Out since last June, it looks like Reds’ righty Edinson Volquez will make his triumphant return to the big leagues this Saturday against the Rockies. He’s been on the shelf because of reconstructive elbow surgery, but he also mixed a 50-game PED suspension in there as well.

Part of that great win-win trade with the Rangers and Josh Hamilton, Volquez broke out in a big way in 2008, putting together a 4.3 WAR season thanks to 196 innings of 3.60 FIP ball. Last year didn’t go as well before the elbow gave out (5.01 FIP in 49.2 IP), but Volquez is healthy now, which is a great thing for fantasy owners.

Always a high strikeout (8.51 K/9 career, 9.46 in ’08), high walk (4.62 BB/9 career, 4.27 in ’08) power arm (averaged 93.6-93.8 mph on the fastball from 2006-2009), Volquez rolled through the minors during his rehab stint, posting a 28/8 K/BB ratio in 31 IP (six starts) and showing his old velocity. The question isn’t if he’s ready to return to the show physically, but how much should we expect out of him.

The biggest issue are the walks. Command and control is typically the last thing to come back after elbow surgery, and Edinson didn’t exactly pound the strike zone before getting hurt either. I wouldn’t read anything into his 2.3 BB/9 during the rehab stint, because not only is it a tiny sample, but young players in the bush leagues will chase stuff off the plate and get themselves out. Good luck doing that against a non-Astros big league lineup. With the elbow issues last season, Volquez walked a ridiculous 5.8 batters per nine, and I would anticipate something between his ’08 and ’09 marks through the end of the season. Something right around five makes sense, but he could easily best that.

Volquez has always been tough to hit, and I wouldn’t expect that to change, nor would I expect his strikeout rate to plummet. That will help keep his WHIP in check despite the all the free passes. Conservatively assuming 8.5 K/9 with 5.0 BB/9 and 1.0 HR/9 should translate to a low- to mid-4.00’s ERA, which has lots of value when you consider that Volquez has the potential to be so much better than that. The Reds have a solid back-end of the bullpen, so leads and wins should be safe. Coming back from Tommy John surgery can be tricky, but guys with this kind of sheer stuff have a lot more room for error.

Volquez is owned in just 27% of Yahoo! leagues, and even if his return comes a little later than this Saturday, run out and grab him. Adding a starter of this caliber and this late in the season usually takes a trade, but now you (might) have a chance to pull it off without sacrificing anything more than waiver priority. That Saturday start comes against the Rox, and after that Cincinnati has dates with the Nationals, Astros, Brewers, Braves, and Pirates.

Two blasts from the past that could give your team a little nudge in the right direction…

Freddy Garcia | SP | White Sox | 13% owned

You have to hand it to the now 35-year-old Garcia. The guy made just 23 starts over the last three seasons because of shoulder issues, but he’s returned this year and hasn’t missed a single start. The former Randy Johnson trade bait has fired off ten quality starts in his last 12 outings, and has pitched to a 3.25 ERA since late-May. No, the season peripherals don’t line up (5.57 K/9, 2.69 BB/9, 1.21 HR/9), but they have been better during this recent run of success (6.15 K/9, 1.88 BB/9, 0.68 HR/9).

(R) ZiPS understandably predicts just eight more starts with a 4.93 ERA (4.61 FIP) and 5.79 K/9 the rest of the season, but Chicago’s schedule features 13 consecutive games against the Mariners and Athletics following this weekend’s four game set with Minnesota, so there’s definitely an opportunity to steal some wins here. Plus the ChiSox never seem to lose these days (25-5 over the last month or so). If nothing else, recent history is on his side.

Corey Patterson | OF | Orioles | 10%

Yeah yeah yeah, call me hypocrite, I deserve it. Admitting your mistakes is part of the fantasy game, we’ve all been there. In my defense, we’ve reached the point of the season where legitimate bargains are nowhere to be found on the waiver wire, replaced by the usual dreck of injury fill-ins and the occasional player on a hot streak. Patterson is one of those guys on a hot streak.

Since mid-June, Patterson has fashioned a more than solid .333/.362/.468 batting line from atop Baltimore’s lineup, and best of all he’s stolen ten bags in that time. His season BABIP sits at .361, and during the recent hot streak it was an unsustainable .416, but there’s no reason we can’t ride this thing out, especially when there are stolen bases involved. (R) ZiPS calls for 204 plate appearances of utter mediocrity the rest of the way (.249/.288/.389, eight steals), but if he can chip in a half-dozen steals and not kill your AVG over the next week or two, what’s not to like?

Ownership rates are based on Yahoo! leagues.

The first place Cincinnati Reds called up a pair of lefthanded starters over the last two weeks or so to replace the injured Homer Bailey (following a Sam LeCure cameo) and Aaron Harang, and both bring some fantasy potential.

The first, and more permanent of the two is 23-year-old Travis Wood, who grabbed some headlines over the weekend by taking a perfect game into the 9th against the Phillies. His minor league career consists of lots of strikeouts (8.4 K/9), a good amount of ground balls (43.1% ground balls), and more recently very few walks (2.6 BB/9 over the last two seasons), three skills you want every young pitcher to possess. Wood has already made three starts for the Reds, sandwiching a pair of gems around one clunker.

The second of the two is 26-year-old Matt Maloney, who was acquired in the Kyle Lohse deal a few years back. His minor league career is similar to Wood’s in terms of strikeouts (8.7 K/9) and grounders (42.8%), though his track record of good control (2.7 BB/9) is quite a bit longer. In seven career big league starts over the last two seasons (two this year), Maloney has seen his strikeout rate dip, which is not unprecedented.

Baseball America rated Wood and Maloney as the team’s 7th and 8th best prospects coming into the season, saying both were back of the rotation candidates that lacked the pure stuff to be more. I’m a sucker for strikeout lefties, and both of these guys have the ability to post low- to mid-4.00’s ERA with enough wins and enough strikeouts to be serviceable fifth or sixth starters on a fantasy squad. I wouldn’t start them against high caliber offenses, but the NL Central offers enough weak competition to make the duo useful for the duration.

Thirteen of Cincinnati’s first 19 post-All Star break games are against the Nationals, Astros, Brewers, and Pirates, so there’s some decent matchups coming up. Wood is owned in 13% of Yahoo! leagues, Maloney still 0%.

There won’t be too many rotation spots changing this week for obvious reasons, but here are a few notes anyway…

Jorge De La Rosa | Rockies | 56% owned

Last year’s breakout lefty had been out since late April with a flexor band strain in his middle finger before returning last week. The Padres knocked him around (seven runs in 4.1 IP), but I wouldn’t let that sway my outlook much. JDLR is still a super-high strikeout pitcher (10.54 K/9 in 2010, six last start), but his shaky control means he’ll never dominate the ERA and WHIP categories. (R) ZiPS projects a 4.80 ERA (4.13 FIP) with 8.10 K/9 the rest of the way, but a little LOB% luck (62.2% this year, 68.5% over the last three years) could have his ERA in the low-4.00’s. His first start after the break will come in Cincinnati on Saturday.

Daniel Hudson | White Sox | 7% owned

David Golebiewski already took an in-depth look at Hudson, so I’m going to cop out and refer you to that. Hudson is taking the place of Jake Peavy, who is done for the season after tearing a lat muscle right off the bone. Ouch. He’ll first start of the second half comes in Seattle, but not until next Monday.

Chris Tillman | Orioles | 2% owned

Back in the bigs after a rather disastrous four start stint with the O’s earlier this season (15 R, 8 BB, 7 K in 15 IP), Tillman twirled a gem on Saturday, holding the Rangers to two hits and one unearned run in 7.1 IP. Tillman’s strikeout rate has never been the same since getting his first taste of the bigs last year, going from 9.94 K/9 before his ML debut to 5.89 since (majors and minors). Phil Hughes went through something similar when he debuted, and it had more to do with rookie jitters (nibbling instead of attacking hitters) than decline in stuff. I’d expect Tillman to improve his strikeout rate in the future, but that probably won’t come this year. He has value in a deep keeper league, but not much more than that.

Ownership rates are based on Yahoo! leagues.

Some old and new blood for your team…

Jason Giambi | 1B | Rockies | 1% owned

The underperforming Todd Helton is now on the shelf with a back issue, opening up Colorado’s first base spot for Giambi, the former fantasy megastar. Giambi still has the same skills he has throughout his entire career, though his power hasn’t shown up as much with infrequent playing time. He’s still an on-base monster (.382 OBP despite a .234 AVG), and I suspect that his 7.7% HR/FB will go up with more at-bats. He’s going to platoon with Brad Eldred, so just make sure you sit him against lefthanders.

Daniel Hudson | SP | White Sox | 3%

Yanked from the Futures Game roster because of the injury to Jake Peavy, Hudson will assume Chicago’s now vacant rotation spot for the foreseeable future. The 23-year-old shot up the ladder last season (five levels including MLB) and contributed 18.2 rather forgettable innings to the ChiSox. Hudson posted a 3.47 ERA with 10.4 K/9 at Triple-A this year, and really the only problem is that he’s homer prone (1.3 HR/9), not exactly an ideal trait considering Chicago’s ball park. He could contribute a low-4.00’s ERA with a fair amount of strikeouts the rest of the way, but he’s not an every start guy. You’re going to have to pick your spots. Hudson starts against the Royals (and Zack Greinke) on Sunday before the All Star break.

Ownerships rates are based on Yahoo! leagues.

With the Blue Jays in the middle of their annual fade from contention (16-24 since May 20th), there’s a very real chance that the team will look to sell high on All Star John Buck and his career (.351 wOBA, 1.4 WAR) year. He’s scheduled to become a free agent after the season and is dangerously close to falling out of Type-B status, meaning he could walk with Toronto receiving nothing in return. They already have a competent backup in Jose Molina, but more importantly, they have a big time prospect mashing in Triple-A.

J.P. Arencibia, the 21st overall pick in the 2007 draft, is currently hitting .317/.366/.641 with 26 doubles and 21 homers in 306 plate appearances at Las Vegas, his second season at the level. He’s performing better away from hitter friendly Cashman Field (.365/.403/.730), and MinorLeagueSplits.com has his park neutralized batting line at .301/.350/.605, obviously still stellar. It’s quick the rebound for Arencibia, who hit just .236/.284/.444 at the same level and in the same park last season.

The former Tennessee Volunteer dropped out of Baseball America’s Top 100 Prospects list this season after they ranked him as the 43rd best prospect in the game rior to the 2009 season. Our own Marc Hulet didn’t lose the faith, ranking Arencibia as the game’s 86th best prospect this March. The crew at BA said the 24-year-old’s “swing is long and his bat speed is ordinary,” but he still “could provide 20-25 homers on an annual basis and solid defense.”

Even if it comes with the caveat of a .230 or .240 AVG, a backstop that smacks 20 homers has plenty of fantasy value. Miguel Olivo has always seemed to find a fantasy home despite a similar skill set, right down to the hacktastic approach. In fairness, Arencibia boasts a career high walk rate this year and has steadily improved ever so slightly in that department through the years, but I don’t think we’ll ever see even a 50 walk season out of him.

If you’re hurting for a catcher, especially in an AL-only setup or a deep mixed league, Arencibia’s a great guy to stash on the bench for the inevitable call up. At the very least, I would expect the Jays to bring him up in September as an audition for next year’s starting job.

Some pre-All Star break changes to a few rotation spots…

Felix Doubront | Red Sox | 0% owned

All Star Clay Buchholz hit the disabled list with a hamstring issue, convenient timing for the Red Sox since he’s only likely to miss one start because of off days and the break. Doubront made a solid but unspectacular start against the Dodgers a few weeks ago, allowing three earned runs and eight baserunners in five innings of work. The hard throwing lefty gets the suddenly surging Rays (35 runs scored in their last six games) on Tuesday, and I can’t in good conscience advise starting a rookie on the road against a powerhouse team.

Barry Enright | Diamondbacks | 0%

A personal fave, Enright took the place of Dontrelle Willis in Arizona’s rotation, then went out and threw five innings of one run ball in St. Louis. The righthander’s minor league career featured very little in the way of strikeouts until this season (8.0 K/9), though he’s always been stingy with the free pass (1.9 BB/9). He strikes me as a lesser version of teammate Ian Kennedy, basically a more hittable and more traditional physically (6-foot-3, 220 lbs.). I like him as a matchup starter in an NL-only setup, though there’s no telling how many wins you’ll get with that bullpen behind him. Enright will start at home against the Cubs and Marlins before the break.

Jair Jurrjens | Braves | 61%

Back from a hamstring issue at the expense of Kenshin Kawakami (to the bullpen!), Jurrjens won’t, or at least shouldn’t be the 2.60 ERA guy he was in 2009 this year. The peripherals just didn’t line up. There was some BABIP (.273) and LOB% (79.4%) luck mixed in with the relatively low K/9 (6.36) and solid BB/9 (3.14), and xFIP had him at 4.34. I wouldn’t expect much more than a low-4.00’s ERA the rest of the way, especially after the injury. There’s value in that, but his perceived value seems to exceed his actual value. Jurrjens will pitch in Philadelphia in his last remaining start before the break.

Marc Rzepczynski | Blue Jays | 1%

Shaun Marcum is enjoying a fine first season back from Tommy John surgery (2.0 WAR), but he had to hit the disabled list with some elbow inflammation. Rzepczynski will fill in during his absence, though he could have had himself a rotation spot out of Spring Training if he didn’t break a finger trying to field a comebacker with his left (throwing) hand. Anyway, he was fantastic in 11 starts for Toronto last year (3.70 xFIP, 1.1 WAR) and strong in nine minor league starts this year, and should be good for on okay ERA with a fair amount of strikeouts the rest of the way. Not a fantasy star, but a viable option. Rzepcynski starts at home against the lefty heavy Twins on Wednesday.

Ownership rates are based on Yahoo! leagues.

A late evening edition of the scrap heap all stars, featuring one arm and one bat…

Gio Gonzalez | SP | Athletics | 28% owned

The curveball extraordinaire has developed into a rock solid workhorse for the A’s, posting a 4.34 xFIP even though his strikeout rate has dipped below one per inning for the first time in his (relatively short) big league career. (R) ZiPS isn’t very optimistic because they expect his walk rate and BABIP to climb in the second half. I’m a fan because Gonzalez misses bats with his curve and his velocity is at an all-time high. Gio’s final two starts before the break come on the road in Cleveland and at home against the Yankees.

Andres Torres | OF | Giants | 10 %

If you can quietly stand on 2.8 WAR on July 1st, Torres is doing it. The 32-year-old switch hitting outfielder has posted a strong .272/.371/.443 triple-slash line with 35 runs scored and 14 steals, setting the table atop the Giants’ lineup. (R) ZiPS predicts a crash back to Earth (.334 wOBA) mostly because his previous big league exploits have been uninspiring. As long as he’s producing at his current levels, he’ll have value in basically all leagues and is worth a spot on your roster.

Trading season is just waiting to explode, and the Rangers made the first strike yesterday by acquiring Bengie Molina. The deal doesn’t have much impact in the grand scheme of things, but in the world of fantasy baseball it does give the elder Molina brother a little bit more value.

Obviously, he’s going from one extreme to the other in terms of run environment. The Giants as a team have a .320 wOBA and play in a park that’s been pretty neutral over the last three seasons offensively (using ESPN’s park factors), while the Rangers boast a .343 wOBA while playing a park that’s inflated offense about 12.4% over that same three year time period. That alone is going to help his fantasy offensive output, which currently stands at .257-3-17.

After three straight seasons of 80+ RBI, fantasy gold for a catcher, (R) ZiPS sees just 36 more steaks with a .265 AVG coming Molina’s way. Believe it or not, that’s the sixth highest predicted RBI total for a catcher by the system, behind the usual cast of characters (Joe Mauer, Victor Martinez, Brian McCann, Geovany Soto, Kurt Suzuki), and ahead of guys like Jorge Posada and Matt Wieters and Yadier Molina. If nothing else, at least the spreadsheets are on Bengie’s side.

I wouldn’t recommend relying on Molina as your top backstop (unless you’re in an exceptionally deep league, or something) just because the guy’s less that three weeks away from his 36th birthday and has one foot in the batter’s box and one in the glue factory. If you’re dealing with an injury (say, to Martinez), then Bengie will help you keep your head above water for the time being. He’s not a top fantasy backstop, but there are worse emergency options.

The last week and a half have really been hell on fantasy owners. First Troy Tulowitzki went down, then Dustin Pedroia, then Victor Martinez. Now it’s a pair of Phillies’ infielders. The Phightin’s lost both Chase Utley and Placido Polanco to the disabled list today, and it’s unclear how long either will be out.

I’m certain there’s some poor sap out there that had both Utley and Polanco on his/her team, so let’s try to help them out. Replacement options for Utley are the same as they are for Pedroia, so I’m just going to refer you to that post. Meanwhile, here’s a few 3B options you can turn to in Polanco’s stead…

Eric Hinske | Braves | 6%

The versatile Hinske is eligible at not only 3B, but also 1B and OF in Yahoo! leagues. A platoon player basically all season, injuries to Nate McLouth and Jason Heyward have forced him into every day duty, which really isn’t a problem when he’s got a .380 wOBA and 30 RBI. His .302 AVG will come down as his .360 BABIP regresses, but (R) ZiPS still projects a .351 wOBA the rest of the way. Atlanta won’t face another LHP until the middle of next week at the earliest, so you’re in the clear for a while.

Kevin Kouzmanoff | Athletics | 27%

Kouz is a below average offensive player overall (.321 wOBA), but his fantasy totals are pretty solid for an injury fill in (.285 AVG, 8 HR, 39 RBI). He’ll kill you in an OBP league (just a .317 OBP), though. (R) ZiPS calls for .268-10-43 the rest of the season, but hopefully you won’t need him for that long.

Felipe Lopez | Cardinals | 19%

Lopez is pressed into every day duty now with David Freese hitting the DL (guess we should include him in this post, huh?), though he’s not exactly killing it with a .248/.326/.391 batting line (four homers, four steals). Regular at-bats should help get him back in a groove (and help bring his .295 BABIP closer to his .319 career mark), and will hopefully add a few more steals to your ledger. Lopez is also eligible at 2B and SS, if that helps.

Ownership rates are based on Yahoo! leagues.