The Nationals spent a good portion of the offseason trying to woo Prince Fielder to the nation’s capitol even though they already had a pretty good first baseman in place. That first baseman is Mike Morse, not the $16M man Adam LaRoche. LaRoche missed all but 43 games of 2012 due to a torn labrum and rotator cuff in his left shoulder, an injury that completely sabotaged him at the plate (.258 wOBA in 177 PA) during his first year in Washington.

The 32-year-old LaRoche is now close to nine months out from surgery and working his way back in Spring Training. He told Mark Zuckerman that swinging the bat is not a problem (though he has yet to face live pitching), but he still hasn’t cut it loose when throwing. Since Morse can play the outfield, the Nats will have no problem fitting both men in the lineup if they make it through camp healthy and deserving of regular playing time.

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Yu Darvish isn’t baseball’s only super-hyped, high-priced international import this year; the Athletics also made waves when they signed Cuban outfielder Yoenis Cespedes. There has been some speculation that he could begin the season in the minors just to get acclimated to the best pitching he’s ever faced (as well as shake off the rust after such a long layoff), but it doesn’t sound like that will happen after signing for four years and $36 million.

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Over the last few weeks we’ve spent some time crowdscourcing Yu Darvish’s expected 5×5 stats and ottoneu points production, and now I want to use that data to crowdsource his expected draft round and various auction values. But first, a quick recap of our previous crowdsourcing escapades…

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First base is the most productive position in fantasy, whether you prefer traditional 5×5 scoring or the linear weights points scoring in ottoneu leagues. Late round first basemen like the two fellas we’re going to talk about today figure to be as productive as many top middle infielders in the power and run production departments, though they’ll probably lag in batting average and almost certainly will in stolen bases. Value is value though.

Lucas Duda of the Mets and Justin Smoak of the Mariners come from very, very different backgrounds. Duda was an unheralded seventh round pick who never appeared on any kind of top prospect list and had to prove himself each step of the way in the minors. Smoak was the eleventh overall pick in the draft and twice considered one of the 25 best prospects in the game by Baseball America before being the headliner in a trade package for an elite, ace-level pitcher. Despite those differences, they’re expected to produce almost the exact same fantasy value next year according to our Fan Projections…

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Exactly fifty players stole at least 20 bases last season, but only six of them did it in fewer plate appearances that Eduardo Nunez. The Yankees’ reserve infielder swiped 22 bags (in 28 tries) in 2011 while only coming to the plate 338 times, and only four of those steals came as a pinch-runner. The six guys who stole at least 20 bases in fewer plate appearances fit into two basic categories…

Everyday Players in 2012
Dee Gordon (24 SB in 233 PA)
Jason Bourgeois (31 SB in 252 PA)
Desmond Jennings (20 SB in 287 PA)

Non-Everyday Players in 2012
Tony Campana (24 SB in 155 PA)
Eric Young Jr. (27 SB in 229 PA)
Jordan Schafer (22 SB in 337 PA)

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Last week we asked you folks to help give us an idea of Yu Darvish’s expected production in ottoneu points leagues during the 2012 season, and 135 of you were kind enough to response. It’s not the 560 responses we got for the 5×5 stats, but it’s more than enough for me. I blame it on the difference in popularity between the two scoring formats.

As a reminder, the points scoring is ottoneu is based on linear weights. You can review the point values and derivations here. The table after the jump shows the average crowdsourcing result for stat (rounded off) and the corresponding point value.

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After trying and failing to sign Carlos Pena earlier this offseason, the Indians satisfied their first base needs with another former Tampa Bay Ray last week: Casey Kotchman. They inked him to a one-year contract worth $3 million with a bunch of incentives, pushing Matt LaPorta aside for the time being.

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The Orioles and Rockies pulled off a mildly surprising trade yesterday, with Jeremy Guthrie heading to Colorado in exchange for Matt Lindstrom and Jason Hammel. The money is essentially a wash, so each club just rearranged the furniture a little bit. Guthrie’s fantasy outlook does change with the trade, but just how much? Let’s figure it out.

First and foremost, we have to understand that Guthrie is one of those rare guys that defies DIPS theory. He’s logged over 1,000 innings in the big leagues, and his career ERA (4.19) is roughly half-a-run lower than his FIP (4.68) and xFIP (4.61). As with Matt Cain, the guy has thrown so many innings that we’re at the point were we have to start thinking about him differently than other pitchers because he possesses some kind of skill that allows him to outperform his peripherals. I don’t know how he does it, but he does. Read the rest of this entry »

Once Yu Darvish agreed to his fat new contract with the Rangers a few weeks ago, we crowdsourced his traditional 5×5 stats to determine his fantasy worth. The results came back, and the 560 responses indicated that most of RotoGraphs’ readership expects him to approximate the 2011 version of Madison Bumgarner next season, meaning he’s a top 15-20 starting pitcher. This week we’re going to take it a step further and crowdsource Darvish’s ottoneu points stats.

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The Cubs have had just six regular first baseman since 1989, but they’ll make it seven in 2012. The new Theo Epstein-led regime hopes that the recently acquired Anthony Rizzo will stake a claim to the job for the foreseeable future, but he’s unlikely to be manning the position come Opening Day. That honor figures to go to Bryan LaHair, a 29-year-old journeyman-type with big minor league numbers and 219 big league plate appearances to his credit.

“I don’t believe in four-A players,” said Epstein in December. “Guys who can hit will hit when they’re given a chance. [LaHair] continued to rake in winter ball.”

Epstein wasn’t kidding. LaHair posted a .443 wOBA with 38 homers in Triple-A this year, then put together a .381 wOBA in 28 MLB games late in the season, and then went on to hit .272/.404/.592 with 15 homers in 47 winter ball games after the season. All told, the former 39th round pick of the Mariners hit .313/.403/.633 with 52 doubles and 55 homers in 196 total games in 2011, which is obviously huge production. That’s all well and good, but what does it mean for his fantasy value in 2012?

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