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Five Interesting Two-Start Pitchers for Week 3

As we get ready for Week 3, most teams will have reached a point where they are using fifth starters. The schedule still has a few extra off days, so clubs may or may not be on a strict every-fifth-day rotation. Assuming they are, here are five interesting pitchers slated for two starts in leagues whose week starts on Monday.

Justin Masterson – With Daisuke Matsuzaka on the disabled list, Masterson makes his first start of the season on Monday. He is at home versus the Orioles on Monday and if he stays in the rotation will be at home to face the Yankees at the end of the week.

Jordan Zimmermann – The Nationals are slated to promote top prospect Zimmermann from the minors to make his first start of the season at home versus the Braves. His second start will be at New York versus the Mets.

Andrew Miller – The sixth pick of the 2006 draft gets a start Monday at Pittsburgh and later in the week the lefty Miller has a home start versus the lefty-heavy Phillies.

Scott Richmond – After a strong outing (6.1 IP, 1 ER) in his last start versus the Twins, Richmond has a home start versus the Rangers on Tuesday and at Chicago on Sunday.

Armando Galarraga – Last year’s surprise pitcher sees if he can keep his hot 2009 start going with games Tuesday at the Angels and Sunday at Kansas City.

Other potential two-start pitchers in Week 3 are:

Simon, Eveland, Pettitte, Lowe, Correia, Moyer, Hampton, Marquis, Garland, Contreras, Hendrickson, Baker, Wakefield, Ramirez, Laffey, Anderson, Sabathia, Kawakami, Martis, Parra, Blanton, Sanchez, Karstens, McCarthy, Owings, Harden, Kershaw, Ortiz, Perez, Pineiro, Morales, Petit, Weaver, Sonnanstine, Washburn, Peavy and Cain.


Trade Targets and Dump Guys

The earlier a fantasy owner can pull off a good trade the better, as the longer he will have the undervalued players on his roster. It is not uncommon for leagues to have owners with itchy trigger fingers, so it is never too soon to examine players to acquire or deal. While some owners are more likely to hold on to underperforming veterans, there are just as many who are looking to acquire the next big rookie. So here are five guys to pick up and five players to move.

Acquire

Jimmy Rollins – A notoriously streaky hitter, Rollins is hitting just .121 with no HR and no SB in seven games. He does not have to be 2007 MVP good to justify giving up something worthwhile to acquire him when his value may be down.

Chris Davis – Everyone’s favorite sleeper during mock draft season, Davis has a .154 average with one HR. He has hit in every stop along the way to the majors and is still the same guy who hit .285 in Texas last year. Davis will not have a 42 percent K rate all year.

Dustin Pedroia – He has just a .179 average thanks to a .160 BABIP. Three of his five hits have gone for extra bases and he has three walks compared to two strikeouts.

Gil Meche – An undervalued pitcher to begin with, Meche is winless in his first two starts. But 12 strikeouts in 14 IP with a 6:1 SO/BB ratio is indicative of how well he has pitched. And Meche’s two starts were in Chicago and versus the Yankees, so a 3.12 ERA is very good.

Dan Haren – After a 16-win season in 2008, Haren opened 2009 with an 0-2 mark. All of his other numbers are good so owners will likely be hesitant to give him up, but it may be possible to find someone who drafted him high based on other’s assessments of him who may be having doubts.

Dump

Emilio Bonifacio – Yeah, it is fun having him on your team only to say his name but his value will never be higher. And despite his current .714 SLG he is not going to hit for power and he will have to hit better than the .268 that his top pre-season projection had him going for to be a worthwhile fantasy player.

Kyle Lohse – A perfect 2-0 record with a 0.56 WHIP has been posted versus Houston and Pittsburgh, contenders for worst teams in baseball. Also, both of these games came at home, where Lohse was 8-2 with an ERA over a full run lower than it was on the road in 2008.

Adam Lind – The main problem with Lind is that he has no plate discipline. And even in this great hot streak to start the season, he has six strikeouts and one walk in 35 at-bats. Trade him while those 12 RBIs are among the league leaders.

Nyjer Morgan – No one doubts the SB potential but at the same time, no one doubts the complete lack of power, either. Morgan needs to get on base more and he still shows no propensity to take a walk. While he’s likely to post a high BABIP it simply will not be of the .444 variety where it currently stands.

Joe Saunders – Last year Saunders surprised everyone by posting 17 wins. But he had a FIP nearly a full run higher than his ERA, the fourth-worst mark in the majors. So far he has a win and a 2.63 ERA in two starts, but his FIP is more than two runs higher and his strikeout and walk numbers are still nothing to write home about.


Vernon Wells and the Injury Bug

It was an injury-plagued season for Blue Jays outfielder Vernon Wells in 2008. First he missed 26 games due to a broken left wrist and then had to sit out 25 more due to a hamstring injury. After returning on August 10th from the latter injury, Wells hit .318/.365/.566 over his final 189 plate appearances, putting up those numbers with a .291 BABIP as he had 11 HR and 13 SO in that span.

The projection systems do not anticipate a big year from Wells in 2009. All five see him missing significant time, with the CHONE system giving him the most action with 555 at-bats. That is a total that Wells exceeded in five of the six seasons prior to 2008, and he topped 600 at-bats in four of those.

Is Wells now a big injury risk? It is hard not to notice his at-bats have gone from 611-584-427 over the past three seasons. In addition to his two injuries last year, Wells suffered a shoulder injury near the end of 2007, which required surgery. He has also missed time this Spring with a sore hamstring.

In his last healthy season in 2006, Wells put up a top-25 fantasy season among hitters. The last two months of 2008, he showed that he is still capable of putting up big numbers. Wells currently sits with an ADP of 105 according to the latest report over at Mock Draft Central.

Wells is a classic high-risk, high-reward pick. No one will blame you if you shy away from him on Draft Day. However, for my tastes there is just too much upside to pass on him at the end of the ninth round. It seems like Wells has been around forever, but he turned 30 at the end of last year, so it would not be a big surprise to see him put up a healthy season again.

The hamstring injury is a big concern because of the possibility for that to flare up at any time. But his other two injuries were not of the chronic nature. He may no longer be a threat to steal 20 bases, but if running less keeps him on the field more, that is a trade off fantasy owners should be willing to take.

He should be very productive while in the lineup and he offers the possibility of great stats if he can get back to the 150 games played level. If you drafted solid, low-risk guys in the early rounds, you should be able to gamble on a guy like Wells at his current ADP.


Will Victor Martinez Bring Fantasy Spoils?

Victor Martinez was the top catcher on most draft boards prior to the 2008 season. He had an ADP of 29 following his 2007 season where he hit .301-25-114-78-0. Of course Martinez ended up a big disappointment, as he came down with first a hamstring problem and then an injured elbow.

Martinez ultimately needed surgery to remove bone chips from his elbow. When he returned from the disabled list, he hit for disappointing power numbers the final two months of the season.

The mock draft crowd has knocked Martinez down quite a bit this year. He carries an ADP of 80, 51 spots lower than a season ago, and making him on average the fifth catcher off the board.

There have been no reports of problems with the elbow this Spring. Martinez has been a regular in Cleveland’s lineup. He has six extra-base hits, including three home runs, in 38 at-bats, which has led to a .579 slugging mark.

Now, 38 at-bats is not usually anything you want to make any judgments about and Spring Training stats are notoriously misleading. But in the particular case of Martinez, seeing him hit for power is definitely a good sign.

If Martinez can come anywhere close to his 2007 fantasy line, he will be a steal at his current ADP because of the value of those stats from a catcher. With the uncertainty surrounding Joe Mauer, fantasy owners would be wise to bump Martinez over the Twins backstop and put him on a par with Geovany Soto, who carries an ADP of 66.


Rule 5 Success Story Joakim Soria

The Royals picked Joakim Soria in the Rule 5 draft from the Padres. Two days later he pitched a perfect game in the Mexican League. Soria has a starting pitcher’s repertoire and is one of the few closers to throw four pitches. He will not blow you away with his fastball, but Soria has very good command and he puts batters away with his curve.

FanGraphs shows Soria throwing his curve just under 10 percent of the time. ESPN shows Soria throwing his hook 25 percent of the time when he gets to two strikes on a batter. Overall, opponents hit just .048 against Soria’s deuce.

Soria had nearly a 3.5:1 SO/BB ratio last year. He also did a fine job of keeping the ball in the park, as he allowed only five home runs in 67.1 innings. Batters swung at just 61.7 percent of pitches by Soria in the strike zone, a figure that ranked 19th among all relievers last year. Additionally, he induced swings on balls outside the zone 27.4 percent of the time.

But, much like Mariano Rivera, there are warning signs around Soria, too. He had a microscopic .215 BABIP last year. He also had an 89.5 percent strand rate. Not surprisingly, Soria’s FIP was 3.25 or more than twice his regular ERA. None of these should be dismissed lightly.

Still, on the plus side of the ledger we have Soria’s age (he’ll turn 25 in May), command, repertoire, ability to keep the ball in the park and lack of platoon split. In his brief career, lefties have a .167/.242/.255 line against Soria. So if you want a relief pitcher in the first 10 rounds, the Royals closer is a relative bargain with an ADP of 97.


Jermaine Dye and the Cell

Jermaine Dye had a career year in 2006 and turned in a top 10 fantasy season for hitters. Predictably he fell off that pace in 2007, a fall aided by a 63-point drop in BABIP and a recurring quadriceps injury. He rebounded in 2008 to be a top 40 fantasy hitter. The mock draft crowd is not convinced that Dye will maintain all of the recovery he made last year, as they have given him an ADP of 86.

The biggest concern surrounding Dye seems to be his AVG. He has a lifetime .276 mark in the category, and all five of the projection systems show him within a few points either way of that mark. Yet Dye has beaten his career average in two of the past three seasons, by 16 and 39 points.

The year in the last three that Dye did not beat his lifetime average he had a .271 BABIP. He has a career .302 mark in the category. Last year Dye had a .305 BABIP and finished with a .292 average.

Another factor in Dye’s poor 2007 season is that he did not take advantage of his home park. After posting a .307/.393/.595 line at U.S. Cellular Field in 2006, Dye hit only .258/.317/.384 at home in 2007. Last year he posted a .336/.388/.608 line in one of the best hitter’s parks in the game.

Earlier, there were reports that the White Sox were looking to move Dye but nothing has come from that so far. If Dye gets to hit 81 games in Chicago, he has a very good chance to exceed his ADP. He is not someone you want to move too far up from his current ranking, which has him as an early eighth-round pick, but Dye is someone who offers upside at his current draft position.


Can Mariano Rivera Defy Father Time?

After three straight seasons of declining saves totals, Mariano Rivera rebounded to post 39 in 2009, his highest total since he notched 43 in 2005. Rivera is a wonder, but he faces long odds to match his saves total from last year in 2009. Trevor Hoffman is the only pitcher in MLB history to post 39 or more saves at age 39 (or above), the age Rivera will be this season.

Yet the mock draft crowd has faith in Rivera, making him on average the fifth reliever picked in drafts. He has an ADP of 83, making him a late-seventh-round pick. Assuming you want a reliever at that spot, is Rivera a good choice?

There has been no drop-off in velocity with his famous cutter and Rivera has been able to maintain excellent K/9 numbers.

But there are three factors that helped Rivera to his outstanding 2008 season, when he was the second-best reliever in the game behind Francisco Rodriguez. First, Rivera had a .232 BABIP, over 100 points lower than he did in 2007. Second, he posted the lowest walk rate of his career with a 0.76 BB/9 mark. And third, Rivera had the highest strand rate of his career with an 87.6 percent LOB%.

Rivera has had an ERA under two in five of the last six years. There is no reason to expect him to fall off a cliff in 2009. But given his age and his incredible peripherals last season, there is not much reason to expect a repeat of 2008, either. The mock drafters are knocking him down but I would suggest not far enough.

Instead of Rivera in the seventh round, why not wait a round and take Joakim Soria, he of the 97 ADP? Or wait two rounds and take Jose Valverde, he of the back-to-back 40-save seasons. These two pitchers do not have the name recognition of Rivera, but are likely to put up comparable or better seasons as the venerable Yankees closer.


Will Carlos Pena Bounce Back?

Carlos Pena followed up his monster 2007 season with a disappointing year. Last year’s highlights for Pena were hitting 31 HR and driving in 102, which led to a $10 season according to Last Player Picked. The mock draft crowd is expecting a bounce back season in 2009 for the Tampa Bay slugger, as they have given him an ADP of 65 according to the latest rankings at Mock Draft Central.

Pena has great power, but it was unlikely that he was going to match his 2007 HR output. That year, he had a 29.1 percent HR/FB ratio, the fourth-highest mark in the majors. His career mark in the category is 19.7 percent. As expected, Pena fell off in 2008, dropping to an 18.8 percent mark last year, although he got a boost by hitting a career-best 50.3 percent of his batted balls in the air.

Another area where Pena was likely to regress last year was in his AVG. In 2007, he posted a career-high with a .282 mark. A lifetime .251 hitter, Pena produced a .247 average last season. Looking forward, none of the five projection systems show Pena coming anywhere close to his 2007 AVG. Marcel, which uses a weighted-average of the past three seasons, has the highest mark at .261 while the rest have him in the .250s.

It is likely that Pena will be below average in both AVG and SB so he really has to make hay in the other three categories. But there is no reason to expect the 31-year old to come close to duplicating the power numbers from his career-year of 2007. Plus he has never scored a ton of runs, with a career high of 99.

Add it all together and we have an overvalued player. Last year Pena was the 17th-best player with 1B eligibility, according to the RotoTimes Player Rater. He has the 10th-best ADP for a first-base eligible player this year. The Bill James projection, usually the most optimistic, has Pena with a .254-31-90-77-2 line.

I would expect Chris Davis, Carlos Delgado and Joey Votto to all beat that line. Garrett Atkins, Aubrey Huff and Derrek Lee could post better numbers, and it would not surprise me. The bottom line is not to reach for Pena if you get shut out from the top first basemen.


Is Drafting Magglio Ordonez a Hairy Proposition?

In 2007, Magglio Ordonez posted a .363-28-139-117-4 line, easily his best work in five years. However, he did this in large part thanks to a .385 BABIP, the fifth-highest mark in the majors. In 2008, with a still-high .338 BABIP, Ordonez checked in with a .317-21-103-72-1 line. According to the RotoTimes Player Rater, it was the 47th-best hitting season in the majors last year.

The latest numbers over at Mock Draft Central have Ordonez with an ADP of 64. With 10 pitchers with a higher ADP than 64, the mockers are expecting at least a little fall back from Ordonez in 2009.

In order to justify that ADP, Ordonez will need another high BABIP. Fortunately, all five of the projection systems see him bettering his lifetime mark of .320 in the category. Ordonez has always been a good line drive hitter, he does not strike out very much and even at age 34, he ran well enough to beat out 11 infield hits last year.

But what can we expect from Ordonez in the power categories? For five straight seasons, Ordonez hit 29 or more home runs. But in his last three healthy years, he has posted HR totals of 24-28-21. The easy answer is that he went from a great park for homers in Chicago to a merely good one in Detroit.

From 2000-2002, Ordonez hit 62 HR at home and 39 on the road. Contrast that to 2006-2008, when he hit 38 HR in Comerica compared to 35 on the road.

But it is not just the ballpark. Pitchers seem to fear Ordonez less than they used to back in his Chicago days. Last year, he saw fastballs on 63.9 percent of his pitches, an unusually high number for a 30-HR threat. That was the 23rd-highest percentage of fastballs by any batter in the majors. He is surrounded on the list by weak-hitting middle infielders and catchers, and outfielders with no power. Among power hitters, only Matt Holliday and Manny Ramirez saw a greater percentage of fastballs.

The projection systems show him hitting 20-24 HR in 2009. It would not be unreasonable for him to meet these projections but at the same time it seems clear that his 30-HR days are a thing of the past.

Bottom line is that while Ordonez is capable of meeting his ADP, there is absolutely no upside if you spend an early sixth-round pick on him. And while there is nothing wrong with a player matching what you expect from him, you have to counter that with the risk involved. With Ordonez, the risk is that his BABIP fails to meet the lofty expectations and instead of being a plus with a .310+ AVG he ends up being neutral or even a negative in the category.


Does Aramis Ramirez’ ADP Pass the Smell Test?

Aramis Ramirez has been a fantasy star for seven of the past eight seasons. With the uncertainty surrounding Alex Rodriguez, some consider Ramirez as the third-best at the position, trailing only David Wright and Evan Longoria. According to the latest numbers at Mock Draft Central, Ramirez has an ADP of 31, making him a mid-third-round pick.

Last year among third basemen, Ramirez finished second in RBIs (111), third in Runs (97), fourth in AVG (.289) and fifth in home runs (27). Those are all very good numbers but do they add up to his ADP?

The RotoTimes Player Rater had Ramirez’ 2008 as the 41st-best season for a hitter, which trailed Kevin Youkilis, Chipper Jones and Aubrey Huff, three players who currently have a lower ADP than Ramirez.

There are questions surrounding all three of those guys but it is not as if Ramirez does not have issues of his own. From 2004-2006, Ramirez averaged 35 HR and a .304 AVG. Since then he is striking out more, hitting for less power and only a relatively high BABIP is keeping his average close to where it has been previously.

Last year Ramirez struck out in 17 percent of his at-bats, his highest total since 2002. After three straight years with an ISO in the .260s, Ramirez has seen his marks slip to .239 in 2007 and .229 a season ago. His HR/FB rate has dropped from a high of 18.7 percent in 2005 to 15.1 to 13.3 to 12.0 percent last season. Only a career-best 48.3 percent fly ball rate kept his HR totals as high as they were last season.

Ramirez has a lifetime .293 BABIP. The past two seasons he posted .316 and .307 marks in the category. Last year he hit .289 with his .307 BABIP. In 2004 he hit nearly 30 points higher with the exact same BABIP. Four times in the last seven years, Ramirez has totaled a BABIP under .300 and if he does that again in 2009 his average could suffer a big drop.

To get back to his 04-06 peak will take quite a turnaround for Ramirez in 2009. Just matching his fantasy numbers from 2008 may be a bit too much to ask. Ramirez gets a slight position bump but not anywhere big enough to make him worth his ADP.