from disappointing in that department. His Statcast power metrics do appear stable, so there should be no worries about the distribution of his home runs in 2025. What is concerning is a SwStk% that skyrocketed, driving a spike in strikeout rate, both to career worsts. Heading into his age 35 season, a rebound might not be in the cards, meaning a reduction in counting stats and another weak batting average.

Alec Burleson‘s skill set reminds me a lot of Pasquantino’s, but the former clearly owns inferior raw power. Still, there’s probably a bit of power upside here, but he’ll need to reverse his flyball Pull% that has been trending in the wrong direction and sits well above league average.

The catcher eligibility is officially gone after Willson Contreras served as the Cardinals’ regular first baseman. Predictably, he recorded a career high PAs, which also led to career bests in both runs scored and RBI, though notably not home runs. That’s because his HR/FB rate slid to the second lowest of his career, despite strong and stable Statcast power metrics. Heck, his flyball Pull% even jumped to a career best! So the HR/FB rate decline seems like a clear fluke, which means we could see him make a run at exceeding his current career high of 24 homers. The trade to the Red Sox should be a positive for his HR/FB rate as he struggled at Busch Stadium and Fenway Park’s right-handed HR park factor is a bit less pitcher friendly.

Gosh, Nolan Schanuel‘s skill set is so intriguing with a double digit walk rate, few swings and misses leading to a low strikeout rate, and an excellent batted ball type profile. And yet, the production simply hasn’t been there, thanks to a below average BABIP and underwhelming power. One has to wonder if the power will ever manifest, as his Statcast metrics have been poor, including ranking just 216th out of 226 in average bat speed in 2025.

The consistency continues for Alec Bohm, which is both appreciated and disappointing at the same time. We keep waiting for a major power spike, but his Barrel% has been stuck in the 5.7%-6.8% range, which has kept his HR/FB rate pretty stable. Perhaps that surge will finally occur at age 29? If not, at least he remains a positive batting average contributor.

After taking a season off, the former top prospect version of Spencer Torkelson returned! His results were almost identical to his 2023 season, which begs the question of what actually happened in 2024. His old scouting grades and current Statcast power metrics do suggest there should be some additional HR/FB rate upside here. That could be a boon for his home run total given his extreme FB%. Sadly, the batting average is unlikely to ever be a positive given consistently low BABIP marks thanks to those flyball ways.

Kyle Manzardo somehow managed to score just 47 runs, while hitting 27 home runs. That fun fact either says a lot about his surrounding lineup’s inability to knock him in, his exteme lack of speed (he ranked just 529th out of 579 in Sprint Speed), or a combination of both. Other than that disappointing total, he pretty much performed as expected. Keep in mind that with a career 79 wRC+ against left-handers, he’s likely to end up on the strong side of a platoon, hampering his counting stats.

Spencer Steer posted an identical wOBA as his 2024 season and his fantasy contributions were similar, except for one glaring difference. His stolen base total declined from 25 to just seven, which really cut into his fantasy value. He continues to remain an excellent basestealer, so he should run more often, but it’s anyone’s guess whether that will actually happen.

It was another lost season for Triston Casas, who has now missed significant chunks of time to injury two years in a row. The skills here are pretty good all around, and he enjoys a significant boost in value in OBP leagues thanks to the double digit walk rate. If he manages to stay healthy all year, he would be a near lock to deliver significant profit to his fantasy owners. The arrival of Willson Contreras clouds Casas’ playing time outlook, but you have to imagine more moves are coming to ensure regular at-bats. If not, he’ll be dropped from the rankings.

All Andrew Vaughn needed was to get out of Chicago, eh?! He posted a .373 wOBA with the Brewers after a .230 mark with the White Sox, and nothing higher than a .327 mark over a full season previously. His walk rate surged, strikeout rate dramatically improved, and his BABIP skyrocketed. His power, though, didn’t get a boost like his other skills and results, as he largely posted the same Statcast metrics. His new home park is far better for right-handed home runs and those Statcast metrics typically match with a significantly higher HR/FB rate than he’s posted, so there’s hope for better results.

Munetaka Murakami is a Chicago White Sock! That’s a sentence I did not expect to type. The upside is obvious — with 70/70 Game Power, 80/80 Raw Power, and ISO marks of .392 and .390 in 2022 and 2025, the power is immense. The downside, though, is he fails to make enough contact to actually take advantage of those power skills. His SwStk% has risen for four straight seasons, while his Z-Contact% is bad, very bad. He does walk a lot, which could make him a far better risk in OBP formats. Outside of such leagues, and in the format these rankings are based on, he’s the epitome of a lottery ticket.

Josh Bell joins his sixth team since 2022, becoming the Twins’ new regular first baseman. He’s coming off his third highest xwOBA, thanks to a career best strikeout rate, while a career high FB% is a good sign for his home run potential, if repeated, of course. He also posted the second highest HardHit% and Barrel% of his career, but those surges didn’t impact his HR/FB rate much. We still haven’t seen the peak power he last showed back in 2021, but even at age 33, it appears his power skills remain intact.

Ernie Clement makes fantastic contact…and that’s about it. He has oddly been a fly ball hitter the last two seasons despite owning limited power and that has hampered his BABIP. He could be of more use in batting average if he optimized his batted ball type profile, so we’ll see if that ever happens. For now, he looks like a light contributor across the board, but with risk of losing playing time and becoming merely a super utility guy.

After disappointing offensively in previous chances, former top prospect Miguel Vargas finally completed a full season in the Majors and hit respectably. His batted ball type profile is fascinating, as he has been an extreme flyball hitter, despite posting only mid-single digit HR/FB rates. However, his Statcast power metrics suggest much higher marks, so there’s seemingly some additional home run upside. It’s too bad all those flies have crushed his BABIP and batting average.

It’s been two seasons so far for former top prospect Colt Keith and he has yet to deliver much fantasy value. His Statcast power metrics did surge in 2025,, but his HR/FB rate only increased marginally. Without much speed, he’ll need to recapture the power he showed back in the minors. Don’t forget he’s entering just his age 24 season, so he’s got plenty of time for the power to reappear.

Gavin Sheets enjoyed his first season with the Padres, as he posted his highest BABIP and HR/FB rate. All of his Statcast power metrics spiked and actually suggest higher than the low double digit HR/FB rate he recorded. With decent other skills across the board, he should at least be as good as he was in 2025. However, his history shouldn’t be totally ignored, which makes him a risk if you’re counting on him to remain a starter all season.

A career best walk rate led to Jake Cronenworth’s highest wOBA since his first full season in 2021, but it failed to deliver positive fantasy value. With little speed, middling power, and a weak batting average, he’s a classic accumulator whose value is strictly tied to his everyday role.