Much like Hot Right Now, Cold Right Now will be a weekly Ottoneu feature with a focus on players who are being dropped or who maybe should be dropped in Ottoneu leagues. Hot Right Now will focus on players up for auction, players recently added, and players generally performing well. Cold Right Now will have parallel two of those three sections:
- Injuries: Players who are being cut because of IL stints.
- Roster Cuts: Analysis of players with high cut% changes.
- Cold Performers: Players with a low P/G or P/IP in recent weeks.
There won’t be a corresponding section to Current Auctions because, well, there is nothing in cuts that correspond to current auctions.
Roster Cuts
Peter Strzelecki, Add% (-) Change (7 days) – 12.17%
The Brewers righty was optioned to AAA at the end of June and though he had accumulated 14 holds in the 2023 season, he’ll work on a few things in the minors including his control. He walked at least one batter in his last eight appearances and while his season BB/9 (2.52) is less than the league average (3.30), he gave up home runs in addition to walks in important innings which is never a good combination. If you look at Strzelecki’s season ratios, you may not see much room for concern. It’s likely a logistical move combined with an attempt to get him right as Matt Bush was released on July 3rd and the Brewers will likely need bullpen depth again soon.
Drew Smyly, Add% (-) Change (7 days) – 10.9%
The “throw lot’s of curveballs” approach has not been working for Smyly so far this season. A lot of that has to do with the fact that he doesn’t have something to throw besides the curveball. While his cutter has been a decent pitch with a -3 Statcast run value, he throws his sinker a lot more often. It isn’t fooling anyone after seeing the curve and both pitches, the sinker and the curve, have a +3 run value. The Yankees were the team that feasted off Smyly most recently, getting him for four earned runs on two home runs. But, the Brewers tagged him for three runs in his start before that and the Phillies earned seven runs on two home runs before that. In a points league where home runs hurt badly, Smyly is an easy drop. His HR/9 is now at 1.44 and he’s not doing anything to counterbalance that mark.
Matthew Liberatore, Add% (-) Change (7 days) – 8.66%
The young Cardinals lefty was optioned to AAA last week after a handful of poor starts this season. In his last three starts, he faced 41 batters in only seven total innings. That’s 5.9 batters per inning. His ERA is at 6.75 and his xERA is 7.51. None of his pVals (Pitch Info) have a positive value in 2023 and only his sinker returned a positive value in 2022. He’ll need to work on his approach in the minors and it’s worth paying attention to. He’s only 23-years-old and probably shouldn’t be cut just yet unless his salary has jumped way up.
Ji Hwan Bae, Add% (-) Change (7 days) – 8.65%
Bae has been a monster….base stealer. That’s about it. When he went on the IL with an ankle injury, many fantasy managers probably figured the injury will hurt his ability to continue stealing bags. He’s hitting .238, has two home runs, and has an OBP of .301. He doesn’t walk enough at 7.5% to make stolen bases worth the while. If you need steals and your average/on-base percentage is leading your league, Bae is not a bad player to roster. Otherwise, he’s a drain on all your other categories or points totals.
Luis Severino, Add% (-) Change (7 days) –8.01 %
Severino put up a real stinker against the Orioles only going 2.2 innings and giving up seven earned runs. He gave up seven earned runs in his start prior as well and his ERA now sits at 7.38. His velocity jumped to 98 MPH on his fastball in his second start and fantasy managers jumped on the hopefulness that such a jump provides. But it didn’t stay there and none of his pitches have performed well this season. Not one of his pVals (Pitch Info) has a positive value. If I were rostering Severino, I’m not sure I would be dropping but I would be benching. His salary obviously plays a big role in Ottonue formats, but he may be worth holding onto for another start or two to see if he can turn things around.
Cold Performers
To measure cold performers this week, I’m looking for players with low P/G or P/IP in the last 14 days.
Salvador Perez, 0.2 P/G:
Batting .143 in the second half of June with only one home run has brought Perez’s value way down. He’s not doing much better in July as he’s only hitting .167. His swinging-strike rate and O-Swing% are both up compared to his 2022 totals, but not by much. It’s something to keep an eye on, but it’s likely a rough patch from the Royals catcher. There isn’t much in his batted ball profile that is out of the ordinary and Statcast expected stats (xAVG/xSLG/xwOBA) are all higher than his actuals. His rolling wOBA chart would tell you that this is a low point and regression should be coming soon.
Keibert Ruiz, 2.5 P/G:
Look at these Statcast expected versus actuals:
AVG: .226 xAVG: .278
SLG: .360 xSLG: .456
wOBA: .281 xwOBA: .339
Things are going to turn around for the young Nationals catcher. In addition to these bad luck indicators, his BABIP is down to .223.
Cristian Javier, -3.7 P/IP:
Javier has a home run problem. He’s given up two home runs in each of his last starts and went through a stretch where he gave up nine home runs in nine starts. It’s possible that he should just stop throwing either his curveball or changeup. Maybe that’s too aggressive, but his changeup has a -1.8 Pitch Info pVal and his curveball has a -2.1 pVal. However, his four-seamer (4.0) and his slider (2.3) have been performing decently well. He has 82 strikeouts so far this season but was projected to be above 200 by season’s end by most projection systems. Hopefully, the All-Star break will be a time for Javier to figure some things out.
Taj Bradley, -2.98 P/IP:
The 22-year-old righty has given up seven home runs in his last four starts. It’s hard to tell what the Rays will do whether it be a send-back down to the minors or a “let him figure it out” approach. If you have him rostered, don’t drop him. He has a ton of talent and he just needs to work through a few things. His cutter is getting beat up but his four-seamer and curveball have both performed well.
