If we can assume relative health of the available third basemen heading into 2012, the position isn’t such a black hole as it appeared to be going into 2011. But taking an early look at the average draft position (ADP) on Mock Draft Central of those qualifying at the hot corner, it seems you’ll have to strike early or pay dearly if you want anyone who occupies the first couple of tiers.

It’s likely no surprise that Jose Bautista is the highest on the list, and among third basemen, he’s very much in a class by himself. But as it stands, Evan Longoria is even sniffing the first round with an ADP of 12.6. Coming off the board in rounds three and four are David Wright, Adrian Beltre, and Ryan Zimmerman, in that order. In standard leagues, that’s very much your first and second tier — gone by the end of the 4th round.

Read the rest of this entry »

So Michael Pineda has parlayed his All-Star performance in Seattle into a gig in the Big Apple due to the overwhelming needs of Seattle’s offense. Many are thinking Pineda slots in right behind C.C. Sabathia as the team’s #2 starter, but as far as fantasy baseball is concerned, I think a degree of caution is prudent.

Pineda demonstrated a pretty tremendous amount of talent in 2011, no question. He was among league leaders in strikeouts per 9 innings pitched at 9.11 K/9 — just shy of Tim Lincecum and a touch ahead of Justin Verlander. That’s pretty good company.

But we have only one season to gauge and frankly, Pineda entered 2011 as a fringe possibility in Seattle’s rotation to begin with. Before you go drafting him as your savior in fantasy baseball, take a step back and look objectively at the situation.

Read the rest of this entry »

In 2010, Danny Valencia established himself pretty quickly as a fan favorite in the Twin Cities as he hit .311/.351/.448 after being recalled from the minors on June 3rd. In just 322 plate appearances, he hit seven home runs, drove in 40 runs and flashed a pretty solid glove by UZR standards.

He was no doubt on many fantasy radars entering 2011 given the relative dearth of talent at third base, and he rewarded believers with 15 home runs and 72 RBI, but a pretty disappointing .246/.294/.383 line, good for just an 82 wRC+. Probably not what you had in mind if you drafted him as your everyday third baseman.

There’s both reason to be optimistic and there’s some reason to be cautious when looking at his prospects for 2012.

Read the rest of this entry »

The Cincinnati Reds, now with Mat Latos on board and apparently ready to let Mike Leake abscond with the back-end rotation duties, used their plethora of starters to acquire Sean Marshall, whom they view as having the potential to close games. In that deal, they jettisoned Travis Wood along with two youths to the Chicago Cubs, where he will likely slot in as the team’s #3 starter behind Ryan Dempster and Matt Garza, assuming of course that Garza is not traded.

Wood, 24, will be under team control for five years, so there’s certainly time for the Cubs to be patient, but for fantasy baseball purposes in 2012, the more pressing issue is what does this move mean for his value now.

In 2010, it appeared that Wood was establishing himself as a rising star with a 3.51 ERA (3.42 FIP), 1.08 WHIP, and a K/9 of 7.54 in over 100 innings pitched – all as a starter. Some concern was that his 2010 was somewhat buoyed by a .259 BABIP and a low HR/FB rate of 6.3% for a flyball pitcher in a hitters park. Indeed, 2011 treated him to a .324 BABIP although his HR/FB rate still remained low at 6.7%. On the whole, he was far more hittable and he lacked his usual control leading to a disappointing 4.84 ERA (4.06 FIP) and 1.49 WHIP, ultimately resulting in a demotion. When he was recalled, it was mostly as a reliever, and he remained ineffective.

Read the rest of this entry »

You’ve probably noticed by now that some of the gentlemen of Rotographs got together in their virtual forum to pull off a 12-team keeper draft over the weekend. Due to other obligations, the lists of participating managers didn’t include yours truly, so hopefully that will give me a bit more objectivity as I make a few observations.

I’ve been the resident third base scribe for the past year, so I’ll dedicate this short post to some of the more interesting picks involving the hot corner.

It didn’t take long for the debate to get brewing as Evan Longoria was selected as the overall #4 pick followed by Jose Bautista, overall #6. Longoria, coming off an injury-shortened season had an usually low batting average at .244, no doubt dragged down by miserable fortune (.239 BABIP). He has been a pretty remarkably consistent player, demonstrating the ability to hit for good average with a take-it-to-the-bank 30 HR’s and 100 RBI profile, assuming you toss out his career low 11% HR/FB from 2010. Bill James currently projects a .275/.370/.535, 35 HR, 116 RBI, 101 run season for Longoria, which probably earns him a #4 overall slot.

Read the rest of this entry »

The Chicago Cubs recently acquired Ian Stewart, ostensibly to man the position vacated by Aramis Ramirez. While those are pretty big shoes to fill, Stewart certainly has some intrigue relative to his fantasy baseball value.

Stewart, 26, seems to be a perennial sleeper on draft lists due to his singular ability to hit the ball out of the park. But both his real-life employer and his fantasy managers grew tired of his inability to make consistent contact, dragging his batting average into the range where he was barely useful — and then in 2011, the wheels fell off and he found himself routinely driving between Colorado Springs and Denver.

Stewart now gets the popular “change of scenery” to attempt to make a fresh start and revive the promise that made him a first round draft pick back in 2003. Will he be able to do it is the big question, of course.

Read the rest of this entry »

The San Diego Padres appear to have their closer.

After watching Heath Bell leave in free agency, many expected the Padres to look to their own pen to find their late-inning solution — but on Wednesday morning, they have reportedly acquired Huston Street from the Colorado Rockies for the reliable player to be named later. The trade for the Rockies is almost assuredly to clear cash in an effort to create flexibility for other moves, but until we learn more about their own plans for the closer role, the fantasy impact for now is that Huston Street’s stock just rose pretty significantly.

Why? The happiest place on Earth to pitch, of course.

Read the rest of this entry »

With Sergio Santos being traded to the Toronto Blue Jays for Nestor Molina on Tuesday afternoon, it seems to signal the raising of a white flag of sorts on the South side. Santos had a pretty spectacular year, serving primarily as the team closer, posting a 2.87 FIP with a staggering 13.07 K/9, saving 30 games over 63.1 innings pitched. Santos is presumably the closer in Toronto, where he will have great fantasy value, but who will be handling ninth inning duties for the White Sox is very much up in the air — although they have plenty of options.

First in line would presumably be Matt Thornton, who entered 2011 splitting duties with Chris Sale, and then kinda-sorta handed the full time closer role, and then subsequently blew up and was relegated back to set-up duties. And while he wasn’t quite as dominant has he was in the previous two seasons, he was still pretty nasty — putting up a 2.62 FIP and a 9.50 K/9 rate. His strikeouts were down from 12.02 K/9 in 2010, but even at 9.50, it was right in line with his career average. He was stung by some bad luck with a strand rate of just 61.2% whereas his career rate sits at 74.7%, not to mention a BABIP of .326 where his career rate is .295. After a horrific first month of the season (5.91 FIP), Thornton was mostly back to his old self, throwing 51 innings, giving up 45 hits, striking out 53, allowing just one home run, posting an ERA of 2.45 and holding opponents to a .232/.286/.289 triple-slash. But if there’s truly a fire sale going on, it’s probable that they’ll be taking offers for Thornton too.

Read the rest of this entry »

Much to our very own Brandon Warne’s chagrin, Matt Capps has returned to the Minnesota Twins, ostensibly to take over the role that he lost to Joe Nathan mid-season, serving as their resident fireman. The Twins have signed Capps to a one-year, $4.5 million dollar deal with a 2013 option for $6 million dollars. Fantasy managers, not to mention the Minnesota faithful, would like to know who plans to show up in 2012, the Matt Jeckyl or Matt Hyde version of Matt Capps.

In the last four seasons, serving as closer for the Pittsburgh Pirates, Washington Nationals, and the Minnesota Twins, he’s been dominant, and then miserable, twice over. His four year FIP rates as a world class amusement park ride:

Read the rest of this entry »

Found the light switch. In the zone. In a groove. Dialed. Signed a deal with the Devil.

Call it what you want, but after Mike Carp’s sizzling finish to 2011, fantasy managers want to know just who the hell this guy is who was supposed to be simply “organizational depth” for a fledgling franchise.

The 2011 Seattle Mariners, buoyed largely by some fantastic starting pitching, hung around in the AL West race long enough to let Mike Carp bludgeon AAA pitching until the organization couldn’t not call him up. So they did. And he stunk. He stunk badly. Like .200/.333/.257 with no home runs and 14 strikeouts over 15 games bad. And then they couldn’t not send him back down – which they did on July 3rd.

Read the rest of this entry »