The Tampa Bay Rays have the best record in baseball at 32-13 and not surprisingly are receiving strong pitching performances from all five guys in their rotation. Here are the fantasy numbers for the Rays’ SP:

Those numbers look very good, but let’s examine two other numbers for each pitcher.

The Rays’ staff goes from being excellent to being less impressive after Shields when we look at these other numbers. Davis goes from a very strong #5 pitcher to one who looks more league average. Out of 51 qualified pitchers in the American League, Davis ranks 47th in K/BB and 46th in xFIP. And in his last four starts, Davis has gone 1-3 with a 5.75 ERA. He has 11 BB and 12 Ks in 20.1 IP and has allowed 4 HR in that span.

Normally, the conclusion might be that Davis is just hitting a rough patch and that he should be given a chance to straighten things out. Especially given his status as a former top prospect and a player who is just 24-years old and holding his own in the toughest division in baseball.

But complicating matters for the Rays is the presence of another top prospect in Triple-A who is having great success in Durham. Jeremy Hellickson, rated the Rays’ number-two prospect by our own Marc Hulet prior to the season, is pitching lights-out in the International League this year. Hellickson is 7-2 with a 2.79 ERA in 10 starts this year.

Hellickson has 12 BB and 60 Ks in 58 IP and has allowed just 2 HR. Monday night ne pitched eight scoreless innings against Pawtucket and allowed just one hit. It really is not much of a surprise that Hellickson is doing well in Triple-A. He got a mid-season promotion to Durham last year and went 6-1 with a 2.51 ERA in 9 starts there in 2009.

In parts of two seasons at Triple-A, Hellickson is 13-3 with a 2.65 ERA. He has allowed 27 BB and notched 130 Ks in 115.1 IP. The only less than glowing marker is his ground ball rate. Minor League Splits shows him with a 31.5 GB% (not counting his start against PAW) this season. However, that might be a sample size issue, as he has a 43.5 GB% in his minor league career and had a 44.2 percent mark in Durham last year.

Listed as 6’1 by MiLB, Hellickson does not have intimidating size. Minor league prospect maven John Sickels compared him to Roy Oswalt in this regard prior to this season. Oswalt came up at age 23, spent eight games in the bullpen, moved into the starting rotation in June and ended up with a 14-3 record his rookie year.

It would not be surprising to see Hellickson on a similar path, even if he does not come close to duplicating Oswalt’s W-L record. He has little left to prove in Triple-A and Hellickson has received in-season promotions in both 2008 and 2009. The big question is how long the Rays can remain patient with Davis. A 5.5 game lead in the division makes it easier to allow Davis to go out and pitch every five days without looking over his shoulder.

Still, do not be surprised if Hellickson gets a promotion soon. The Rays waited until September to promote Davis last year, but he did not dominate at Durham like Hellickson. Davis posted a 7.94 K/9 and a 3.40 BB/9 at Durham in 2009. Hellickson’s numbers are 9.31 and 1.86, respectively, this year. Like Oswalt, the Rays could call up Hellickson to begin his major league career in the bullpen with the idea of moving him into the rotation when needed.

Here are three players with low ownership rates who could pay immediate dividends in fantasy leagues:

John Axford, Milwaukee Brewers (owned in 4% of Yahoo! leagues)

He hit 96.9 on the radar gun in his last outing, struck out the side and picked up a save. That’s enough to make Axford interesting all by itself. But he is also a guy who transferred from Notre Dame to Canisius and went undrafted out of college. Axford spent time with the Yankees but was released after the 2007 season, when he had 45 BB and 67 Ks in 63 IP. The Brewers signed him and he began to improve his control. Last year he walked 38 batters and fanned 89 in 68.1 innings before making his major league debut at age 26. If Axford can keep the walks down, he has a chance to become Milwaukee’s new closer.

Roger Bernadina, Washington Nationals (owned in 1% of Yahoo! leagues)

A fractured ankle ruined Bernadina’s 2009 season after he had a strong campaign in both Double and Triple-A (OBPs near .400) in 2008. He had excellent speed before the injury and has good pop despite his thin frame. Bernadina has been a starter for most of the month of May and has a .295-2-12-7-2 fantasy line in that time frame. At worst he is in a platoon role with Justin Maxwell and as a LHB will get the majority of at-bats. He also can play center if Nyjer Morgan struggles or just needs a day off.

Hisanori Takahashi, New York Mets (owned in 6% of Yahoo! leagues)

A veteran of the Japanese League, Takahashi came to this country this season and began the year in long relief. He did an excellent job in long relief and got a shot in the rotation when the Mets banished Oliver Perez. In his first outing as a starter, Takahashi shut out the Yankees over six innings. He is not overpowering, but he changes speeds well and has a nice 34.6 O-Swing%. Takahashi needs to sharpen his command but he should provide very nice strikeout numbers (10.69 K/9) and a solid ERA for a guy available on the waiver wire.

Here is the latest update to Week Eight 2-start pitchers. Again this list is subject to change going forward.

Pitchers not listed on last update

SFG – Tim Lincecum
STL – Adam Wainwright
LAD – Clayton Kershaw
CHC – Ryan Dempster

Pitchers from Friday no longer scheduled for two starts

STL – Jaime Garcia
CHC – Tom Gorzelanny
SFG – Todd Wellemeyer
LAD – Ramon Ortiz

Lincecum’s velocity is down nearly three miles per hour from 2008 but he has career highs in K/9 (11.01), GB% (48.3), O-Swing% (31.2) and SwStr% (13.4). Not surprisingly, Lincecum also has a career-best 2.35 ERA. Both his FIP and xFIP are slightly higher, but his FIP (2.50) ranks second in the majors while his xFIP (2.72) is the lowest. However, in his last outing Lincecum allowed 5 ER and 5 BB in a no-decision on the road against the Diamondbacks.

In his past four seasons, Wainwright has posted HR/FB rates in single digits. But this year’s mark of 3.6 percent has led to an xFIP a full run above his 2.49 ERA. Regardless, Wainwright is one of the elite pitchers in the game. He uses both a curve and slider effectively and combines a high strikeout rate with a high ground ball rate. Add it all up and Wainwright has thrown a Quality Start in eight of his nine appearances this season.

After getting roughed up in a start against the Brewers, Kershaw has been on fire. In three starts covering 22.1 IP, he has allowed 12 H, 2 ER, 7 BB and has 23 Ks. For the season, Kershaw has a 10.02 K/9 but has really struggled with his walks. His 5.26 BB/9 is the second-worst mark in the league. Kershaw also has a very low 5.6 HR/FB rate, which has led to an xFIP almost a full run above his 3.23 ERA.

Always a good strikeout pitcher, Dempster’s 8.33 K/9 is the highest mark he has ever posted as a starting pitcher. But even with that strikeout rate, a solid GB rate and a .252 BABIP, Dempster is just 2-4 on the season. Last time out he snapped a stretch of four straight losses with a no-decision. Dempster’s HR/FB rate is 11.9% but he has served up 7 HR in his last five games.

Everyone is happy when one of their pitchers is scheduled for two starts in a week. But that is not always a good thing. Here are five pitchers you may be on the fence about (or should be on the fence) putting into your lineup for Week Eight.

Scott Baker – Despite recently touting Baker as an acquisition target, I think he is someone to keep on the bench this week if at all possible. Baker’s struggles are partly due to a high BABIP and this week he faces the Yankees and the Rangers, two of the three best average-hitting teams in the league. I expect regression to take place eventually, just not this week.

Clay Buchholz – He has won four of his past five decisions. Buchholz is outpitching his peripherals, mainly due to a 4.5 HR/FB rate. He squares off this week against the Rays and the Royals, two teams that are below average in the AL in HR. So, ride the hot hand in Buchholz and make sure he is active this week.

Aaron Harang – After getting off to an 0-3 start with an 8.31 ERA, Harang has pitched much better in his past five games. In that time span he has 5 BB and 30 Ks in 30.2 IP. But his ERA is 4.40, due to 4 HR and a .311 average-against. This week Harang faces the Pirates and Astros, who are the bottom two teams in both AVG and HR. Look for Harang to put up Quality Starts and make sure he is in your lineup.

Livan Hernandez – Dave Cameron called him the luckiest man alive earlier this week but the clock is ready to strike midnight for Hernandez. He allowed 11 hits and 8 line drives in his past 12.1 IP, compared to 20 H and 12 LD in his previous 27.1 IP. While he faces two teams that will not be confused for offensive powerhouses in San Francisco and San Diego, Hernandez has to make both of them on the road. We all know the crash is coming and I say it happens this week. Sell him if you can, bench him if you cannot.

Mike Leake – Like Harang, Leake gets home starts against PIT and HOU this week. He has hurled five straight Quality Starts and has gotten his BB trouble from earlier in the season under control. After allowing 12 BB in his first 13.2 IP, Leake has given up just 9 BB in his last 39 IP. He has outpitched his peripherals this year, but if Leake can keep the ball in the park, he has a good shot to keep his QS streak intact.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week Eight are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.

Lester, Danks, Peavy, Shields, Burnett, J. Garcia, Braden, I. Kennedy, Wolf, Davis, Garland, Saunders, A. Sanchez, Chacin, Cecil, Moyer, Gorzelanny, Masterson, Guthrie, Maholm, Meche, Wellemeyer, Paulino, Kawakami, Ortiz, Burress, Dickey.

Check back Sunday night for an update of two-start pitchers.

Now I want to provide some accountability and check in and see how previous recommendations turned out. There needs to be a two-week lag, since last week’s pitchers have not completed their second start yet. So here are Week Six pitchers and how they fared.

Cook – Advised to sit. 3 Ks, 4.50 ERA, 1.667 WHIP (1 start)
LeBlanc – Advised to sit. 7 Ks, 2.31 ERA, 1.286 WHIP (2)
Maine – Advised to start. 10 Ks, 6.55 ERA, 2.091 WHIP (2)
Olsen – Advised to start. 5 Ks, 2.25 ERA, 1.333 WHIP (2)
Westbrook – Advised to start. 2 W, 1.20 ERA, 10 Ks, 1.133 WHIP (2)

Here are seven players for your consideration to either acquire or send packing.

BUY

Scott Baker – Right now his ERA is a poor 4.93 and his WHIP checks in at 1.36, not what owners were expecting when they drafted him in the middle rounds of their fantasy draft. But Baker has a 3.91 K/BB ratio and both his FIP and xFIP show a pitcher who should have an ERA in the 3.65 range. It has been feast or famine for Baker this year, with four Quality Starts and three outings where he gave up 5 ER or more. But this is the same guy who went 26-13 over the two previous seasons with a 3.94 ERA and a 1.184 WHIP. Baker has a .342 BABIP, so there is reason to hope the beatings will taper off once regression kicks in.

Edwin Jackson – Most fantasy owners did not expect a repeat of Jackson’s 2009, when he posted 13 Wins and a 3.62 ERA. But few expected him to be 2-5 with a 6.33 ERA in the third week of May, either. Jackson’s xFIP actually shows him as a better pitcher this year (4.08) than a season ago (4.39). Right now he is being hurt by the gopher ball, having allowed 8 HR in 54 IP. Six of those homers have come in home starts, as Jackson is adjusting to pitching in Chase Field. But Jackson has dramatically increased his GB/FB rate from 0.92 to 1.47 this year. His K/9 rate is up to 7.33 from 6.77 a year ago. If his HR/FB rate moves away from its current 15.1 percent, Jackson could see a huge boost in his fantasy value.

Magglio Ordonez – In 2007 Ordonez combined for 256 R + RBIs thanks in part to a .595 SLG. The following year he was down to 175 R + RBIs and a .494 SLG and last year those marks were 104 and .428, respectively. Ordonez is off to a fast start, one that has him on pace to better 2008’s numbers. There will be owners out there looking to sell high on Ordonez, but neither his BABIP (.323 vs. 318 lifetime) nor HR/FB (12.5 vs. 13.5) are unsustainable. His 1.35 BB/K is the best mark of his career as is his 90.2 Contact%. Since contact rate is one of the quickest stats to stabilize (150 PA), Ordonez’ is likely to maintain his improvement in this area for the remainder of the season.

SELL

Andrew McCutchen – A fast start has McCutchen on pace to shatter pre-season expectations. But if a .376 BABIP raises eyebrows for an unsustainable rate, the Dutton-Carty xBABIP model has McCutchen’s line so far this year producing a .323 BABIP. McCutchen’s power in 2009 in the majors caught a lot of people by surprise but he has matched that production so far this year, too. But it is unlikely that he will maintain an AVG 40-50 points higher than all of the projection systems forecasted for him. McCutchen should not be traded at all costs, but now is an excellent time to cash in on his great start.

Justin Morneau – He currently leads the league in AVG and is third in home runs. Morneau is achieving that with a .404 BABIP and career-high marks in both FB% (52.4) and HR/FB (20.0). A high BABIP usually does not accompany a high FB%. Of the eight batters with a 50 percent or better FB%, only three have a BABIP over .300, so it is very likely that at least one of these marks is going to have to give. Traditionally, Morneau has been an excellent RBI man. But even with his great start in AVG and HR, he is on pace to deliver fewer RBIs than either 2006 or 2008. Like McCutchen, Morneau is another guy who will produce good numbers throughout the 2010 season. But his trade value will never be higher.

David Price – Over-hyped in 2009, Price fell off the radar for a lot of fantasy owners heading into drafts this year. He has rewarded fantasy owners who did not give up on him with a fantastic start, as he is 6-1 with a 1.81 ERA. However, by xFIP, Price is not substantially better in 2010 than he was a season ago, when he finished 10-7 with a 4.42 ERA. This year’s xFIP is 3.98 while it was 4.49 in 2009. I would be a shade more aggressive shopping Price at this point than either of the hitters mentioned above.

HUNCH

Jeff Francis – After missing all of the 2009 season recovering from labrum surgery, Francis is back in the majors with the Rockies. The history of pitchers with this surgery is not encouraging but I like Francis’ chance to buck those odds and beat his RoS ZiPS projection of 4 W, 4.55 ERA, 60 Ks and a 1.41 WHIP.

Here are three players with low ownership rates who could pay immediate dividends in fantasy leagues:

John Ely, Los Angeles Dodgers (owned in 5% of Yahoo! leagues)

After an impressive performance against the Brewers where he allowed 1 ER in 6.2 IP and had 0 BB and 7 Ks, the Dodgers opted to send Ely to the minors. But the gods intervened and Ely returned after Los Angeles placed Charlie Haeger on the disabled list. Ely then went out and hurled a Quality Start in Arizona to pick up his first win in the majors. He throws four pitches and while his fastball is below-average in velocity, it is a plus pitch in results, as are his slider, change and curve. Ely has 17 Ks and 3 BB in 18.2 IP in the majors this year.

Angel Pagan, New York Mets (owned in 5% of Yahoo! leagues)

In his last 18 games, Pagan is batting .311 with 15 R, 11 RBIs and 4 SB. Some of that production may tail off now that he is no longer acting as the team’s leadoff hitter. But Pagan’s continued emergence at the plate, combined with Jeff Francoeur’s continued non-production, makes it likely that he will still have a significant role even when/if Carlos Beltran returns to the lineup.

Max Ramirez, Texas Rangers (owned in 1% of Yahoo! leagues)

A few years ago, Ramirez was thought to be an impact bat but there were questions if he could catch in the majors. He had an injury-plagued year in 2009 but got another chance this year with both Jarrod Saltalamacchia and Taylor Teagarden sent to the minors. Salty is struggling with the yips, unable to throw the ball back to the pitcher. Teagarden was 1-14 in Triple-A and was demoted yet again to Double-A. So Ramirez and Matt Treanor are sharing the catching duties for the time being. Treanor is not much of a threat with the bat, so Ramirez should see plenty of ABs as long as his defense is not too terrible. He made three straight starts May 12-14 and went 5-10 with 2 HR.

Here is the latest update to Week Seven 2-start pitchers. Again this list is subject to change going forward.

Pitchers not listed on last update

NYY – CC Sabathia
DET – Justin Verlander
ARI – Billy Buckner

Pitchers from Friday no longer scheduled for two starts

NYY – Javier Vazquez
COL – Jhoulys Chacin
DET – Jeremy Bonderman
MIL – David Bush
WAS – John Lannan
ARI – Cesar Valdez

Sabathia is coming off his worst start of the season, as he allowed 9 H and 6 ER in 6 IP versus the Tigers last time out. Overall, the strikeouts are down and the homers are up for the big lefty. Sabathia’s 6.41 K/9 is his lowest since 2002 while his 14.3 HR/FB rate is the highest of his career. And the home runs are not due to his home park, as Sabathia has made four of his six starts and allowed six of his 7 HR on the road. His SwStr%, which was 13.9 in 2008, sits at 9.2 here in 2010.

After allowing 10 ER in his first 10 IP this year, Verlander is 4-2 with a 2.56 ERA over his last six starts. In that frame he has 16 BB and 37 Ks in 38.2 IP and has allowed just1 HR. The past three years, Verlander has seen his GB/FB ratio deteriorate, as he has allowed more and more fly balls. But this year the trend has stopped, as his 1.14 GB/FB mark is his best since 2006. Verlander still averages in the mid 90s with his fastball, but he is throwing more off-speed stuff this year. His slider, change and curve have all been more effective pitches so far in 2010 than they were a year ago, when Verlander won 19 games.

Buckner gets the call from Triple-A, where he was 3-1 with a 3.53 ERA at Reno. Surprisingly, Buckner had a 5.6 K/9 after having an 8.4 mark with the same team a season ago. Buckner has 125.1 IP in the majors and has had trouble with the gopher ball. He has a 16.4 HR/FB rate in the majors. Buckner does do a good job of getting ground balls, with a 1.47 GB/FB mark in his time in the majors. He is not overpowering but has a full repertoire of pitches, including a curve, change and cutter.

Everyone is happy when one of their pitchers is scheduled for two starts in a week. But that is not always a good thing. Here are five pitchers you may be on the fence about (or should be on the fence) putting into your lineup for Week Seven.

John Ely – After an impressive performance against the Brewers where he allowed 1 ER in 6.2 IP and had 0 BB and 7 Ks, the Dodgers opted to send Ely to the minors. But the gods intervened and Ely returned after Los Angeles placed Charlie Haeger on the disabled list. Ely then went out and hurled a Quality Start in Arizona to pick up his first win in the majors. He throws four pitches and while his fastball is below-average in velocity, it is a plus pitch in results, as are his slider, change and curve. Ely has 17 Ks and 3 BB in 18.2 IP in the majors this year. He is available on the waiver wire in most leagues and will make an excellent pickup for his two home starts against the Astros and the Tigers.

Hiroki Kuroda – After starting with two very solid seasons in the majors, Kuroda has been even better this year. His GB% is up to 58.6 and his K/9 has increased to 7.04. Kuroda’s O-Swing% is 34.9 and his Contact% is 78.8 percent. And he has won four of his five decisions. It is hard to imagine what else owners want to see from Kuroda before they make him a must-start, but he rides the pine in 37 percent of CBS Sports leagues. Get him into your lineup especially as he goes against two pitchers with ERAs above 5.00 for the year.

Daisuke Matsuzaka – Generally I am bullish on Matsuzaka for the remainder of the 2010 season but I think he should be on the bench this week. The positives are that he has a 2.67 K/BB ratio and a 32.7 O-Swing%, both career-bests. The big negative is that he has a 0.76 GB/FB ratio and is susceptible to the gopher ball. This week he has road starts in Yankee Stadium and Citizens Bank Park, two of the best HR parks in baseball. Do not be discouraged if he has a rough time this week, just be sure he does it on your bench.

Carl Pavano – Benjamin Franklin said that it takes many good deeds to build a reputation and only one bad one to lose it. Pavano lost any good reputation he may have built in his four injury-plagued years with the Yankees. Even after a 14-win season last year, fantasy owners are lukewarm at best towards Pavano. Last Player Picked has his work so far this season as worth $11 in a 12-team mixed league, good for a solid #3 SP. Yet Pavano is owned in less than half of ESPN leagues. It is not an easy week for him, but Pavano deserves to start in all formats.

Mike Pelfrey – After starting the season with four wins and a save in his first five appearances, Pelfrey has struggled in his last three games. In 17 IP, he has a 6.88 ERA and a 1.588 WHIP. Pelfrey has a tough week, with a game in Atlanta and then an Interleague matchup with the Yankees. Pelfrey is 3-5 lifetime against the Braves with a 5.58 ERA and he has a 5.40 ERA against the Yankees in two career appearances. Leave him inactive for this week if you can.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week Seven are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.

Carpenter, J. Johnson, Halladay, F. Hernandez, Greinke, J. Santana, Gallardo, Cain, Weaver, Price, Hughes, Danks, C. Wilson, J. Sanchez, Niemann, Slowey, Vazquez, Beckett, Marcum, Kazmir, Cueto, Carmona, Lowe, Sheets, W. Rodriguez, Wells, Chacin, Latos, G. Gonzalez, Porcello, E. Jackson, Holland, Millwood, Silva, Volstad, Richard, Bailey, Cook, Bonderman, Lohse, Eveland, Duke, Kendrick, Davies, Bergesen, Norris, Bush, Medlen, F. Garcia, Huff, Lannan, Rowland-Smith, Morton, Stammen, C. Valdez.

Check back Sunday night for an update of two-start pitchers.

Now I want to provide some accountability and check in and see how previous recommendations turned out. There needs to be a two-week lag, since last week’s pitchers have not completed their second start yet. So here are Week Five pitchers and how they fared.

Cecil – Advised to start. W, 13 Ks, 2.70 ERA, 0.975 WHIP (2 starts)
Correia – Advised to sit. 4 Ks, 4.50 ERA, 1.000 WHIP (1)
Floyd – Advised to start. 9 Ks, 7.82 ERA, 1.737 WHIP (2)
Garcia – Advised to sit. W, 13 Ks, 1.50 ERA, 1.333 WHIP (2)
Scherzer – Advised to start. 5 Ks, 14.46 ERA, 2.571 WHIP (2)

Here are seven players for your consideration to either acquire or send packing.

BUY

Shin-Soo Choo – The current owner may look at Choo’s .392 BABIP and figure this is as good as it’s going to get, especially since Updated ZiPS projects him to finish with 17 HR and 16 SB. But Choo has always posted ultra-high BABIPs so he may not drop off as far as some might predict. The current ZiPS forecast seems especially pessimistic, considering that he went 20-20 last year and is on a current pace for 22-32.

Chipper Jones – He is very brittle and currently carries an uninspiring .230-2-7-13-2 fantasy line. But Jones is not one to look at things through rose-colored glasses and he considers himself to be seeing the ball good and just experiencing bad luck. “When I’m drawing walks you know I’m seeing the ball good,” Jones told David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. “Everybody points to the RBI, but when there’s not a lot of opportunities you can’t help that.” Jones is 6-for-19 with two doubles, seven walks and one strikeout in his past six games. Health is always a factor but Jones feels good about himself and he has been on a mini hot streak. It could all add up to a nice pickup for a low price, especially if his current owner is concerned about Jones’ current groin injury.

Johan Santana – This marks the sixth straight season that Santana has seen a rise in his xFIP and his K/9 continues to fall, down to 7.56, his worst mark since he was a reliever in 2001. Santana’s average fastball velocity has dipped below 90 for the first time in his career. But so much of Santana’s poor overall numbers this year (velocity excepted) is the result of the horrific outing against the Phillies in which he allowed 4 HR and gave up 10 ER in 3.2 IP. In his other six games, Santana has a 2.61 ERA with 9 BB and 34 Ks in 38 IP. Now, you cannot just throw out starts that you do not like, but you should not panic about one bad outing, either. Check to see if his current owner is doing the latter.

SELL

Tim Hudson – While never a big strikeout pitcher, Hudson generally gave fantasy owners good numbers in the other three categories for SP. But this year his K/9 is down to a dismal 3.45 or nearly half of his lifetime mark. His ERA sits at a nifty 2.64 but both his FIP and xFIP are around two runs per game worse than that. Right now it seems on the surface to be a typical Hudson year where he is good in three categories. But it is unlikely that either his ERA or WHIP will remain this low going forward.

Jeff Niemann – Like Hudson, xFIP paints a much bleaker picture of Niemann’s early-season results than his ERA. Both his FIP and xFIP are nearly identical to 2009, when his ERA was 1.67 higher than his current 2.27 mark. Niemann is throwing his splitter twice as often as last year, and with good results, too. But it seems unlikely that his fine pitching early in 2010 has more to do with the change in his repertoire than Niemann simply being the recipient of good fortune.

Justin Upton – One of the first outfielders off the board in fantasy and likely gone by the second round in most leagues, Upton is off to a poor start. Whenever I recommend to sell a high draft pick not performing well, people comment that now is the worst time to trade him. Obviously, Upton will not be this bad the rest of the season. The key is to get more in return than he will produce the rest of the way. It seems to me his trade value is greater than the .274-20-70 that RoS ZiPS projects for him. In one recent CBS Sports league, he was dealt straight up for Matt Holliday, who seems likely to outperform Upton in AVG, R and RBIs going forward while it should be relatively close in the other two categories.

HUNCH

Nick Swisher – His BABIP is 56 points higher than his career average and his 17.5 HR/FB rate is 0.4 away from his career-best mark. But I predict that Swisher will keep up his strong performance throughout the season and exceed the Updated ZiPS marks of .264-28-94-92-1 at the end of the year.

Here are three players with low ownership rates who could pay immediate dividends in fantasy leagues:

Mike Aviles, Kansas City Royals (owned in 7% of Yahoo! leagues)

In 592 lifetime PA in the majors, Aviles has a .298-13-61-83-9 fantasy line which is outstanding production for a guy to slot in your MI position. Of course, the problem is that Aviles toils for the Royals, who think he fits in behind both Yuniesky Betancourt and Chris Getz in the pecking order and sent him to the minors early in the year. But Aviles has started five of the past six games (and pinch-hit in the other). Eventually talent wins out so expect Aviles to log more playing time than either of those inferior players for the remainder of the season.

Scott Hairston, San Diego Padres (owned in 3% of Yahoo! leagues)

Despite his great production for half a season for the Padres in 2009, Hairston opened the year as a platoon player and was in the lesser half as the right-handed part of the time share with Tony Gwynn Jr. But he has started 10 games since April 28th and has a .294 AVG with 4 HR in that span. RoS ZiPS gives him 14 HR in 337 ABs. If he can stay healthy, Hairston has a chance to exceed that playing time prediction. He can offer a nice power/speed combo but Hairston will need to cut back on his strikeouts, which currently sits at a 35.8 K%, if he wants to improve on his .254 AVG.

Scott Olsen, Washington Nationals (owned in 5% of Yahoo! leagues)

After getting lit up in his first two outings of the season, Olsen is 2-0 in his last three starts, with a 0.44 ERA. Additionally, he has 5 BB and 20 Ks in 20.1 IP in that stretch. Olsen has a little extra zip on his fastball this year, with his average velocity of 89.2 mph a full 1.2 mph higher than it was a year ago. That, along with throwing his fastball less often, has helped make a very poor pitch in 2009 (-17.8 wFB) one that is almost league average (-1.4 wFB) this year. Olsen has been throwing both his slider and change more often in 2010. His slider is a very good pitch and his change is now a plus offering.