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Ottoneu Hot Right Now: July 26th, 2023

The 2023 version of Ottoneu Hot Right Now will include three different sections:

  1. Current Auctions: A closer look at players being auctioned at a high rate.
  2. Roster Adds: Analysis of players with high add% changes.
  3. Hot Performers: Players with a high P/G or P/IP in recent weeks.

The FanGraphs Ottoneu team plans to run this feature weekly, updating fantasy managers on the biggest movers in Ottoneu leagues with an analysis of how these players could or could not help your roster.

Read the rest of this entry »


Bullpen Report: July 23, 2023

The 2023 version of the Bullpen Report includes five different sections, as well as the closer chart, which can be found at the bottom of the page.

We will always include a link to the full Closer Depth Chart at the bottom of the Bullpen Report each day. It’s also accessible from the RosterResource drop-down menu and from any RosterResource page. Please let us know what you think.

  1. Notable Workloads: Primary closers or valuable members of a closer committee who have been deemed unavailable or likely unavailable for the current day due to recent workload.
  2. Injury News
  3. Outlier Saves: Explanation for a non-closer earning a save during the previous day.
  4. Committee Clarity: Notes on a closer committee that clarify a pitcher’s standing in the group.
  5. Losing A Grip: Struggling closers who could be on the hot seat.

The “RosterResource” link will take you to the corresponding team’s RosterResource depth chart, which will give you a better picture of the full bullpen and results of the previous six days (pitch count, save, hold, win, loss, blown save).

Click HERE to view the full Closer Depth Chart.

Read the rest of this entry »


The Ability to Do Damage in a 3-2 Count

Hitting in a 3-2 count in the major leagues must be very difficult. Think about it. Try to remove everything besides the count. Don’t worry about the runners, or lack thereof, on base. Try not to think of how many outs there are or what inning it is in or even how many runs are on the score-board. Instead, think of just the hitter and what they are trying to do, get on base.

Every hitter likely has an approach in a 3-2 count and that approach is also likely to be molded to their skill set. Really good at reading the ball out of the pitcher’s hand? Take a close 3-2 pitch and end up standing on first base. More of a “swing for the fences” type of hitter? Get that front foot down and swing away!

Here’s a look at those two approaches and how different hitters perform in 3-2 counts:

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Ottoneu Cold Right Now: July 17, 2023

Much like Hot Right Now, Cold Right Now will be a weekly Ottoneu feature with a focus on players who are being dropped or who maybe should be dropped in Ottoneu leagues. Hot Right Now will focus on players up for auction, players recently added, and players generally performing well. Cold Right Now will have parallel two of those three sections:

  1. Injuries: Players who are being cut because of IL stints.
  2. Roster Cuts: Analysis of players with high cut% changes.
  3. Cold Performers: Players with a low P/G or P/IP in recent weeks.

There won’t be a corresponding section to Current Auctions because, well, there is nothing in cuts that correspond to current auctions.

Roster Cuts

Yasmani Grandal, Add% (-) Change (7 days) – 7.06%

Grandal has just never gotten back to the 2021 season that made him so valuable to roster. In 2021, he walked 23.2% of the time while striking out only 21.9% of the time. He hit 20+ home runs in 5 consecutive seasons if you don’t count the 2020 season, hitting 23 in 2o21. Then in 2022, he hit only five home runs and right now, he has six. It might appear that Grandal’s power has been rebounding some, but it’s still a long way away from his 2021 and even 2019 marks and his current hard-hit rate of 33.5% is a career low. The 34-year-old catcher is at 3.33 points per game in Ottoneu points leagues and is being cut because of it.

Grandal Power Metrics

Luis Matos, Add% (-) Change (7 days) – 6.09%

Matos is 21 years old, has only 86 MLB plate appearances, and has a .263 batting average. He is the Giants’ 2023 number-one prospect. But, he’s only slugging .342, and perhaps people were expecting him to immediately be like he was (.398/.435/.685) in 116 AAA plate appearances before being called up to the bigs? Here’s a snippet from his prospect write-up by Eric Longenhagen and Tess Taruskin:

He’s still chase-prone, but his high-end exit velos are up compared to 2022, and the beautiful, 180-degree finish Matos’ swing would show at peak has returned with greater frequency. Wielding one of the prettier righty swings in baseball, Matos is moving the barrel all over the zone and turning on up-and-in pitches with power again.

If he was dropped in your league, he should probably be picked up. Small of a sample as it is, he is striking out 12.1% of the time which is the third lowest among Rookies with at least 50 plate appearances in 2023 behind Alec Burleson at 10.7% and Masataka Yoshida at 10.9%. Matos has a bright future and should be held onto in Ottoneu leagues for the long run.

Nick Pratto, Add% (-) Change (7 days) – 6.09%

Pratto’s player page Prospect TLDR reads, “A swing and approach change unlocked huge in-game power for Pratto, who also has a good idea of the zone…”, but his power has been disappointing in 2023. He is only slugging .389 (below the .411 MLB average) with six home runs. Pratto’s biggest knock so far is his 37.5% strikeout rate but even in AAA during 374 2022 at-bats, Pratto struck out 30.5% of the time. He hits the ball hard 45.3% of the time according to Statcast and that is greater than the 39.5% league average mark. His 9.5% Barrel% is also above the league average but only by a hair. No, the issue here seems to be that Pratto is pressing, trying to get back to the hot streak he went on in early June. Match that with the fact that he’s been benched for Matt Duffy as written by Jeff Zimmerman in a recent lineup analysis, and Pratto may just need to re-focus his swing approach.

Nick Pratto Rolling O-Swing%

If it were me, I wouldn’t be dropping a 24-year-old first-round pick like Pratto in any Ottoneu format. I would remain patient.

DL Hall, Add% (-) Change (7 days) –5.13%

A back injury over the winter has kept Hall down and it was recently reported that he has “…been at the Orioles’ spring training facility in Florida for the past four weeks”. Prior to that, he made 11 starts at AAA posting a 4.57 ERA with an 11.32 K/9, but a 5.66 BB/9. That’s Hall’s biggest challenge; control. His stuff is unreal but it comes with very shaky command. In his one major league relief appearance in 2023, he struck out seven in three innings, but he walked one and gave up a home run getting tagged with two earned runs. It is also apparent that Hall is destined for a relief role if and when he gets healthy this summer. His velocity needs to get back up to his 2022 mark (96.4 MPH vFA) and he needs to dial in his control issues if he wants to get back to the bigs. The O’s could certainly use another reliever who can appear between the starters and the All-Star back end of the bullpen.

Anthony Desclafani, Add% (-) Change (7 days) – 5.13%

Desclafani is working his way back from a shoulder injury and perhaps some fantasy managers saw his rehab appearance stats and decided they were out. The 33-year-old righty threw four innings at the rookie-level Arizona Complex League and gave up a home run. He did record four strikeouts and did not give up a walk. He last appeared for the Giants on July 1st so it hasn’t been a long IL stint and he is lined up to start on Tuesday, July 18th. His 2023 ERA (4.44) is slightly different from his xERA (4.92), but he is walking fewer batters than his projections expected and he’s giving up fewer home runs than expected too. He’s begun using his slider and changeup more often while dropping his fastball and curveball usage and that’s good because the slider/changeup are his best pitches. I would keep an eye on Desclafani over his next few starts, perhaps benching him for his first start back from IL to see how he’s looking. He’s lined up to face the Reds.

Cold Performers

To measure cold performers this week, I’m looking for players with low P/G or P/IP in the last 30 days.

Tim Anderson,  0.65 P/G:

TA hit over .300 in his last four seasons (2019-2022) but he currently sits at .227. His power has been sapped:

TA Power Decline

Some might speculate TA is playing through injury, some might speculate he is in an early stage skills decline at age 30. But, he is still walking better than his career average, striking out less than his career average, and swinging outside of the zone less than his career average. What he isn’t doing is swinging in the zone as often as he usually does and he is getting punished by sliders this season with a Pitch Info pVal of -13.5 on the pitch. He had real difficulty with sliders earlier in his career and he is facing them again. But, that doesn’t isolate his troubles. TA does not have a positive pVal on any one individual pitch this season. Whatever the reason for this decline is, many are hoping it will turn around soon.

Daulton Varsho,  1.00 P/G:

Varsho has hit a wOBA season low, so he has nowhere to go but up:

Varsho Rolling Season wOBA

Varsho’s power metrics are missing the projected marks systems expected before the season began, particularly his slugging (.365) and ISO (.150). He does have 11 stolen bases on the year and that is nothing to complain about. He is still hitting the ball hard and even put up his best MaxEV mark of 112.5 MPH this season. All of his Statcast expected marks are greater than his actuals:

AVG: .215 xAVG: .232

SLG: .365 xSLG: .391

wOBA: .282 xwOBA: .303

He’ll need to improve his timing and ability to hit the fastball as it has given him some trouble this season (-9.3 PitchInfo pVal) and he’s only hitting .205 against righties (.259 against lefties). RosterResource lists him as a left-handed hitter in a projected platoon vs RHP.

Martín Pérez,  0.84 P/IP:

Pérez was skipped in his rotation start after an awful outing against the Astros where he threw 1.1 innings, gave up two walks, three home runs, and was tagged with six earned runs. He did not bounce back in his next start, only going five innings against the Guardians, walking four, giving up a home run, and getting tagged with another three earned runs.  Between last season and this season, Pérez’s per nine ratios are all trending in the wrong direction:

Martin Perez 2022-2023 Rolling K/9, BB/9, HR/9

He’s been able to somewhat stabilize the high BB/9 that started his 2023 season, but he’s still walking too many when it’s combined with a high home run rate.

Bobby Miller,  2.82 P/IP:

Miller had an incredible start to the season where he earned only two runs (no home runs) in his first four starting appearances (23 IP) but then hitters adjusted in his next four starts (21 IP) and he gave up 20 earned runs on four home runs. In his latest outing, he recovered nicely and put up five strikeouts, no home runs, and only one earned run in 4.2 innings, but left the game with an injury:

Miller is a 24-year-old right-handed pitcher with insanely good stuff and should be expected to go through these types of highs and lows in his rookie season.


Bullpen Report: July 16, 2023

The 2023 version of the Bullpen Report includes five different sections, as well as the closer chart, which can be found at the bottom of the page.

We will always include a link to the full Closer Depth Chart at the bottom of the Bullpen Report each day. It’s also accessible from the RosterResource drop-down menu and from any RosterResource page. Please let us know what you think.

  1. Notable Workloads: Primary closers or valuable members of a closer committee who have been deemed unavailable or likely unavailable for the current day due to recent workload.
  2. Injury News
  3. Outlier Saves: Explanation for a non-closer earning a save during the previous day.
  4. Committee Clarity: Notes on a closer committee that clarify a pitcher’s standing in the group.
  5. Losing A Grip: Struggling closers who could be on the hot seat.

The “RosterResource” link will take you to the corresponding team’s RosterResource depth chart, which will give you a better picture of the full bullpen and results of the previous six days (pitch count, save, hold, win, loss, blown save).

Click HERE to view the full Closer Depth Chart.

Read the rest of this entry »


Ottoneu: How To Use The Board and Your League Free Agents to ID Top Prospects

Building for the future in Ottoneu leagues is both exciting and disheartening at the same time. On one hand, you’ve admitted defeat, and you’ve decided that there is no possible way you will climb the ranks to even a respectable, third-place, finish. On the other hand, you get to shed salary, auction young exciting players, and reimagine what your team could be in a few years. So, where do you start? The most logical way is to find a ranking list of prospects and start searching on your Ottoneu players page for the top players to see if they’re available. You’ll probably find that they are not, that the best prospects have been gobbled up by your league mates. So, how do you find good, available prospects in your league without clicking and searching forever? Follow these easy steps to simplify your process.

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Ottoneu Cold Right Now: July 10, 2023

Much like Hot Right Now, Cold Right Now will be a weekly Ottoneu feature with a focus on players who are being dropped or who maybe should be dropped in Ottoneu leagues. Hot Right Now will focus on players up for auction, players recently added, and players generally performing well. Cold Right Now will have parallel two of those three sections:

  1. Injuries: Players who are being cut because of IL stints.
  2. Roster Cuts: Analysis of players with high cut% changes.
  3. Cold Performers: Players with a low P/G or P/IP in recent weeks.

There won’t be a corresponding section to Current Auctions because, well, there is nothing in cuts that correspond to current auctions.

Roster Cuts

Peter Strzelecki, Add% (-) Change (7 days) – 12.17%

The Brewers righty was optioned to AAA at the end of June and though he had accumulated 14 holds in the 2023 season, he’ll work on a few things in the minors including his control. He walked at least one batter in his last eight appearances and while his season BB/9 (2.52) is less than the league average (3.30), he gave up home runs in addition to walks in important innings which is never a good combination. If you look at Strzelecki’s season ratios, you may not see much room for concern. It’s likely a logistical move combined with an attempt to get him right as Matt Bush was released on July 3rd and the Brewers will likely need bullpen depth again soon.

Drew Smyly, Add% (-) Change (7 days) – 10.9%

The “throw lot’s of curveballs” approach has not been working for Smyly so far this season. A lot of that has to do with the fact that he doesn’t have something to throw besides the curveball. While his cutter has been a decent pitch with a -3 Statcast run value, he throws his sinker a lot more often. It isn’t fooling anyone after seeing the curve and both pitches, the sinker and the curve, have a +3 run value. The Yankees were the team that feasted off Smyly most recently, getting him for four earned runs on two home runs. But, the Brewers tagged him for three runs in his start before that and the Phillies earned seven runs on two home runs before that. In a points league where home runs hurt badly, Smyly is an easy drop. His HR/9 is now at 1.44 and he’s not doing anything to counterbalance that mark.

Matthew Liberatore, Add% (-) Change (7 days) – 8.66%

The young Cardinals lefty was optioned to AAA last week after a handful of poor starts this season. In his last three starts, he faced 41 batters in only seven total innings. That’s 5.9 batters per inning. His ERA is at 6.75 and his xERA is 7.51. None of his pVals (Pitch Info) have a positive value in 2023 and only his sinker returned a positive value in 2022. He’ll need to work on his approach in the minors and it’s worth paying attention to. He’s only 23-years-old and probably shouldn’t be cut just yet unless his salary has jumped way up.

Ji Hwan Bae, Add% (-) Change (7 days) – 8.65%

Bae has been a monster….base stealer. That’s about it. When he went on the IL with an ankle injury, many fantasy managers probably figured the injury will hurt his ability to continue stealing bags. He’s hitting .238, has two home runs, and has an OBP of .301. He doesn’t walk enough at 7.5% to make stolen bases worth the while. If you need steals and your average/on-base percentage is leading your league, Bae is not a bad player to roster. Otherwise, he’s a drain on all your other categories or points totals.

Luis Severino, Add% (-) Change (7 days) –8.01 %

Severino put up a real stinker against the Orioles only going 2.2 innings and giving up seven earned runs. He gave up seven earned runs in his start prior as well and his ERA now sits at 7.38. His velocity jumped to 98 MPH on his fastball in his second start and fantasy managers jumped on the hopefulness that such a jump provides. But it didn’t stay there and none of his pitches have performed well this season. Not one of his pVals (Pitch Info) has a positive value. If I were rostering Severino, I’m not sure I would be dropping but I would be benching. His salary obviously plays a big role in Ottonue formats, but he may be worth holding onto for another start or two to see if he can turn things around.

Cold Performers

To measure cold performers this week, I’m looking for players with low P/G or P/IP in the last 14 days.

Salvador Perez,  0.2 P/G:

Batting .143 in the second half of June with only one home run has brought Perez’s value way down. He’s not doing much better in July as he’s only hitting .167. His swinging-strike rate and O-Swing% are both up compared to his 2022 totals, but not by much. It’s something to keep an eye on, but it’s likely a rough patch from the Royals catcher. There isn’t much in his batted ball profile that is out of the ordinary and Statcast expected stats (xAVG/xSLG/xwOBA) are all higher than his actuals. His rolling wOBA chart would tell you that this is a low point and regression should be coming soon.

Salvador's wOBA

Keibert Ruiz,  2.5 P/G:

Look at these Statcast expected versus actuals:

AVG: .226 xAVG: .278

SLG: .360 xSLG: .456

wOBA: .281 xwOBA: .339

Things are going to turn around for the young Nationals catcher. In addition to these bad luck indicators, his BABIP is down to .223.

Cristian Javier,  -3.7 P/IP:

Javier has a home run problem. He’s given up two home runs in each of his last starts and went through a stretch where he gave up nine home runs in nine starts. It’s possible that he should just stop throwing either his curveball or changeup. Maybe that’s too aggressive, but his changeup has a -1.8 Pitch Info pVal and his curveball has a -2.1 pVal. However, his four-seamer (4.0) and his slider (2.3) have been performing decently well. He has 82 strikeouts so far this season but was projected to be above 200 by season’s end by most projection systems. Hopefully, the All-Star break will be a time for Javier to figure some things out.

Taj Bradley,  -2.98 P/IP:

The 22-year-old righty has given up seven home runs in his last four starts. It’s hard to tell what the Rays will do whether it be a send-back down to the minors or a “let him figure it out” approach. If you have him rostered, don’t drop him. He has a ton of talent and he just needs to work through a few things. His cutter is getting beat up but his four-seamer and curveball have both performed well.


Bullpen Report: July 9, 2023

The 2023 version of the Bullpen Report includes five different sections, as well as the closer chart, which can be found at the bottom of the page.

We will always include a link to the full Closer Depth Chart at the bottom of the Bullpen Report each day. It’s also accessible from the RosterResource drop-down menu and from any RosterResource page. Please let us know what you think.

  1. Notable Workloads: Primary closers or valuable members of a closer committee who have been deemed unavailable or likely unavailable for the current day due to recent workload.
  2. Injury News
  3. Outlier Saves: Explanation for a non-closer earning a save during the previous day.
  4. Committee Clarity: Notes on a closer committee that clarify a pitcher’s standing in the group.
  5. Losing A Grip: Struggling closers who could be on the hot seat.

The “RosterResource” link will take you to the corresponding team’s RosterResource depth chart, which will give you a better picture of the full bullpen and results of the previous six days (pitch count, save, hold, win, loss, blown save).

Click HERE to view the full Closer Depth Chart.

Read the rest of this entry »


The Game is Getting Younger, Is the Fantasy Value Following?

Big bases, a faster pace, and younger stars might be the way we summarize the 2023 season. There was a time, not so long ago when service time manipulation would hold players down in AAA for longer than they needed to be. While that is still possible, Michael Bauman reported, back in March, on the new CBA and how it incentivizes teams for calling up players to the big leagues earlier than in years past. It seems to be truly working in 2023. Read the rest of this entry »


Ottoneu Hot Right Now: July 5th, 2023

The 2023 version of Ottoneu Hot Right Now will include three different sections:

  1. Current Auctions: A closer look at players being auctioned at a high rate.
  2. Roster Adds: Analysis of players with high add% changes.
  3. Hot Performers: Players with a high P/G or P/IP in recent weeks.

The FanGraphs Ottoneu team plans to run this feature weekly, updating fantasy managers on the biggest movers in Ottoneu leagues with an analysis of how these players could or could not help your roster.

Read the rest of this entry »