On Tuesday night the first round of the “Beltway Series” kicked off in D.C. and O’s fans showed out. It was a fun night all around. “Fired Up Guy” battled beltway traffic and came down to D.C. to give his support:

Heck, Yennier Cano even road the bullpen cart:

But the real fun was watching Dean Kremer work. Let me take you into a tense moment. It begins with no outs in the bottom of the third inning. CJ Abrams knocked a leadoff single into center field and waited patiently on first base. Next, Victor Robles reached, not first, but second on what was ruled an error by Gunnar Henderson. Take a look:

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Much like Hot Right Now, Cold Right Now will be a weekly Ottoneu feature, primarily written by either Chad Young or Lucas Kelly, with a focus on players who are being dropped or who maybe should be dropped in Ottoneu leagues. Hot Right Now will focus on players up for auction, players recently added, and players generally performing well. Cold Right Now will have parallel two of those three sections:

1. Roster Cuts: Analysis of players with high cut% changes.
2. Cold Performers: Players with a low P/G or P/IP in recent weeks.

There won’t be a corresponding section to Current Auctions because, well, there is nothing in cuts that correspond to current auctions.

Roster Cuts

Ross Stripling, Leagues with a Cut (7 days) – 28.52%

With a report that Stripling will be working out of the bullpen for the foreseeable future, he loses much of his fantasy value. In his one start of the year, he gave up four earned runs and three home runs. His pitch mix is a little all over the place as he appears to be working on a splitter and is sticking with the sinker he started throwing last year. His velocity appears to be unchanged from last year except that he is throwing his changeup significantly harder. Whatever the issue is, Stripling needs to work through it as a reliever and will need some time to get right before he becomes fantasy relevant again.

Farhan Zaidi: Sean Manaea has ‘earned’ rotation spot, Stripling to bullpen https://t.co/rmHBxByqWL

— Mercury News (@mercnews) April 14, 2023

Austin Meadows, Leagues with a Cut (7 days) – 28.2%

The left-handed DH/OF is struggling with anxiety and was placed on the 10-Day IL at the end of last week. He had a big season debut going three for four with a double but then fell into a mini-slump. Hopefully Meadows will be able to get back out on the field soon. He’s projected to slug in the .430 to .460 range, well above the 2022 MLB average of .395.

Taylor Rogers, Leagues with a Cut (7 days) – 22.44%

Rogers is expected to play a setup role to Camilo Doval (Roster Resource) and maybe some fantasy managers were hoping it would be the reverse. Rogers had a rough go to start the season in San Francisco. He’s given up an earned run in four out of his six appearances and in one of those appearances he gave up four earned runs. He also gave up a home run in each of his first two appearances. It could just be a rough start to the year and it could be the beginning of some skills decline but it’s too early to tell.

Seth Brown, Leagues with a Cut (7 days) – 20.83%

Another injury has managers cutting Brown as he is expected to be out in the four to six-week range with a Grade 2 left oblique strain. Fantasy managers know just how tricky oblique strains can be and are reacting accordingly.

Trevor May, Leagues with a Cut (7 days) – 19.55%

With an ERA creeping above 8.00, May has had one too many poor outings for fantasy managers to deal with. In one appearance against the Rays, May gave up four walks and two earned runs before recording a full inning pitched. The 33-year-old right-handed reliever has always maintained a higher-than-average K/9, but his BB% has bounced above and below league average in his career:

Click to enlarge

With both his fastball and sinker declining in velocity this season, May is an easy cut in fantasy leagues.

Cold Performers

Kolten Wong: 41 AB,  .098/.208/.098, -0.26 P/G

In Jeff Zimmerman’s latest lineup analysis, he wrote:

“Kolten Wong (vs RHP) and Sam Haggerty (vs LHP) are in a second base platoon.”

Wong has gone 0-3 against lefties and 5-48 against righties. I don’t think anyone drafted Wong for his batting average as no projection system has him over .250, but many were probably drawn to the 10+ stolen base projections and he has yet to swipe a bag. But, even with a sad batting line, his BB% is above average:

Hopefully, Wong will continue to help in the OBP department and starts to run again, but if he doesn’t I would consider him an easy cut.

Willson Contreras: 46 AB, .174/.255/.196, 1.33 P/G

In his new home in St. Louis Contreras is struggling, but he is a streaky hitter. He opened the season with a four-game hitting streak, followed that up with a two for 34, then went 2-5 in yesterday’s game. There hasn’t been much change in his swing profile, he has hit a ball 115.1 MPH, very close to his career max, and all of his x-stats are higher than his actuals:

AVG: .200 xAVG: .229

SLG: .240 xSLG: .345

wOBA: .249 xwOBA: .292

Just wait it out, Contreras will very likely be the hitter projection systems expect him to be.

Michael Kopech: 15.2 IP, -0.88 P/IP

Kopech’s game logs are scary looking. In three outings this season he has given up 11 earned runs, seven home runs, and 1o walks. He needs to, at the very least, be benched until something is figured out. Each one of his pitches, except the curveball, which he utilizes the least, has an xBA, xSLG, and xwOBA higher than the actuals. His curveball, slider, and fastball have all given up home runs this season and his fastball has lost nearly 2 inches of vertical movement (BaseballSavant, vs. AVG measurement). Is it possible that Kopech is not a starter? Whatever the case may be, he is simply not worth starting in any fantasy format.

Tyler Anderson: 14.2 IP, -0.64 P/IP

Are people already saying, “Told ya so”, about Anderson coming back down to reality from his excellent 2022 season? I hope not. In his first outing, he only gave up four hits but tacked on two walks. He seems to be struggling with his command to open up the season as his BB% is higher than it’s ever been and his K% is lower than it’s ever been:

He’s not getting hit harder, his velocity isn’t down enough to raise any red flags and his BABIP is currently .318. I predict a rebound after a few more outings. How about his stuff? Here’s a comparison between this season and last season:

I’m not exactly sure if 14.2 innings are enough to get a good Stuff+ metric (I still have some learning to do in that department) but if it is enough to explain how Anderson’s pitches are performing, they are unchanged from last season as of now.

The 2023 version of the Bullpen Report includes five different sections, as well as the closer chart, which can be found at the bottom of the page.

We will always include a link to the full Closer Depth Chart at the bottom of the Bullpen Report each day. It’s also accessible from the RosterResource drop-down menu and from any RosterResource page. Please let us know what you think.

1. Notable Workloads: Primary closers or valuable members of a closer committee who have been deemed unavailable or likely unavailable for the current day due to recent workload.
2. Injury News
3. Outlier Saves: Explanation for a non-closer earning a save during the previous day.
4. Committee Clarity: Notes on a closer committee that clarify a pitcher’s standing in the group.
5. Losing A Grip: Struggling closers who could be on the hot seat.

The “RosterResource” link will take you to the corresponding team’s RosterResource depth chart, which will give you a better picture of the full bullpen and results of the previous six days (pitch count, save, hold, win, loss, blown save).

Click HERE to view the full Closer Depth Chart.

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Here are four players who were projected by Steamer to steal at least 15 bags and are outperforming their wOBA projection:

Now, before you get all “snarky-comment” on me, Badoo and Thompson each only have 15 PAs and will be omitted from this analysis due to such a small sample. Only Myles Straw (46 PA) is a qualified batter, but Mateo (33 PA) is close. Yes, it’s early but just try to go into this with an open mind. For if you drafted, Myles Straw for example, you are probably pretty proud of yourself, sitting upon your thrown enjoying the grapes that are being hand fed to you while also being fanned to cool off from such a hot start. But, what can we expect from these surprises moving forward? If these are real gains, then we should expect even more stolen bases.

Myles Straw, CLE: BABIP is way up, but so is his BB%

Just look at the differences in his projected and actual batting average and wOBA. Over time, Straw will get closer and closer to that projected number. The real question is not, “Will this last?”, as much as it is, “Will he end up north or south of his projected numbers?” So far this year, he’s had a number of ground ball singles to the pull side. Here’s an example:

Straw is obviously very, very fast. But if Volpe is playing a little closer in and the third baseman doesn’t make an attempt on the ball, maybe it’s an out. It’s hard to say just how difficult of a play that was to make, but it doesn’t seem difficult to predict it doesn’t happen over and over again. It’s part of the reason Straw’s BABIP sits at .414 (current 2023 MLB average: .300). It’s completely unsustainable. Here’s a look at his spray chart and you can see a few ground ball singles to the pull side helping to inflate his BABIP:

Click to enlarge

Straw is destined to regress, but how far will he regress? In order to answer that, we have to see if there has been any significant change in his approach that might suggest he has made a change. Let’s look at his O-Swing% to see if maybe he’s better at identifying bad pitches:

No change there. How about his approach in different counts?

There’s some suggestion here that he has improved in 3-0 and 1-1 counts, but the sample is simply too small to make much of a conclusion from. But, if you look at his BB% towards the end of last season, he was trending in the right direction and appears to have picked up right where he left off. He’s done that before, just look at what he did in the second half of the 2021 season when he reached a peak 22.7% walk rate!

The early returns on Straw have been terrific and if you are rostering him, put him in your lineup until the well runs dry. He is an excellent base-stealer with a career 88% stolen base success rate. For context, Trea Turner has a career 85% stolen base success rate, though Turner has attempted significantly more 2B robberies. Only time will tell if his OBP (.449 2023, .326 Career) gains in the form of BABIP, wOBA, and BB% are more luck than skill.

—

Jorge Mateo, BAL: wOBA is up and plate-discipline trending in the right direction.

I went to my first Grapefruit League game this spring and was impressed with how good Mateo’s batted balls were looking. He just kept smashing the ball, but right at a defender. He’s always had issues with plate discipline but at the end of last season, he started to bring his rolling averages down on swings and swings outside of the zone:

If he can work on his approach, specifically when he’s behind in the count, he could see OBP gains that would directly impact his stolen base accumulation. He is at his best when he’s ahead in the count, like in 3-1 and 2-1 counts, but he could be even better when ahead in the count. There’s no reason he shouldn’t be at or above league average in 3-0 counts. There is no reason, at all, that Mateo should be given the green light in 3-0 counts. Even if he takes and gets to a 3-1 count, he will be at his very best. So far this season, Mateo has faced four separate 3-0 counts and has taken a called strike on the next pitch in each plate appearance. That’s good. Those four plate appearances ended with a walk, a pop out, a strike out, and a hit by a pitch.

While Mateo’s plate discipline metrics are trending in the right direction, he is outperforming his expected stats, which is the opposite of what I observed in Sarasota:

AVG:.286 xAVG:.231
–
SLG:.500 xSLG:.426
–
wOBA:.383 xwOBA.324

Even still, his .324 xwOBA is just below the current league average (.328) and that’s a step in the right direction as his career-best came in 2021 when he put up a .287 xwOBA. He’s barreled the ball twice already, but that doesn’t come close to league leaders Matt Chapman and Bryan Reynolds, who each have 12 on the year. Let’s take a look at Mateo’s barreled balls:

–

Barreling balls for home runs is good fun, Mateo just needs to do it more consistently. At the end of last season, he was putting the ball on the ground less often and hitting it harder more often, and while those trends seemed like they might continue in 2023, he’ll need to increase his launch angle more consistently to make an offensive impact:

One thing is clear, base-stealers are stealing bases at rates that suggest the projections could be way off the mark by the end of the season. Now is the time to find base-stealers who have made some kind of approach or skills change that get’s them on base more often. Each one of Straw, Mateo, Badoo and Thompson should be added if they are available. If the sample size gets larger and the gains smaller, you can always drop them.

*Stats in the opening table were created on Wednesday, April 12th.

Much like Hot Right Now, Cold Right Now will be a weekly Ottoneu feature, primarily written by either Chad Young or Lucas Kelly, with a focus on players who are being dropped or who maybe should be dropped in Ottoneu leagues. Hot Right Now will focus on players up for auction, players recently added, and players generally performing well. Cold Right Now will have parallel two of those three sections:

1. Roster Cuts: Analysis of players with high cut% changes.
2. Cold Performers: Players with a low P/G or P/IP in recent weeks.

There won’t be a corresponding section to Current Auctions because, well, there is nothing in cuts that correspond to current auctions.

Roster Adds

Darick Hall, Leagues with a Cut (7 days) – 33.97%

RotoWire estimates a return to action by mid-July after Hall goes through surgery to repair a torn ligament in his thumb. It’s a shame since Hall was going to get a chance to be the everyday first baseman for the Phillies after Rhys Hoskins‘ knee injury vacated the spot. Now, the Phillies have shifted things around the infield placing Alec Bohm at first and sliding Edmundo Sosa over to the 3B position. That leaves Kody Clemens and Josh Harrison as the IF/OF utility options to fill in positions when needed, with Harrison likely filling a platoon spot against righties. In any case, managers who rostered Hoskins, then Hall, and are now looking for replacements may have to split the playing time between a few players and may need to find players with sneaky 1B eligibility. Here are a few to consider:

Carlos Santana, PIT – 1B, Roster 5.77%

Harold Castro, COL – 1B/2B/SS/3B, Roster 2.24%

Garrett Cooper, MIA – 1B, Roster 23.08%

J.D. Davis, SFG – 1B/3B, Roster 38.78%

–

Aaron Ashby, Leagues with a Cut (7 days) – 47.12%

The young lefty just couldn’t get his shoulder right in Spring Training after seemingly giving it every attempt. It was announced last week that Ashby will likely miss the full 2023 season and Ottoneu managers unwilling to keep him in the IL spot for the whole year have made cuts. For those in re-build mode this season, Ashby may be a nice hold target but don’t expect that it will be a quick turnaround. Shoulder injuries can be so tricky to get right. Ashby is now rostered in 55.45%, so the majority has chosen to keep him on the roster.

Ken Waldichuk, Leagues with a Cut (7 days) – 27.56%

Two stinkers and managers are done:

In points leagues, those home runs did serious points damage and in roto-leagues, the hit to ratio stats must be painful. Waldichuk put the ball in the zone too often across his two starts (46.7% vs. MLB 2022 SP Average, 41.6%) and he relied on his fastball too much throwing it 58.1% of the time. While many managers must be hurt deeply by these two starts, I don’t know if it’s fair to make a cut after two bad starts. Waldichuk is the second listed prospect on THE BOARD for Oakland and 85th overall in the league. There’s still a lot of talent and potential and he’s worth stashing and sitting.

Jared Shuster, Leagues with a Cut (7 days) – 23.08%

Similar to Waldichuk, Shuster is being dropped after a rough couple of starts:

While you could chalk it up to BABIP bad luck, the walks and lack of strikeouts are an issue. Shuster was optioned to AAA and will work on a few things in the minors, but should be back up eventually this season. He was a first-round pick for the Braves in 2020 and was the number-one ranked prospect in the organization as of last year. He’s a pitcher to stash for sure.

Cold Performers

Javier Báez, 33 AB, 2 BB, 4 H, -0.51 P/G

Baez’s K% is down from his career average and his BB% is up from his career average and his BABIP is at a career-low .154. I realize it’s too soon to be making comparisons between the 2023 season and a player’s career, but it is something to note. He’s already hit a ball over 100 MPH but he’s been putting the ball on the ground (GB%) 65.1% of the time. Before you get all “change of approach and bad luck!?” on me, note that his O-Swing% currently sits at 50.6%, which would indicate business as usual. I think what we are seeing here is simply a small sample of Javier Baez and while he will get the bat going eventually, he’s starting the year out cold. He’ll likely hit 20 home runs with a batting average below .250 and this is just a snapshot of that season.

Josh Bell, 35 AB, 8 BB, 3 H, 0.33 P/G

Bell is taking his walks (18.2%), but he’s also striking out a lot (27.3%). Bell has been swinging outside of the zone more often and making contact outside of the zone less often compared to his career numbers. Similar to Baez, he’s already smoked a ball at 108.5 MPH but his average launch angle thus far in 2023 is a sad -6.2. His career average launch angle is 8.4. One thing to note is that Bell has seen a relatively high percentage of breaking and offspeed pitches so far this season at 47.5%. It could be pressing, it could be cold weather and it could be a small sample, but Bell is slumpi–, ok don’t call it a slump. Bell is struggling to get his bat going to start the year.

Carlos Correa, 33 AB, 3 BB, 6 H, 1.93 P/G

With such a small sample of at-bats, it’s difficult to not sound like a broken record when analyzing slow starters. But, Correa already has a ball hit 112.0 MPH, his average launch angle is 24.3 degrees, he is hitting the ball hard 39.1% of the time and his xBA, xSLG, xwOBA are all higher than his actuals. His Z-Swing% and Z-Contact% are lower than his average and he’s taking called strikes at a higher rate than usual at 22.1% (18.4% career). Perhaps he is working on a more patient approach to start out the year as he works to get back into the rhythm of game action after a strange and roller-coaster offseason. All peripherals point to Correa righting the ship.

The 2023 version of the Bullpen Report includes five different sections, as well as the closer chart, which can be found at the bottom of the page.

We will always include a link to the full Closer Depth Chart at the bottom of the Bullpen Report each day. It’s also accessible from the RosterResource drop-down menu and from any RosterResource page. Please let us know what you think.

1. Notable Workloads: Primary closers or valuable members of a closer committee who have been deemed unavailable or likely unavailable for the current day due to recent workload.
2. Injury News
3. Outlier Saves: Explanation for a non-closer earning a save during the previous day.
4. Committee Clarity: Notes on a closer committee that clarify a pitcher’s standing in the group.
5. Losing A Grip: Struggling closers who could be on the hot seat.

The “RosterResource” link will take you to the corresponding team’s RosterResource depth chart, which will give you a better picture of the full bullpen and results of the previous six days (pitch count, save, hold, win, loss, blown save).

Click HERE to view the full Closer Depth Chart.

Read the rest of this entry »

The 2023 version of Ottoneu Hot Right Now will include three different sections:

1. Current Auctions: A closer look at players being auctioned at a high rate.
2. Roster Adds: Analysis of players with high add% changes.
3. Hot Performers: Players with a high P/G or P/IP in recent weeks.

The FanGraphs Ottoneu team plans to run this feature weekly, updating fantasy managers on the biggest movers in Ottoneu leagues with an analysis of how these players could or could not help your roster.

Read the rest of this entry »

Here’s a list of relief pitchers, provided by Roster Resource, who could potentially earn saves and fill the closer role for the White Sox in 2023:

Reynaldo López
Kendall Graveman
Aaron Bummer
Joe Kelly
Jake Diekman

Which did you take for your fantasy team? López and Graveman are the relievers on this list who currently have the black border around their names that signifies shared closer duties on the Bullpen Report (now streaming). Those who chose Reynaldo López were victory-dancing all around the living room on opening day as the 29-year-old Southside reliever recorded his first career save. It wasn’t a dominant performance by any stretch as the big righty gave up a monster home run, but to be fair, it was a Yordan Alvarez home run:

At the end of last season, I wrote about López’s incredibly low FIP and argued that it was unsustainably low due to an unrealistic HR/FB rate. His 2022 HR/9 in 63.1 innings of relief was 0.1, he only gave up one homerun all season. In his first appearance as a reliever in 2023, López made me seem like a smart guy. So that’s it, right? López is the same reliever he was last year, except now he’ll be eaten up by the regression monster. Not so fast. Check out his increased velocity so far in 2023:

That much of a velocity increase really stands out and it comes on top of the increased velocity he displayed last year as he transitioned more into a full-time reliever. López has always been a hard thrower relying on his fastball and while he throws a curveball and a changeup, it’s the changeup that has been his best secondary offering. He has never really leaned on the pitch too heavily, throwing it 3.7% of the time in 2022, but the pitch earned a 15.2% swinging-strike rate (PitcherList) last season. That’s better than the league average swinging-strike rate on changeups among relievers, 13.9%. Even it has seen increased velocity so far in 2023:

The last time I wrote about López I noted the increased velocity on each of these pitches and how that led to increased whiff rates. Now, López has added even more velocity and a big question is, can he continue to add velocity without sacrificing control? His strikeout rates have been on the rise and so has his command (K/BB), but how will the added velo and increased appearances in high-leverage situations affect his ability to command the strike zone?

He was put to an early test on Sunday (4/2) afternoon when he entered the bottom of the ninth with a five-run lead and things got shaky. After walking the lead-off man, César Salazar, López threw a wild one that let him take second:

After another walk to Jeremy Peña, López got Alex Bregman swinging on a 100 mph fastball:

Even though López got out number two on a Kyle Tucker fly ball, he gave up two rbi singles thereafter, balked a runner over to the third base, and made his manager bite his nails. Things finally came to a close with another fly ball, this time without leaving the infield. So, while increased velocity is great, López’s command doesn’t look locked in just yet and he has a history of high walk rates. In 2020, his BB% crept up to 12.4% in his 26.1 innings as a starter. The 2022 league average BB% among starters was 7.5%. That seems to always be the “Strange Case of Dr Jekyll and Mr Hyde” for López; good, hard stuff, but touchy control. But, Reynaldo López is no longer a starter. Now, he has the freedom to focus his efforts on short, high-leverage stints, letting his velocity and stuff challenge hitters. For those of you who have fully converted to the ways of Stuff+, here are López’s early 2023 numbers:

stf+ FA – 148
stf+ SL – 133
stf+ CH – 108

While I don’t really know what those numbers mean after two full innings, they are all pretty high. I assume that’s good. As with all things, we’ll just have to wait and see what happens. I’m rooting for López and if he’s available in any of my leagues, I’m adding him. White Sox manager Pedro Grifol has been impressed with Reynaldo López calling him a “special talent”, but he hasn’t named any reliever as the team’s closer in Liam Hendrik’s absence and that will likely be the case all season. Reynaldo López’s potential has always been there and if fantasy managers have the roster spot available and can keep close tabs on him, I believe he has a lot of strikeout and save/hold/win upside for 2023.

Aaron Judge only has one home run as of this writing in the 2023 MLB season. What the heck!? Shouldn’t fantasy managers rostering Judge have at least three or four home runs by now?! Wait…wait…relax. Ok? It’s been a long offseason, but we made it. We’re here. Now you get to wake up and read real stats! If the anticipation of opening day has clouded your judgment, I’m here to provide some insight into how your category totals should line up throughout the first few months of the season. Read the rest of this entry »

The 2023 version of Ottoneu Hot Right Now will include three different sections:

1. Current Auctions: A closer look at players being auctioned at a high rate.
2. Roster Adds: Analysis of players with high add% changes.
3. Hot Performers: Players with a high P/G or P/IP in recent weeks.

The FanGraphs Ottoneu team plans to run this feature weekly, updating fantasy managers on the biggest movers in Ottoneu leagues with an analysis of how these players could or could not help your roster.

Read the rest of this entry »