My baseball career ended before High School. I didn’t like school and I didn’t want to stick around any longer than I needed to once the bell rang at the end of the day. I regret not playing. I think I could have. Naturally, I decided to give it another go as a grown man who is too old to play baseball in a Men’s 30+ league and it’s been, challenging. Playing as an adult who makes a lot of grunting noise running for a very routine fly-ball, has given me yet another perspective on this wonderful game of baseball.

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The 2023 version of Ottoneu Hot Right Now will include three different sections:

1. Current Auctions: A closer look at players being auctioned at a high rate.
2. Roster Adds: Analysis of players with high add% changes.
3. Hot Performers: Players with a high P/G or P/IP in recent weeks.

The FanGraphs Ottoneu team plans to run this feature weekly, updating fantasy managers on the biggest movers in Ottoneu leagues with an analysis of how these players could or could not help your roster.

Read the rest of this entry »

The 2023 version of the Bullpen Report includes five different sections, as well as the closer chart, which can be found at the bottom of the page.

We will always include a link to the full Closer Depth Chart at the bottom of the Bullpen Report each day. It’s also accessible from the RosterResource drop-down menu and from any RosterResource page. Please let us know what you think.

1. Notable Workloads: Primary closers or valuable members of a closer committee who have been deemed unavailable or likely unavailable for the current day due to recent workload.
2. Injury News
3. Outlier Saves: Explanation for a non-closer earning a save during the previous day.
4. Committee Clarity: Notes on a closer committee that clarify a pitcher’s standing in the group.
5. Losing A Grip: Struggling closers who could be on the hot seat.

The “RosterResource” link will take you to the corresponding team’s RosterResource depth chart, which will give you a better picture of the full bullpen and results of the previous six days (pitch count, save, hold, win, loss, blown save).

Click HERE to view the full Closer Depth Chart.

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It must be nice to be above-average at a lot of things in baseball. Hitters who find themselves above average at any one statistic should be recognized as having accomplished something spectacular. When your work colleagues are the best baseball players in the world and you are better than the average at, say, making hard contact, then that’s pretty cool. You could also be below average at striking out and that would be cool too.
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• Using Game-By-Game Fastball Velocity to Influence SP Sit/Start Decisions by Lucas Kelly
• MLB pitching models should incorporate recency, giving us an intriguing ranks update by Eno Sarris
• Baseball’s ‘Hot Hand’ Is Real by Rob Arthur and Greg Matthews

This article won’t take the place of my weekly RotoGraphs article and will not have much analysis. Instead, it will only provide data tables for your own analysis.

Quick Note: The data for this article is through games played on May 30th.

Relievers

Relievers only qualify to be placed in the table below if they have three appearances in the last 25 days. Though the time range is 25 days, the calculation only includes the three most recent appearances. In addition, I have isolated the table to relievers who have displayed an average change of .60 or greater in either direction (increase vs. decrease).

Starters

Starters only qualify to be placed in the table below if they have three appearances in the last 25 days and threw in at least the first inning in each of those appearances. The 25-day range should be wide enough to include three consecutive starts, but I may alter that time period in the future. Like in the above relievers table, I have isolated the table to starters who have displayed an average change of .60 or greater in either direction (increase vs. decrease). One final note, I do not remove pitchers who were recently injured. I think it’s advantageous to see how a pitcher’s velocity changed prior to injury. In today’s post, Julio Urías is a good example.

The 2023 version of Ottoneu Hot Right Now will include three different sections:

1. Current Auctions: A closer look at players being auctioned at a high rate.
2. Roster Adds: Analysis of players with high add% changes.
3. Hot Performers: Players with a high P/G or P/IP in recent weeks.

The FanGraphs Ottoneu team plans to run this feature weekly, updating fantasy managers on the biggest movers in Ottoneu leagues with an analysis of how these players could or could not help your roster.

Read the rest of this entry »

JOLT is model that I have developed to aid in the selection of players who are most likely to get a hit in order to build a hit streak while playing MLB Play’s “Beat the Streak”. The process is complicated and has gone through too many iterations to count, but it is now the closest it has ever been to an automated daily process. The model has very little to do with current player performance, though I bring that in after the model makes predictions to thin out the audience, and more to do with bat path and pitch plane. SwingGraphs supplies some great data that I’ve incorporated into my model and I’m using vertical approach angle in relation to swing and batted ball metrics to determine which hitter/pitcher matchups are best suited for the hitter and their particular swing.

Let’s make a few things clear. First, these predictions are experimental. I plan on sharing predictions once every other week here, though I may start pushing daily predictions to twitter, and I’ll keep track of how my predictions have actually played out. Second, MLB Play already has really good hit predictions, so I’ll include that model’s hit probability too, though I’m sure the models are very different. They also have an incredible dashboard that you could spend hours viewing. Third, if you play “Beat the Streak” and you get to a point where you are one pick away from winning $5.6 Million dollars, don’t rely solely on JOLT. Finally, these predictions can easily be applied to your fantasy baseball roster when considering sit/start decisions. Now, let’s take a look at five hitters JOLT predicts as most likely to get a hit:

Qualified starters have given up 5.2 hits per game so far this season and Nola and Giolito are currently above that mark. In addition, one of JOLT’s most important predictors is how hard the ball is hit. JOLT is unique in that it is trained on batted ball data, but then deployed on averages. This explains why, even though Aaron Nola is a great pitcher, JOLT is predicting a few hard-hitting Braves to get a hit. Add in Truist Park’s park factors, and JOLT likes the Braves today. Let’s take a look at each prediction:

Ozzie Albies (S) vs. Aaron Nola (R) Preds – JOLT: 74% BTS: 61%

You can do a serious deep dive in the community section of the site while reading about optimal swing paths by D.K. Willardson, but vertical bat angle (VBA) is the SwingGraphs data point I’m using in JOLT. The model likes Albies average April VBA against Aaron Nola’s cutter with an average vertical approach angle of -6.39. While that is the main point of JOLT as compared to other models, finding optimal VBA vs. VAA, we could also just look at Albies’ rolling hard-hit rate to see that he’s on the up and up:

He’s a switch hitter and the angle match ups seem to be good, but if you’re suspicious of this pick, I don’t blame you. Nola’s cutter has a 2023 batting average of .267 compared to pitcher’s league average of .301. But, is there something about Ozzie’s swing that matches the cutter just right?

Sean Murphy (R) vs. Aaron Nola (R) Preds – JOLT: 74% BTS: 63%

Murphy ranks 10th among qualified hitters in hard hit rate. He’s batting .275 and while he’s pulling the ball (47.6%) more than average (40.7%), he’s also smoking the ball consistently with a statcast maxEV of 113.8. Here’s a look at Murphy’s 2023 spray chart:

Let’s see what happens if Nola throws up a sinker. JOLT likes Murphy’s chances.

Matt Olson (L) vs. Aaron Nola (R) Preds – JOLT: 74% BTS: 62%

JOLT likes Olson against Nola’s four-seamer. Here’s what happened last season when Nola put one down in the zone:

It’s happened before and it could happen again. Plus, Olson has been increasing his LD% as of late:

Riley Greene (L) vs. Lucas Giolito (R) Preds – JOLT: 74% BTS: 63%

Greene has 16 hits in his last 10 games. Giolito has been giving up .3 more hits than league average (among qualified starting pitchers), and luck has been on Greene’s side (400 BABIP). While that last one is silly to bank on, it’s mostly a reflection of the fact that Greene has been putting the ball in play and doing it with hard hit balls. Plus, the White Sox bullpen has given up the 10th most hits this season, just in case the model goes out the window and it’s left up to the unpredictable.

Spencer Torkelson (L) vs. Lucas Giolito (R) Preds – JOLT: 74% BTS: 60%

Tork has one of the lowest batting averages among players on this list and he’s only hit six in his last 25 at-bats. There’s something here in Torkelson’s swing that JOLT likes against Gioltio. He’s never had a hit against the White Sox pitcher with an amazing name, but today could be the day.

Much like Hot Right Now, Cold Right Now will be a weekly Ottoneu feature, primarily written by either Chad Young or Lucas Kelly, with a focus on players who are being dropped or who maybe should be dropped in Ottoneu leagues. Hot Right Now will focus on players up for auction, players recently added, and players generally performing well. Cold Right Now will have parallel two of those three sections:

1. Roster Cuts: Analysis of players with high cut% changes.
2. Cold Performers: Players with a low P/G or P/IP in recent weeks.

There won’t be a corresponding section to Current Auctions because, well, there is nothing in cuts that correspond to current auctions.

Roster Cuts

Ian Hamilton, Add% (7 days) – 29.49%

Sad news for Hamilton on the injury front has a lot of managers dropping him from their teams. Hamilton worked his way into the crowded closer committee in New York, but may now be out for a month or more. That 12.27 K/9 and a 1.23 ERA really had managers thinking they made the waiver claim of the season. Wise managers will find another reliever with save prospects to claim, they probably won’t keep him and stash him on the IL.

John Schreiber, Leagues with a Cut (7 days) – 28.85%

I don’t know what a “right teres major strain” is but it must be the reason Schreiber is being dropped. Schreiber had an 11.12 K/9, but a 4.24 BB/9 in 17 IP this season before his injury. Many managers were likely adding him because he probably would have accumulated holds and wins. He only has one win on the season but he does have six holds and last season, he had 22 holds. The smart move would be to cut him and find another reliever who is consistently lined up for hold opportunities. Going to the Steamer Rest of Season (ROS) projections page can help you identify some of those relievers who may be worth adding.

Hayden Wesneski, Leagues with a Cut (7 days) – 22.68%

Four home runs given up in his last appearance sent him back down to AAA. This is to be expected with a young pitcher, Wesneski is only 25. In eight starts, Wesneski gave up 10 home runs and he’ll have something to work on while he’s back at Triple-A Iowa. I don’t have anything else to write because Eric Longenhagen and Tess Taruskin have already written it:

“Nothing about Wesneski’s stuff suggests his early 2023 swoon will continue; his slider’s movement is identical to 2022 and still projects as a plus pitch, the best of a repertoire that should enable him to be a stable fourth starter. Even though the early results at Wrigley have not been good, there’s no reason to come off of Wesneski’s long-term projection.”

Alek Thomas, Leagues with a Cut (7 days) – 17.63%

Headed back to AAA, Thomas will, “work on fixing [his] swing while he’s in the minors[.]” He had a rough time against lefties batting .028. Against righties, he hit .273 with five doubles, two triples, and two home runs. But he and you and his coaches probably don’t want such a talented athlete to be isolated to only batting against right-handed pitchers. Esteban Rivera recently wrote a great piece about swing adjustments that really encapsulated Thomas’ issues with big-league pitching. Keeping him or cutting him in Ottoneu leagues is very dependent on where you currently find your team in the standings.

Wade Miley, Leagues with a Cut (7 days) – 15.71%

RotoWire reported that Miley, “is likely to be sidelined 6-8 weeks” due to a lat/rib injury. It’s difficult to keep an injured 36-year-old on your fantasy team, but Miley has produced a sub-3.50 ERA in his past two seasons and currently has a 3.67 ERA. He’s been steady and reliable, but managers will have to make a tough call when it comes to using an IL spot or not.

Cold Performers

Player stat lines reflect last 14 days among players with at least 20 PA in that time frame.

Mitch Haniger:  40 PA,  .200/.200/.250, 1.18 P/G

With only 76 AB on the season as a whole, Haniger is still trying to get things going after

But, he may be starting to turn a corner as he has eight hits in the last 14 days, six singles, and two doubles. In that time period he 32.5% of the time and walked 0% of the time. That wouldn’t be so bad if he was hitting home runs in between. There is some reason to believe he could be on the cusp of a breakout. Take a look at his actuals vs. Statcast expected numbers in 2023:

AVG: .211 xAVG: .244

SLG: .329 xSLG: .418

wOBA: .240 xwOBA: .291

In addition, he’s hitting the ball hard, and if he continues to put the ball in play, he should see his stats come up. But, he’ll need to add some walks and home runs to make fantasy managers really be bought back in.

Jorge Mateo: 38 PA, .083/.105/.083, -1.09 P/G

This is a rough slump after starting the year so hot. The first month of the season shows that it wouldn’t be smart to drop Mateo. He can get hot and when he does it is absolutely electric. Right now, however, times are tough. The frustrating part about rostering Mateo is that in times like this when you make the very pertinent decision to leave him on your bench, he’ll find his way on base and steal every bag between him and home plate.

Jordan Montgomery: 10.1 IP, 0.89 P/IP

It’s odd to see Montgomery getting BABIP’d to shreds (.321) but with actuals and expected stats so closely in-line:

ERA: 4.21 xERA: 4.25

FIP: 3.82 xFIP: 3.97

Let’s compare Montgomery’s last three starts with his first six starts:

Home runs have really gotten to him in his last three starts where he gave up five total. When nearly of quarter of your fly balls go for home runs, there could be an issue. However, he’s still keeping his walks down, his BABIP is high across both time frames and he’s striking batters out. HR/9 is volatile and if Montgomery, or the wind, can find a way to keep balls in the yard, Montgomery should level out to what we expect from him as a fantasy starting pitcher.

Julio Urías: 10 IP, 1.9 P/IP

According to RotoWire News, “Urías was placed on the 15-day injured list by the Dodgers on Saturday with a left hamstring strain” and perhaps some time to re-group and rest up will help the Dodgers lefty get back on track. He’s currently sporting a 4.39 ERA and a 4.37 xERA. Urías has a home run issue in 2023. So far, he’s given up 2.28 HR/9, he’s given up 14 so far this year, and he was projected by THE BAT, the projection system that gave him the highest mark, to give up 1.46 HR/9.  There have certainly been a few changeups hung up in the zone. According to PitcherLists’ “loLoc%” which details the location of pitches low of the batter, Urías’ changeup is at 58.8% when the league is at 66.9%. The same thing is happening to his curveball or slurve, depending on which pitch identifier you’re looking at, where he is locating it low 52.5% of the time compared to the league average of 62.0%. In Ottoneu points leagues where home runs really hurt, Urías hasn’t been the pitcher most expected him to be, but he’ll come around.

The 2023 version of the Bullpen Report includes five different sections, as well as the closer chart, which can be found at the bottom of the page.

We will always include a link to the full Closer Depth Chart at the bottom of the Bullpen Report each day. It’s also accessible from the RosterResource drop-down menu and from any RosterResource page. Please let us know what you think.

1. Notable Workloads: Primary closers or valuable members of a closer committee who have been deemed unavailable or likely unavailable for the current day due to recent workload.
2. Injury News
3. Outlier Saves: Explanation for a non-closer earning a save during the previous day.
4. Committee Clarity: Notes on a closer committee that clarify a pitcher’s standing in the group.
5. Losing A Grip: Struggling closers who could be on the hot seat.

The “RosterResource” link will take you to the corresponding team’s RosterResource depth chart, which will give you a better picture of the full bullpen and results of the previous six days (pitch count, save, hold, win, loss, blown save).

Click HERE to view the full Closer Depth Chart.

Read the rest of this entry »

• Using Game-By-Game Fastball Velocity to Influence SP Sit/Start Decisions by Lucas Kelly
• MLB pitching models should incorporate recency, giving us an intriguing ranks update by Eno Sarris
• Baseball’s ‘Hot Hand’ Is Real by Rob Arthur and Greg Matthews

This article won’t take the place of my weekly RotoGraphs article and will not have much analysis. Instead, it will only provide data tables for your own analysis.

Starters

Starters only qualify to be placed in the table below if they have three appearances in the last 25 days and threw in at least the first inning in each of those appearances. The 25-day range should be wide enough to include three consecutive starts, but I may alter that time period in the future. Like in the above relievers table, I have isolated the table to starters who have displayed an average change of .60 or greater in either direction (increase vs. decrease). One final note, I do not remove pitchers who were recently injured. I think it’s advantageous to see how a pitcher’s velocity changed prior to injury. In today’s post, Drew Rasmussen is a good example.