You had a decision to make recently, didn’t you? You had two starting outfielders in good matchups and you just didn’t know who to choose to start the game. It’s ok. It’s ok. It’s part of the fun. Those micro analyses that bring together all of your understandings of the game of baseball are a lot of fun. At this point in the season, maybe you’re on auto-pilot and you just choose the player who has the highest roster rate in your format because, well heck, everyone else is starting him.

Maybe you’re on the opposite end of the spectrum and you pay too much attention, focusing on minute details such as park factors, hitter/pitcher historical matchups, xwOBA, and more. Whichever style you have held recently, it’s likely that you make good and bad decisions. It’s part of the game. For all the predicting and analyzing we do, baseball is, fairly unpredictable. Let’s go through a few case studies so we can all get some practice. I’ll take two players who appeared at the same position (or position eligibility) and you decide which you would start. Then, we’ll go back and see what actually happened. Let’s get started.

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The 2023 version of Ottoneu Hot Right Now will include three different sections:

1. Current Auctions: A closer look at players being auctioned at a high rate.
2. Roster Adds: Analysis of players with high add% changes.
3. Hot Performers: Players with a high P/G or P/IP in recent weeks.

The FanGraphs Ottoneu team plans to run this feature weekly, updating fantasy managers on the biggest movers in Ottoneu leagues with an analysis of how these players could or could not help your roster.

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The 2023 version of the Bullpen Report includes five different sections, as well as the closer chart, which can be found at the bottom of the page.

We will always include a link to the full Closer Depth Chart at the bottom of the Bullpen Report each day. It’s also accessible from the RosterResource drop-down menu and from any RosterResource page. Please let us know what you think.

1. Notable Workloads: Primary closers or valuable members of a closer committee who have been deemed unavailable or likely unavailable for the current day due to recent workload.
2. Injury News
3. Outlier Saves: Explanation for a non-closer earning a save during the previous day.
4. Committee Clarity: Notes on a closer committee that clarify a pitcher’s standing in the group.
5. Losing A Grip: Struggling closers who could be on the hot seat.

The “RosterResource” link will take you to the corresponding team’s RosterResource depth chart, which will give you a better picture of the full bullpen and results of the previous six days (pitch count, save, hold, win, loss, blown save).

Click HERE to view the full Closer Depth Chart.

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This season, Blake Snell has the highest walk rate among qualified starters at 13.4%. The league average mark among starters is 7.9%. Yet, Snell has a very solid 2.61 ERA (3.89 xERA) and is allowing only a .197 batting average against his opponents this season. His 1.27 WHIP is actually below the league average (1.31) because of how well he is limiting hits. This is not a new thing for Blake Snell. He has run up his BB% to an even higher peak before:

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The 2023 version of Ottoneu Hot Right Now will include three different sections:

1. Current Auctions: A closer look at players being auctioned at a high rate.
2. Roster Adds: Analysis of players with high add% changes.
3. Hot Performers: Players with a high P/G or P/IP in recent weeks.

The FanGraphs Ottoneu team plans to run this feature weekly, updating fantasy managers on the biggest movers in Ottoneu leagues with an analysis of how these players could or could not help your roster.

Read the rest of this entry »

The 2023 version of the Bullpen Report includes five different sections, as well as the closer chart, which can be found at the bottom of the page.

We will always include a link to the full Closer Depth Chart at the bottom of the Bullpen Report each day. It’s also accessible from the RosterResource drop-down menu and from any RosterResource page. Please let us know what you think.

1. Notable Workloads: Primary closers or valuable members of a closer committee who have been deemed unavailable or likely unavailable for the current day due to recent workload.
2. Injury News
3. Outlier Saves: Explanation for a non-closer earning a save during the previous day.
4. Committee Clarity: Notes on a closer committee that clarify a pitcher’s standing in the group.
5. Losing A Grip: Struggling closers who could be on the hot seat.

The “RosterResource” link will take you to the corresponding team’s RosterResource depth chart, which will give you a better picture of the full bullpen and results of the previous six days (pitch count, save, hold, win, loss, blown save).

Click HERE to view the full Closer Depth Chart.

Read the rest of this entry »

We all knew this season would be different. New rules have changed the accumulation of statistics for some players slightly and we knew that would happen during the draft season. We didn’t know exactly what we should be doing about it. If everyone is stealing more bases, then who do you draft? Ronald Acuña Jr., that’s who.

Since the 2011 season, only nine players have finished the year with at least 50 stolen bases and only four players have finished with at least 60. Dee Strange-Gordon stole 64 bases in 2014 and 60 bases in 2017, Jonathan Villar stole 62 in 2016,  and Michael Bourn stole 61 in 2011. This season, in 2023, both Ronald Acuña Jr. (78) and Esteury Ruiz (67) are on pace (Games Played %) to join the list. If Acuña keeps pace, he’ll be only the fourth player this century to steal at least 70 bases, joining José Reyes (78 in 2007), Scott Podsednik (70 in 2004), and Jacoby Ellsbury (70 in 2009).

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The 2023 version of Ottoneu Hot Right Now will include three different sections:

1. Current Auctions: A closer look at players being auctioned at a high rate.
2. Roster Adds: Analysis of players with high add% changes.
3. Hot Performers: Players with a high P/G or P/IP in recent weeks.

The FanGraphs Ottoneu team plans to run this feature weekly, updating fantasy managers on the biggest movers in Ottoneu leagues with an analysis of how these players could or could not help your roster.

Read the rest of this entry »

The 2023 version of the Bullpen Report includes five different sections, as well as the closer chart, which can be found at the bottom of the page.

We will always include a link to the full Closer Depth Chart at the bottom of the Bullpen Report each day. It’s also accessible from the RosterResource drop-down menu and from any RosterResource page. Please let us know what you think.

1. Notable Workloads: Primary closers or valuable members of a closer committee who have been deemed unavailable or likely unavailable for the current day due to recent workload.
2. Injury News
3. Outlier Saves: Explanation for a non-closer earning a save during the previous day.
4. Committee Clarity: Notes on a closer committee that clarify a pitcher’s standing in the group.
5. Losing A Grip: Struggling closers who could be on the hot seat.

The “RosterResource” link will take you to the corresponding team’s RosterResource depth chart, which will give you a better picture of the full bullpen and results of the previous six days (pitch count, save, hold, win, loss, blown save).

Click HERE to view the full Closer Depth Chart.

Read the rest of this entry »

Hitting in a 3-2 count in the major leagues must be very difficult. Think about it. Try to remove everything besides the count. Don’t worry about the runners, or lack thereof, on base. Try not to think of how many outs there are or what inning it is in or even how many runs are on the score-board. Instead, think of just the hitter and what they are trying to do, get on base.

Every hitter likely has an approach in a 3-2 count and that approach is also likely to be molded to their skill set. Really good at reading the ball out of the pitcher’s hand? Take a close 3-2 pitch and end up standing on first base. More of a “swing for the fences” type of hitter? Get that front foot down and swing away!

Here’s a look at those two approaches and how different hitters perform in 3-2 counts:

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