The 2022 version of Bullpen Report includes five different sections, as well as the closer chart, which can be found at the bottom of the page.
We will always include a link to the full Closer Depth Chart at the bottom of the Bullpen Report each day. It’s also accessible from the RosterResource drop-down menu and from any RosterResource page. Please let us know what you think.
Notable Workloads: Primary closers or valuable members of a closer committee who have been deemed unavailable or likely unavailable for the current day due to recent workload.
Injury News
Outlier Saves: Explanation for a non-closer earning a save during the previous day.
Committee Clarity: Notes on a closer committee that clarify a pitcher’s standing in the group.
Losing A Grip: Struggling closers who could be on the hot seat.
The “RosterResource” link will take you to the corresponding team’s RosterResource depth chart, which will give you a better picture of the full bullpen and results of the previous six days (pitch count, save, hold, win, loss, blown save).
We are going to need those TPS reports turned in by COB yesterday. That’s when the All-Star break officially ends. Did you think it was time to rest? Did you think it was time to relax with a nice piece of fictional literature by the pool? Wrong. Now is the time to assess how your team is performing.
Here are three easy steps you can put into practice to keep your foot on the gas and prepare yourself for success in the second half:
The 2022 version of Bullpen Report includes five different sections, as well as the closer chart, which can be found at the bottom of the page.
We will always include a link to the full Closer Depth Chart at the bottom of the Bullpen Report each day. It’s also accessible from the RosterResource drop-down menu and from any RosterResource page. Please let us know what you think.
Notable Workloads: Primary closers or valuable members of a closer committee who have been deemed unavailable or likely unavailable for the current day due to recent workload.
Injury News
Outlier Saves: Explanation for a non-closer earning a save during the previous day.
Committee Clarity: Notes on a closer committee that clarify a pitcher’s standing in the group.
Losing A Grip: Struggling closers who could be on the hot seat.
The “RosterResource” link will take you to the corresponding team’s RosterResource depth chart, which will give you a better picture of the full bullpen and results of the previous six days (pitch count, save, hold, win, loss, blown save).
Stop me if you’ve heard this one before; Aaron Judge hits the ball hard.
On June 6th, 2022 Dylan Bundy left a changeup right over the heart of the plate for none other than current 2022 MVP candidate Aaron Judge. If you’ve never seen Aaron Judge before, he’s big. He’s not the type of guy you want to leave one over the heart of the plate for. Can you guess what happened? It was smoked. The ball was scorched 116 MPH to left field and while it doesn’t look like much of an issue for the left fielder in the video below, I can guarantee that if it were me (and probably you too) in left field, there would be more avoidance of the ball than intentionally getting in front of it.
The 2022 version of Bullpen Report includes five different sections, as well as the closer chart, which can be found at the bottom of the page.
We will always include a link to the full Closer Depth Chart at the bottom of the Bullpen Report each day. It’s also accessible from the RosterResource drop-down menu and from any RosterResource page. Please let us know what you think.
Notable Workloads: Primary closers or valuable members of a closer committee who have been deemed unavailable or likely unavailable for the current day due to recent workload.
Injury News
Outlier Saves: Explanation for a non-closer earning a save during the previous day.
Committee Clarity: Notes on a closer committee that clarify a pitcher’s standing in the group.
Losing A Grip: Struggling closers who could be on the hot seat.
The “RosterResource” link will take you to the corresponding team’s RosterResource depth chart, which will give you a better picture of the full bullpen and results of the previous six days (pitch count, save, hold, win, loss, blown save).
The 2022 version of Bullpen Report includes five different sections, as well as the closer chart, which can be found at the bottom of the page.
We will always include a link to the full Closer Depth Chart at the bottom of the Bullpen Report each day. It’s also accessible from the RosterResource drop-down menu and from any RosterResource page. Please let us know what you think.
Notable Workloads: Primary closers or valuable members of a closer committee who have been deemed unavailable or likely unavailable for the current day due to recent workload.
Injury News
Outlier Saves: Explanation for a non-closer earning a save during the previous day.
Committee Clarity: Notes on a closer committee that clarify a pitcher’s standing in the group.
Losing A Grip: Struggling closers who could be on the hot seat.
The “RosterResource” link will take you to the corresponding team’s RosterResource depth chart, which will give you a better picture of the full bullpen and results of the previous six days (pitch count, save, hold, win, loss, blown save).
It’s hard to watch a Nestor Cortes start without hearing the broadcasters mention his varied delivery. Baseball savant would agree, writing that his release points “tend() to [be]…very erratic”. I’m not writing about the effectiveness of altered arm slots or release points on a larger scale. Ben Palmer already did that over at PitcherList. I’ll instead simply write about Cortes and the outcomes he has produced with varied release points. If you want a deep dive on Cortes, look no further than Nicklaus Gaut’s fine piece early in the season.
Let’s jump right into an at-bat. Here we see Myles Straw facing Nestor Cortes on a 2-2 count:
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That’s a simple cutter with not much deception or deviation from a normal delivery. But, Cortes still has a pitch to spare and he adds in a little shake-up with this 2-2 sinker:
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Cortes comes at Myles Straw with the ol’ side sweep. Did it force Straw into a swing? Perhaps it created a little moment of inner thought from Straw like, “Ah…what’s that?..Uh..SWING!”. Or, did Straw simply see the change of slot and read the pitch as he would any other? Neither Cortes nor Straw really won this single-pitch battle and the count remained even. So, what did Cortes follow up with? Another 2-2 cutter:
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How different was the release point of that funky sinker from all the other pitches in that at-bat? Here are all the release points from that specific at-bat against Straw in the bottom of the third:
That sinker is relatively far off when compared to the other pitches Cortes has thrown. So, how about that one sinker compared to other sinkers he threw during his July 2nd start against the Guardians? Well, he only threw three in total, but they are significantly different:
Ok, “significantly different” is probably debatable. The small scale of this visualization creates a bit of deception in itself. Here are links to the other two sinkers if you’d like to make comparisons:
You will likely notice that Cortes’ sinker almost always comes from that side-arm angle. He’s not necessarily dropping down with a four-seamer to throw batters off. No, he’s using that delivery for sinkers. So, are hitters picking up on that more? Well, it may be hard to come to any conclusions given the small sample of pitches in the past two years and it depends on what metric you’re analyzing. But, from a BA/SLG/wOBA perspective, the pitch has remained difficult to put into play. Batters are coming up empty against the pitch more often, but it’s getting hit harder in 2022:
Nestor Cortes Sinker Effectiveness
Pitches
BA
SLG
wOBA
Whiff%
K%
HardHit%
2022
46
0.077
0.077
0.069
37.5
76.9
66.7
2021
62
0.000
0.000
0.033
28.6
57.1
50.0
SOURCE: Baseball Savant
It’s nice to isolate Cortes’ sinker and view its performance from a few different metrics, but doing so doesn’t allow us to see if the release point has anything to do with its effectiveness. Cortes only throws the sinker about 3% of the time. Its average velocity is the same as his four-seamer and it’s vertical/horizontal movement measurements are not going to jump off the page. Yet, the delivery of the pitch is what makes it unique. In 2022 Cortes has been throwing the sinker almost completely from that side release point. Is it intentionally being thrown to keep batters off rhythm?
If you look closely enough, you can see that there are just a few sinkers mixed in where the four-seamers usually are and vice-versa. When I first saw these images next to each other it appeared to me that Cortes has released a few sinkers with a four-seam delivery and a few four-seamers with a sinker delivery. I thought, “Wow! That’s some deception!” However, I think those orange (sinker) dots mixed into the red (four-seamer) dots are really just misclassified pitches. Here are two examples:
They sure look like four-seam fastballs to me, and since the two pitches have very similar average velocities, they’re probably difficult for a computer to differentiate. So, let’s just say they are misclassifications and that Cortes throws sinkers off to the side and four-seamers closer to his body. What now? Well, we have two somewhat similar pitches, one of them is released more over the top and the other is released more to the side and the question remains, is that variation effective? The best way I can think to measure this is to compare sinkers that were thrown directly after four-seamers and compare them to all sinkers. My thinking here is that if a batter has seen a fastball, more over the top, and then sees a sinker, more off to the side, is that better? Does that work? Let’s see:
Nestor Cortes: Test Sinkers vs. Control Sinkers
Test
Control
Pitches
18
47
Called Ball%
56%
53%
SwStr%
5%
8%
CStr%
11%
13%
CSW%
17%
26%
AVG
0.000
0.021
SOURCE: Statcast
There are many ways to measure this. Maybe you have some ideas of your own. Do share. The best I could come up with is breaking sinkers down into control and experimental groups. In this case, the control group represents all sinkers and the test group represents all sinkers that come directly after a four-seamer. The samples are too small to make any claims of statistical significance, but we can see that the control group is performing slightly better by SwStr%, CStr%, and CSW%. The test group hasn’t given up a hit yet, but what’s most interesting is that it produces more takes for balls. This is interesting in that when a batter sees that arm slot change, they may just lay off because they’re thrown off and would rather not swing. Does that mean Cortes should just try slinging a sinker into the heart of the zone because he knows hitters will be surprised and lay off? Maybe. I think in the grand scheme of things, there’s not much to wrap our fingers around here besides that.
I’ve always wondered if deception is worth the effort and this article was an attempt at measuring/testing that wonder. That’s really what it’s all about, isn’t it? Curiosity? It actually just seems that this is the way he throws his sinker. That could become an issue if hitters pick up on it, know a sinker is coming, and start mashing. But “mashing” isn’t usually a word you use in the same sentence as, “sinker”. I know that if I was ramped up for a fastball and suddenly I got the ol’ side sweep arm angle, I would hesitate on the swing. That could work to Cortes’ benefit. If that’s the case, he should throw a side sweep sinker right down the middle because he knows he’ll get a take. But, he should take caution, because if hitters pick up on that, and they will pick up on that, they could start seeing that arm angle and lick their lips. Luckily for Cortes, it’s a sinker that is hard to square up. There’s room here for further analysis, or there’s room here to simply sit back and keep an eye out for the altered delivery. $5 says the broadcasters will point it out too.
The 2022 version of Bullpen Report includes five different sections, as well as the closer chart, which can be found at the bottom of the page.
We will always include a link to the full Closer Depth Chart at the bottom of the Bullpen Report each day. It’s also accessible from the RosterResource drop-down menu and from any RosterResource page. Please let us know what you think.
Notable Workloads: Primary closers or valuable members of a closer committee who have been deemed unavailable or likely unavailable for the current day due to recent workload.
Injury News
Outlier Saves: Explanation for a non-closer earning a save during the previous day.
Committee Clarity: Notes on a closer committee that clarify a pitcher’s standing in the group.
Losing A Grip: Struggling closers who could be on the hot seat.
The “RosterResource” link will take you to the corresponding team’s RosterResource depth chart, which will give you a better picture of the full bullpen and results of the previous six days (pitch count, save, hold, win, loss, blown save).
The 2022 version of Bullpen Report includes five different sections, as well as the closer chart, which can be found at the bottom of the page.
We will always include a link to the full Closer Depth Chart at the bottom of the Bullpen Report each day. It’s also accessible from the RosterResource drop-down menu and from any RosterResource page. Please let us know what you think.
Notable Workloads: Primary closers or valuable members of a closer committee who have been deemed unavailable or likely unavailable for the current day due to recent workload.
Injury News
Outlier Saves: Explanation for a non-closer earning a save during the previous day.
Committee Clarity: Notes on a closer committee that clarify a pitcher’s standing in the group.
Losing A Grip: Struggling closers who could be on the hot seat.
The “RosterResource” link will take you to the corresponding team’s RosterResource depth chart, which will give you a better picture of the full bullpen and results of the previous six days (pitch count, save, hold, win, loss, blown save).
The 2022 version of Bullpen Report includes five different sections, as well as the closer chart, which can be found at the bottom of the page.
We will always include a link to the full Closer Depth Chart at the bottom of the Bullpen Report each day. It’s also accessible from the RosterResource drop-down menu and from any RosterResource page. Please let us know what you think.
Notable Workloads: Primary closers or valuable members of a closer committee who have been deemed unavailable or likely unavailable for the current day due to recent workload.
Injury News
Outlier Saves: Explanation for a non-closer earning a save during the previous day.
Committee Clarity: Notes on a closer committee that clarify a pitcher’s standing in the group.
Losing A Grip: Struggling closers who could be on the hot seat.
The “RosterResource” link will take you to the corresponding team’s RosterResource depth chart, which will give you a better picture of the full bullpen and results of the previous six days (pitch count, save, hold, win, loss, blown save).
