At the conclusion of any season, there will be no shortage of people telling you they “knew” something unexpected was going to happen. Of course these people are incredibly silent before events have unfurled. So, I want to put down in writing a fantasy prediction for each major league team. Each of these predictions will go against the grain of conventional wisdom, since there is no point in predicting that Adam Dunn will hit a lot of HR or Mariano Rivera will notch a lot of Saves.

Arizona – Justin Upton hits under .280

Atlanta – Derek Lowe produces less fantasy value than Oliver Perez

Baltimore – Nick Markakis hits 25 HR

Boston – Tim Wakefield has an ERA over 5

Chicago (A) – Gavin Floyd notches 15 Wins

Chicago (N) – Ryan Dempster has a K/9 under 7.25

Cincinnati – Jay Bruce hits .275

Cleveland – Tony Sipp takes over as closer

Colorado – Jorge de la Rosa posts an ERA under 4.00

Detroit – Miguel Cabrera fails to reach 30 HR

Florida – Jorge Cantu tops 23 HR

Houston – Felipe Paulino puts up a more valuable fantasy season than Bud Norris

Kansas City – Mike Aviles records double digits in both HR and SB

Los Angeles (A) – Bobby Abreu has more HR than SB

Los Angeles (N) – Rafael Furcal hits over .280

Milwaukee – Rickie Weeks hits 20 HR

Minnesota – Orlando Hudson hits under .265

New York (A) – Derek Jeter fails to hit .300

New York (N) – David Wright tops 25 HR

Oakland – Daric Barton hits at least .275

Philadelphia – Chase Utley combines for fewer than 200 Runs and RBIs

Pittsburgh – Lastings Milledge hits 15 HR

San Diego – Jon Garland posts an ERA under 3.75

San Francisco – Bengie Molina fails to hit 15 HR

Seattle – Casey Kotchman reaches 15 HR

St. Louis – Mark DeRosa (ADP 228) outearns Chipper Jones (ADP 132) Kyle Lohse will top 12 Wins

Tampa Bay – Ben Zobrist hits 25 HR

Texas – Josh Hamilton gets 100 RBIs

Toronto – Brett Cecil gets 10 Wins

Washington – Garrett Mock posts an ERA under 4.00

Last night I participated in a 12-team mixed draft. A few things you need to know before we get to the roster. First, I share this team with another owner. Second, our starting lineup each week consists of nine hitters and six pitchers. Third, there are six hitting categories and five pitching (don’t ask). Finally, this is not an expert league. We had the sixth pick and ended up with this squad

Joe Mauer
David Wright
Jose Reyes
Adam Lind
Dan Haren
Brian Roberts
Ubaldo Jimenez
Nelson Cruz
Cliff Lee
Lance Berkman
Michael Cuddyer
Denard Span
David Aardsma
Jay Bruce
Jason Heyward
Roy Oswalt
Johnny Cueto
Ted Lilly
Joe Blanton
Ervin Santana
Octavio Dotel
Rafael Furcal
Jon Garland

Given the uncertain power output of both Mauer and Wright, along with the health concerns with Reyes, we were concerned about having too much risk on this team. But every other owner in the league seemed to be avoiding risk at all costs. Higher ranked players with the red box next to their name were being bypassed, regardless if the injury was going to keep them out a month or whether it was a day-to-day thing.

Starting with round nine, we embraced people who may or may not be ready to play the first week or first month of the season. Here are the walking wounded and the reasons they fell in this draft:

Lee – Suspension and abdominal strain
Berkman – arthroscopic knee surgery
Oswalt – hamstring injury
Lilly – shoulder surgery, knee injury
Santana – inflamed bursa sac

We also just missed on Carlos Beltran and Brandon Webb, who were selected on the round we were going to draft them.

With this many injury concerns on the team, we are bound to have some players miss extended time. But given the shallow nature of our starting lineups, we determined that they were all risks worth taking. It is not the plan we entered the draft with, but it is an example of how you have to remain flexible and be willing to shift gears during your draft.

Wednesday night I participated in a 12-team NL-only auction in a challenge run by Dave Gawron of RotoCommunity.com. This was part of a three-team competition among various fantasy sites, which included a mixed league as well as an AL-only squad.

The competition was tough and I have no illusions about winning this league. My main hope is not to sink the hopes of the other two teams for the site I was representing.

I went in with the plan of not paying more than $30 for any player. I was going to punt AVG and put a little more money towards pitching. My goal was to have a strong OF and end up with two closers. I ended up with the following team:

Ryan Doumit – $13
Jason Castro – $1
Adam Dunn – $25
Clint Barmes – $10
Troy Glaus – $14
Stephen Drew – $17
Rafael Furcal – $9
Mark DeRosa – $11
Jason Bay – $26
Michael Bourn – $19
Nate McLouth – $16
Chris Young – $8
Scott Hairston – $1
Justin Maxwell – $4
Luke Gregerson – $1
Jason Marquis – $2
Tim Hudson – $6
Jorge de la Rosa – $9
Ubaldo Jimenez – $21
Brandon Webb – $10
Heath Bell – $16
Felipe Paulino – $2
Chad Qualls – $18

Best buys – McLouth, Hudson, Bell
Worst buys – Glaus, Glaus, Qualls
Cautiously optimistic – Young, Webb
Fingers crossed – Barmes, Bourn

I was surprised both at how quickly the big boys were nominated and how much money was spent early in this auction. My first five buys – Bay, Dunn, Bourn, Jimenez and Bell – were ones I had valued differently than others, as I had them going for more, while seemingly everyone else purchased early went above where I thought they would.

It seemed like everything was going as planned. I was waiting for prices to drop in the middle and then I was going to scoop up the bargains. But for me those bargains never materialized. All of the guys I was targeting went for more money than I was prepared to bid. Then I found myself in a bad place – plenty of money and no one at key positions to spend it on.

Two days later I still can’t believe the money I spent on Glaus. I was hoping for Mark Reynolds but he was too expensive. I thought Casey Blake was too pricey at $11 but that was a bargain compared to what I was left holding. Even Chipper Jones would have been a better buy. Let’s just move on.

The other thing I wish I had done differently was spend on relievers early. Seemingly there was no premium on high-end closers but near the end, everyone started bidding up the third and fourth-tier guys. The owner who snagged Francisco Rodriguez at $15 did a lot better than the rest of us. While I paid too much for Qualls, I don’t think it was a crippling blow.

The middle infielders I ended up with were very surprising. I was targeting Phillips, Uggla or Weeks but each went for more money than I was expecting. Uggla went for $18 and I wish I had tried $19. But if Barmes holds on to the position, he could be a nice addition. I can live with the AVG if he puts up another 20 HR season.

Drew was a guy I thought was going to have a big year in 2009, so hopefully he comes through here one year later. I did not expect to pay $9 for my MI, but I thought that was a nice value for Furcal. Ryan Theriot went for $15 and Alcides Escobar for $17.

Generally, I am not a McLouth fan, but he is much more appealing when AVG is a lesser concern. The one thing I did right in the auction was to nominate Corey Hart immediately after I won McLouth. Hart ended up going for the same $16, which seems crazy to me. Nor am I a big Young fan. But he is only 26 and I am hoping that his production after he was recalled from the minors last year is indicative of what he will give in 2010.

Times have changed when a fantasy owner is happy about having two SP for the Rockies but I like both of these guys. The key for me is how soon Webb can return to the mound. If he only misses a month and comes back at 90 percent of what he was, then I will be happy.

I would prefer to have less risk (Doumit, Barmes, Glaus, Webb) and more upside but at the same time a little risk is a good thing. Now that it is over, my goal is to pull at least 75 points with this team. Do you think that is realistic?

Last season was a year to forget for Tigers pitcher Nate Robertson. A sprained thumb suffered during Spring Training contributed to him opening the season in the bullpen, a place he was unfamiliar with having made starts in 163 of his previous 174 outings in the majors. His new role, along with more injuries, kept him under 50 innings pitched for the year. And when he did pitch the results were just not there. But last year’s troubles are why Robertson is an attractive end-game target for those in AL-only leagues this season.

In addition to the thumb injury, Robertson also suffered in 2009 from a lower back strain that landed him on the disabled list. And if that wasn’t enough, he had surgery to remove a mass from his left elbow that kept him out for 60 days. Robertson ended the 2009 campaign with inflammation on the left side of his pelvis. And in November he had surgery for a torn muscle in his groin.

And you thought you were happy to see 2010 come.

This year Robertson finds himself battling for a spot back in the rotation. He has had a strong Spring and thru games on Tuesday he leads the Tigers with 14.2 IP. Robertson has 2-0 record with a 3.68 ERA, with 6 BB and 14 Ks.

For the five seasons prior to 2009, Robertson averaged just under 31 starts per year for Detroit. His strong showing in Grapefruit League play should help him sew up a spot back in the rotation this year. In 2009, Robertson had a 3.86 ERA in six games as a starter and a 7.48 ERA in 22 games out of the pen.

In addition to pitching out of the pen, two other things stand out as outliers for Robertson last year. Historically a ground ball pitcher, he had a 0.99 GB/FB ratio last year. Also, Robertson usually has pretty solid control, but last year he had a 5.07 BB/9, nearly two full walks above his 3.24 career average.

Assuming Robertson reverts to throwing strikes and getting ground balls, he should be a fine $1 pitcher to target at the end of drafts. In addition to everything else that went wrong last year, he also had a .344 BABIP, 33 points above his career norm. Robertson does not need to make any improvements in his game, he just needs to be healthy and have a reasonable amount of luck to be a good addition to your fantasy team.

After missing the entire 2009 season due to surgery on a torn labrum, Rockies pitcher Jeff Francis is back pitching and is in the running for the fifth starter’s job. Saturday’s outing was rough (4 IP, 6 R, 6 H) but should not detract from the fact that if he does make the rotation, Francis is an excellent $1 pitcher in NL-only leagues.

Before the injury, Francis was on his way to becoming one of the top young pitchers in the game. Over the 2006-07 seasons, he had 30 W, a 4.19 ERA and a 1.335 WHIP in his age 25 and 26 seasons. While he did not rack up strikeouts (282 in 414.1 IP), his K/9 went from 5.3 in 2006 to 6.9 in 2007 and he had a 2.62 K/BB ratio in the latter year.

Francis did this without overpowering stuff. His fastball averaged in the mid-80s over these two seasons and was actually a negative pitch in 2007. But he succeeded thanks to an extremely effective changeup. At 11.9 runs above average, Francis’ change was the seventh-best one in MLB in 2007. He also mixed in a curve ball, which was an average offering.

In 2008, Francis struggled right off the bat. He finally went on the disabled list at the end of June with shoulder inflammation and missed five weeks. After getting roughed up again in his first outing after being activated, Francis reeled off six strong starts (2.82 ERA, 24 Ks, 9 BB, 38.1 IP) before being shut down for good after September 12th. In February of 2009, he underwent arthroscopic surgery and missed the regular season.

Flash forward to 2010 and Francis has made four starts in the Cactus League. He is still a work in progress and the velocity on his fastball has not been consistent. Overall Francis has 13 IP, 16 H, 10 ER, 5 BB and 9 Ks. Francis needs the separation between his fastball and changeup to be significant in order for the latter pitch to succeed. He still has two more starts left this Spring to iron things out. However, as the team’s fifth starter, Francis would not pitch the early part of April and could have additional time in Arizona to refine his stuff.

In the end game, you want to take pitchers with both upside and a good shot at a starting spot. We know that Francis has significant upside, based upon what he has already done in the majors. And he should be the team’s fifth starter if he is healthy. Francis is battling journeymen Tim Redding and Gregory Smith for the final rotation slot and should be an easy choice if his shoulder is sound.

So, if you have time before your auction or draft, monitor Francis’ final two outings. Better results than his last performance would be nice, but the real key is that he logs innings and does not suffer any setbacks. If both of those things are true, Francis should be a prime target to fill out the back of your staff.

Usually we try to give you information to put together a good fantasy baseball team. But last night I participated in a draft where the idea is to put together the worst fantasy baseball squad. Yes, you read that right. In Razzball, the idea is to put together a team of stiffs, preferably ones that stink up the joint for the entire season.

This was my first time playing Razzball. I felt like I owed it to Rudy after I used his Point Share Ratings so often. Plus, this year they have teamed up with DreamMaker Spas and SpaDepot.com to award the overall winner a spa valued at over $3,000. I can be bought and this meets my price.

Unfortunately, the draft for Razzball came at a most inopportune time. I just got back from a week in Arizona and not only did I have some nice jet lag going on, but I also came home to a sick 4-year old who decided to spend the night and day throwing up. Good times, although not one that lent itself to studying for a draft to pick terrible players.

My strategy was to focus on hitters and draft players from the Royals and Pirates. I ended up with this team:

Rick Ankiel
Scott Podsednik
Yuniesky Betancourt
Jason Kendall
Martin Prado
Brendan Harris
Kosuke Fukudome
Andy LaRoche
Garrett Jones
Corey Hart
Ryan Sweeney
Orlando Hudson
Armando Galarraga
Manny Parra
Kevin Millwood
Brett Myers
J.D. Martin
David Huff
Vin Mazzaro
Billy Buckner
Freddy Garcia
Geoff Blum
Jamey Carroll
Anderson Hernandez
Fernando Nieve
Mat Gamel
Eugenio Velez

Clearly, this is not a good team. But I have no idea if it is truly Razzball bad. I like the versatility offered by Prado, Harris, Jones, Blum, Carroll, Hernandez and Velez. Prado may seem like a weird pick, but he’s eligible at first base and the league is set up to award players who do not hit HR. The scoring is as follows:

At Bats (AB) 2 Runs (R) -4 Hits (H) -3 Home Runs (HR) -6 Runs Batted In (RBI) -4 Strikeouts (K) 2
Innings Pitched (IP) -1 Losses (L) 8 Hits (H) 1 Earned Runs (ER) 1.5 Home Runs (HR) 4 Walks (BB) 1 Strikeouts (K) -1

According to Razzball, “The point structure makes it so that about 2/3 of the league’s hitters as well as just about every pitcher has positive value. So leaving a roster spot open or filled by a guy who plays once a week will hurt your team.” Also the innings are capped at 1,250 so I’ll have to find some poor middle relievers on the waiver wire during the year.

It was fun thinking about fantasy in a completely different way. It will also be nice to have a reason now to check the boxscores for the Royals. May all of my KC guys come up with 500-plus ABs!

Sunday was my final day with the FanGraphs crew in Arizona. We tried to see the Cubs-Angels game but it was sold out. So, to make Matt Klaassen happy, we ended up seeing the Royals for the second time, as they took on the A’s. Leaving aside the question if watching the Royals makes a fan of their team happy or not, the game did provide a nice opportunity to see two pitchers vying for a spot in the rotation.

The Royals are set at the top of the rotation with Zack Greinke and Gil Meche. But after that comes a host of interchangeable pitchers. The depth charts at MLB.com, CBS Sports, ESPN and Yahoo! each show Kyle Davies as having a starting spot. Davies got the start today but was ineffective. He allowed 6 ER, 7 H and 3 BB (no Ks) in 2.2 IP.

Davies was relieved by Robinson Tejeda, who did not make the top five in any of the above listed depth charts. Tejeda cleaned up the mess left by Davies and pitched 2.1 scoreless innings. He allowed just one hit and struck out two. Tejeda was much more effective, although he was helped greatly by two nice catches by center fielder Jarrod Dyson.

It is never a good idea to read too much into Spring Training outings, but is there any reason to believe that Davies is a better option for the rotation than Tejeda? In two-plus seasons with the Royals, Davies has never had an ERA below 4.06 or a WHIP below 1.451, both of which he posted in 2008. That season, Davies’ numbers look good due to a 6.9 percent HR/FB rate. His xFIP for that season was 4.82, right in line with his 5.08 career xFIP.

Meanwhile, in 60 games for the Royals covering 113 IP, Tejeda has a 3.42 ERA. Last year Tejeda had a 4.07 ERA as a reliever and then in six games as a starter, he went 3-1 with a 2.84 ERA. Overall, he posted a 3.54 ERA, right in line with his 3.60 FIP. Tejeda’s xFIP checks in at 4.47, as he had a 4.7 HR/FB mark. In 373.2 IP in the majors, Tejeda has a 7.8 HR/FB mark.

But even if his xFIP is indicative of his true talent (it was 4.46 in 2008), that still makes him a better option than Davies. With a mid-90s fastball, a slider and a change, Tejeda racks up the strikeouts because he can produce swings-and-misses. He had a 10.63 K/9 last year and a 71.7 Contact%. In 2008, Tejeda had a 70.7 Contact%. If he could do that over an entire season of pitching, that would be among the best marks in the majors, if not the best.

With Tejeda, the big thing is his control. He had a 6.11 BB/9 mark last year and in his career he has a 5.23 BB/9. Even in his successful stint as a starter last year, Tejeda allowed 20 BB in 31.2 IP. The danger is with all of those baserunners that Tejeda could implode with an unlucky year in HR/FB rate. The potential for disaster is even greater because he is a fly ball pitcher. Last year Tejeda had a 0.69 GB/FB ratio.

But he has never had a season like that in the majors. In five seasons in the bigs, Tejeda’s worst HR/FB mark was the 10.7 percent ratio he posted in 2007. In order to justify starting Davies over Tejeda, one has to assume that Tejeda will have a season like he’s never had before while also assuming the same for Davies, just in the opposite direction.

Davies’ problem is that his fastball is not an effective pitch. While he averaged 91.6 with his heater last year, he was 9.5 runs below-average when throwing his fastball. In his five seasons in the majors, his fastball has never been even an average pitch. Last year he tried throwing it fewer times but the results did not change.

Very few pitchers can throw a fastball 50 percent of the time or less and be successful. Those that are able to usually feature a cutter as their second main pitch. Only James Shields used his changeup as his second main pitch, as Davies hopes/needs to do. And even Shields throws his cutter nearly 20 percent of the time the past two seasons. Last year Davies introduced a cutter for the first time in his career and threw it 11.1 percent of the time. By Pitch Type Values it was a neutral pitch. If Davies is to succeed going forward, he will have to throw more cutters and have it be a plus pitch.

The odds are against Davies succeeding, based both on his past history and the lack of success with his fastball. Fantasy players would be better off drafting Tejeda hoping he gets a shot at the rotation and that he can at least curb his walk rate a little bit. While Tejeda is unlikely to be a star, he has a more likely path to success than Davies does.

Saturday the FanGraphs crowd caught the Texas-Cleveland matchup and saw strong performances from starting pitchers Justin Masterson and Brandon McCarthy. Masterson struck out six batters in 3.2 IP while McCarthy had 3 Ks in 3 IP and did not allow a run. Masterson solidified his place as one of the Tribe’s top pitchers while McCarthy helped his chances to land a spot in Texas’ starting rotation.

Over at Mock Draft Central they give an ADP for the top 454 players. McCarthy does not make the list. Some of the pitchers who are on the list ahead of him include Oliver Perez and his 6.82 ERA, Luke Hochevar and his 1.49 WHIP and John Lannan and his 3.88 K/9. McCarthy did not even get a write-up in FanGraphs Second Opinion. I think it is safe to say that he is not on most people’s fantasy radar at this point in time.

McCarthy has two things working against him: his injury history and his gopher ball tendencies. Last year McCarthy had his second stress fracture in his right shoulder and missed nearly three months of the season. He has been on the DL four times in the last three years, including two 60-day stints. In 2009, McCarthy had a 1.20 HR/9, a rate that would have ranked among the worst in the majors if he had enough innings to qualify.

While it remains to be seen if McCarthy can stay healthy, he got better as the season progressed last year in allowing homers. In April, McCarthy surrendered 6 HR in 22 IP. For the rest of the season he gave up 7 HR in 75.1 IP. McCarthy was at his best in September, after he came back from the stress fracture. In his final 33.1 IP, he allowed just 2 HR.

Now this could easily be just the results of a small sample. But one interesting note is McCarthy’s batted ball profile after he returned from the DL. He had a 49.1 GB%, nearly double of his mark in April (26.4%). McCarthy posted a 1.44 GB/FB mark, compared to a 0.92 GB/FB mark overall in 2009 and a 0.82 lifetime mark in the category.

After his return from the disabled list, McCarthy threw fewer fastballs and more of his off-speed pitches. His FB% was 40.3 percent in September, compared to 64.9 percent overall. He threw more of each of his remaining three pitches, with his change seeing the biggest increase. In the final month, McCarthy threw his change 23.6 percent of the time.

With an average FB velocity last year of 88.8 and a Pitch Type Value of -7.6 runs with his heater, McCarthy can afford to throw fewer fastballs. One thing to keep in mind is that there is some confusion about which pitches he actually throws. In the Associated Press story following Saturday’s outing, McCarthy said, “I really wanted to work on the cutter.” Meanwhile, neither FanGraphs nor BrooksBaseball.net show him throwing a cutter last year. Also, there was talk at the beginning of 2009 about McCarthy throwing a “slurve,” which further muddies the water.

Regardless of the terminology used, the bottom line is that McCarthy threw more grounders in the final month of the season last year. It’s too soon to draw any conclusions, but fantasy players should keep in mind that McCarthy may be a different pitcher going forward. If he continues with these ground balls, he could be a candidate for an early waiver wire claim.

The injury to Alex Gordon opens up more playing time this spring for the Royals in the infield. Most of the early speculation has been on Alberto Callaspo and Josh Fields. But one player who should not be counted out is Mike Aviles. After a breakout season in 2008, Aviles crashed last year, mainly due to an injury which required surgery. In Friday’s game that the FanGraphs group caught, Aviles started the game at second base while Callaspo was at third and Fields at first.

Aviles had Tommy John surgery in July. The normal prognosis is for up to a year to come back from the procedure. But Aviles was feeling strong early in camp and there were thoughts he might be ready to play much earlier, possibly even making the Royals as a utility infielder. The plan for the Royals was to give Aviles some early playing time in the Cactus League at second base, where he would not need to use his arm so much to make long throws. And with Gordon going down, it made finding playing time for Aviles even easier.

In his two games so far, Aviles has gone 2-for-3 in each. Additionally, the Royals consider Aviles to be a strong defensive player. Manager Trey Hillman told the Associated Press:

“I asked one of our developmental people if they could identify our most fundamentally sound infielder. Its (sic) Mike Aviles far as textbook fielding a ground ball, approaching a ground ball and doing it right all the time. One of the staff guys grabbed me the other day and said that’s as good as it gets.”

Neither Callaspo nor Betancourt have good defensive reputations. Callaspo put up some good fielding numbers in limited time previously at second base, but was below average last year in 146 games and the perception was even worse than the numbers. Betancourt had a UZR/150 of -23.9 last year, including a -28.6 after being acquired by the Royals.

If Aviles is healthy and has the best defensive option, his playing time might rest with how well he does at the plate. His big year in 2008 was the result of a .357 BABIP. Last year in 36 games he posted just a .223 mark. The projection systems show Aviles with a BABIP ranging from .300-.316 and with an AVG of .270-.284.

If everything goes right, Aviles could produce a .290 AVG with double digit totals in both SB and HR. That could be a nice pot of cheese at the end of your fantasy draft when you are looking to fill your middle infield position.

One other factor to consider is that Chris Getz is on the roster as a contender for playing time at second base. Getz was not overly impressive either offensively or defensively last year, although fantasy leaguers enjoyed his SB output. So, Aviles is potentially vying with both Getz and Callaspo for playing time at second, the position he is likely to play early in the season as he builds up arm strength.

Because of his defensive reputation on the club, Aviles should have a leg up in the competition. And while he may not get a ton of ABs in the spring due to Kansas City spreading them out to all of the contenders, if Aviles proves healthy throughout Cactus League play he has an excellent shot of breaking camp as a starter. And if he does get the playing time, Aviles is a good fantasy option.

A bunch of people from FanGraphs are enjoying Spring Training here in Arizona this week. Thursday we took in the Brewers-Reds game and delighted fans in the right field seats with our special brand of knowledge. In a mostly uneventful game, the Reds brought in a pitcher to seal the deal in the ninth inning that caught us off guard. None of us had ever heard of Logan Ondrusek (although to be fair Marc Hulet was not at the game) and that, combined with the fact that he was put into a game in a save situation and closed the game, made him worthy of a post.

Ondrusek was a 13th-round pick of the Reds in 2005 from a community college in Texas. The first thing that strikes you is that he is tall. MiLB.com lists him at 6’8 but it would not surprise me if he was bigger than that.

After an extended stint as a starter in 2007, Ondrusek made just three starts in 2008 and has been in the bullpen ever since. He seemed to be nothing special until the 2009 season, in which he began the year in the Hi-A Florida State League and ended in Triple-A. Among his three stops, his highest ERA was 1.74 and for the year he had a 1.50 ERA in 72 innings.

The scouting reports show Ondrusek with a low-90s fastball, a changeup and a slider. He did not overpower batters and with borderline shaky command, he had uninspiring results. But in 2009 Ondrusek had a 2.6 BB/9 and he allowed just 1 HR, helping to explain his great leap forward.

With such a miniscule HR rate it is not surprising to see Ondrusek as a ground ball pitcher. Minorleaguesplits.com shows him with a 56.9/15.9/24.1 GB/LD/FB batted ball profile.

Last year Ondrusek worked his way into a closer role. He had zero saves in the FSL but had seven in Double-A and 12 in Triple-A. His big season earned him a trip to the Arizona Fall League, but he struggled in the hitting-friendly loop. Ondrusek allowed 22 hits in 10 innings and had a 13.50 ERA.

It seems unlikely that Ondrusek will be a closer in the majors, given that he does not have a big strikeout rate. But the rise he made last year certainly makes for a good story and the fact that the Reds gave him a chance to close in an early Spring Training game is interesting. Right now he is a name to store away and it would not be surprising if he made it to the majors at some point in the 2010 season.