First off, I’d say no. Very loudly, no. No, no, no. It’s a fools errand if you think you can predict a .399 slugging percentage into .498; a .110 ISO into .212; a HR per-at bat rate of 95 (!) to just 19. Nuts.

However, were there some lingering details about Chase Headley’s batting profile that should have made fantasy owners perhaps a little more bullish on his 2012 prospects? Probably.

Back in December, I suggested you might take a chance on Headley. An excerpt:

“I simply do not accept that Headley’s true talent, even considering the Petco effect, is something in the low 100′s in ISO. He’s turning 28 in May, he’s demonstrated much more power in the past, and if I were a betting type, I’d say we could see something more in the .140′s — which doesn’t turn him into a masher, but it would certainly portend more home runs in the future.”

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Alrighty then, let’s just get the self-flagellation out of the way so I can enjoy the playoffs. Back in March, I was cajoled into providing my ten bold predictions for the 2012 season, and looking back on them, I think we can successfully get me out of the bold prediction business.

This will be quick and painful for me, but perhaps it will give you some amusement to take your mind off of any fantasy baseball related failures that this day concludes.

1. Dan Haren will win 20 games.

Since I’m going to take a beating here, I might as well tell you that I picked Dan Haren for the AL Cy Young too. It was an argument wrapped up in his rotten luck with run support in 2011, and figuring the addition of some guy named Al might help that, I thought he’d have a darn fine chance of racking up the wins. He rewarded me with 12 and what was probably his worst season since he was a rookie with the Cardinals. Super.

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Looking at what’s available this weekend, perhaps it should be titled “steaming” weekend starters because there’s slim pick’ens to be had.  Still, there are some interesting options for you should you be in panic mode for wins and strikeouts, a mode in which the author of this post resides in at least two leagues. So let’s get to it.

Steve Johnson

Yes, Steve Johnson. Johnson, who slogged through the minors for the past eight years, seemed to finally put it together in AAA in 2012 with a 2.86 ERA and a 8.5 K/9. He gave up just 66 hits over 91 innings pitched at AAA, striking out 86 batters. He was called up to Baltimore mostly to serve as a reliever where he’s been quite effective — throwing 16 innings, giving up just 7 hits and striking out 21 batters. But he’s also been used as a spot starter, making three starts and he’s been equally good. In those starts, he’s thrown 17 innings, given up 12 hits (10 singles), and struck out 22. His main bugaboo (oh, Mom I blame you for that word) is the free pass as he’s walked 15 batters over his 33.1 innings pitched and he’s had a history of control issues throughout the minors.

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We’re almost in rear-view mirror mode. Impossible though it may be to comprehend, the season is almost over and if you’re not winning your league, you’re currently on the sliding scale of realizing you’re not going to win your league. If you find yourself in the latter group, I’m sorry for that.

With losing in mind, however, I wanted to highlight a draft that I thought was just simply ludicrous back in March. A manager punted pitching. Like, the whole thing. Not just saves — but anyone who might toe the rubber.

You might be totally familiar with this tactic, but I’d never seen it actually utilized in a money league before — and not by a manager who actually managed the whole length of the season.

This is a mixed, standard roto, 12-team league in the Yahoo! format — with a $100 buy in. I didn’t even realize it was happening during the madness of the draft. It was when I started to scan the competition that I noticed one team drafted just four relievers, all in the last handful of rounds: David Robertson, Alexi Ogando, Randy Choate, and Duane Below. Yes, Duane Below.

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If there’s less than two weeks to go and you’re noticing you have some catching up to do in innings pitched, you best get busy. I know in two of my high-payout standard roto leagues, there are four points separated by two wins, and at least a couple points to be had in strikeouts. As much as I hate the win category, I know I’m in win-chasing mode, and to that end, I’m looking at the most favorable matchups I can find.

There are a good number of decent options on the waiver wire as you head into the weekend, but I’m going to make a few recommendations based almost exclusively off of the fact that some starters are facing lineups that have been struggling to score runs. After all, if they don’t score, you’re in darn fine shape.

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Positional flexibility is a handy thing to have when rosters aren’t particularly deep with bench space. But this time of year, I find it awfully useful to have one, if not two, players that have multi-multi position eligibility in my daily transaction leagues where I’m trying to maximize games played.

Why? For some reason, I always seem to have amnesia about this little late-season problem, but as teams start to fade into Bolivian, they tend to be more careful when little aches and pains crop up rather than risk some kind of catastrophic injury. Other players might see extra rest, just because it seems like a good idea. See Giancarlo Stanton, Dexter Fowler, Darwin Barney, Carlos Gonzalez, among others.

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Todd Frazier is seeing some pine, Trevor Plouffe is resembling a large orange-ish gourd, Adrian Beltre has a balky shoulder — there are probably a goodly number of you out there scrambling to fill games played at third base as you stagger to the finish at the hot corner. To that end, there are a pair of guys that have been stinging the ball lately that are worth vetting to see if they fit any plans for your daily transaction league needs.

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Coming into mid-September, we’re not only seeing late season call-ups but we’re also experiencing players getting shut down for the year not to mention some veterans getting extra rest. This makes it even more difficult to manage your squad in what is hopefully your final charge to the title. The fact is, you probably need an additional position player or two in daily transaction leagues just to help fill out your roster – and you’re going to have to get creative.

Similar to Dan Wade’s post yesterday about microtrends, what I’m looking for is two things in typical Roto league formats and points league formats: I want to maximize my games played and I want to utilize any advantage I can in the match-ups.

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I can’t claim “killing your babies,” although I really wish I could. And before you go marching off with a fungo bat looking for your first born, please, put the bat down. ‘Killing your babies’ is a term/phrase/philosophy I’m stealing from an editor I worked with who used it to describe something difficult in writing. That is, sometimes you just have to get rid of entire chapters of your book, despite the fact that you think they’re brilliant — because they really just don’t work anymore. I like to apply this principle to fantasy baseball.

Admit it — you fall in love with players. To see certain names on your roster just warms the cockles of your heart. Even the sub-cockles. But there’s a point at which carrying your favorite beau is actually hurting your chances at winning. And although I actually know some managers who would rather lose with players they like (because, they say, they enjoy “rooting for them” – BAH!) — I refuse to believe that the good readers here want anything other than the final prize. If a player isn’t bringing your team closer to a championship, it’s high time to get out the hatchet. Kill your babies.

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At the start of 2011, Jhoulys Chacin was actually a pretty hot commodity. While he didn’t pile up many wins in 2010, Chacin was striking out nearly 24% of batters, he had a tidy little 3.28 ERA, and even though he had an elevated walk rate, his WHIP was a respectable 1.27. In fantasy circles, he was largely seen as a bit of a risk-reward starting pitcher due to his penchant for the free pass, his high strikeout rates, and the Coors factor.

His 2011 season turned out to feature both reward and risk as his strikeouts regressed to an 18% rate, his walks remained high at 10.5%, although he maintained a decent 3.62 ERA and 1.31 WHIP. He came out of the gates smoking, with an elevated strikeout rate, only to see his K/9 fall off the table in July, all the way down to 4.13 K/9 in September.

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