It’s been said that the good ones copy and the great ones steal. With that in mind, I’m stealing a cue from Mr. Podhorzer, who looked at a pair of players owned in less than 10% of leagues earlier this week. But since my two fantasy beats this season are Deep-League Waiver Wire and American League Outfielders, I figured, Why not combine the two?
What was that they say about those who steal again?
So you’re just about set for your draft. You’ve ranked players. You’ve jotted down some sleepers. You’ve even oh-so-carefully suggested to your significant other that, hey, it might be a good idea to get out of the house for a while this weekend, say, around the hours that just so happen to coincide with the time you’ll be selecting various real players to populate your fake team with the most clever nickname in all the land.
But before you make any final decisions about outfielders, here are a few strategies to consider. Keep in mind that this applies primarily to very deep mixed leagues, or better yet, AL- and NL-only versions with a minimum of five starting outfielders. In other words, when you’re not going to be able to fill out your roster with Ryan Braun, Carlos Gonzalez, Carl Crawford, Josh Hamilton and Matt Holliday, one or two of these ideas may help you do more with less. After all, unlike most other offensive positions where you only start one player (or occasionally two), there’s a little more room to play with when it comes to mapping out your outfield.
Everyone preaches patience when it comes to drafting pitchers, especially after The Year Of The Pitcher. Well, if you’re in an AL-only league, I submit that you throw that strategy out the window. Owners whose player pools are confined solely to the Junior Circuit realize just how shallow starting pitching is. Aside from having to face better teams as well as designated hitters, both of which negatively impact fantasy categories (i.e. AL: 4.14 ERA, 6.8 K/9 vs. NL: 4.02 ERA; 7.4 K/9), there’s also the simple fact that the AL has two fewer teams, and thus at least 10 fewer starters. Bottom line: Legitimate starters are all the more valuable, and the well runs dry pretty quickly.
Keep that in mind as we look at three arms you’ll have to consider drafting in the same range.
Every year, a number of starting pitchers get drafted higher than they should because of their successful performances the year prior. Call me crazy, but I tend to avoid these pitchers. Why? Because the expected cost outweighs the projected output. Instead, I set my sights on pitchers still on the upswing, and even a few coming off disappointing seasons who are likely to bounce back.
Not every pitcher can be Roy Halladay or CC Sabathia, guys who can actually sustain their peaks across multiple years. But that doesn’t stop owners from latching onto a pitcher following a big season, or even an outlier season, hoping that said pitcher has established a new talent level. In most cases, though, the wave has already crested.
This strategy gets tricky because it requires: 1) distinguishing between pitchers still capable of better and those about to take a step back; and 2) accepting that there are simply some pitchers you won’t own come draft day. The five below fall into that category for me this year.
While most fantasy owners fall in love with players who broke into the elite a year ago (like Carlos Gonzalez and Andrew McCutchen) or get carried away with unearthing the next didn’t-see-that-coming talent, the best way to find cheap value on draft day is to keep tabs on vets whose fantasy reps took a hit following a down year. Like these three NL leftfielders with power-hitting track records.
The act of ranking American League outfielders is best described as an exercise in risk evaluation. Whether you crave risk or shrink from it—or perhaps you prefer a little of both, eh?—there are plenty of options from each end of the spectrum in almost every one of the below tiers. I’ll be your guide this season as we evaluate the men who patrol the green pastures of the junior circuit.
As per usual, these ranks were determined from a compilation of lists submitted by the RotoGraphs crew. Before we get on with the tiers, a few housekeeping points:
1) This list comprises the Top 53 outfielders.
2) To establish continuity, only players who received at least three mentions from our panel of judges are ranked.
3) For the purposes of this project, eligibility requires either 20 games played in the outfield in 2010 or a projected outfield spot in 2011.
Now, onto the tiers.