One of the very best aspects of Ottoneu fantasy baseball is that you are involved all year round. As October hits, stats are no longer accumulating, points are no longer being totaled and performance measurements remain locked in the past. But arbitration begins and the business side of baseball is front and center. Would you believe that someone, somewhere, in an Ottoneu points league is rostering Ronald Acuña Jr. for only $26? It’s true. If he’s not a candidate for arbitration allocation in that league, I don’t know who is. This is a pure example of why arbitration matters. If the person rostering Acuña for only $26 doesn’t have that salary adjusted, they would go into the draft with Acuña and the additional dollars to auction another big name. Oh, the humanity!

You can find all kinds of interesting situations like the Acuña one by downloading average salary data right from your league page and in this post, I’ll take you through the details on how you can use it to generate insights and strategy specifically for your league.

Step 1: Download average salaries and make it specific to your scoring format

If you click on the “Players” tab at the top of your league page, the sub-menu has a link all the way to the right titled, “Average Salaries”. You can also click here. The drop-down menu in the top right corner of the page allows you to specify salaries based on your scoring format. Choose the option that matches your league and then click “Export as .csv”.

Step 2: Merge average salary data with your league’s roster data.

If you followed Step 1 above, then you have your “average salary data”. Now, back on the “Players” tab, simply click “FanGraphs Sortable Stats”. This will take you to a FanGraphs leaderboard. Make sure the drop-down menu reads “All Teams” so that you are being given salary information for your league-mates rosters. Lastly, merge the two data sets on “Name” and subset it to “Player Name”, “Average Salary”, “Last 10”, and “$”, which represents the actual salary the player is currently rostered for in your league. Here’s an example:

You’ll notice a few things in the table above. First, I’ve also included “Last 10” which gives an average of the most recent 10 completed auctions for that player. You’ll also notice that I calculated the difference between the player’s average salary and what they are actually rostered for. From here I can start to make some decisions. For example, I’m not worried at all about the roughly $4.00 difference between the average salary and the actual salary for Benintendi and Kelenic. If you look at Benintendi’s “Last 10” you’ll notice he’s trending down anyways. By 2024, he may be worth less than the $5.00 he’s actually being paid. Yordan Alvarez, however, needs some adjusting. He’s worth more than $34, just try and change my mind.

Step 3: Group your new data set by team to determine who has the most “surplus value”

You can eyeball this process by simply going to your league’s “Arbitration” page and looking at the comparison of “Curr Salary” versus “Proj Salary” by team. Remember that you must give each team in your league at least $1. Note that this process does not provide a true “surplus” value for each team because each team is also overpaying on players. However, you won’t know who is being cut for a number of weeks, and that probably shouldn’t factor into your allocation strategy. It’s important to take stock of who in your league seems to have all the riches. There are a few different ways to do this but I like to take a simplistic route and isolate the league to players who are rostered lower than the average salary. Then, I sum the difference (Avg Salary – Actual Salary) by team and end up with something like this:

Right away I can see that there are two teams who have a big discrepancy between what they are paying and what other teams are paying on average. That could be a difference between two or three players, or it could be that a team is rostering a handful of players for a few dollars less than average. Let’s take a look at team F to see what is going on:

Team F looks a little less scary when you see that the value difference is spread out. Again, Yordan Alvarez needs to be adjusted. But, who else on this list should I allocate arbitration dollars to? Well, that’s the fun part. It’s not necessarily as easy as just tossing dollars on Yordan and Devers. Even if at the end of arbitration, Alvarez’s salary increases to $50, I’d probably still be inclined to keep him on my roster if I were the Team F manager. If that is the case, what does that actually do? Well, it limits the amount Team F will take into next year’s draft, but it doesn’t free up Alvarez for me to draft. That’s where the real strategy comes into play and over the next few weeks, our Ottoneu team will be writing more about arbitration strategy.

Bigger bases in 2023 allowed for more stolen bases overall this year. More players reached the 20+ stolen base mark than ever before in the Statcast era. In fact, the 51 players who reached 20+ SBs in 2023, more than doubled last year’s mark of 24. The increase in stolen base output is explainable, MLB changed a rule. The flux of home runs in the past few years, however, is not as explainable, though many have tried to explain it with an analysis of the make-up of the actual baseball. But, both of those statistics are up individually and in combination.

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To qualify for this totally made-up award, a player must have earned positive value by the season’s end (2023) and show the largest difference in projected value versus end-of-season value. Simply put, I subtracted earned value from projected value, called it ‘Diff’, and sorted descending. It should be noted ahead of time that these three players were negatively valued due to very low plate appearance projections.

2022 Finalists: Jon Berti, Brendan Donovan, Brandon Drury

2023 Finalists: Josh Lowe, Jake Burger, Nolan Jones

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To qualify for this totally made-up award, a player must have earned at least $5 by the end of the season and accumulated at least $5 more than expected. This query logic allows for players who we already knew would be good but just didn’t know would be this good.

2022 Finalists: Aaron Judge, Paul Goldschmidt, and Freddie Freeman

2023 Finalists: Matt Olson, Ronald Acuña Jr., and Corbin Carroll

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The winner of the FanGraphs Staff Two Ottoneu League (1327) won by a minuscule two-tenths of a point. With 18,670.7 total points, “Roy Donk?” outlasted “Trial By Drury” by sheer force, maximizing all of his positional games played and missing his innings mark by only two. What a feat! Could it have been different had “Trial By Drury” maxed out on their OF and UTIL games played? We’ll never know.

I certainly can’t pass judgment on any team’s ability to maximize their points. My team, “The Ghost Runners” missed positional game maximums for 2B, SS, MI (by a lot!), OF, and UTIL. Oh, yeah, and I missed my IP totals too. I had a lot of injuries, played in too many leagues, dealt with cap space issues, yada, yada, yada! Yet somehow, I finished fifth. Luck? Probably. This season in our little free league, teams that reached their maximums were much more likely to finish higher in the standings, and that brings me to my first lesson of 2023…

Reach your maximums!

In FanGraphs Points Leagues that do not have playoffs, teams are allowed 1,500 innings pitched (soft-max) and 162 games per position with a higher 810 games allowed total for OF slots. This is a free league and it’s very possible that some of my league mates are playing in other, paid and possibly high-stakes, leagues. But, I should have used that to my advantage. Take a look at how teams finished, on average, when they reached their max compared to when they did not:

It’s illuminating to see how many teams did not get to their max. My MI situation was a mess all season long, but I still should have put a player, any player, there more often. I noticed it was an issue mid-season, and tried to trade away one of my extra outfielders for a middle infielder, but couldn’t find any takers. Being left with low points-per-game (P/G) targets on the waiver wire sucked the motivation right out of me and I continued to ignore the missing slot in my lineup. Shame! Lack of effort is to blame, but I also hit maximums too early last season and may have been too conservative this season because of it.

Home runs hurt your pitching, but accumulation is more important

You’ll notice in the scatter plots below that the best teams in this league hit the most home runs. Though the first-place finisher did not hit the most home runs, they finished in the top five. On the other side of things, teams that gave up fewer home runs than everyone else didn’t necessarily show tremendous gains. That’s mostly due to the fact that when you accumulate innings, you accumulate home runs given up. Those teams whose pitchers aren’t giving up home runs are likely avoiding them because they are starting pitchers less often.

Each day matters

Total all your points and divide them by all of your games started among your position players, and you have your season-long points per game (P/G). Do the same with your innings pitched (P/IP) and then add the two together. The sum of P/G and P/IP is telling of how your team did on not only a daily basis but also a decision basis. Obviously, having good players is what you’re after, but scoring points each and every day throughout the season is the name of the game:

Teams that finished in the top three spots had the highest sum of P/G and P/IP. That generally translates to good, quality players, but as we’ve seen, it also translates to accumulation. This season, teams that had a handful of everyday hitters and regular pitchers above six points per game were much better for it. Here are all pitchers and hitters placed into decile groups by P/G and P/IP:

This reflects all players regardless of games or innings pitched or whether they are a reliever or a starter. In upcoming posts, I’ll build out these decile ranks with more specificity, but for now, this will do. It gives us a clearer picture of how P/G and P/IP relate to your team as a whole. We all want decile one and two players. Heck, I’ll take decile three players any day. Those are the quality players that contribute to your daily points at a high level.

Taking stock and analyzing your league as a whole is an important step to improving. I, personally, have a long list of things that I need to do to win this league next season. Now, sadly, I have six months to think about it.

The month of June was an interesting time for the playoff-bound Orioles. When the month concluded, two of their brightest stars, Adley Rutschman and Anthony Santander, had wRC+ marks below 100 for the month. But the story of the Orioles in 2023 isn’t isolated to a few stars. In fact, it’s the opposite. The story of the Orioles 2023 regular season, is a combination of stories from rookies, to established everyday contributors, to veterans who all performed well at various points in the season. When one player was off, another one came out of nowhere to lift the team. Interact with the graph below by clicking on each player’s name to turn their data on and off and visualize the O’s wRC+ production in June:

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The 2023 version of Ottoneu Hot Right Now will include three different sections:

1. Current Auctions: A closer look at players being auctioned at a high rate.
2. Roster Adds: Analysis of players with high add% changes.
3. Hot Performers: Players with a high P/G or P/IP in recent weeks.

The FanGraphs Ottoneu team plans to run this feature weekly, updating fantasy managers on the biggest movers in Ottoneu leagues with an analysis of how these players could or could not help your roster.

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The 2023 version of the Bullpen Report includes five different sections, as well as the closer chart, which can be found at the bottom of the page.

We will always include a link to the full Closer Depth Chart at the bottom of the Bullpen Report each day. It’s also accessible from the RosterResource drop-down menu and from any RosterResource page. Please let us know what you think.

1. Notable Workloads: Primary closers or valuable members of a closer committee who have been deemed unavailable or likely unavailable for the current day due to recent workload.
2. Injury News
3. Outlier Saves: Explanation for a non-closer earning a save during the previous day.
4. Committee Clarity: Notes on a closer committee that clarify a pitcher’s standing in the group.
5. Losing A Grip: Struggling closers who could be on the hot seat.

The “RosterResource” link will take you to the corresponding team’s RosterResource depth chart, which will give you a better picture of the full bullpen and results of the previous six days (pitch count, save, hold, win, loss, blown save).

Click HERE to view the full Closer Depth Chart.

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It was in 2021 that John Means threw a no-hitter, striking out 12 batters along the way, matching his career-high single-game strikeout total. Were it not for a runner making it to first base on a dropped third strike, Means would have been the only Orioles pitcher in history to have thrown a perfect game. But, that was all back in 2021 and besides only eight innings pitched in 2022, John Means is back on the mound for the first time since April of that year. Is Means valuable this season, next season, and beyond? Let’s take a look at where he was and where he is currently in an attempt to answer that question.

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Much like Hot Right Now, Cold Right Now will be a weekly Ottoneu feature with a focus on players who are being dropped or who maybe should be dropped in Ottoneu leagues. Hot Right Now will focus on players up for auction, players recently added, and players generally performing well. Cold Right Now will have parallel two of those three sections:

1. Injuries: Players who are being cut because of IL stints.
2. Roster Cuts: Analysis of players with high cut% changes.
3. Cold Performers: Players with a low P/G or P/IP in recent weeks.

There won’t be a corresponding section to Current Auctions because, well, there is nothing in cuts that correspond to current auctions.

Roster Cuts

Parker Meadows, Add% (-) Change (7 days) – 17.63%

The 23-year-old Tigers outfielder has gone cold after a hot start. In his first 10 games, he went 10 for 34 (.294) with a home run and a stolen base. In his last 10 games, he has gone two for 26 (.077) with zero home runs, but three stolen bases. This is what we should expect from a young hitter who entered the MLB with a career (MiLB) K% in the mid-to-high 20s. I don’t think it’s a reason to drop Meadows in keeper leagues like Ottoneu unless you got all excited and paid too much for him during the hot streak.

Geraldo Perdomo, Add% (-) Change (7 days) – 8.33%

Perdomo is in a slump. He hasn’t had a hit in his last 22 at-bats and only has four walks in that time. He’s been a streaky hitter all season long, but he’s currently in his worst 15-game wOBA dip this season:

Perdomo’s plate discipline statistics are very interesting. He strikes out only 17.1% of the time, makes great in-zone contact, swings outside of the zone less often than average, and has a BABIP near .300. In September, however, his BABIP is a low .111 and his September K% (22.9%) is the highest it’s been month-by-month this season. He has dropped down into the nine spot in the batting order and his playing time is in jeopardy as Jordan Lawlar will start to get more and more time at the SS position.

Jose Siri, Add% (-) Change (7 days) – 6.41%

Sadly it appears that Siri’s 2023 fantasy campaign is over, though he may be able to return from a fractured hand injury for the playoffs. His 25 2023 home runs outperformed every projection system though his 12 stolen bases underperformed every projection system. In addition, the average and on-base percentage marks he posted in 2023 were in line with most projections, but his slugging percentage outperformed. Clearly, Siri developed some unexpected pop in 2023. He finished the regular season with a fantasy-relevant, but not award-winning, slash line of .222/.267/.494.

Lance Lynn, Add% (-) Change (7 days) –6.73%

In his last four starts, Lynn has given up 20 earned runs and nine home runs. His K/9 ratio in those starts was a dismal 2.45 and his BB/9 sat at 3.27. That’s bad. It has been a really wild season for Lynn as his command and strikeout statistics have been all over the place:

Many managers are likely dumping Lynn as they just can’t take the earned runs, especially the home runs in points leagues. However, Lynn is still accumulating wins. Since joining the Dodgers, Lynn has won five games. While his Dodger ERA stands at 4.60, his White Sox ERA stands at 6.47. He will likely get another two, maybe three, starts. One against the Tigers in LA and likely two against the Giants. The velocity on all three of his fastballs was down significantly on August 31, but in his two starts since that date, all three have risen back up to around his average. Certainly, as many have pointed out, his pitch mix has changed since being traded to the Dodgers:

The Tigers have the 28th worst wOBA in the MLB (28th against righties too) and the Giants rank 21st (jump to 20th against righties). Lynn has not been what he was projected to be before the season began in the case of WHIP and ERA, but his strikeout totals, IP, and win predictions were right on the mark:

Michael Lorenzen, Add% (-) Change (7 days) – 6.08%

Lorenzen has made five starts since his August 9th no-hitter. In that time he has a 7.96 ERA and has coughed up eight home runs. His K/9 of 4.85 in his last five starts is lower than his season average of 6.48 and his recent BB/9 of 3.81 is high compared to a 2.60 season average. His fastball velocities look stable, but his off-speed pitches have jumped in velocity in recent games. Perhaps the Phillies are tinkering with his mix and approach some, but even more problematic is the fact that the Phillies are planning to utilize Lorenzen in a relief role in their upcoming matchup with Atlanta. I’m not sure what that means for the future and if it’s a good idea to tell a team like Atlanta their plans way ahead of time, but it’s probably clear that Lorenzen won’t be much fantasy help for the rest of the season.

Cold Performers

To measure cold performers this week, I’m looking for players with low P/G or P/IP in the last 14 days.

Adam Duvall,  -2.00 P/G:

Duval is hitting .151 in his last 14 games, but he has hit three home runs and walked four times. His slugging and wOBA are dipping below average currently and time is ticking on the 2023 season.

Whit Merrifield,  -0.66 P/G:

In his last 14 games, Merrifield is batting .204 with 10 strikeouts. He has stolen two bags in that time but hasn’t hit a home run. His K% is on the rise and his wOBA is on the decline:

MacKenzie Gore,  -5.25 P/IP:

Gore was placed on the IL with blisters a little over a week ago as of this writing. He may make one last start, but that is not a guarantee as the Nationals have no reason to tack on more workload to the 24-year-old’s season. Gore threw a career-high 136.1 IP this season, increased his major-league K/9, decreased his major-league BB/9, and posted seven wins with a 4.42 ERA. While there’s no reason to hold on for this season, Gore certainly has long-term potential and shouldn’t be dropped if he’s rostered for a reasonable price.

Nathan Eovaldi,  -2.57 P/IP:

Since his return from injury, Eovaldi has not looked good. He has posted a 7.71 ERA and a 7.71 BB/9. He’s also given up three home runs. While his K/9 in that time (9.0) is better than his season 8.13, he’s given up too many walks and home runs, a terrible combination. As the Texas Rangers stagger at the end of the season, Eovaldi needs to rebound in his next start, likely on Tuesday against the Red Sox.