Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.
I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence. I should also note that I’ve updated the way I’m calculating the park factors for the two new minor league stadiums that the Athletics and Rays are playing in this year; I’m taking the one-year park factors from Statcast and regressing them towards neutral, with the one-year factors increasing in weight as more games are played in those stadiums (those series are still marked in yellow below).
Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.
I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence. I should also note that I’ve updated the way I’m calculating the park factors for the two new minor league stadiums that the Athletics and Rays are playing in this year; I’m taking the one-year park factors from Statcast and regressing them towards neutral, with the one-year factors increasing in weight as more games are played in those stadiums (those series are still marked in yellow below).
Now that we’ve reached May, I’m starting to use in-season data to calculate opponent strength.
The Athletics have a beast of a schedule next week; not only are they playing two of the hottest offenses in baseball, they’re playing in their tiny bandbox in Sacramento. Those games should be extremely high scoring affairs. The Padres also have to face the Yankees next week, in New York to boot, but San Diego then gets to travel to Colorado. The Diamondbacks just barely avoid the double red tags, but I’d still avoid their starters against the Mets and Dodgers.
No team has a double green week, but the Twins get close with series against the struggling Orioles and the Giants at home.
The search for pitching help is never ending. Between injuries and ineffectiveness, fantasy players are always on the lookout for pitchers who are performing well who can provide some reinforcements. Hopefully, these six under-rostered pitchers — three starters and three relievers — can help.
Chad covered Ryan Gusto in his Hot Right Now column yesterday. I mostly agree with his assessment:
“So yes, he has looked good so far. But with only 22.2 IP so far this year, I am more inclined to bet on his track record than his early performance with Houston. Double his walks, double his HR, and how are you feeling? There’s nothing wrong with riding the hot streak. That could both net you some short-term gains and give you time to see if that control and HR suppression are legit. But there are other SP out there I am more interested in right now.”
One thing I’d like to add is that Stuff+ really likes Gusto. All three of his fastballs are above league average by that metric and so is his slider. Stuff+ isn’t as enamored with his changeup but that pitch is returning a 37.5% whiff rate which is above average for the pitch type. Sure, the minor league track record isn’t there, but it’s possible Gusto has taken a pretty significant step forward in his development.
I do need to advise some caution because of the contact quality issues Chad mentioned and also because the Astros will likely activate Lance McCullers Jr. from the IL within a few weeks and possibly Spencer Arrighetti a few more weeks after that. It’s very likely Gusto will be relegated to the bullpen once Houston’s starting rotation gets a little more healthy. So, yes, ride the hot hand while you can, but don’t expect Gusto to be a long-term solution for your pitching staff.
I recommended Jose Quintana in my last Ottoneu Drip and I’m honestly shocked he hasn’t been rostered more. All he’s done since that write up is make three fantastic starts, allowing just three runs total. His strikeout-to-walk ratio isn’t great and it seems like he’s relying on a lot of guile to get by, but the results speak for themselves.
The injury to Justin Steele forced the Cubs to add Colin Rea to their starting rotation a few weeks ago. Rea muddled through the last two years as an innings eating member of the Brewers rotation, but he has made three solid starts for the Cubs against some really impressive opponents. Against the Dodgers, Diamondbacks, and Phillies, he’s allowed just two runs in 13.1 innings while striking out 17. That’s enough for me to take notice.
The biggest difference is a four-seam that he’s throwing more than half the time at the expense of his sinker. His repertoire is still deep — six pitches strong — but he’s really emphasized the heater. He’s throwing it about a tick harder than last year with a little more rise and a little more cut and it’s returning a 25% whiff rate and a .334 xwOBA, both above average marks for a four-seamer. He’s also dropped his arm angle by about five degrees which has had a positive effect on the horizontal movement of all of his pitches. The wide pitch mix, arm angle change, and an improved fastball makes him a pretty interesting pick up, though I might wait to see how he does in a few more starts before rushing out to add him.
Chad also covered Will Vest in his article yesterday and I don’t really have much more to add. If you’re speculating on saves in Detroit’s bullpen, Vest is as good an investment as any other high leverage option in that ‘pen.
Reed Garrett had a mini-little breakout last summer before burning out in August. He’s still making high-leverage appearances for the Mets this year and he’s been pretty good. The strikeout rate isn’t as lofty as it was last year, but his walk rate is down and he’s only allowed a single unearned run.
Shelby Miller was finally healthy last year but his stint in Detroit’s bullpen of death could have gone better. He latched on with the Diamondbacks this year and is throwing a little harder and added a sweeper to his repertoire. He, too, has only allowed a single unearned run in 11 appearances for the Snakes and he’s already beginning to work some high leverage opportunities for them.
Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.
I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence. To start the season, I’ll be relying on projected team wOBA until there’s sufficient in-season data to start calculating these matchup ratings. I should also note that the two new minor league stadiums that the Athletics and Rays are playing in this year currently have neutral park factors in my calculations, though both should play like hitters parks (those series are marked in yellow below).
They’re not marked in red above, but I’d be weary of starting anyone from the Braves or Diamondbacks next week. Atlanta travels to Colorado which makes Chris Sale’s scheduled start a big risk and then the team returns home to host the Dodgers. Meanwhile, Arizona heads out on an East Coast road trip through New York and Philadelphia and neither Corbin Burnes or Zac Gallen have been all that impressive to start this season.
The Astros look to be the only team with a pair of easier matchups next week, at home against the Tigers and on the road against the White Sox. Ronel Blanco could be lined up for a double-start week but that could be in flux if Houston decides to activate Lance McCullers Jr. next weekend.
Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.
I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence. To start the season, I’ll be relying on projected team wOBA until there’s sufficient in-season data to start calculating these matchup ratings. I should also note that the two new minor league stadiums that the Athletics and Rays are playing in this year currently have neutral park factors in my calculations, though both should play like hitters parks (those series are marked in yellow below).
The Dodgers and Cubs gain an extra day off next week to offset their early start in Japan in March. That means they’ll only play five games, though the Dodgers will need to call up a spot starter anyway after Bobby Miller was optioned after his own spot start on Thursday. Roster Resource has Matt Sauer listed as the starter on Wednesday but it’s possible Los Angeles will activate Tony Gonsolin for that start instead.
After spending most of the month rehabbing, we’ll probably see the season debuts of Ranger Suárez, Brayan Bello, Tobias Myers, and Lance McCullers Jr. (!) next week and Jack Leiter and Pablo López are on track to be activated from their short stints on the IL too.
The wave of early season injuries has hit hard and your fantasy baseball team is more than likely feeling the effects. One of my Ottoneu teams has eight pitchers currently on the IL and I dropped two other injured pitchers in my desperate search for reinforcements. Hopefully, these eight under-rostered pitchers — four starters and four relievers — can help you in your own search for pitching help.
Tyler Mahle is finally healthy after working back from Tommy John surgery in 2023 and a shoulder injury last year. At his peak, he was a strikeout generating machine, producing a 27.1% strikeout rate across three seasons from 2020–22. He hasn’t reached that same level of effectiveness yet, but his first four starts this year have been promising. So far, he’s allowed just two earned runs and eight hits across 19.2 innings, and it seems like the command issues that limited him to just 1.2 innings in his first start are behind him. The velocity on his four-seamer hasn’t returned all the way — and it might not — but he’s getting more induced vertical movement on the pitch than ever before. Opposing batters aren’t swinging and missing against his secondary pitches yet, but the whiff rate on his heater 36.2% of the time! He’s gotten a bit lucky in the batted ball department so I’m sure some regression is coming, but as long as he’s healthy, he looks like he can be a useful starter in all fantasy formats.
Andrew Heaney has been a frequent recommendation in this column over the last few years. He’s the type of pitcher who has hot streaks where he looks incredibly impressive for a time but he isn’t consistent enough to deserve a high roster rate. He’s started off this year on a heater, allowing six runs across 18 innings in his first three starts with a phenomenal 20.0% K-BB%. He’s adjusted his repertoire to feature three different variations of his sweeping breaking ball — Statcast classifies them as a curveball, slider, and slow curve but they’re all generally the same shape with different velocities. He’s also added a sinker to his mix which gives him another weapon to keep batters off his four-seamer. These adjustments to his arsenal have my attention and I’m interested to see if they can help him reduce the amount of hard contact he allows off his heater.
After struggling in the starting rotation for a season and half, Matthew Liberatore found some success pitching out of the bullpen late last year. The Cardinals moved him back to the rotation to start this year and his first three starts of the season have been fantastic from a peripherals standpoint even if the actual run prevention hasn’t been up to snuff. He’s struck out 18 and walked just one in 18.1 innings and he’s managed to work around the platoon issues that have been a problem for him throughout his career. You can chalk that up to a greater emphasis on his changeup and cutter and better command of his entire repertoire.
After signing late in the spring, the Brewers called up Jose Quintana to make his season debut last week and he held the potent Diamondbacks offense scoreless over seven innings. At 36 years old, his best years are probably behind him, but he’s been a useful innings eater for a few years now. One thing to note: he threw his sinker more than half the time in his first start and more than half the balls in play off him were on the ground. Something to keep an eye on if you’re looking to add him.
Many teams are still sorting through the pecking order in their bullpens as they figure out which guys they can trust with high leverage opportunities. The four relievers listed above aren’t necessarily pitching in the ninth or eighth inning, but their peripherals are so good that they could find themselves in those spots sooner rather than later.
Randy Rodríguez has struck out more than 40% of the batters he’s faced so far this season and the Giants are starting to give him more and more high leverage work as a result. Tyler Rogers has been their long-time setup man but Rodríguez’s high-octane stuff fits the role a lot better.
After the Astros traded away Ryan Pressley this offseason, a spot towards the back of their bullpen opened up. Bryan King has quickly filled that opening by also striking out more than 40% of the batters he’s faced. As a left-hander, he’ll likely get high-leverage work when facing pockets of left-handed batters in the late innings, giving him some specific usage patterns.
The Cardinals didn’t really have many good setup options in front of their All-Star closer Ryan Helsley. In steps Phil Maton. He quickly grabbed the eighth inning role in St. Louis and doesn’t really have many competitors for the role.
Injuries wrecked Gabe Speier’s season last year but he’s healthy and firing bullets at the back of the Mariners’ ‘pen. Like King, Speier should see some specific usage patterns as a left-handed reliever and the impending return of Matt Brash could see him pushed down the pecking order in a few weeks.
Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.
I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence. To start the season, I’ll be relying on projected team wOBA until there’s sufficient in-season data to start calculating these matchup ratings. I should also note that the two new minor league stadiums that the Athletics and Rays are playing in this year currently have neutral park factors in my calculations, though both should play like hitters parks (those series are marked in yellow below).
The Orioles are the only team with two easier matchups next week, but unfortunately, their rotation is a bit up in the air with the injury to Zack Eflin. I don’t really trust any of their other starters, even against weaker opponents at home.
The two Florida teams pull some pretty tough opponents next week. The Marlins host the Diamondbacks and then head to Philadelphia while the Rays host the Red Sox and Yankees. It’s still too early to put much stock in the early park factors for George M. Steinbrenner Field, but Statcast lists its current park factor as 92, though I wonder if that’s more to do with the weather than the actual park dimensions.
Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.
I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence. To start the season, I’ll be relying on projected team wOBA until there’s sufficient in-season data to start calculating these matchup ratings. I should also note that the two new minor league stadiums that the Athletics and Rays are playing in this year currently have neutral park factors in my calculations, though both should play like hitters parks (those series are marked in yellow below).
The toughest schedule next week might belong to the Brewers who travel to the thin air of Colorado and then to Arizona to face the potent D-Backs lineup. Their rotation is a mess anyway with Freddy Peralta and Nestor Cortes essentially the only two pitchers you’d even consider starting, and luckily enough, they’re both scheduled to pitch in Coors Field next week.
There isn’t a single team with two great matchups next week, though the Yankees come close with a series in Detroit and then a home series against the Giants.
Welcome back to the Ottoneu Drip, a twice-monthly column dedicated to identifying under-rostered pitchers in Ottoneu leagues who might be worth a second look. I went back through the archives from last year and correctly identified Spencer Arrighetti, Mitchell Parker, Tobias Myers, Kris Bubic, Hunter Gaddis, Porter Hodge, and Luke Weaver as clear wins among a host of other short-term value plays. Let’s not get hung up on some of the misses…
Anyway, since we’ve only got a weekend’s worth of games in the bag, I decided I’d look at some of the standout starts from Opening Weekend to see if any of these under-rostered pitchers are worth rostering to start the season. I’ll give some pretty brief analysis since we’re only talking about a single start, but some of these starters might show up again in this column later on this season — if they’re not rostered at a higher rate before then.
Cade Povich – vBOS, 4.1 IP, 29.1 points
Povich looked pretty good against the potent Red Sox offense, though he couldn’t complete the fifth frame after throwing 94 pitches to get 13 outs. The good news is that eight of those outs were strikeouts and he earned five whiffs on 10 swings against his curveball. Povich had a solid spring training and brought his swing-and-miss stuff with him into his first start of the season. He’ll need to work on his pitch efficiency if he wants to keep his spot in the rotation once some of the rest of Baltimore’s starters get healthy.
Jordan Hicks – @HOU, 6 IP, 47.8 points
Hicks was brilliant against the Astros on Monday, allowing just a single hit and two walks to go along with six strikeouts. The most encouraging thing was the 98 mph average on his sinker on the night. That’s three and a half ticks higher than where that pitch was sitting last year and that kind of velocity jump is a really good sign for Hicks’s health. His sweeper was also sitting more than two mph higher and it returned a 50% whiff rate on the night. The big concern with Hicks’s transition to the rotation last year was his ability to maintain his high velocity he was known for as a reliever. If he’s sitting 98 mph across six innings without a drop off towards the end of his outing, that’s very intriguing.
Mitchell Parker – vPHI, 6.1 IP, 32.7 points
Parker worked around a very active Phillies lineup on Sunday and managed to hold them scoreless over 6.1 innings. He had spurts of usefulness last year and this start just reminds us that his solid command and deep repertoire can be effective if it’s all working together for him. He could be worth a flyer if you’re willing to put up with some of the rough starts while avoiding some of the tougher matchups.
Zack Littell – vCOL, 6 IP, 48.0 points
Chad already covered Littell in his Hot Right Now post yesterday but I’ll just add that Littell, like Parker, was valuable in spurts last year with the same kind of kitchen sink approach. It’s not an exciting profile, but their kind of unexciting bulk innings can be useful in Ottoneu where reaching the innings threshold is probably the easiest way to maximize your total points in the format.
JP Sears – @SEA, 6.2 IP, 38.0 points
Sears has always had a decent strikeout-to-walk ratio which has made him an intriguing undervalued player in Ottoneu. Of course, he’s also prone to allow a ridiculous amount of home runs which has always crashed his value in the format. He did allow a single homer in his start in Seattle but he also kept 50% of his batted balls on the ground which is a new wrinkle. If he suddenly figured out how to increase his groundball rate even slightly from his career norms, he might also be able to cut down on the number of batted balls flying over the fence. Something worth monitoring.
Martín Pérez – vMIN, 6 IP, 50.4 points
Pérez no-hit the Twins for six innings in his debut with the White Sox but the most surprising stat from that outing were the nine strikeouts he racked up. He’s never really had swing-and-miss stuff, but he got seven whiffs on 11 swings with his changeup on Monday. He’s not worth rostering yet — and probably won’t be — but keep an eye on his strikeout rate and his home run rate. He’s not that far removed from a 4.93 P/IP season in 2022.
Kyle Freeland – @TBR, 6 IP, 53.2 points Germán Márquez – @PHI, 6 IP, 42.0 points
It’s always hard to roster Rockies pitchers, especially in Ottoneu where home runs really trash a pitcher’s value. Freeland cruised through six innings against the Rays on Opening Day, striking out seven on just 67 pitches. He was super aggressive in the zone and Tampa obliged by swinging at nearly everything and had only two hits and a bunch of whiffs to show for it. Márquez’s start against the Phillies was a little more interesting. He’s essentially the only Colorado pitcher who has been worth rostering over the last few seasons, though he missed a ton of time the last two years thanks to Tommy John surgery. He was fantastic in Philadelphia on Monday; his velocity was up and he earned 10 whiffs against the potent Phillies lineup. I wouldn’t rush to go out and add Márquez, but he could be an interesting add if he can keep this up and there’s always the possibility Colorado trades him midseason.
Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.
I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence. To start the season, I’ll be relying on projected team wOBA until there’s sufficient in-season data to start calculating these matchup ratings. I should also note that the two new minor league stadiums that the Athletics and Rays are playing in this year currently have neutral park factors in my calculations, though both should play like hitters parks.
First, a reminder that the first week of Ottoneu head-to-head leagues ends on March 30, which means you have one weekend to hit your games started cap. That means you’ve got a very short window to figure out which starters to use over the next four days, and you may want to use some of the riskier pitchers on your roster just to hit the cap. The table below has my sit/start recommendations for the weekend and then there’s a second table below for the first normal week.
These first few weeks of the season have some awkward off days to give teams a buffer for any early season rainouts. That, combined with some still unsettled rosters, means you should definitely pay attention to the announced starters for each game, make note of any rotation shuffling, and have a backup plan just in case one of your starters misses a start.
The Mariners have an extremely easy schedule to start the season, hosting the A’s and Tigers before heading to San Francisco next weekend. All of their starters are usually must starts, but even with George Kirby on the IL to start the season, giving Emerson Hancock some consideration might be worthwhile if you need a two-start pitcher next week.
No team has three tough matchups during this first week and a half, but the Dodgers and Marlins have a pair of them next week. Los Angeles hosts the Braves before heading to Philadelphia while Miami hosts the Mets before traveling to Atlanta.
