When something becomes sexy, I’m all in. Crocs and socks? Sexy. Minivans with a built-in vacuum cleaner to suck up all the floor Cheerios? Sexy. Throwing a four-seam fastball with a very shallow vertical approach angle due to some serious induced vertical break at the top of the zone? Sexy. Some things some people just can’t pull off. But when a trend becomes a trend, you’re either in or you’re out.

Read the rest of this entry »

Fellow league mate: Are you interested in J-Ram?

Me: Yes, of course. J-Ram rules!

With the cut deadline looming (January 31st, 11:59 PM) many Ottoneu managers are probably in similar situations. Rather than cutting players to slim down maxed-out budgets, some are looking to make trades that will bring back the players they want without having to compete at the auction. This is one of the many beauties of Ottoneu. As all other fantasy leaguers are only focused on drafting, Ottoneu managers can wheel and deal all through the winter.  This article will detail a few ways the player organizer can be useful when analyzing your team going into the keeper deadline.

Read the rest of this entry »

Just 15 pitchers threw 10 or more 101+ MPH four-seam fastballs in 2024.

There are a lot of pitchers who throw fast and only 15 find themselves qualifying here as repeatable flame throwers. Jhoan Duran did it 368 times! Behind him was Félix Bautista who anyone would guess can throw the ball fast after one glance at La Montaña. But, Shintaro Fujinami? He’s on the list? He’s a free agent? Surely some team could use a guy like that. So, why hasn’t any team ventured a bid on a reliever whose fastball velocity ranks in the 97th percentile?

Read the rest of this entry »

I don’t really want to cut Ryan Mountcastle. I think he’s a good first baseman. I’m an Orioles fan so I’m biased. If he got traded I’d be sad, but I would be happy for him. Happy for him? Yes, happy for him. The new dimensions at Oriole Park at Camden Yards have been unkind. Imagine being an aeroplane pilot and showing up to work one day being asked to fly a helicopter. That’s what happened to Ryan Mountcastle. Read the rest of this entry »

The RotoGraphs writers’ positional rankings hit the World Wide Web last week and now such writers, perhaps only myself, are questioning every little keyboard stroke and mouse click involved. You can view my third-base rankings here and follow along all season. I didn’t look at the average draft position (ADP) as calculated by the National Fantasy Baseball Championship (NFBC) while sorting these men who spent at least five games with their feet close to third base last season.

I mostly used the auction calculator with Steamer’s projections and moved things around from there, but only slightly. Take Elly De La Cruz for example. By the auction calculator, he’s ranked 14th (check the link above for settings). I brought him up a few (11th), first knowing the market would be higher and second considering his ceiling. But, as it turns out, the market is even higher on the Cincinnati wonder kid! In this post, I’ll dive into the players who diverge the most from my rankings and where the market (ADP) is so far this draft season.

Read the rest of this entry »

“Good pitching beats good hitting.” I think Casey Stengel said that. The replacement level for a starting pitcher in Ottoneu FanGraphs points leagues is 4.55 P/IP. I said that. What is “good pitching?” from a fantasy baseball standpoint in a very specific format? Well, there are many inputs you can add to the calculation to help answer that question. In this post, I’ll analyze four starting (or expected to be starting) pitchers who I have to make keep or cut decisions on, and soon!

Read the rest of this entry »

Did you load up the auction calculator a few weeks ago and see Mason Miller listed as the 20th-best starter? Load it up again today, and you’ll only see Miller on the relievers page. That’s because Miller’s 2024 role is hard to pin down. Last year, the year Miller made his debut, the young right-hander in Oakland started six games and appeared in relief in four. As a starter, he recorded a 3.70 ERA and as a reliever, 4.00. So after only 33.1 IP in 2023 without a clear role defined, what’s a fantasy manager to do?

Read the rest of this entry »

Last week I analyzed a few players who stood out to me in a mock draft due to their early selection. Whenever this happens, I like to dig in to see what I can learn. This week I’ll keep the party going with three more offensive players I was surprised to see going so early.

*NOTE: All ADP values come from The NFBC, where there have been 61 drafts as of this writing.

–

OF – Adolis García (ADP: 44.30, Min: 24, Max: 65)

The auction calculator has the Texas outfielder ranked as the 17th-best player at the position. In front of him are tried and true players like George Springer, Bryan Reynolds, and Randy Arozarena. He is also the 46th-best batter overall according to the calculator, so pick 44 isn’t too far off if you assume no pitchers are selected in the first four rounds, but that would be unusual. It seems to me that the price is close to being right but still a little inflated by recency bias from the 2023 playoffs where García hit eight home runs, the most of any player in the postseason. He also slashed .323/.382/.726 while striking out 26.5% of the time. García’s BB% regressed to his typical in the playoffs, but his K% decreased. Take a look:

It would be unreasonable to assume García will hit anywhere over .250 in 2024 or that he will strike out under 26% of the time. This is a great example of Steamer predicting regression. The table also shows a perfect example of a player who went galactic in the playoffs, it happens. Remember when Randy Arozarena hit 10 home runs in the 2020 postseason? The comparison is not an apples-to-apples one by any means, but it’s at least orange to clementine:

I’m not implying that it’s as simple as “Randy Arozarena came back down to earth and so will Adolis García.” Arozarena broke out in that incredible 2020 postseason run and then went 20-20 in 2021 with a .274/.356/.459 slash line. But there’s more data on García than there was on Arozarena when making projections after both of their big postseason performances and I think Steamer has it right.

One last thing to point out is that while García could certainly record over 30 knocks in 2024, he may not be stealing the 13 bases Steamer projects. He only recorded nine in 2023 after recording 25 in 2022. That power/speed threat is what bumped García’s value up in years past and I don’t think the adjustment has been made for 2024. The Rangers, whether due to Bruce Bochy’s arrival or not, stole far fewer bags in 2023 than in years past:

2021: 106 -> 2022: 128 -> 2023: 79

Adolis García is a great pick and the error bars on his 2024 projection likely aren’t very wide. Still, those projections include negative regression and if someone drafting before you wants to disregard that, let them.

–

3B – Royce Lewis (ADP: 43.08, Min: 15, Max: 110)

Imagine someone told you there is a young third baseman who is projected for 28 home runs, 13 steals, and a .269/.336/.481 slash line and his name is not Gunnar Henderson. They told you he has recorded only 239 major league plate appearances, but they were good ones, and he hit 15 home runs, stole six bases, and slashed .309/.372/.548. Oh, and that when he made it to the major leagues, he struck out just barely above league average, 23.0% (league average: 22.7%). You would be frothing! Now, imagine someone told you this player is projected for 617 plate appearances by Steamer even though he’s never even recorded half of that before, and you’d become skeptical. Scroll through his NBC Sports Injury Page and you’ll become even more so. You don’t have to read much more, you could just listen to Sleeper and the Bust and hear them discuss Lewis’ ceiling appeal, but injury risk floor. Even still, here are some data points to prepare you for seeing his early ADP during your draft prep:

• His auction calculator position rank is 5th behind Manny Machado and in front of Yandy Díaz.
• He did not slug anywhere south of .500 in AA, AAA, or the major leagues in 2023.
• He worked fastballs for a 7.6 pVal (PitchInfo), sliders for 5.7, and only really struggled against the curveball (-3.5).
• He is the everyday third baseman for the Twins and is projected to bat second

What’s not to like? Well…the injury risk. “But, what’s not to like about candy?”, the dentist asks you as the drill starts up and goes “zzziirrmmhmmm!!!”

–

1B – Christian Encarnacion-Strand (ADP: 127.75, Min: 74, Max: 225)

There are so many young players going in early rounds this season offseason. It feels like more than usual. But with players like Gunnar Henderson, Corbin Carroll, Michael Harris II, and Bobby Witt Jr. seeming like sure shots in 2024, why not? The game has skewed young the past few years and it’s not hard to believe that CES can continue the trend. However, who do you think played the most games at first base for the Reds last season?!

Games Started at First Base – Cincinnati Reds (2023)

• Spencer Steer – 53 GS
• Joey Votto – 44 GS
• Christian Encarnacion-Strand – 32

Joey Votto’s option was declined for a reason, the Reds have some depth at first. But who will stick there defensively? Ok, you win RosterResource, Steer moves to left field and CES takes third. Fine! Is he good enough offensively to stick? He slashed .270/.328/.477 in 63 major league games in 2023 and is expected by Steamer to slash it again (.271/.329/.491). Steamer is lower on his playing time than it is with Royce Lewis (above). CES’s 130-game projection is not a 162-game projection and the difference makes me nervous. He did strike out 28.6% of the time in the major leagues, his base running (BsR) and defense (Def) produced negative numbers, and he walked only .2 times for every time he struck out. Even still, his actual stats didn’t lie:

• AVG: .270 xAVG: .268
• SLG: .477 xSLG: .476
• wOBA: .346 xwOBA: .347

Ok, so what’s his specialty? Power? Speed? Batting average? None, really, but that’s why he’s the 11th-best first baseman for 2024 according to our auction calculator. He does a little bit of everything, or at least, he’s expected to.

Right now, if I wanted to find a free-agent outfielder to add to my team in any of my Ottoneu FanGraphs points leagues, the best I could find is an injured 5.24 points per game (P/G) Andrew McCutchen. After that, playing time gets tricky. Yes, I placed a 30-game filter on my search query, but playing time is always hard to find, always. I see there’s a 4.38 P/G Richie Palacios and a 4.36 P/G DJ Stewart. There’s even a 4.35 P/G Jeff McNeil available. No matter how much tweaking and clicking and scrolling I may do, I still won’t be able to find a replacement better than right around 4.3 P/G. It’s the offseason, I can’t add anyone to my roster from free agency, but it’s a good exercise nonetheless. I previously went into further detail about my process for finding a points-per-game replacement level for each offensive position and in this post, I’ll use the 4.33 P/G replacement level I calculated to make keep or cut decisions on four outfielders.

–

Hunter Goodman, 1B/OF
Salary: $3
Average Salary: $4.74
2023 P/G: 2.76
Proj 2024 P/G: 4.83

In 2022, Goodman rose through three levels of the Rockies minor league system (A, A+, AA) and hit 36 total home runs. In 2023, he started at AA, hit 25 bombs, moved on to AAA, hit another nine, and finally made his major league debut on August 27th. In his debut, he recorded two hits and went 13 for 43 in his first 13 games. That prompted me to write about him in an August 30th, Ottoneu Hot Right Now after which I added him to one of my rosters for $3. The power is tantalizing.

While that .302 batting average to start his major league career grabbed people’s attention, he finished the season going 1 for 27 bringing his scouting report of having a questionable hit tool back to the forefront. All said and done, Goodman’s MLB slash line in 77 plate appearances did not impress:

2023: .200/.247/.386
2024: .254/.308/.483 (PROJ)

But, his projection makes me hopeful. Still, projections for players with only 77 plate appearances can be challenging to buy in on, but for $3, why not? He very well could hit 20 home runs and in a format like FanGraphs points leagues, having a player with a home run and slugging upside even when it is at the detriment of batting average can be ok. As of now, RosterResource has him penciled in as the player in right field batting eighth and that’s good enough for me at $3.

Keep or Cut?
Keep and hope the Rockies don’t Rockie his playing time.

–

Wilyer Abreu, OF
Average Salary: $4.29
Salary: $3.00
2023 P/G: 4.45
Proj 2024 P/G: 4.55

Anytime a player’s AAA slash line looks like Abreu’s did (.274/.391/.538) in a big chunk of plate appearances (363), I’m intrigued. 2023’s AAA BB% (16.3%) and K% (20.4%) looked better than his major league numbers (BB%: 10.6%, K%: 27.1%), but that’s to be expected for a young, 24-year-old, player. His 4.45 P/G mark looked good as a starting point, but his 6.18 P/GS looked even better, as was pointed out by Chad Young’s great article, Finding Ottoneu Bats using P/GS vs. P/G.

Abreu can hit the ball hard and with efficiency. He posted an above-average Barrel% and HardHit% (Statcast) in his small sample of major league games. While his .316 batting average is surely inflated by a .431 BABIP, and his 77.4% Z-Contact% rate was well below average (85.4%), he isn’t swinging out of the zone (O-Swing%) too much, as his 27.1% is better than the MLB average of 31.9%.

Will he be platooned? Maybe. Yes, according to RosterResource. The left-handed hitter batted .333 vs. righties and only .200 against lefties, but being the batter who platoons against right-handed pitching is better than the opposite. That brings his 452 projected plate appearances (Steamer) into question, but for $3, it’s worth the wait-and-see.

Keep or Cut?
Keep!

–

Jose Siri, OF
Average Salary: $4.30
Salary: $3.00
2023 P/G: 4.42
Proj 2024 P/G: 3.95

Jose Siri strikes out a lot. Like, a lot, a lot. His 35.7% was the highest among all players who amassed at least 350 plate appearances in 2023. However, he nearly slugged .500 (.494) and he hit 25 home runs. How much do you typically have to pay for that type of slugging and home run hitting? Here are some (hand-selected) comparable players and their 2023 stats/salaries, focusing only on plate appearances, slugging, and home runs:

Brandon Belt – PA: 404, SLG: .490, HR: 19, Avg. Salary: $3.63

Triston Casas – PA: 502, SLG: .490, HR: 24, Avg. Salary: $9.10

Christian Walker – PA: 661, SLG: .497, HR: 33, Avg. Salary: $9.15

Brandon Drury – PA: 523, SLG: .497, HR: 26, Avg. Salary: $7.15

Each of these players betters Siri’s 364 plate appearances, and they each are hitting above .250, unlike Siri, but consider the price difference and Siri seems like a great player to have on your roster. The biggest problem with this logic is Siri’s 2024 projection. Steamer has him for 463 plate appearances and slugging, a regressed, .411. He just doesn’t have a long enough track record to not regress his slugging percentage. His Steamer projection brings him into cut territory as he is projected to be below my P/G replacement mark. In an early July assessment of Siri’s sustainability, Leo Morgenstern wrote a great article with an even greater title, Back Off Alexa, Jose Siri Is on a Rampage, and after reading it I believe more in Steamer’s projection. Ok, ok, so what is his full projection?:

Steamer 2024: .221/.276/.411, 33.8% K%, 19 HR

Keep or Cut?
Keep. You may notice a pattern with me. I keep a lot. But $3 for 19 home runs seems like a good deal and I’ll stick with it to see what happens.

–

Colton Cowser, OF
Average Salary: $4.62
Salary: $7.00
2023 P/G: 7.51
Proj 2024 P/G: 4.35

Let’s start here. $7.00 is too much for a player with very little path to playing time. As of now, Cowser has been left off the projected RosterResource big league squad. If Cowser gets traded away from Baltimore, and makes it onto an opening day roster in 2024, is $7.00 still too much? Probably so. His latest update to his prospect TLDR is not promising:

Prospects TLDR: Cowser is not a great fit in CF and has shown more swing and miss at upper levels than is ideal for a corner outfielder. He looks more like a platoon option than a true everyday mainstay.

He didn’t necessarily showcase an affinity for hitting against one type of handedness, going .143 vs. lefties and .111 vs. righties in 77 total plate appearances. But, the truth is, 77 major league plate appearances just isn’t enough playing time. Cowser showcased serious power in AAA in 2023. He slashed:

.300/.417/.520

and hit 17 home runs. There is still serious potential for Cowser, but he’ll need playing time to work through his struggles against major-league pitching. He struggled against the fastball, recording negative run value (PitchInfo) on both four-seamers (wFA) and cutters (wFC) and his zone contact rate (Z-Contact%) was below average (Cowser: 83.9%, MLB Average: 85.4%). There is work to be done and the only way to do the work is to get MLB plate appearances. There is certainly something to be said for keeping a player who has outgrown AAA, but hasn’t yet found his groove in the big leagues, but the price would have to be at or below the average $4 for me to do so.

Keep or Cut?
Cut and try to re-draft for a lower price.

You walk into a coffee shop, it’s one of those fancy yet casual ones that looks like it belongs in Europe. You take a look at the menu and you’re astounded. “I’d never pay that much for a cup of coffee. I don’t care what it’s got in it!” you say to yourself as you step out onto the street, thinking just a little bit differently about yourself, the world, and your appetite for afternoon coffee.

As the doorbell jingles and you consider your options for a cheaper caffeine fix, you can’t help but notice that everyone coming out of this new, fancy coffee shop looks so…happy. They’ve got cold drinks, hot drinks, drinks you’ve never seen before and you start to wonder, “Is it worth it?…Nah!”, and you head back to your office for a cup out of that grimy old pot that’s been cooking since Jane got in at 7:45 this morning. But, what will happen tomorrow? Maybe you’ll cough up a few extra dollars just to see what all the fuss is about. After all, you’re outgoing, or at least, you can be.

Is this season the season you drop the metaphorical tried and true and go for something a little more exciting? There are a few hitters who I did not think would go as early as they did in a recent mock draft I participated in, but they did. Like the fancy, more expensive cup of coffee, I’m wondering if I’m missing out and will use this article to dive deeper, seeking to answer the question, is it worth it?

Read the rest of this entry »