The 2023 version of the Bullpen Report includes five different sections, as well as the closer chart, which can be found at the bottom of the page.

We will always include a link to the full Closer Depth Chart at the bottom of the Bullpen Report each day. It’s also accessible from the RosterResource drop-down menu and from any RosterResource page. Please let us know what you think.

1. Notable Workloads: Primary closers or valuable members of a closer committee who have been deemed unavailable or likely unavailable for the current day due to recent workload.
2. Injury News
3. Outlier Saves: Explanation for a non-closer earning a save during the previous day.
4. Committee Clarity: Notes on a closer committee that clarify a pitcher’s standing in the group.
5. Losing A Grip: Struggling closers who could be on the hot seat.

The “RosterResource” link will take you to the corresponding team’s RosterResource depth chart, which will give you a better picture of the full bullpen and results of the previous six days (pitch count, save, hold, win, loss, blown save).

Click HERE to view the full Closer Depth Chart.

Read the rest of this entry »

The 2023 version of Ottoneu Hot Right Now will include three different sections:

1. Current Auctions: A closer look at players being auctioned at a high rate.
2. Roster Adds: Analysis of players with high add% changes.
3. Hot Performers: Players with a high P/G or P/IP in recent weeks.

The FanGraphs Ottoneu team plans to run this feature weekly, updating fantasy managers on the biggest movers in Ottoneu leagues with an analysis of how these players could or could not help your roster.

Read the rest of this entry »

The 2023 version of the Bullpen Report includes five different sections, as well as the closer chart, which can be found at the bottom of the page.

We will always include a link to the full Closer Depth Chart at the bottom of the Bullpen Report each day. It’s also accessible from the RosterResource drop-down menu and from any RosterResource page. Please let us know what you think.

1. Notable Workloads: Primary closers or valuable members of a closer committee who have been deemed unavailable or likely unavailable for the current day due to recent workload.
2. Injury News
3. Outlier Saves: Explanation for a non-closer earning a save during the previous day.
4. Committee Clarity: Notes on a closer committee that clarify a pitcher’s standing in the group.
5. Losing A Grip: Struggling closers who could be on the hot seat.

The “RosterResource” link will take you to the corresponding team’s RosterResource depth chart, which will give you a better picture of the full bullpen and results of the previous six days (pitch count, save, hold, win, loss, blown save).

Click HERE to view the full Closer Depth Chart.

Read the rest of this entry »

Much like Hot Right Now, Cold Right Now will be a weekly Ottoneu feature with a focus on players who are being dropped or who maybe should be dropped in Ottoneu leagues. Hot Right Now will focus on players up for auction, players recently added, and players generally performing well. Cold Right Now will have parallel two of those three sections:

1. Injuries: Players who are being cut because of IL stints.
2. Roster Cuts: Analysis of players with high cut% changes.
3. Cold Performers: Players with a low P/G or P/IP in recent weeks.

There won’t be a corresponding section to Current Auctions because, well, there is nothing in cuts that correspond to current auctions.

Roster Cuts

Jake McCarthy, Add% (-) Change (7 days) – 12.77%

McCarthy’s August batting average dipped down to .192 and even though he stole three bases in that time, he was a drain on points totals and roto standings. He was demoted to AAA on August 14th and in his five games played so far he is batting .273 with a home run, five RBI, and one stolen base. He has struck out five times as well.

McCarthy’s 2022 MLB K% was 21.5% and he has dropped his 2023 mark down to 19.2%. The league average currently sits at 22.7%, so McCarthy doesn’t necessarily have a strike-out problem. His OBP (.325) is above the league average (.320). Maybe he’s getting BABIP’d? Nope. His .305 BABIP is greater than the MLB average of .297. One of the biggest issues I can find is simply in McCarthy’s slugging (.331) which is way below the league average of .414. He isn’t hitting the ball hard and he is putting it on the ground often. McCarthy is proving to be a fairly average player in a crowded Arizona outfield who isn’t contributing much in the slugging department. Keep an eye on him in AAA while also keeping track of the current MLB Arizona outfielders (Tommy Pham, Alek Thomas, Lourdes Gurriel Jr.) and you may find an opportunity to buy low, which you would still want to do given his stolen base potential.

Paul DeJong, Add% (-) Change (7 days) – 12.46%

Traded to Toronto, then benched, then designated for assignment, then released, and now landing with the Giant, Dejong has had a busy few weeks. He has hit 13 home runs in 2023, but his batting average is a low .211, which is actually higher than the marks he posted in 2021 and 2022. Dejong will get another chance with the Giants, but their infield is crowded and I don’t see him contributing much besides possibly a bench role this season. Dejong has been the player he has always been in 2023, so no fantasy manager should be surprised.

Andrew Chafin, Add% (-) Change (7 days) –7.99%

Since being traded to the Brewers, Chafin has mostly played a middle relief role, but his move has not come with great success. His K/9 has gone down, his BB/9 has gone way up and his Brewers ERA sits at 11.81. Chafin just hasn’t had his fastball consistently this season and it has returned a -4.1 pVal (PitchInfo) in 2023, a career low. Chafin lost a tremendous amount of value when he moved away from Arizona where he could have at least recorded holds. In my opinion, he’s an easy drop in all formats.

J.D. Davis, Add% (-) Change (7 days) – 6.71%

With a 2023 first-half batting average of .277 and a career batting average of .261, many managers probably saw a second-half dip coming and it did, dropping (so far) to .167. Davis has had a solid season, but it has been more in line with all his other seasons in the past. The difference is that he has gotten much more playing time with the Giants than he did when he was with the Mets. Davis is the type of player whose xwOBA always looks good because of his ability to hit the ball hard and find the barrel. But, he’s been slumping in both departments as of late:

Notice, however, that while his slugging percentage has been trending down consistently, he has had a bump as of late in his hard-hit rate. Add to that the fact that his second-half BABIP sits at .230 and there might be reason to be hopeful about Davis moving forward. Part of the reason for this BABIP drop could be that his second-half ground ball rate has ballooned to 60%, so there are likely some swing adjustments that need to be made and should be paid close attention to.

Joey Wiemer, Add% (-) Change (7 days) – 6.07%

Among qualified hitters playing center field, Joey Wiemer has the fourth-best ultimate zone rating (UZR) and sixth-best “Def” mark. You would think that is likely to keep him in the lineup in Milwaukee, but Jeff Zimmerman recently wrote in his 8/18/23 lineup analysis that:

Joey Wiemer (vs LHP) and Tyrone Taylor (vs RHP) are in an outfield platoon.

Wiemer’s overall .213/.290/.376 slash line is not doing your fantasy team any favors. He was hyped in prospect discussion due to his ability to hit the ball very hard and while he is doing that in 2023 more than the average player, he is striking out way too much (27.4%). He is batting only .178 against righties, but he does have six home runs against them. His other seven home runs (13 total) have come against lefties. Match his 13 home runs with his 11 stolen bases and he’s still not a bad player to roster. At only 24 years old and a max EV of 112.8, I’m holding with the hope that he can improve his plate discipline (somewhat) as he matures as a major leaguer.

Cold Performers

To measure cold performers this week, I’m looking for players with low P/G or P/IP in the last 14 days.

Mickey Moniak,  -1.09 P/G:

After an incredible May, June, and July, where Moniak hit above .300 in each of those months, he has finally cooled off in August and cooled off big time. He is hitting just .138 so far in the month. Overall in 2023, Moniak hit .307 against right-handed pitching and just .114 against left-handed pitching. While he has run a very high K% all season (35.2%), it has jumped to 47.5% in August. With Mike Trout back in the lineup, Moniak is likely a bench player for now.

Austin Slater,  -0.92 P/G:

Slater has not had a hit in August in 23 plate appearances, which is wild considering he hit .366 in 43 June plate appearances. Roster Resource has Slater in a projected platoon versus LHP. His August K% has also swelled up to 43.5%. He’ll need to find his stroke again in order to be fantasy-relevant.

Tony Gonsolin,  -3.40 P/IP:

Before hitting the IL with “right forearm inflammation”, Gonsolin gave up six home runs in two starts. The Marlins got him for 10 earned runs in his most recent start and he threw only 3.1 innings. He has given up at least one home run in each of his last eight starts. The outlook on Gonsolin is not good for the rest of the season:

Dave Roberts said Tony Gonsolin is on IL with elbow injury. He was pressed on length of time Gonsolin will miss. Roberts conceded it is “Unlikely” Gonsolin will return this season. #Dodgers

— David Vassegh (@THEREAL_DV) August 19, 2023

Michael Kopech,  -4.32 P/IP:

Kopech, like Gonsolin, has had unreal home run issues in 2023 and his last two starts have not deviated from that at all. He gave up four dingers in his last two starts and a combined 13 earned runs. His season-long HR/9 is now at 2.17, which leads the league among starters with at least 100 IP. With that same IP threshold going back to 2010, Kopech’s HR/9 ranks 8th place among starters. If you’ve been rostering Kopech this whole time, then I just don’t know.

• Using Game-By-Game Fastball Velocity to Influence SP Sit/Start Decisions by Lucas Kelly
• MLB pitching models should incorporate recency, giving us an intriguing ranks update by Eno Sarris
• Baseball’s ‘Hot Hand’ Is Real by Rob Arthur and Greg Matthews

This article won’t take the place of my weekly RotoGraphs article and will not have much analysis. Instead, it will only provide data tables for your own analysis.

Quick Note: The data for this article is through games played on August 21st.

Relievers

Relievers only qualify to be placed in the table below if they have three appearances in the last 25 days. Though the time range is 25 days, the calculation only includes the three most recent appearances. In addition, I have isolated the table to relievers who have displayed an average change of .60 or greater in either direction (increase vs. decrease). We should take reliever velocity changes a little less seriously, due to the short nature of their appearances on any given night. For example, Félix Bautista often shows up on the “Fallers” list, but he throws 100+ often. If one night he comes out and gets an easy three outs without having to throw his fastest fastball, he’s going to appear as a faller. On the flip side, I would imagine he’s starting to get tired at this point in the season, so it’s worth monitoring.

Read the rest of this entry »

A vulture, according to a quick Google search is:

a large bird of prey with the head and neck more or less bare of feathers, feeding chiefly on carrion (the decaying flesh of dead animals) and reputed to gather with others in anticipation of the death of a sick or injured animal or person.

Mike Baumann, of the Baltimore Orioles, not FanGraphs.com, has been given the nickname, “The Vulture” due to his 2023 fondness for swooping in and picking up the win once the starter leaves the game. It’s a pretty badass nickname and though by literal definition may not be flattering, it’s still pretty cool. I think Bauman and the rest of the O’s bullpen leaning into it would be fun. Just imagine the reliever taking a huge bite out of a cherry snowcone right before running out of the pen. He begins his warm-up pitches from the mound, red dripping down his chin. The vulture has entered the game.

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Much like Hot Right Now, Cold Right Now will be a weekly Ottoneu feature with a focus on players who are being dropped or who maybe should be dropped in Ottoneu leagues. Hot Right Now will focus on players up for auction, players recently added, and players generally performing well. Cold Right Now will have parallel two of those three sections:

1. Injuries: Players who are being cut because of IL stints.
2. Roster Cuts: Analysis of players with high cut% changes.
3. Cold Performers: Players with a low P/G or P/IP in recent weeks.

There won’t be a corresponding section to Current Auctions because, well, there is nothing in cuts that correspond to current auctions.

Roster Cuts

Bryan Baker, Add% (-) Change (7 days) – 13.74%

Baker’s demotion to AAA mostly seemed like a space-making move to allow Jack Flaherty a roster spot. Baker has been a solid reliever with a 10.93 K/9 and a very small 0.64 HR/9, but a high 5.14 BB/9. Even with that high walk rate (13.7% BB%) Baker’s xERA (3.24) is lower than his actual (3.64). From a pure fantasy production standpoint, however, Baker doesn’t add much to Ottoneu teams. He has recorded no saves and has blown three. He has four wins and 11 holds on the season. It’s highly likely that Baker will return to the O’s bullpen sometime this season and the only reason to add him to fantasy rosters would be for those looking to add wins and holds wherever they can find them.

Scott Barlow, Add% (-) Change (7 days) – 12.46%

Barlow’s actual ERA as a Padre is 11.12 and his FIP is 5.91. That, in part, means that he has been getting somewhat unlucky with balls in play, though he still has given up eight hits, three walks, and a home run in his short stint in San Diego (5.2 IP). Regardless, it wasn’t good for your fantasy team had you been rostering him. If it’s any consolation his worst two appearances as a Padre where he recorded negative points in that format were against the Dodgers. He rebounded with positive points against the Mariners and the Diamondbacks. Either way, lots of fantasy managers are dropping the once-Royals closer because they figure he won’t be recording saves anymore. RosterResource seems to agree, for now, as he’s listed as a middle-reliever. He recorded a hold in his debut with the Padres, but not since.

Luis Severino, Add% (-) Change (7 days) –9.26%

Dan Szymborski recently published “The 2024 Projection Decliners: Pitchers” and Severino was listed as the number two starter. Here’s a snippet from his analysis of Severino:

Sure, the homers will come down, and it’s unlikely Severino will continue to see a BABIP this poor, but there’s no way to explain around a year-over-year loss of about a third of your strikeout rate when combined with a similar ballooning of your walks. This Severino just has too many balls connecting with bats, and it’s hard to get around that.

While some analysts have been relying on the home run rate coming down, Szymborski points out that there is much more than just bad luck happening here:

Even if you were to figure his ERA (8.06) and xERA (6.74) are off, you wouldn’t even want to roster the xERA. His swinging strike rate is down, but so is his overall K/9:

2019: 12.75 –> 2021: 12.00 –> 2022: 9.88 –> 2023: 7.92

Starling Marte, Add% (-) Change (7 days) – 8.95%

It was recently reported that Marte won’t be back on the roster when eligible:

Starling Marte (right groin strain) isn't likely to come off the injured list when eligible on Wednesday, per Buck Showalter. Sounds like he may need a minor league rehab assignment, which will extend his absence even further.

Marte hasn't played since Aug. 5.

— Anthony DiComo (@AnthonyDiComo) August 13, 2023

Perhaps some fantasy managers are done waiting around and are in need of the roster spot. While Marte has been disappointing on the base paths this season with 18 stolen bases, that’s still a pretty great mark. Yes, he was projected by most to be in the high twenties and, by some, in the thirties, but injuries happen. His slash line on the year isn’t what it was last year, but it’s still rosterable at .248/.301/.324. Rest of season projections have him for three more home runs and around seven more stolen bases. His wOBA and SLG were declining somewhat before he went on the IL, but it could have been injury related.

If you’re in a position where you can afford to pick Marte up and you really need stolen bases, he’s not a bad option. Just keep an eye on his performance once he’s back on the field to make sure the injury issues aren’t holding him back.

Matt Manning, Add% (-) Change (7 days) – 7.98%

It has probably been difficult to roster Manning in points formats as he’s given up a lot of home runs in single appearances resulting in three negative point games. But, he’s also hit two games where he’s brought in over 35 points. For the most part, his strike-out numbers are worse than the MLB average, yet his command metrics are better:

–

That plays ok in points formats, but not necessarily in standard roto formats. Manning is still only 25 years old and has a median salary only three dollars in Ottonue leagues. If I had him for three dollars or any amount less than that, I’d be keeping him, playing the matchups, and hoping that his player page “Prospect TLDR” eventually rings true:

We’re sticking to our guns regarding Manning’s FV despite a rocky rookie year, due largely to his athleticism and long-term body projection.

 

Cold Performers

To measure cold performers this week, I’m looking for players with low P/G or P/IP in the last 30 days.

Josh Rojas,  -0.22 P/G: Since moving to Seattle Rojas’ slash line has declined .158/.200/.211, though it is the result of only 20 plate appearances. In 2023 with the Diamondbacks, he lost a lot of playing time and recorded only 216 plate appearances. His slash line with the Diamondbacks in 2023 was .228/.292/.296, which is a far cry away from his 2022 .269/.349/.391. He has been batting in the eight and nine spot in the lineup and playing second base with the Mariners.

Austin Hays,  1.32 P/G: Hays’ first-half slash line was excellent (.314/.355/.498) but it has really come down in the second half (.182/.219/.253). A lot of it has to do with an increased ground ball rate (40.6% first half, 58.9% 2nd half) and a decreased BABIP (.389 first half, .236 second half). His 2022 slash line was .250/.306/.413 so we’re really seeing in-season regression to the mean.

Mitch Keller,  1.15 P/IP: Keller’s home run troubles continue to hurt his value in Ottoneu points leagues especially. In his last five starts (26.2 IP) Keller has given up six home runs and twenty earned runs while walking 10. Those are bad numbers. He did strike out 31, but two of those five starts resulted in negative point accumulation in Ottoneu points leagues.

Alex Cobb,  1.79 P/IP: Much like Keller, Cobb has been bit by the home run bug in his last five starts (26 IP) as he gave up seven home runs and 19 earned runs. He also struck out 19 in those starts, but three of the five games resulted in negative point totals.

The 2023 version of the Bullpen Report includes five different sections, as well as the closer chart, which can be found at the bottom of the page.

We will always include a link to the full Closer Depth Chart at the bottom of the Bullpen Report each day. It’s also accessible from the RosterResource drop-down menu and from any RosterResource page. Please let us know what you think.

1. Notable Workloads: Primary closers or valuable members of a closer committee who have been deemed unavailable or likely unavailable for the current day due to recent workload.
2. Injury News
3. Outlier Saves: Explanation for a non-closer earning a save during the previous day.
4. Committee Clarity: Notes on a closer committee that clarify a pitcher’s standing in the group.
5. Losing A Grip: Struggling closers who could be on the hot seat.

The “RosterResource” link will take you to the corresponding team’s RosterResource depth chart, which will give you a better picture of the full bullpen and results of the previous six days (pitch count, save, hold, win, loss, blown save).

Click HERE to view the full Closer Depth Chart.

Read the rest of this entry »

You had a decision to make recently, didn’t you? You had two starting outfielders in good matchups and you just didn’t know who to choose to start the game. It’s ok. It’s ok. It’s part of the fun. Those micro analyses that bring together all of your understandings of the game of baseball are a lot of fun. At this point in the season, maybe you’re on auto-pilot and you just choose the player who has the highest roster rate in your format because, well heck, everyone else is starting him.

Maybe you’re on the opposite end of the spectrum and you pay too much attention, focusing on minute details such as park factors, hitter/pitcher historical matchups, xwOBA, and more. Whichever style you have held recently, it’s likely that you make good and bad decisions. It’s part of the game. For all the predicting and analyzing we do, baseball is, fairly unpredictable. Let’s go through a few case studies so we can all get some practice. I’ll take two players who appeared at the same position (or position eligibility) and you decide which you would start. Then, we’ll go back and see what actually happened. Let’s get started.

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The 2023 version of Ottoneu Hot Right Now will include three different sections:

1. Current Auctions: A closer look at players being auctioned at a high rate.
2. Roster Adds: Analysis of players with high add% changes.
3. Hot Performers: Players with a high P/G or P/IP in recent weeks.

The FanGraphs Ottoneu team plans to run this feature weekly, updating fantasy managers on the biggest movers in Ottoneu leagues with an analysis of how these players could or could not help your roster.

Read the rest of this entry »