Fantasy owners have grown accustomed to plucking surprise fantasy studs off the waiver wire. This year, it was someone like Jean Segura, Josh Donaldson or Michael Cuddyer. On the pitching side, owners fought over guys such as Hisashi Iwakuma and Jose Fernandez. In 2012, though, one of the top waiver wire superstars was veteran Carlos Ruiz.

The Phillies’ catcher was the fourth-ranked catcher in fantasy baseball in 2012. Seemingly out of nowhere, he compiled a .398 wOBA with 16 home runs, and his mere 421 plate appearances was the only thing really keeping him from accruing more value. He was a solid fantasy contributor across the board, minus the obvious dearth of stolen bases.

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A large swath of the sabermetric community had been waiting a severe decline for Matt Cain. He was someone who annually outpitched his peripheral numbers and frustrated some with his success. After all, a guy can’t sustain a .260 BABIP over the course of multiple seasons, and he certainly can’t continue to compile below-average home run rates with such a penchant for allowing fly balls, even if we’re talking about the cavernous AT&T Park.

With a 4.00 ERA in 184.1 innings this season, it appeared the “good luck” had finally expired. His fantasy value experienced a massive decline, going from the 5th-ranked starting pitcher in ESPN leagues (and according to our own Zach Sanders) last year to the 64th-ranked starter in 2013. Even the folks who expected a dropoff probably didn’t expect anything so dramatic. Last winter, anyone who posited that Jose Quintana, Tony Cingrani and Luke Hochevar would be more valuable pitchers at the end of the season would’ve been laughed out of the room.

But here we are. Quintana (56), Cingrani (60) and Hochevar (53) provided more fantasy value than Matt Cain, who was on average drafted amongst the top-ten pitchers in the spring. That’s obviously a season-killer for owners, and it’s a given that his value heading into the 2014 season will be severely depressed.

Should that be a signal to buy low and expect a bounce-back season in 2014, or should his 2013 campaign be viewed as the inevitable dropoff that many have expected for the past half-decade?

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The idea of a Fantasy Baseball MVP has been fascinating to me. In baseball’s true award season, many of us (including myself) lament the invocation of the term “value” because the MVP should rightfully be given to each league’s best player.

In fantasy baseball, though, value is paramount. If you drafted Miguel Cabrera or Mike Trout with the first-overall pick, you clearly acquired a stud. However, it didn’t take much skill to determine Cabrera and Trout would be elite fantasy players, and with the first-overall pick, you’re expected to choose the best player in the game. That’s one of the perks of drafting first.

Furthermore, we can objectively determine in fantasy baseball which player performed at the highest level throughout the season. We know Miguel Cabrera accumulated the most points in ESPN leagues. Chris Davis was the best, according to Zach Sanders’ rankings from earlier today.

So, the notion of best isn’t relevant when it comes to the Fantasy Baseball MVP. It truly boils down to value. Which player provided elite production without costing a high-round draft pick in snake drafts or a large stack of cash in auction leagues? Because that’s how championships are won.

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Coming into the 2013 season, first baseman Anthony Rizzo was considered one of the prime breakout candidates in all of baseball. He was only 23 years old on Opening Day, and he compiled a .349 wOBA with 15 home runs a year ago in 368 plate appearances. Furthermore, if one adds his Triple-A home run total from 2012, he actually launched 38 bombs last season, so it’s not difficult to understand what spawned the enthusiasm.

Rizzo wasn’t able to follow through on the bold predictions. He only hit .233/.323/.419 on the season, and despite the solid 23 home runs, he was barely a top-30 first baseman in ESPN leagues. His .325 wOBA ranked 19th among qualified first basemen, behind uninspiring guys like Nick Swisher, James Loney and Justin Smoak.

Thus, two questions quickly push their way to the forefront: (1) what happened in 2013, and (2) what can fantasy owners expect for 2014?

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Though we haven’t fully closed the books on the 2013 regular season, the vast majority of fantasy leagues have concluded. It was an interesting season for me. I finished no worse than fourth in any of my four leagues, but I wasn’t able to bring home a championship this year. That needs to change in 2014.

More importantly, though, it’s time to reflect on my preseason bold predictions. Let’s see where I pointed fantasy owners in the right direction and where I erred:

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Positional flexibility is always something coveted on fantasy rosters. Players such as Matt Carpenter help optimize roster construction because owners have the opportunity to utilize him where it best benefits his or her team, as Carpenter can be slotted in at first base, second base, third base or even the outfield.

That’s why I find it rather interesting that six of the top eight fantasy catchers also have first base eligibility. Guys like Jonathan Lucroy and Joe Mauer have recently gained the distinction, while Carlos Santana and Victor Martinez serve as examples of catchers who have long carried dual citizenship.

Although I immediately worked under the assumption that having catcher and first base eligibility would be highly beneficial next season, it recently occurred to me to ask whether that even matters. Would an owner willfully hold two catchers on their roster — such as Wilin Rosario and Mike Napoli — with the designs of playing both on an everyday basis while punting the first base position?

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Despite being 33 years old, Athletics outfielder Coco Crisp is putting together his best fantasy season since his time with Cleveland in 2004 and 2005. He swatted his 21st home run of the season last night and is one of only eight players who have stolen at least 19 bases and collected at least 20 home runs.

Interestingly, only one of those players, Ian Desmond, is not an outfielder. But Coco Crisp is probably the most unexpected name on that list. Sure, Will Venable is rather surprising, but he’s more fulfilling what many fantasy owners always hoped he would become. Crisp is wholly different. He’s never hit 20+ home runs in a single season. He’s never posted an ISO north of .165 — and even that came nine seasons ago in 2005.

It feels unsatisfying to argue a player cannot do something again because they’ve never previously accomplished that feat. Obviously, track record matters, and Crisp has 11 full seasons under his belt. That makes the lone 20+ HR season even more of an outlier. But there are some things to like about what Crisp is doing.

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Although it’s been true for each of the last three seasons, many fantasy owners are still adjusting to the fact that offense from the second base position comes at a premium. It’s not about to usurp the shortstop position’s crown for supreme offensive futility, but it’s the only one within shouting distance.

The league’s second basemen have averaged a .304 wOBA in 2013, which is situated squarely between the .306 and .302 wOBAs from 2011 and 2012, respectively. Fantasy-relevant second basemen obviously find themselves with higher wOBAs across the board, but the overall trend remains true. Unless sitting with one of the few studs at the position, owners have had a difficult time securing consistent production with the bat.

Thus, when a rookie second baseman bursts onto the scene and hits a blistering .335/.371/.524 (.388 wOBA) with nine doubles, two triples and six home runs in his first 177 plate appearances, owners start to feel their hearts flutter in their chests. Of course, this is referencing the scorching-hot debut of Scooter Gennett, who is playing everyday for the lowly Milwaukee Brewers.

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Although most of the attention in Anaheim surrounds Mike Trout, there’s another young outfielder who is beginning to dot the fantasy radar.

Most scouts slapped a “fourth outfielder” label on Kole Calhoun since the Angels drafted him in the 8th round of the 2010 Draft. After all, he’s only 5-foot-10 and possesses a corner outfield defensive profile. That places a lot of pressure on his bat to carry that profile, and it’s understandably difficult for shorter players to hit for enough power to do so. However, his mature, well-rounded approach at the plate makes him an attractive bench outfielder who can handle both left and right field (and even a little first base).

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After only pitching a total of 69.2 innings in 2011 and 2012, Jorge de la Rosa has enjoyed a productive bounce-back season in which he’s compiled a 3.31 ERA, and his 16 wins are the second-most in Major League Baseball. Those two statistics have made de la Rosa extremely relevant in standard rotisserie leagues. In fact, he’s been more valuable than Justin Verlander, Gio Gonzalez and Kris Medlen in ESPN leagues, which immediately demands attention.

That value is what makes his 44.6% ownership rate in ESPN leagues so fascinating. He’s widely available on the waiver wire in most leagues, yet he’s been effective all season — including recent starts. The southpaw hasn’t surrendered more than three earned runs in a start since July 29 and has won six-consecutive decisions. Although pitcher wins remain a roll of the dice in many ways, it’s surprising such a stretch would fly under the radar for so many owners, leaving him on the waiver wire collecting fantasy points for no one.

The fantasy baseball community has seemingly decided this level of performance is largely unsustainable, essentially treating him like fellow left-hander Jeff Locke who has similar ownership rates. Unlike Locke, though, de la Rosa hasn’t imploded down the stretch. He continues to find success and has been the 30th-ranked starting pitcher over the last 30 days.

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