FanGraphs Points Leagues: What Hitters Will Be Overrated by Traditional Fantasy Rankings?
Rank the top-10 fantasy hitters from last year, by performance, in your head. Does the list look like this? Here is ESPN’s Player Rater’s Top 11, based on a traditional 5×5 roto league:
1. Carlos Gonzalez (#7)
2. Carl Crawford (#42)
3. Albert Pujols (#2)
4. Joey Votto (#4)
5. Miguel Cabrera (#3)
6. Josh Hamilton (#5)
7. Jose Bautista (#1)
8. Robinson Cano (#6)
9. Hanley Ramirez (#17)
10. Ryan Braun (#37)
11. Juan Pierre (below replacement)
You may quibble here and there (Pierre might seem out of place, for example), but my guess is that the list is reasonably close.
Things change a bit if you were playing using FanGraphs Points. The number in parentheses above is my 2010 rank order of hitters based on FanGraphs Points, which are built on linear weights. That ranking takes into account position, and gives incomplete credit for playing time because DL stints can be made up for with substitutions. It’s not perfect, but it’s a pretty good ranking of value in our system.