The 2023 version of Ottoneu Hot Right Now will include three different sections:

1. Current Auctions: A closer look at players being auctioned at a high rate.
2. Roster Adds: Analysis of players with high add% changes.
3. Hot Performers: Players with a high P/G or P/IP in recent weeks.

The FanGraphs Ottoneu team plans to run this feature weekly, updating fantasy managers on the biggest movers in Ottoneu leagues with an analysis of how these players could or could not help your roster.

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JOLT is model that I have developed to aid in the selection of players who are most likely to get a hit in order to build a hit streak while playing MLB Play’s “Beat the Streak”. The process is complicated and has gone through too many iterations to count, but it is now the closest it has ever been to an automated daily process. The model has very little to do with current player performance, though I bring that in after the model makes predictions to thin out the audience, and more to do with bat path and pitch plane. SwingGraphs supplies some great data that I’ve incorporated into my model and I’m using vertical approach angle in relation to swing and batted ball metrics to determine which hitter/pitcher matchups are best suited for the hitter and their particular swing.

Let’s make a few things clear. First, these predictions are experimental. I plan on sharing predictions once every other week here, though I may start pushing daily predictions to twitter, and I’ll keep track of how my predictions have actually played out. Second, MLB Play already has really good hit predictions, so I’ll include that model’s hit probability too, though I’m sure the models are very different. They also have an incredible dashboard that you could spend hours viewing. Third, if you play “Beat the Streak” and you get to a point where you are one pick away from winning $5.6 Million dollars, don’t rely solely on JOLT. Finally, these predictions can easily be applied to your fantasy baseball roster when considering sit/start decisions. Now, let’s take a look at five hitters JOLT predicts as most likely to get a hit:

Qualified starters have given up 5.2 hits per game so far this season and Nola and Giolito are currently above that mark. In addition, one of JOLT’s most important predictors is how hard the ball is hit. JOLT is unique in that it is trained on batted ball data, but then deployed on averages. This explains why, even though Aaron Nola is a great pitcher, JOLT is predicting a few hard-hitting Braves to get a hit. Add in Truist Park’s park factors, and JOLT likes the Braves today. Let’s take a look at each prediction:

Ozzie Albies (S) vs. Aaron Nola (R) Preds – JOLT: 74% BTS: 61%

You can do a serious deep dive in the community section of the site while reading about optimal swing paths by D.K. Willardson, but vertical bat angle (VBA) is the SwingGraphs data point I’m using in JOLT. The model likes Albies average April VBA against Aaron Nola’s cutter with an average vertical approach angle of -6.39. While that is the main point of JOLT as compared to other models, finding optimal VBA vs. VAA, we could also just look at Albies’ rolling hard-hit rate to see that he’s on the up and up:

He’s a switch hitter and the angle match ups seem to be good, but if you’re suspicious of this pick, I don’t blame you. Nola’s cutter has a 2023 batting average of .267 compared to pitcher’s league average of .301. But, is there something about Ozzie’s swing that matches the cutter just right?

Sean Murphy (R) vs. Aaron Nola (R) Preds – JOLT: 74% BTS: 63%

Murphy ranks 10th among qualified hitters in hard hit rate. He’s batting .275 and while he’s pulling the ball (47.6%) more than average (40.7%), he’s also smoking the ball consistently with a statcast maxEV of 113.8. Here’s a look at Murphy’s 2023 spray chart:

Let’s see what happens if Nola throws up a sinker. JOLT likes Murphy’s chances.

Matt Olson (L) vs. Aaron Nola (R) Preds – JOLT: 74% BTS: 62%

JOLT likes Olson against Nola’s four-seamer. Here’s what happened last season when Nola put one down in the zone:

It’s happened before and it could happen again. Plus, Olson has been increasing his LD% as of late:

Riley Greene (L) vs. Lucas Giolito (R) Preds – JOLT: 74% BTS: 63%

Greene has 16 hits in his last 10 games. Giolito has been giving up .3 more hits than league average (among qualified starting pitchers), and luck has been on Greene’s side (400 BABIP). While that last one is silly to bank on, it’s mostly a reflection of the fact that Greene has been putting the ball in play and doing it with hard hit balls. Plus, the White Sox bullpen has given up the 10th most hits this season, just in case the model goes out the window and it’s left up to the unpredictable.

Spencer Torkelson (L) vs. Lucas Giolito (R) Preds – JOLT: 74% BTS: 60%

Tork has one of the lowest batting averages among players on this list and he’s only hit six in his last 25 at-bats. There’s something here in Torkelson’s swing that JOLT likes against Gioltio. He’s never had a hit against the White Sox pitcher with an amazing name, but today could be the day.

Much like Hot Right Now, Cold Right Now will be a weekly Ottoneu feature, primarily written by either Chad Young or Lucas Kelly, with a focus on players who are being dropped or who maybe should be dropped in Ottoneu leagues. Hot Right Now will focus on players up for auction, players recently added, and players generally performing well. Cold Right Now will have parallel two of those three sections:

1. Roster Cuts: Analysis of players with high cut% changes.
2. Cold Performers: Players with a low P/G or P/IP in recent weeks.

There won’t be a corresponding section to Current Auctions because, well, there is nothing in cuts that correspond to current auctions.

Roster Cuts

Ian Hamilton, Add% (7 days) – 29.49%

Sad news for Hamilton on the injury front has a lot of managers dropping him from their teams. Hamilton worked his way into the crowded closer committee in New York, but may now be out for a month or more. That 12.27 K/9 and a 1.23 ERA really had managers thinking they made the waiver claim of the season. Wise managers will find another reliever with save prospects to claim, they probably won’t keep him and stash him on the IL.

John Schreiber, Leagues with a Cut (7 days) – 28.85%

I don’t know what a “right teres major strain” is but it must be the reason Schreiber is being dropped. Schreiber had an 11.12 K/9, but a 4.24 BB/9 in 17 IP this season before his injury. Many managers were likely adding him because he probably would have accumulated holds and wins. He only has one win on the season but he does have six holds and last season, he had 22 holds. The smart move would be to cut him and find another reliever who is consistently lined up for hold opportunities. Going to the Steamer Rest of Season (ROS) projections page can help you identify some of those relievers who may be worth adding.

Hayden Wesneski, Leagues with a Cut (7 days) – 22.68%

Four home runs given up in his last appearance sent him back down to AAA. This is to be expected with a young pitcher, Wesneski is only 25. In eight starts, Wesneski gave up 10 home runs and he’ll have something to work on while he’s back at Triple-A Iowa. I don’t have anything else to write because Eric Longenhagen and Tess Taruskin have already written it:

“Nothing about Wesneski’s stuff suggests his early 2023 swoon will continue; his slider’s movement is identical to 2022 and still projects as a plus pitch, the best of a repertoire that should enable him to be a stable fourth starter. Even though the early results at Wrigley have not been good, there’s no reason to come off of Wesneski’s long-term projection.”

Alek Thomas, Leagues with a Cut (7 days) – 17.63%

Headed back to AAA, Thomas will, “work on fixing [his] swing while he’s in the minors[.]” He had a rough time against lefties batting .028. Against righties, he hit .273 with five doubles, two triples, and two home runs. But he and you and his coaches probably don’t want such a talented athlete to be isolated to only batting against right-handed pitchers. Esteban Rivera recently wrote a great piece about swing adjustments that really encapsulated Thomas’ issues with big-league pitching. Keeping him or cutting him in Ottoneu leagues is very dependent on where you currently find your team in the standings.

Wade Miley, Leagues with a Cut (7 days) – 15.71%

RotoWire reported that Miley, “is likely to be sidelined 6-8 weeks” due to a lat/rib injury. It’s difficult to keep an injured 36-year-old on your fantasy team, but Miley has produced a sub-3.50 ERA in his past two seasons and currently has a 3.67 ERA. He’s been steady and reliable, but managers will have to make a tough call when it comes to using an IL spot or not.

Cold Performers

Player stat lines reflect last 14 days among players with at least 20 PA in that time frame.

Mitch Haniger:  40 PA,  .200/.200/.250, 1.18 P/G

With only 76 AB on the season as a whole, Haniger is still trying to get things going after

But, he may be starting to turn a corner as he has eight hits in the last 14 days, six singles, and two doubles. In that time period he 32.5% of the time and walked 0% of the time. That wouldn’t be so bad if he was hitting home runs in between. There is some reason to believe he could be on the cusp of a breakout. Take a look at his actuals vs. Statcast expected numbers in 2023:

AVG: .211 xAVG: .244

SLG: .329 xSLG: .418

wOBA: .240 xwOBA: .291

In addition, he’s hitting the ball hard, and if he continues to put the ball in play, he should see his stats come up. But, he’ll need to add some walks and home runs to make fantasy managers really be bought back in.

Jorge Mateo: 38 PA, .083/.105/.083, -1.09 P/G

This is a rough slump after starting the year so hot. The first month of the season shows that it wouldn’t be smart to drop Mateo. He can get hot and when he does it is absolutely electric. Right now, however, times are tough. The frustrating part about rostering Mateo is that in times like this when you make the very pertinent decision to leave him on your bench, he’ll find his way on base and steal every bag between him and home plate.

Jordan Montgomery: 10.1 IP, 0.89 P/IP

It’s odd to see Montgomery getting BABIP’d to shreds (.321) but with actuals and expected stats so closely in-line:

ERA: 4.21 xERA: 4.25

FIP: 3.82 xFIP: 3.97

Let’s compare Montgomery’s last three starts with his first six starts:

Home runs have really gotten to him in his last three starts where he gave up five total. When nearly of quarter of your fly balls go for home runs, there could be an issue. However, he’s still keeping his walks down, his BABIP is high across both time frames and he’s striking batters out. HR/9 is volatile and if Montgomery, or the wind, can find a way to keep balls in the yard, Montgomery should level out to what we expect from him as a fantasy starting pitcher.

Julio Urías: 10 IP, 1.9 P/IP

According to RotoWire News, “Urías was placed on the 15-day injured list by the Dodgers on Saturday with a left hamstring strain” and perhaps some time to re-group and rest up will help the Dodgers lefty get back on track. He’s currently sporting a 4.39 ERA and a 4.37 xERA. Urías has a home run issue in 2023. So far, he’s given up 2.28 HR/9, he’s given up 14 so far this year, and he was projected by THE BAT, the projection system that gave him the highest mark, to give up 1.46 HR/9.  There have certainly been a few changeups hung up in the zone. According to PitcherLists’ “loLoc%” which details the location of pitches low of the batter, Urías’ changeup is at 58.8% when the league is at 66.9%. The same thing is happening to his curveball or slurve, depending on which pitch identifier you’re looking at, where he is locating it low 52.5% of the time compared to the league average of 62.0%. In Ottoneu points leagues where home runs really hurt, Urías hasn’t been the pitcher most expected him to be, but he’ll come around.

The 2023 version of the Bullpen Report includes five different sections, as well as the closer chart, which can be found at the bottom of the page.

We will always include a link to the full Closer Depth Chart at the bottom of the Bullpen Report each day. It’s also accessible from the RosterResource drop-down menu and from any RosterResource page. Please let us know what you think.

1. Notable Workloads: Primary closers or valuable members of a closer committee who have been deemed unavailable or likely unavailable for the current day due to recent workload.
2. Injury News
3. Outlier Saves: Explanation for a non-closer earning a save during the previous day.
4. Committee Clarity: Notes on a closer committee that clarify a pitcher’s standing in the group.
5. Losing A Grip: Struggling closers who could be on the hot seat.

The “RosterResource” link will take you to the corresponding team’s RosterResource depth chart, which will give you a better picture of the full bullpen and results of the previous six days (pitch count, save, hold, win, loss, blown save).

Click HERE to view the full Closer Depth Chart.

Read the rest of this entry »

• Using Game-By-Game Fastball Velocity to Influence SP Sit/Start Decisions by Lucas Kelly
• MLB pitching models should incorporate recency, giving us an intriguing ranks update by Eno Sarris
• Baseball’s ‘Hot Hand’ Is Real by Rob Arthur and Greg Matthews

This article won’t take the place of my weekly RotoGraphs article and will not have much analysis. Instead, it will only provide data tables for your own analysis.

Starters

Starters only qualify to be placed in the table below if they have three appearances in the last 25 days and threw in at least the first inning in each of those appearances. The 25-day range should be wide enough to include three consecutive starts, but I may alter that time period in the future. Like in the above relievers table, I have isolated the table to starters who have displayed an average change of .60 or greater in either direction (increase vs. decrease). One final note, I do not remove pitchers who were recently injured. I think it’s advantageous to see how a pitcher’s velocity changed prior to injury. In today’s post, Drew Rasmussen is a good example.

Much like Hot Right Now, Cold Right Now will be a weekly Ottoneu feature with a focus on players who are being dropped or who maybe should be dropped in Ottoneu leagues. Hot Right Now will focus on players up for auction, players recently added, and players generally performing well. Cold Right Now will have parallel two of those three sections:

1. Roster Cuts: Analysis of players with high cut% changes.
2. Cold Performers: Players with a low P/G or P/IP in recent weeks.

There won’t be a corresponding section to Current Auctions because, well, there is nothing in cuts that correspond to current auctions.

Roster Cuts

Tyler Mahle, Leagues with a Cut (7 days) – 31.41%

Mahle’s injured elbow is going to require Tommy John surgery and it seems that many Ottonue managers are not interested in hanging on long-term. Mahle was off to a really nice start in his age-28 season but will be out of commission for the rest of the season and most of next.

Michael Brantley, Leagues with a Cut (7 days) – 17.31%

Sadly, Brantley has gone through some setbacks as a result of shoulder surgery forcing many Ottoneu managers to abandon their optimistic rostering of the 36-year-old outfielder.

Trevor Larnach, Leagues with a Cut (7 days) – 16.67%

Skip over this part if you recently dropped Larnach:

“RotoWire News: Larnach went 2-for-4 with a home run, a double, four RBI, one walk and two total runs scored in Sunday’s 16-3 win over the Cubs. (5/14/2023)”

Regardless, Larnach’s .167 vs. lefties may just have him platooning with any of the right-handed hitters on the Twins bench. In addition, Larnach really needs to improve his O-Contact%, Z-Contact%, and Contact% overall as they are all below league average. He’s striking out 34.1% of the time and that number is way too high.

José Leclerc, Leagues with a Cut (7 days) – 15.70%

It’s possible that some envisioned Leclerc fighting for a spot as a closer in Texas, but Will Smith has been holding down the position so far. Setup men Jonathan Hernández and Brock Burke stand in the way of Leclerc collecting holds and saves and Leclerc’s xERA of 4.86 is well above his actual ERA of 3.00. In addition, a .222 BABIP further suggests his 12 innings pitched have been supported by luck.

Jose Miranda, Leagues with a Cut (7 days) – 13.78%

After being sent back to AAA some managers are dropping Miranda. I don’t think it’s the right move given his young age and power potential. It’s possible that managers were too high on the youngster as his average price in Ottoneu points leagues is $6. Yes, he has been slumping but here’s a funky chart that gives some hope:

Miranda’s K% is decreased from last season, and his BB% is increased from last season, but all of his outcomes are declining. The point is, he’s showing skills improvements without the results. With Kyle Farmer the only man realistically playing 3B in Minnesota, you have to figure Miranda will be down in AAA for as long as it takes to get his bat going again. I like Miranda as a buy-low candidate at this point.

Cold Performers

Alek Thomas:  109 AB,  .202/.261/.339, 2.4 P/G

Thomas continues to hold down the center-field position in Arizona, having played 37 games at the position this season, but that low .202 batting average is being brought down by struggles against left-handed pitchers. He’s hitting .280 against righties, but only .029, one hit in 34 at-bats, against southpaws. He’s right around league average when it comes to most of his plate discipline metrics, but he’s not producing at the plate. While he is a fast player, he only has three stolen bases this season in four attempts. Thomas needs to start getting on base for his value to increase.

Myles Straw: 127 AB, .228/.313/.268, 2.88 P/G

Here’s a busy chart that should explain a lot about Straw’s season:

His quick and hot start was fueled by patience, decent hitting, and luck. His wOBA is now going up thanks to an improvement in BB% after a slump, but BABIP and batting average are not following. Straw has come back down to earth.

Alek Manoah, 2.31 P/IP

Manoah’s four-seamer is his only pitch with an above-average swinging strike rate (SwStr%). His sinker, slider, and changeup are all below average on swinging strikes compared to major-league starters, leading to a career-low 16.8% K%. He’s using his changeup and slider more than ever yet they have produced negative pVals so far this year. Manoah doesn’t have a lefty/righty problem, his numbers are distributed somewhat evenly when facing batters from either side. The scary part is that his xERA of 6.30 is way higher than his actual ERA of 4.83. He may just need to work out his pitch mix and there’s hope when you look at how his BB% is coming down and his K% is going up:

Lance Lynn, 2.40 P/IP

Let’s start with the good stuff. A .364 BABIP, a 10.96 K/9, and a near two-point difference between ERA (7.51) and xERA (5.43), all point to a rebound. Now, the bad stuff. His 8.5% walk rate is the highest it’s been since 2018 and a 2.23 HR/9 is not helping his ERA. If we had to boil it down to an obvious and unhelpful sentence, perhaps, “He’s walking too many hitters and then giving up home runs”, would work. If you look at Lynn’s average velocity charts, all of his pitches are trending down:

But if you look closely you can see a game in April where he was really low and that one outing is dragging his season average down. Statcast is now identifying a sweeper that has been thrown five times in which opponents hit 1.000 against it. If you need more to be hopeful about, Lynn’s four-seamer, cutter, sinker, and curveball all have a swinging strike rate (PitcherList) above the league average for starting pitchers proving the reason for the high K/9 that Lynn has displayed.

The 2023 version of the Bullpen Report includes five different sections, as well as the closer chart, which can be found at the bottom of the page.

We will always include a link to the full Closer Depth Chart at the bottom of the Bullpen Report each day. It’s also accessible from the RosterResource drop-down menu and from any RosterResource page. Please let us know what you think.

1. Notable Workloads: Primary closers or valuable members of a closer committee who have been deemed unavailable or likely unavailable for the current day due to recent workload.
2. Injury News
3. Outlier Saves: Explanation for a non-closer earning a save during the previous day.
4. Committee Clarity: Notes on a closer committee that clarify a pitcher’s standing in the group.
5. Losing A Grip: Struggling closers who could be on the hot seat.

The “RosterResource” link will take you to the corresponding team’s RosterResource depth chart, which will give you a better picture of the full bullpen and results of the previous six days (pitch count, save, hold, win, loss, blown save).

Click HERE to view the full Closer Depth Chart.

Read the rest of this entry »

Visualizations can give us better insight into our team’s performance, showing us aspects of the fantasy season that we hadn’t noticed of before. If you find yourself isolated to the merry-go-round of benching, starting, and looking at current auctions when it comes to in-season management, you’re likely missing something. Ottoneu has so many moving parts, so many extra subtleties that play a role in putting together a successful season. In this post, I’ll remind you of the great pre-made visualizations Ottoneu offers and I’ll give a few examples of how to effectively use them.

Viz #1: Pace and Limits

The pace visualizations may be the simplest, yet most useful. Check in on this as often as you can. If you notice that your team’s line, in this example, the yellow line, is going over the top of the blue line, you’re in trouble. There’s nothing worse than sitting in the top three in your league because you’ve boosted your pitching stats, going over the limit, and then watching helplessly as your team falls down the ranking ladder. On the other hand, don’t make your line so far below the “Max Pace” blue line that you are leaving points on the table.

Viz #2: Hitting Production Comparisons

Go to your league page and click on standings. Scroll down and you will find lots of helpful visualizations. In the (hard-to-see, I know) GIF below, keep an eye on the light-blue line representing my team and my per day points by offensive category.

It’s not always clear to me what I’m doing right and what I’m doing wrong in Ottoneu points leagues since I don’t have traditional roto scores to easily evaluate. Using visuals to see how you compare to top teams in your league can help. In the example above, I isolated the chart to only show my team and the two top teams in the league to see where I stand in relation. You can do this by simply clicking on the check boxes of teams you want to display below the x-axis. Then, I simply clicked through the stats I’m interested in analyzing. From this I can see that my team remains strong in walks and doubles, two big points accumulators, but that Im lacking in home runs. From here I can start thinking about ways of finding more power in hopes of balancing out some of my stats.

Viz #3: Pitching Production Comparisons

You can do the same exercise as above but with pitching statistics. Again, keep an eye on the blue line, my team. You’ll notice that compared to my competitors I am comparable in my daily saves and holds, but really lacking in strikeouts.

Now, if I couple this with the fact that my IP pace is well below where I should be by now, I can start thinking of adding more pitchers to my roster and getting more starts on the board.

Viz #4: Pitching Production Comparisons

Lastly, isolate the points per day visual down to the teams that are two places above and two places below you. This will help you identify how close you are to either advancing or being overtaken. In the visual below, my team is in yellow and I can see that I need roughly 10 more points per day to start advancing over my closest competitors. But, I can also see that I’m not separating myself from the teams that I’m beating by very much. It’s time to step on the gas!

Take the time to dig into these visualizations on your league standings page and you’ll get a much better sense of how your points are being gathered and what you need to do to move up the ranks.

The 2023 version of the Bullpen Report includes five different sections, as well as the closer chart, which can be found at the bottom of the page.

We will always include a link to the full Closer Depth Chart at the bottom of the Bullpen Report each day. It’s also accessible from the RosterResource drop-down menu and from any RosterResource page. Please let us know what you think.

1. Notable Workloads: Primary closers or valuable members of a closer committee who have been deemed unavailable or likely unavailable for the current day due to recent workload.
2. Injury News
3. Outlier Saves: Explanation for a non-closer earning a save during the previous day.
4. Committee Clarity: Notes on a closer committee that clarify a pitcher’s standing in the group.
5. Losing A Grip: Struggling closers who could be on the hot seat.

The “RosterResource” link will take you to the corresponding team’s RosterResource depth chart, which will give you a better picture of the full bullpen and results of the previous six days (pitch count, save, hold, win, loss, blown save).

Click HERE to view the full Closer Depth Chart.

Read the rest of this entry »

I recently joined a men’s 30+ hardball league because, apparently, I love the bitter taste of failure. I felt like a superstar when I left my local sporting goods store with a scroll of a receipt and some fresh gear that would certainly make me, at least, look like I know what I’m doing out there. In my first at-bat, I struck out swinging, missing on a changeup by a country mile. This pitcher knew what he was doing.

He saw me whiff on a heater, threw it again and again as I timed it up and fouled off a few, changed pace and sent me back to the dugout, head down and red-faced. It was hard to time up. I’m serious. Now, replace that 75 MPH heater coming from a former D3 college pitcher with a 102 MPH heater coming from a man they call “The Mountain” and I would have certainly been found in the fetal position on the right side of the batter’s box.

Professional hitters, however, are used to this kind of thing. But, even they struggle. It’s all relative I suppose. Let’s take a look at a hitter, White Sox rookie Oscar Colás, trying to time up Félix Bautista on April 16th:

Colás quickly fouled one off and got the bat on the ball. But, prior to that, he took a ball up and in. The foul ball was his second look at Bautista’s four-seamer and waiting for pitch number three, he sat at 1-1. At this point, Colás saw two fastballs and it couldn’t have hurt to see one more. He took another ball, again the four-seamer, and got ahead in the count, 2-1. Three four-seamers down, Colás must have been feeling like he had Bautista timed. But, wait, doesn’t Bautista have a devastating splitter? That’s what the scouting reports said at least. Maybe that’s coming next? Nope:

Another heater and Colas barely got a hold it, but he was given another opportunity to time it up. Now at 2-2, he was thrown yet another heater and put it in play:

So when oh when does Bautista throw his splitter? At this point in the inning, Bautista threw six straight four-seam fastballs. He had his splitter ready and waiting, but the next batter, Seby Zavala didn’t get to see one. Instead, he was thrown one four-seamer and whiffed, then another that he put in play for a base hit. That means the four-seam count now came to eight in a row and hitters were catching on.

Early this season Orioles broadcasters have continually mentioned that Bautista, who got a late start to spring training due to trouble with his knee and shoulder, just hasn’t yet found the splitter. Stuff+ has given us a new way to look at whether a pitcher has or does not have a certain pitch. Let’s take a look at Bautista’s game-by-game splitter Stuff+ prior to this April 16th outing:

He may not have fully had it in his first few appearances, but the pitch was trending up. For context, the league average Stuff+ on a splitter among all relievers in 2023 currently sits at 103. There were only two games in this early time span where Bautista was below that mark. Prior to this April 16th appearance “The Mountain” started to find his groove with back-to-back appearances above 140. Coming off of two appearances with the splitter working and he hadn’t yet thrown it to a single batter in this game in question. But, just like a brilliant closer does, he waited for the perfect time.

Lenyn Sosa came to bat with two outs, having seen his teammates time up fastballs up in the zone, ready to attack. After a first pitch called strike on a four-seamer, perhaps Sosa was lulled into thinking it was just a fastball kind of day for Bautista. Wrong. The next pitch thrown to Sosa was a totally spiked splitter. In all honesty, it was spiked so hard that Sosa may have not have even identified it as a splitter. The next one, however, was gold:

Bautista then capped off his performance with a swinging strike on an unhittable splitter:

Bringing in the rest of Bautista’s appearances this season (last night’s (5/4) data hasn’t come in yet), we can see that he reached a peak in this April 16th game and in his next appearance on the 18th, but then came back down to earth a bit. What happened on the 29th? Four splitters that looked good, but certainly don’t look 322 Stuff+ good:

Splitter 1
Splitter 2
Splitter 3
Splitter 4

Splitter #1 was a non-competitive pitch. Splitter #2 earned a swinging strike, but it was left up in the zone and seems like it could have been sent for a ride. Splitter #3 was a big miss. Splitter #4 was a really good pitch and an even better take. All together it is unclear why these four splitters read at obscure/outlier levels, but perhaps there’s something going wrong in the data. Regardless, and what does seem clear, is there’s some potential for monitoring individual, put away pitches prior to matchups for both fantasy and real-life players. There’s a lot here that needs to be worked out, mostly creating a rolling average chart, quality checking game-by-game Stuff+ measures, and monitoring game-by-game Stuff+ to see if there’s any connection, not from a performance standpoint, but from a usage standpoint. I would like to answer the question, does an individual pitch’s Stuff+ measurement in the game prior, lead to increased usage in the following? For now, Bautista seems to be finding a devastating pitch and we’ll have to see how he utilizes it going forward.