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Ottoneu Drip: Finding Under-rostered Pitchers: June 10, 2024

Now that we’re more than two months into the season, we can do a bit of digging to see if we can find pitchers who have improved from month-to-month, specifically looking at Stuff+ since it’s pretty reactionary to changes in a pitcher’s repertoire. Here’s a handful of pitchers who are rostered in under 50% of all Ottoneu leagues who could be nice pickups if you’re looking for an option to fill in for an injured starter or looking for another bullpen piece.

Under-rostered Starting Pitchers, Last 3 Starts
Player Team IP FIP K-BB% Stuff+ Apr Stuff+ May & Jun Pts/IP Roster%
JP Sears OAK 19 2.94 12.0% 106 96 6.11 43.8%
Spencer Arrighetti HOU 14 3.51 16.4% 67 87 5.24 30.0%
Albert Suarez BAL 14 2.51 12.3% 86 88 6.00 24.7%
Joey Estes OAK 18.1 1.90 20.9% N/A 101 7.23 8.8%
Mitch Spence OAK 18.1 2.39 11.6% 101 102 6.02 5.6%

There are three starters from Oakland listed above which is a bit of a surprise. JP Sears is the most recognizable of that trio as he’s enjoyed spurts of success over the last two seasons. His downfall has been a particularly bad home run problem — something that particularly hurts his value in Ottoneu. In an effort to curtail those long ball woes, he’s adjusted his pitch mix to feature his sweeper as his primary pitch while also increasing the usage of his sinker to try and generate more contact on the ground. His flat four-seam fastball will always encourage fly ball contact but he generates the majority of his swings-and-misses with that pitch so he needs to strike a balance between whiffs and contact management. Recently, he’s been able to thread that needle; over his last three starts, he’s allowed just seven runs in 19 innings while running a pretty good 2.80 strikeout-to-walk ratio, and most importantly, keeping the ball in the park.

The other two Oakland starters are a bit more unproven. Mitch Spence was a rule-5 pick this offseason and is getting a chance to prove himself in the rotation over the last few weeks or so. Across his first five starts in the majors, he’s allowed just nine runs in 26 innings and is running a solid 3.00 strikeout-to-walk ratio out of the rotation. His underlying Stuff+ metrics look pretty decent, with his slider standing out in particular. He’s also running a groundball rate over 50% which gives him a little more value in Ottoneu if he can continue avoiding the long ball.

Pressed into the rotation for the same reasons Spence was, Joey Estes is making the most of it as well. A clunker of a start against the Astros back on May 16 is weighing heavily on his results, but outside of that ugly outing in Houston, he’s allowed six runs in 23.1 innings in his other four starts with a great strikeout-to-walk ratio. Stuff+ also loves his slider and cutter and his command of his four-pitch mix has been outstanding so far.

Spencer Arrighetti has taken a while to acclimate to the big leagues but he’s been on a pretty good run of starts recently. He’s allowed four runs across his last 14 innings with 19 strikeouts. His biggest issue is his lack of command; his walk rate is pretty high and he’s allowed at least two free passes in each of his starts this year. His Stuff+ scores have improved pretty dramatically from the first month of the season, with most of the improvements stemming from his fastballs. He’s in the same zone as Sears where his heaters get crushed when batters put them in play, but he’s also generating a significant number of whiffs with the pitch. Right now, he’s found that balance between earning swings-and-misses while also avoiding too much hard contact.

With injuries decimating the Orioles rotation, Albert Suárez 수아레즈 is getting another shot as a starter. So far, he’s allowed just seven runs in 29.1 innings out of the rotation. All the things I said about him back on April 23 still hold true:

“His calling card is a mid-90s fastball with plenty of carry that he can command at the top of the zone. Batters have swung and missed on nearly 20% of the heater’s he’s thrown in his two starts so far. That’s a ridiculous whiff rate, especially for a fastball. His repertoire is rounded out with a changeup and cutter, both of which are returning decent results so far.”

The ridiculous whiff rate on his fastball has fallen to merely above average with more exposure to big league hitters, but he’s still putting up solid results anyway. His ceiling might not be as high as expected based on his first three starts of the year, but he’s a solid fill-in starter who can provide quality innings for your team.


Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner: June 10–16

Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence.

June 10–16
Team Series 1 Matchup Series 2 Matchup Start Maybe Risky Sit
ARI LAA (156) CHW (170) Brandon Pfaadt Ryne Nelson Jordan Montgomery (x2), Slade Cecconi
ATL @BAL (59) TBR (117) Chris Sale, Max Fried Reynaldo López, Charlie Morton Spencer Schwellenbach (x2)
BAL ATL (130) PHI (98) Corbin Burnes (x2), Kyle Bradish, Grayson Rodriguez Albert Suárez 수아레즈 (x2), Cole Irvin
BOS PHI (80) NYY (35) Tanner Houck Kutter Crawford (x2), Nick Pivetta Cooper Criswell, Brayan Bello
CHC @TBR (137) STL (89) Javier Assad, Ben Brown, Shota Imanaga Jameson Taillon, Justin Steele Jordan Wicks (?)
CHW @SEA (150) @ARI (115) Erick Fedde 페디 (x2), Garrett Crochet Jake Woodford (x2) Nick Nastrini, Chris Flexen 플렉센
CIN CLE (30) @MIL (43) Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo Nick Martinez, Andrew Abbott, Frankie Montas
CLE @CIN (41) @TOR (76) Tanner Bibee Ben Lively 라이블리 Triston McKenzie, Logan Allen, Carlos Carrasco
COL @MIN (117) PIT (98) Cal Quantrill Austin Gomber, Ryan Feltner Dakota Hudson (x2), Ty Blach
DET WSN (163) @HOU (76) Jack Flaherty (vWSN), Reese Olson, Tarik Skubal Jack Flaherty (@HOU) Kenta Maeda, Casey Mize
HOU @SFG (135) DET (100) Ronel Blanco, Framber Valdez Spencer Arrighetti (x2), Justin Verlander Hunter Brown
KCR NYY (65) @LAD (28) Seth Lugo (x2), Cole Ragans Brady Singer (x2), Alec Marsh Daniel Lynch IV
LAA @ARI (115) @SFG (135) Patrick Sandoval, José Soriano (@SFG) José Soriano (@ARI) Tyler Anderson Griffin Canning, José Suarez
LAD TEX (89) KCR (74) Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Tyler Glasnow Walker Buehler, Bobby Miller (?), Gavin Stone James Paxton
MIA @NYM (106) @WSN (117) Jesús Luzardo (x2), Braxton Garrett, Ryan Weathers Roddery Muñoz, Trevor Rogers
MIL TOR (65) CIN (41) Freddy Peralta Aaron Ashby (x2), Tobias Myers, Bryse Wilson, Colin Rea
MIN COL (124) OAK (128) Pablo López (x2), Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober Chris Paddack (x2), Simeon Woods Richardson
NYM MIA (154) SDP (78) Tylor Megill (vMIA), Luis Severino David Peterson, Sean Manaea, Tylor Megill (vSDP) Jose Quintana
NYY @KCR (78) @BOS (80) Nestor Cortes, Luis Gil Carlos Rodón (x2), Marcus Stroman (x2) Cody Poteet
OAK @SDP (117) @MIN (117) Joey Estes (x2), JP Sears (x2) Luis Medina, Mitch Spence Hogan Harris
PHI @BOS (80) @BAL (13) Zack Wheeler (x2), Aaron Nola Cristopher Sánchez, Ranger Suárez Taijuan Walker
PIT @STL (102) @COL (46) Paul Skenes (@STL) Mitch Keller Bailey Falter, Jared Jones, Paul Skenes (@COL) Luis L. Ortiz
SDP OAK (124) @NYM (106) Dylan Cease (x2) Michael King, Matt Waldron Randy Vásquez Adam Mazur
SEA CHW (148) TEX (111) Logan Gilbert (x2), Bryan Woo (x2), Bryce Miller, Luis Castillo, George Kirby
SFG HOU (163) LAA (167) Jordan Hicks, Logan Webb Kyle Harrison (x2) Keaton Winn (?) Spencer Howard
STL PIT (148) @CHC (100) Sonny Gray, Lance Lynn Kyle Gibson Miles Mikolas (x2) Andre Pallante
TBR CHC (130) @ATL (109) Ryan Pepiot (x2), Zach Eflin (x2), Taj Bradley, Zack Littell Aaron Civale
TEX @LAD (28) @SEA (150) Nathan Eovaldi (@SEA) Nathan Eovaldi (@LAD), Andrew Heaney, Jon Gray (?) Michael Lorenzen Dane Dunning
TOR @MIL (43) CLE (43) Yusei Kikuchi Kevin Gausman José Berríos (x2), Chris Bassitt Bowden Francis
WSN @DET (128) MIA (130) MacKenzie Gore Mitchell Parker, Jake Irvin Patrick Corbin (x2), DJ Herz

A few general schedule notes:

  • It’s pretty surprising to see the matchups against the Astros and the Braves highlighted in blue above (indicating that they’re an easier matchup). Both of these potent lineups are mired in pretty significant slumps — Atlanta has posted a .286 wOBA over the last 14 days and the Astros aren’t much better at .288 — and they both struggle to produce on the road. That means that the Giants and Orioles have a sneakily decent matchup against these two ball clubs you’d normally want to avoid.
  • Speaking of San Francisco, they’ve got a homestand next week against the aforementioned Astros and then the hapless Angels. The Diamondbacks also look like they have a pair of easier matchups lined up next week; they host the Angels and White Sox and could potentially welcome back Zac Gallen from the IL if his rehab goes quickly.
  • There are a bunch of teams with two tough matchups next week. The Royals probably have the most difficult pair of opponents in the Yankees and Dodgers and I’m fading every Kansas City pitcher, even Cole Ragans in LA. The Blue Jays, Brewers, and Reds each have hot hitting opponents on the docket too and you’d probably be better off avoiding having any pitchers from those teams in your lineups next week.

Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner: June 3–9

Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence.

June 3–9
Team Series 1 Matchup Series 2 Matchup Start Maybe Risky Sit
ARI SFG (82) @SDP (133) Jordan Montgomery, Brandon Pfaadt Ryne Nelson (x2), Slade Cecconi (x2), Blake Walston
ATL @BOS (91) @WSN (108) Max Fried (x2), Reynaldo López, Chris Sale Charlie Morton Spencer Schwellenbach
BAL @TOR (56) @TBR (168) Grayson Rodriguez (x2), Corbin Burnes (x2), Kyle Bradish, Cole Irvin Albert Suárez 수아레즈
BOS ATL (96) @CHW (136) Kutter Crawford (x2), Tanner Houck Nick Pivetta, Cooper Criswell, Brayan Bello
CHC CHW (173) @CIN (98) Shota Imanaga (x2) Jameson Taillon, Javier Assad, Justin Steele, Ben Brown
CHW @CHC (145) BOS (33) Garrett Crochet Erick Fedde 페디 Jake Woodford (x2), Chris Flexen 플렉센, Nick Nastrini
CIN @COL (44) CHC (115) Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo Andrew Abbott (vCHC), Frankie Montas (vCHC) Andrew Abbott (@COL), Frankie Montas (@COL), Graham Ashcraft
CLE KCR (87) @MIA (150) Ben Lively 라이블리 Tanner Bibee, Triston McKenzie (@MIA) Triston McKenzie (vKCR), Logan Allen, Carlos Carrasco (?)
COL CIN (115) @STL (94) Ryan Feltner (x2), Cal Quantrill, Austin Gomber Ty Blach (x2), Dakota Hudson
DET @TEX (115) MIL (126) Tarik Skubal (x2), Jack Flaherty, Reese Olson Casey Mize Kenta Maeda
HOU STL (68) @LAA (63) Framber Valdez Justin Verlander (x2), Ronel Blanco Spencer Arrighetti, Hunter Brown
KCR @CLE (58) SEA (157) Cole Ragans, Seth Lugo (vSEA) Seth Lugo (@CLE), Brady Singer, Michael Wacha, Alec Marsh
LAA SDP (56) HOU (82) Tyler Anderson (x2), Patrick Sandoval, José Soriano, Reid Detmers Griffin Canning
LAD @PIT (147) @NYY (30) Tyler Glasnow (@PIT), Walker Buehler Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Tyler Glasnow (@NYY) James Paxton, Bobby Miller (?)
MIA TBR (180) CLE (98) Jesús Luzardo, Braxton Garrett Ryan Weathers Sixto Sánchez, Trevor Rogers
MIL @PHI (42) @DET (117) Robert Gasser, Freddy Peralta Colin Rea, Joe Ross Bryse Wilson, Tobias Myers
MIN @NYY (30) @PIT (147) Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober (@PIT) Bailey Ober (@NYY), Pablo López, Simeon Woods Richardson Chris Paddack
NYM @WSN (108) PHI (70) Christian Scott Luis Severino, Sean Manaea Jose Quintana, David Peterson
NYY MIN (98) LAD (56) Luis Gil (x2) Carlos Rodón, Marcus Semien, Nestor Cortes Cody Poteet
OAK SEA (159) TOR (108) Joey Estes (vSEA) Hogan Harris, JP Sears, Mitch Spence, Joey Estes (vTOR) Aaron Brooks 브룩스
PHI MIL (75) @NYM (112) Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola Cristopher Sánchez, Ranger Suárez Taijuan Walker
PIT LAD (82) MIN (124) Jared Jones (vMIN) Jared Jones (vLAD), Paul Skenes, Mitch Keller Bailey Falter Quinn Priester
SDP @LAA (63) ARI (129) Yu Darvish (x2), Dylan Cease, Joe Musgrove, Michael King, Matt Waldron (vARI) Matt Waldron (@LAA)
SEA @OAK (138) @KCR (65) George Kirby (x2), Logan Gilbert, Bryan Woo, Luis Castillo Bryce Miller
SFG @ARI (152) @TEX (115) Jordan Hicks, Logan Webb Kyle Harrison, Blake Snell Spencer Howard (x2)
STL @HOU (44) COL (136) Sonny Gray Lance Lynn, Kyle Gibson (vCOL) Kyle Gibson (@HOU), Miles Mikolas Andre Pallante (x2)
TBR @MIA (150) BAL (98) Ryan Pepiot, Zack Littell Aaron Civale, Taj Bradley Tyler Alexander
TEX DET (84) SFG (54) Nathan Eovaldi (x2) Dane Dunning, Andrew Heaney, Michael Lorenzen José Ureña
TOR BAL (56) @OAK (138) Kevin Gausman (x2), Yusei Kikuchi José Berríos, Chris Bassitt
WSN NYM (65) ATL (82) MacKenzie Gore (x2) Trevor Williams (x2), Mitchell Parker, Jake Irvin Patrick Corbin
  • The Mets and Phillies head across the Atlantic next weekend for a two game series played in London Stadium. Based on the limited park factors from the previous two series played in England, I’d recommend sitting your starters for both teams. The two games should be pretty high scoring affairs.
  • It looks like the Astros have a tough couple of matchups against the Cardinals and the Angels next week. You wouldn’t think that those two teams have high octane offenses, but St. Louis has been playing extremely well recently and Angel Stadium is a particularly easy place to knock balls over the fence. Framber Valdez is probably the only pitcher in their rotation who is matchup proof.

Ottoneu Drip: Finding Under-rostered Pitchers: May 30, 2024

The search for competent pitching is never ending, especially in a year where injuries have taken their toll on so many of the top arms in the game. Here’s a handful of pitchers who are rostered in under 60% of all Ottoneu leagues who could be nice pickups if you’re looking for an option to fill in for an injured starter or looking for another bullpen piece.

Under-rostered Starting Pitchers, Last 14 Days
Player Team IP FIP K-BB% Stuff+ Pts/IP Roster%
Ryan Weathers MIA 13 2.98 22.0% 88 6.41 40.9%
Tylor Megill NYM 12 1.21 28.3% 115 7.80 40.0%
Matt Waldron SDP 17.2 1.15 29.2% 74 6.87 7.8%

Ryan Weathers earned a spot in the Marlins starting rotation with a fantastic spring training and has continued his success into the regular season. Over his last three starts, he’s allowed just two runs across 21 innings with an excellent 19:4 strikeout-to-walk ratio. In fact, he hasn’t allowed more than three runs in a single start except for a six run blowup against the Nationals on April 28. His fastball velocity has come down a bit from its peak in April, but it’s still higher than it was last year. The biggest difference maker for him has been his sweeper which is now running a whiff rate over 50%, more than double what it was last year. He’s a former first round draft pick and still only 24 years old so a post-hype breakout isn’t out of the question.

It certainly seemed like Tylor Megill was headed for a big breakout in 2022 but a shoulder injury cost him most of the season. He was inconsistent at best last year, though he did make 25 starts, second most on the Mets. In his final start of the season, he broke out a new splitter — he calls it a spork — and held the Phillies to just a single run in 7.1 innings while striking out seven. He honed that new pitch over the offseason and it’s now a major part of his pitch mix, running a whiff rate over 60%. He’s already been sidelined with a minor shoulder injury this year, but he’s been solid in his three starts, including holding the Dodgers scoreless over seven innings in his last outing.

Matt Waldron isn’t just throwing a knuckleball as a gimmick. He has a full five-pitch arsenal and uses the knuckler as a fully fledged secondary weapon to earn swings and misses. The rest of his pitches don’t really stand out all that much, but when a batter knows he’s going to see at least one or two knuckleballs in an at-bat, that uncertainty keeps them off balance just enough. Over his last three outings, he’s really had his floater working for him; he’s allowed just three runs across 17.2 innings while striking out 25. Because he relies so heavily on his knuckleball, and considering the fickle nature of the pitch, he’s bound to have hot and cold streaks based on how that pitch is performing.

Under-rostered Relief Pitchers, Last 14 Days
Player Team IP FIP K-BB% gmLI Stuff+ Pts/IP Roster%
Bryan Hudson MIL 6 1.46 29.2% 1.95 81 8.67 56.9%
Randy Rodríguez SFG 7.2 1.83 23.1% 1.01 119 8.98 7.5%
Porter Hodge CHC 2.1 -2.01 75.0% 0.15 102 11.88 4.7%
Tyson Miller CHC 4 1.38 31.3% 0.89 115 8.20 0.6%

With Devin Williams still sidelined, the Brewers have had some trouble finding reliable high-leverage options for their bullpen. Trevor Megill has settled in as their closer, but they’ve churned through a number of setup men, trying to find someone who can cover the seventh and eighth innings. Enter Bryan Hudson. He’s a lefty with a low-slot release point that gives batters fits. That’s how his fastball plays up despite pedestrian velocity and it gives his sweeper a ton of horizontal break — 17% more than the average for that pitch type. He’s struck out nearly a third of the batters he’s faced this year and is finally seeing regular high-leverage work.

Randy Rodríguez has the profile and pure stuff of a high-leverage reliever, but his lack of command has held him back from truly breaking out. His fastball grades out well thanks to above average velocity and plenty of carry at the top of the zone. He also has a two-plane slider that should be a good weapon for him if he can find a little more consistency with it. He made his major league debut early this month and had a stretch of five scoreless outings snapped yesterday when he allowed three runs to score in an inning of work. He’s more of a speculative add right now since he isn’t seeing much high-leverage work yet, but if he can harness his stuff, he’ll climb the bullpen ladder sooner or later.

The Cubs bullpen has had all sorts of trouble this year. Héctor Neris has seemingly locked down the ninth inning role but Chicago is still looking for high-leverage setup men. That’s how Tyson Miller earned a hold a few days ago a few weeks after being acquired from the Mariners. Miller has the flat fastball thrown from a low release point Seattle seems to love and a horizontal sweeper to go with it. He’s currently listed as the second setup man in the Cubs bullpen behind Neris and Mark Leiter Jr. Porter Hodge is another speculative add if Miller isn’t interesting enough for you. He’s only made three appearances in the majors so far, but he’s struck out 75% of the batters he’s faced. His fastball has good velocity and elite release extension helps it play up even more. He’s also added a splitter to his pitch mix this year and could quickly find himself pitching in high-leverage opportunities.


Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner: May 27–June 2

Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence.

May 27–June 2
Team Series 1 Matchup Series 2 Matchup Start Maybe Risky Sit
ARI @TEX (113) @NYM (146) Zac Gallen, Jordan Montgomery, Brandon Pfaadt Ryne Nelson (x2), Tommy Henry
ATL WSN (155) OAK (157) Charlie Morton (x2), Max Fried (x2), Reynaldo López, Chris Sale Darius Vines
BAL BOS (86) TBR (142) Grayson Rodriguez, Corbin Burnes, Kyle Bradish Dean Kremer, Cole Irvin (vTBR) Cole Irvin (vBOS)
BOS @BAL (108) DET (102) Kutter Crawford, Tanner Houck Nick Pivetta, Cooper Criswell (vDET), Brayan Bello (vDET) Cooper Criswell (@BAL), Brayan Bello (@BAL)
CHC @MIN (144) CIN (137) Shota Imanaga, Javier Assad Justin Steele (x2), Ben Brown (x2), Jameson Taillon
CHW TOR (95) @MIL (31) Garrett Crochet Erick Fedde 페디 Nick Nastrini (x2), Mike Clevinger, Chris Flexen 플렉센
CIN STL (51) @CHC (124) Hunter Greene Andrew Abbott Frankie Montas, Graham Ashcraft
CLE @COL (24) WSN (144) Tanner Bibee Ben Lively 라이블리 Xzavion Curry (vWSN) Xzavion Curry (@COL), Triston McKenzie, Logan Allen
COL CLE (69) @LAD (75) Ryan Feltner Austin Gomber (x2), Ty Blach, Dakota Hudson, Cal Quantrill
DET PIT (126) @BOS (97) Tarik Skubal, Jack Flaherty, Reese Olson Casey Mize (x2) Kenta Maeda
HOU @SEA (106) MIN (93) Framber Valdez (x2) Cristian Javier (x2), Justin Verlander, Ronel Blanco Hunter Brown José Urquidy (?)
KCR @MIN (144) SDP (102) Alec Marsh (@MIN), Cole Ragans (x2), Seth Lugo, Brady Singer Michael Wacha, Alec Marsh (vSDP)
LAA NYY (11) @SEA (106) Patrick Sandoval, José Soriano, Reid Detmers Tyler Anderson Griffin Canning (x2)
LAD @NYM (146) COL (62) Tyler Glasnow, Yoshinobu Yamamoto Gavin Stone (x2), Walker Buehler James Paxton
MIA @SDP (113) TEX (148) Jesús Luzardo Braxton Garrett Trevor Rogers (x2), Sixto Sánchez, Ryan Weathers
MIL CHC (111) CHW (133) Freddy Peralta (x2), Robert Gasser Bryse Wilson, Colin Rea Tobias Myers (x2)
MIN KCR (115) @HOU (22) Joe Ryan (vKCR), Bailey Ober Simeon Woods Richardson (vKCR), Chris Paddack, Pablo López, Joe Ryan (@HOU) Simeon Woods Richardson (@HOU)
NYM LAD (102) ARI (86) Luis Severino, Sean Manaea Tylor Megill (x2), Christian Scott Jose Quintana (x2)
NYY @LAA (46) @SFG (108) Clarke Schmidt, Nestor Cortes (@SFG) Nestor Cortes (@LAA), Luis Gil, Carlos Rodón, Marcus Stroman
OAK @TBR (137) @ATL (75) Mitch Spence (@TBR), Joey Estes, Ross Stripling, JP Sears Aaron Brooks 브룩스
PHI @SFG (108) STL (62) Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, Ranger Suárez Cristopher Sánchez Taijuan Walker (x2)
PIT @DET (148) @TOR (84) Jared Jones, Paul Skenes Mitch Keller Bailey Falter, Martín Pérez
SDP MIA (137) @KCR (77) Yu Darvish, Dylan Cease Michael King (x2), Matt Waldron, Joe Musgrove
SEA HOU (62) LAA (82) Luis Castillo (x2), George Kirby, Logan Gilbert, Bryan Woo Bryce Miller (x2)
SFG PHI (82) NYY (66) Blake Snell (x2), Jordan Hicks, Logan Webb Kyle Harrison Mason Black
STL @CIN (102) @PHI (40) Lance Lynn (x2), Kyle Gibson, Sonny Gray Miles Mikolas
TBR OAK (173) @BAL (108) Zack Littell (x2), Ryan Pepiot Taj Bradley Aaron Civale Tyler Alexander
TEX ARI (73) @MIA (148) Nathan Eovaldi (?) Dane Dunning, Andrew Heaney, José Ureña, Michael Lorenzen
TOR @CHW (117) PIT (80) Kevin Gausman, Yusei Kikuchi Chris Bassitt (x2), Alek Manoah, José Berríos
WSN @ATL (75) @CLE (80) MacKenzie Gore Jake Irvin (x2), Trevor Williams, Mitchell Parker Patrick Corbin (x2)

A few general schedule notes:

  • The Braves have a nice pair of home matchups against the Nationals and A’s next week. They’re in the midst of a long stretch of games without an off day which means they might turn to a sixth starter next week to keep the workload off their starters, so make sure you’re checking the announced starters for their games.
  • The Cubs also have a couple of easier matchups against the Twins and Reds. I can’t unreservedly recommend starting every pitcher in their rotation, but even guys like Jameson Taillon or Ben Brown are good bets to turn in decent starts next week.
  • The rest of the schedule is pretty mixed and there isn’t really a team who is facing a particularly tough week. The Rockies probably come the closest as they have a series at home against the Guardians and then head to Los Angeles to face the Dodgers. You’re probably not rostering any Colorado starters anyway though.

Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner: May 20–26

Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence.

May 20–26
Team Series 1 Matchup Series 2 Matchup Start Maybe Risky Sit
ARI @LAD (21) MIA (172) Zac Gallen, Jordan Montgomery Slade Cecconi (vMIA) Slade Cecconi (@LAD), Brandon Pfaadt Ryne Nelson
ATL @CHC (62) @PIT (152) Max Fried, Reynaldo López, Chris Sale (@PIT), Charlie Morton (@PIT) Chris Sale (vSDP), Charlie Morton (@CHC) Bryce Elder
BAL @STL (147) @CHW (133) Kyle Bradish (x2), Grayson Rodriguez (?), Corbin Burnes Cole Irvin, John Means, Dean Kremer
BOS @TBR (99) MIL (46) Tanner Houck (@TBR) Garrett Whitlock (?), Brayan Bello, Kutter Crawford, Nick Pivetta, Tanner Houck (vMIL)
CHC ATL (97) @STL (147) Shota Imanaga, Javier Assad (@STL) Javier Assad (vATL), Justin Steele, Jameson Taillon Kyle Hendricks
CHW @TOR (94) BAL (44) Erick Fedde 페디 (@TOR), Garrett Crochet (@TOR) Mike Clevinger, Erick Fedde (vBAL), Garrett Crochet (vBAL) Brad Keller, Chris Flexen 플렉센
CIN SDP (23) LAD (21) Andrew Abbott (x2), Nick Martinez, Frankie Montas, Hunter Greene Graham Ashcraft
CLE NYM (80) @LAA (55) Ben Lively 라이블리 (x2), Triston McKenzie, Tanner Bibee Carlos Carrasco, Logan Allen
COL @OAK (101) PHI (9) Ryan Feltner Austin Gomber Cal Quantrill (x2), Ty Blach, Dakota Hudson
DET @KCR (120) TOR (156) Reese Olson (x2), Casey Mize (x2), Tarik Skubal, Jack Flaherty Kenta Maeda (?)
HOU LAA (80) @OAK (101) Framber Valdez (x2) Cristian Javier, Justin Verlander Hunter Brown, José Urquidy (?)
KCR DET (172) @TBR (99) Michael Wacha (x2), Alec Marsh, Cole Ragans, Seth Lugo, Brady Singer
LAA @HOU (51) CLE (99) Patrick Sandoval Reid Detmers (x2), José Soriano Tyler Anderson Griffin Canning
LAD ARI (71) @CIN (110) Tyler Glasnow, Yoshinobu Yamamoto Gavin Stone James Paxton, Walker Buehler
MIA MIL (78) @ARI (106) Jesús Luzardo, Braxton Garrett Ryan Weathers (x2), Trevor Rogers, Sixto Sánchez
MIL @MIA (175) @BOS (140) Robert Gasser, Freddy Peralta Joe Ross (x2), Bryse Wilson, Colin Rea
MIN @WSN (122) TEX (101) Pablo López (x2), Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober Simeon Wood Richardson, Chris Paddack
NYM @CLE (115) SFG (110) Christian Scott, Luis Severino, Sean Manaea Tylor Megill (?), Jose Quintana
NYY SEA (67) @SDP (97) Nestor Cortes Clarke Schmidt (x2), Luis Gil, Carlos Rodón Marcus Stroman (x2)
OAK COL (149) HOU (120) Aaron Brooks 브룩스 (x2), Joey Estes, Kyle Muller, Ross Stripling, JP Sears
PHI TEX (69) @COL (53) Zack Wheeler Ranger Suárez (x2) Taijuan Walker, Aaron Nola Cristopher Sánchez
PIT SFG (117) ATL (106) Jared Jones, Paul Skenes Mitch Keller Martín Pérez (x2), Bailey Falter
SDP @CIN (110) NYY (39) Yu Darvish Dylan Cease (x2), Michael King (x2) Matt Waldron, Joe Musgrove
SEA @NYY (37) @WSN (122) Luis Castillo, George Kirby, Logan Gilbert (@WSN), Bryan Woo (@WSN) Logan Gilbert (@NYY), Bryan Woo (@NYY), Bryce Miller
SFG @PIT (152) @NYM (159) Logan Webb (x2), Jordan Hicks Kyle Harrison, Blake Snell (?), Keaton Winn
STL BAL (94) CHC (108) Sonny Gray (x2) Lance Lynn, Kyle Gibson, Miles Mikolas, Matthew Liberatore
TBR BOS (138) KCR (159) Taj Bradley (x2), Zack Littell, Zach Eflin, Ryan Pepiot (?), Aaron Civale
TEX @PHI (25) @MIN (122) Jon Gray (@MIN) Jon Gray (@PHI) Andrew Heaney, Michael Lorenzen José Ureña
TOR CHW (145) @DET (170) José Berríos (x2), Yusei Kikuchi (x2), Kevin Gausman Chris Bassitt Alek Manoah
WSN MIN (74) SEA (60) Mitchell Parker (x2), MacKenzie Gore Jake Irvin, Trevor Williams Patrick Corbin

A few general schedule notes:

  • After playing the Dodgers in Los Angeles this weekend, the Reds return home for a tough homestand against the Padres and the Dodgers (again). That makes for a pretty tough slate of matchups for their starters. Philadelphia also has a tougher schedule next week with three against the Rangers and then a weekend series in Colorado. Thanks to his elite groundball rate, Ranger Suárez might be the only pitcher who you’d want to start in Coors Field, though you’d have to be pretty desperate for the innings to take that risk.
  • There are a bunch of teams who have a pair of easier matchups lined up for next week: the Blue Jays, Brewers, Giants, Orioles, and Rays. For the most part, you’ll want to start any of the pitchers you own from those teams, though I’d be a little weary of the weekend series the Brewers have in Boston. The Red Sox offense has been scuffling a bit recently, but they’re much more potent at home.
  • Pitchers possibly coming off the Injured List sometime next week include Kenta Maeda, Tylor Megill, Ryan Pepiot, Grayson Rodriguez, Blake Snell, José Urquidy, and Garrett Whitlock. In general, I recommend waiting a start or two before inserting an injured starter back into your lineup, but Rodriguez’s projected start against the White Sox might be too good to pass up.

Ottoneu Drip: Finding Under-rostered Pitchers: May 14, 2024

We’re a little more than a quarter of the way through the regular season and the search for useful pitching is still just as pressing now as it was a month ago. Here’s a handful of pitchers who are rostered in under 40% of all Ottoneu leagues who could be nice pickups if you’re looking for an option to fill in for an injured starter or looking for another bullpen piece.

Under-rostered Starters
Player Team IP FIP K-BB% Stuff+ Pts/IP Roster%
Trevor Williams WSN 36.2 2.48 12.7% 82 6.12 39.1%
Jake Irvin WSN 45.2 3.22 15.2% 97 4.96 22.5%
Cole Irvin BAL 40.1 3.38 12.5% 85 4.93 21.3%

After profiling Mitchell Parker last month, I’ve got a couple more Nationals starters on my radar. (BTW, Parker has continued to pitch well against some pretty tough competition; he’s got a 3.02 FIP through five starts against the likes of the Dodgers, Astros, Rangers, and Orioles.) Both Trevor Williams and Jake Irvin have been surprisingly solid to start this season as part of a Washington starting rotation that has been much better than expected. Williams has had spurts of success in the past, but not like this. The biggest difference maker for him has been the addition of a sweeper to his repertoire that immediately became his best pitch. It’s running a whiff rate north of 40% and batters are producing a .227 xwOBA off the big breaker. He’s yet to allow a home run this year, which is certainly the product of some good luck, but his xFIP is a solid 3.79 and his xERA is an even better 3.01. The rest of his arsenal looks pretty unchanged which means he’ll need to keep leaning on this new pitch to maintain his success. It’s probably worth riding the hot streak for now, but be weary of quick regression.

Like Williams, Irvin has added a new pitch to his repertoire, a cutter in his case. This new pitch hasn’t had the same effect as the breaking ball, though it has given Irvin a fourth pitch to deepen his repertoire. Instead, he’s found success by cutting his walk rate by more than six points down to 4.3%. Across the board, his plate discipline stats look greatly improved; he’s pitching in the zone more often, but his chase rate is up a few points and his contact rate is down a few points. That’s a pretty good combination of improvements and he’s reaped the benefits. Beyond his improved walk rate, his peripherals aren’t as good looking as Williams (a 3.60 xFIP and a 4.79 xERA), but he’s probably good enough now to stream when the matchup is right as long as his hot streak continues.

Cole Irvin was turning heads this spring with some gaudy velocity numbers, but that hasn’t carried over into the regular season. Nevertheless, he’s been a solid member of the Orioles rotation as they’ve struggled with some injuries to start the season. Even though they’ve gotten a bit more healthy with Kyle Bradish and John Means coming off the IL, Irvin should keep his job in the rotation thanks to his excellent numbers through his first seven starts of the season. The biggest change for Irvin has been his usage of his curveball. That breaking ball is now his “primary” pitch at the expense of his changeup and cutter. Batters have produced a .296 xwOBA off the big breaker, helping him manage contact against him to the tune of a .267 BABIP. As a lefty pitching in the now cavernous Camden Yards, his home park benefits him a bit more too. His strikeout-to-walk ratio is essentially unchanged from his career norms so it seems like a lot of his success can be attributed to some pretty good batted ball luck. Still, his xFIP is a decent 3.82 while his xERA is a little higher at 3.99.

Under-rostered Relievers
Player Team IP FIP K-BB% gmLI Stuff+ Pts/IP Roster%
John Schreiber KCR 18.1 2.75 12.0% 1.82 97 8.04 38.4%
Austin Adams OAK 13.2 2.48 22.4% 1.18 114 9.45 22.5%
Luke Weaver NYY 26 2.87 23.2% 1.28 116 7.29 11.3%

John Schreiber turned in a solid effort as a setup guy back in 2022 for the Red Sox. Injuries derailed his season last year and he was shipped off to Kansas City during the offseason. He’s rediscovered himself with his new ballclub and has become one of the key members of their bullpen. There are a few red flags however; his strikeout rate is about ten points lower than it was a few years ago because his sweeper just isn’t earning many swings-and-misses these days. He’s been effective despite the lack of punch outs and is earning high leverage work regularly. Plus, the Royals current closer, James McArthur, has looked a little shaky during his last few outings so there could be an opportunity for Schreiber to sneak in a few saves here and there in the future.

Injuries and command issues have always held Austin Adams back from realizing his skills as a high-leverage reliever. He’s struck out nearly a third of the batters he’s faced in his career but he’s only accumulated 108.1 innings over the last five seasons. Finally healthy, he’s been a productive member of the A’s surprisingly dominant bullpen. Sitting behind Mason Miller and Lucas Erceg in the pecking order, he’s collected 11 holds in just 13.2 innings. What’s more encouraging is that his walk rate has dropped to a career-low 8.6%. He might not get much work in the eighth or ninth innings, but he’s been a fantastic bridge to get to those two relief aces behind him.

Luke Weaver has emerged as a multi-inning fireman in the Yankees bullpen this year. He hasn’t allowed a run over his last ten outings encompassing 15.1 innings with a 20-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio. His changeup has turned into an elite weapon for him with a whiff rate north of 50% and just a .201 xwOBA allowed off the pitch. His ability to work multiple innings has eased the pressure off a shaky New York bullpen and they’re leaning on him pretty hard to get to their closer in the ninth.


Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner: May 13–19

Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence.

May 13–19
Team Series 1 Matchup Series 2 Matchup Start Maybe Risky Sit
ARI CIN (179) DET (130) Jordan Montgomery (x2), Brandon Pfaadt, Zac Gallen Slade Cecconi, Ryne Nelson
ATL CHC (136) SDP (65) Reynaldo López (x2), Chris Sale, Charlie Morton, Max Fried Bryce Elder
BAL TOR (143) SEA (107) Corbin Burnes (x2), Kyle Bradish Cole Irvin, John Means, Dean Kremer
BOS TBR (92) @STL (163) Kutter Crawford (x2), Tanner Houck, Nick Pivetta (@STL) Nick Pivetta (vTBR), Cooper Criswell, Brayan Bello
CHC @ATL (103) PIT (141) Javier Assad, Justin Steele, Shota Imanaga (vPIT) Shota Imanaga (@ATL), Jameson Taillon Hayden Wesneski
CHW WSN (67) @NYY (33) Erick Fedde 페디 Chris Flexen 플렉센 (x2), Garrett Crochet, Mike Clevinger, Michael Soroka
CIN @ARI (125) @LAD (9) Hunter Greene (@ARI) Graham Ashcraft (@ARI), Andrew Abbott, Nick Lodolo Frankie Montas, Graham Ashcraft (@LAD), Hunter Greene (@LAD)
CLE @TEX (54) MIN (49) Tanner Bibee (x2) Ben Lively 라이블리, Carlos Carrasco, Triston McKenzie, Logan Allen
COL @SDP (103) @SFG (167) Ryan Feltner Peter Lambert (x2) Cal Quantrill, Austin Gomber, Dakota Hudson
DET MIA (159) @ARI (125) Reese Olson, Tarik Skubal, Jack Flaherty Casey Mize Kenta Maeda (x2)
HOU OAK (78) MIL (49) Framber Valdez Ronel Blanco (x2), Cristian Javier, Justin Verlander Hunter Brown (x2)
KCR @SEA (130) OAK (116) Brady Singer (x2), Michael Wacha, Cole Ragans, Seth Lugo Alec Marsh
LAA STL (121) @TEX (54) Reid Detmers José Soriano (vSTL) Griffin Canning, Tyler Anderson, Patrick Sandoval, José Soriano (@TEX)
LAD @SFG (167) CIN (134) Yoshinobu Yamamoto (x2), Tyler Glasnow, Walker Buehler Gavin Stone (x2), James Paxton
MIA @DET (132) NYM (107) Ryan Weathers, Trevor Rogers, Braxton Garrett Sixto Sánchez (x2), Jesús Luzardo (?)
MIL PIT (121) @HOU (45) Freddy Peralta Colin Rea (vPIT), Joe Ross Tobias Myers, Bryse Wilson, Colin Rea (@HOU)
MIN NYY (51) @CLE (96) Bailey Ober Pablo López, Joe Ryan, Simeon Woods Richardson Chris Paddack (x2)
NYM PHI (56) @MIA (156) Luis Severino, Sean Manaea (@MIA) Sean Manaea (vPHI), Christian Scott José Buttó, Jose Quintana
NYY @MIN (76) CHW (129) Nestor Cortes, Luis Gil, Carlos Rodón (vCHW) Carlos Rodón (@MIN), Marcus Stroman Clarke Schmidt
OAK @HOU (45) @KCR (107) Paul Blackburn JP Sears (@HOU), Alex Wood, Ross Stripling Osvaldo Bido (?)
PHI @NYM (141) WSN (74) Aaron Nola (x2), Ranger Suárez, Zack Wheeler Cristopher Sánchez (x2), Taijuan Walker
PIT @MIL (49) @CHC (91) Jared Jones Mitch Keller (x2), Paul Skenes Martín Pérez, Bailey Falter Quinn Priester
SDP COL (150) @ATL (103) Dylan Cease Michael King, Joe Musgrove Randy Vásquez (vCOL) Matt Waldron, Randy Vásquez (@ATL)
SEA KCR (118) @BAL (100) George Kirby (x2), Logan Gilbert, Bryan Woo, Bryce Miller, Luis Castillo
SFG LAD (65) COL (176) Logan Webb, Jordan Hicks (vCOL) Jordan Hicks (vLAD), Kyle Harrison Keaton Winn, Mason Black
STL @LAA (58) BOS (80) Sonny Gray Lance Lynn Kyle Gibson, Miles Mikolas
TBR @BOS (74) @TOR (103) Zach Eflin (@TOR), Aaron Civale (@TOR) Zach Eflin (@BOS), Aaron Civale (@BOS), Taj Bradley, Zack Littell Tyler Alexander
TEX CLE (98) LAA (87) Jon Gray Andrew Heaney, Nathan Eovaldi (?) Michael Lorenzen (x2)
TOR @BAL (100) TBR (76) Yusei Kikuchi, Kevin Gausman José Berríos (x2), Chris Bassitt Alek Manoah
WSN @CHW (112) @PHI (29) Trevor Williams (@CHW), Mitchell Parker, MacKenzie Gore Patrick Corbin, Jake Irvin, Trevor Williams (@PHI)

A few general schedule notes:

  • The only schedule quirk next week is a four-game, home-and-home series between the Phillies and Mets. They’ll start off with two games in New York and then two games in Philadelphia. The matchups are poor for the Mets no matter where they’re playing since the Phillies offense has been so good recently. For the Phillies, the matchup is a lot better in the pitcher friendly confines of Citi Field.
  • Teams to avoid with a pair of tough matchups include the Guardians and White Sox. Cleveland travels to Texas to face the Rangers and then hosts the red hot Twins. You’re probably not rostering any Chicago starters except for Erick Fedde and he’s the only recommendation I have from their rotation in a revenge game against his former team, the Nationals.
  • The Diamondbacks and Dodgers both have a pair of easier matchups on the docket next week. Arizona hosts the Reds and the Tigers, both of whom have struggling offenses. Los Angeles travels to San Francisco and then hosts the Reds.

Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner: May 6–12

Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence.

May 6–12
Team Series 1 Matchup Series 2 Matchup Start Maybe Risky Sit
ARI @CIN (74) @BAL (90) Zac Gallen(x2), Jordan Montgomery, Brandon Pfaadt Slade Cecconi, Ryne Nelson
ATL BOS (49) @NYM (137) Reynaldo López, Chris Sale, Charlie Morton, Max Fried Bryce Elder
BAL @WSN (101) ARI (99) Corbin Burnes, Kyle Bradish Cole Irvin, Dean Kremer John Means
BOS @ATL (81) WSN (85) Tanner Houck Kutter Crawford, Cooper Criswell Nick Pivetta (?) Chase Anderson
CHC SDP (94) @PIT (162) Shota Imanaga, Jameson Taillon, Javier Assad Justin Steele (?), Hayden Wesneski
CHW @TBR (155) CLE (45) Erick Fedde 페디 Mike Clevinger (?), Garrett Crochet Michael Soroka (x2), Chris Flexen 플렉센
CIN ARI (52) @SFG (162) Andrew Abbott, Nick Lodolo Hunter Greene Frankie Montas (?), Graham Ashcraft
CLE DET (86) @CHW (117) Tanner Bibee, Ben Lively 라이블리 Triston McKenzie (x2), Logan Allen (x2) Carlos Carrasco
COL SFG (70) TEX (56) Dakota Hudson (x2), Peter Lambert, Cal Quantrill, Austin Gomber, Ryan Feltner
DET @CLE (52) HOU (124) Tarik Skubal Jack Flaherty (x2), Reese Olson Kenta Maeda, Casey Mize
HOU @NYY (74) @DET (112) Framber Valdez Justin Verlander (x2), Ronel Blanco, Cristian Javier Hunter Brown
KCR MIL (74) @LAA (63) Cole Ragans (x2) Seth Lugo (x2), Brady Singer, Michael Wacha
LAA @PIT (162) KCR (110) Reid Detmers Tyler Anderson (x2), Patrick Sandoval (x2) José Soriano, Griffin Canning
LAD MIA (135) @SDP (117) Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Tyler Glasnow Walker Buehler (?), Gavin Stone James Paxton
MIA @LAD (16) PHI (83) Trevor Rogers Edward Cabrera, Ryan Weathers, Sixto Sánchez Braxton Garrett (?)
MIL @KCR (119) STL (131) Freddy Peralta Bryse Wilson (x2), Colin Rea (x2), Joe Ross Tobias Myers
MIN SEA (108) @TOR (103) Bailey Ober (x2), Pablo López, Joe Ryan Simeon Woods Richardson (x2), Chris Paddack
NYM @STL (160) ATL (90) Sean Manaea José Buttó, Luis Severino Jose Quintana, Christian Scott Adrian Houser
NYY HOU (85) @TBR (155) Nestor Cortes, Luis Gil (@TBR) Marcus Stroman, Clarke Schmidt Luis Gil (vHOU), Carlos Rodón
OAK TEX (117) @SEA (124) Paul Blackburn Ross Stripling, JP Sears Alex Wood (x2), Joe Boyle
PHI TOR (108) @MIA (182) Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, Ranger Suárez, Cristopher Sánchez (@MIA) Cristopher Sánchez (vSFG), Taijuan Walker
PIT LAA (110) CHC (153) Jared Jones Mitch Keller (x2), Martín Pérez Bailey Falter Quinn Priester
SDP @CHC (90) LAD (40) Yu Darvish (@CHC), Dylan Cease Joe Musgrove, Yu Darvish (vLAD) Michael King, Matt Waldron
SEA @MIN (72) OAK (108) Luis Castillo (x2), George Kirby, Logan Gilbert, Bryce Miller Emerson Hancock, Bryan Woo (?)
SFG @COL (99) CIN (180) Logan Webb Kyle Harrison (vCIN) Jordan Hicks, Keaton Winn Kyle Harrison (@COL)
STL NYM (99) @MIL (47) Sonny Gray Lance Lynn Miles Mikolas (x2), Steven Matz (x2), Kyle Gibson
TBR CHW (164) NYY (81) Zach Eflin, Aaron Civale Zack Littell, Ryan Pepiot Tyler Alexander (x2)
TEX @OAK (155) @COL (99) Nathan Eovaldi, Andrew Heaney (@OAK), Michael Lorenzen Dane Dunning, Jon Gray, Andrew Heaney (@COL)
TOR @PHI (40) MIN (34) José Berríos, Yusei Kikuchi, Kevin Gausman Chris Bassitt
WSN BAL (43) @BOS (65) MacKenzie Gore Mitchell Parker Trevor Williams, Patrick Corbin, Jake Irvin

A few general schedule notes:

  • There are a bunch of teams with two off days next week: the Blue Jays, Braves, Nationals, Orioles, Red Sox. These teams may take the extra rest day to reset their rotation so keep an eye on their announced starters to make sure the matchups are where you want them.
  • The Rangers and A’s have a scheduled double-header on Wednesday and both teams will need to call up a spot starter. Texas will likely give Jack Leiter his second big league start and it comes against a surprisingly decent Oakland ballclub.
  • It’s possible we’ll see the activations of Walker Buehler, Justin Steele, Nick Pivetta, Frankie Montas, Bryan Woo, and Braxton Garrett next week. Those pitching staffs will be in flux as they figure out how to fit those injured pitchers back into the rotation.
  • The Blue Jays and Nationals have a tough week ahead. Toronto travels to Philadelphia for a couple of games before hosting the red hot Twins. The Nationals have a two-game Beltway series on tap and then will travel to Boston and the cozy confines of Fenway Park.

Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner: April 29–May 5

Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence. To start the season, I’ll be relying on projected team wOBA until there’s sufficient in-season data to start calculating these matchup ratings.

April 29–May 5
Team Series 1 Matchup Series 2 Matchup Start Maybe Risky Sit
ARI LAD (64) SDP (120) Jordan Montgomery, Zac Gallen, Brandon Pfaadt Tommy Henry (x2), Slade Cecconi
ATL @SEA (93) @LAD (20) Max Fried (@SEA), Reynaldo López, Chris Sale Max Fried (@LAD) Charlie Morton Bryce Elder
BAL NYY (96) @CIN (53) Corbin Burnes Grayson Rodriguez (x2) Dean Kremer (x2), Albert Suárez 수아레즈 Cole Irvin
BOS SFG (98) @MIN (124) Kutter Crawford, Tanner Houck Cooper Criswell (x2), Josh Winckowski Chase Anderson
CHC @NYM (82) MIL (104) Javier Assad (x2), Shota Imanaga Jameson Taillon (x2) Ben Brown (?), Jordan Wicks
CHW MIN (87) @STL (124) Garrett Crochet (x2), Erick Fedde 페디 Michael Soroka, Chris Flexen 플렉센, Jonathan Cannon
CIN @SDP (104) BAL (20) Nick Lodolo (@SDP) Nick Martinez Graham Ashcraft, Hunter Greene, Andrew Abbott, Nick Lodolo (vBAL)
CLE @HOU (49) LAA (84) Tanner Bibee Carlos Carrasco (x2), Triston McKenzie, Logan Allen, Ben Lively 라이블리
COL @MIA (173) @PIT (156) Ryan Feltner (x2) Dakota Hudson, Peter Lambert, Cal Quantrill, Austin Gomber
DET STL (131) @NYY (71) Tarik Skubal Jack Flaherty, Reese Olson Kenta Maeda (x2), Casey Mize
HOU CLE (104) SEA (84) Justin Verlander, Framber Valdez Ronel Blanco Hunter Brown (x2) Spencer Arrighetti
KCR @TOR (62) TEX (120) Cole Ragans Seth Lugo, Brady Singer, Michael Wacha Daniel Lynch (?)
LAA PHI (47) @CLE (109) Reid Detmers Griffin Canning (x2), Tyler Anderson, Patrick Sandoval, José Soriano
LAD @ARI (100) ATL (11) Yoshinobu Yamamoto Walker Buehler (?), Tyler Glasnow James Paxton (@ARI) Gavin Stone, James Paxton (vATL)
MIA COL (149) @OAK (184) Trevor Rogers (x2), Jesús Luzardo, Edward Cabrera, Ryan Weathers
MIL TBR (118) @CHC (96) Freddy Peralta Colin Rea, Joe Ross, Tobias Myers
MIN @CHW (133) BOS (71) Joe Ryan (x2), Bailey Ober, Pablo López Simeon Woods Richardson, Chris Paddack
NYM CHC (98) @TBR (153) Luis Severino (x2), Sean Manaea (x2) José Buttó, Jose Quintana Adrian Houser
NYY @BAL (67) DET (127) Marcus Stroman, Nestor Cortes (vDET) Nestor Cortes (@BAL), Clarke Schmidt (vDET) Clarke Schmidt (@BAL), Luis Gil, Carlos Rodón
OAK PIT (171) MIA (176) JP Sears, Paul Blackburn Joe Boyle (x2), Ross Stripling Alex Wood
PHI @LAA (67) SFG (80) Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, Ranger Suárez Cristopher Sánchez (x2) Taijuan Walker
PIT @OAK (184) COL (136) Mitch Keller, Jared Jones Bailey Falter (x2), Martín Pérez Quinn Priester
SDP CIN (91) @ARI (100) Dylan Cease, Michael King Joe Musgrove Matt Waldron (x2)
SEA ATL (33) @HOU (49) Bryce Miller (x2), Luis Castillo, George Kirby, Logan Gilbert Emerson Hancock
SFG @BOS (58) @PHI (49) Logan Webb (x2) Jordan Hicks, Keaton Winn Kyle Harrison
STL @DET (164) CHW (182) Sonny Gray, Lance Lynn Steven Matz (x2), Kyle Gibson, Miles Mikolas
TBR @MIL (84) NYM (96) Zach Eflin, Aaron Civale Ryan Pepiot (x2), Zack Littell Tyler Alexander
TEX WSN (113) @KCR (136) Jon Gray (x2), Nathan Eovaldi Michael Lorenzen, Dane Dunning Andrew Heaney
TOR KCR (89) @WSN (102) José Berríos, Yusei Kikuchi, Kevin Gausman Chris Bassitt Yariel Rodriguez (x2)
WSN @TEX (87) TOR (64) Jake Irvin (@MIA), MacKenzie Gore (x2) Jake Irvin (vTOR) Trevor Williams, Mitchell Parker, Patrick Corbin

A few general schedule notes:

  • Simply based on the way the schedules lined up, it looks like there are a ton of teams who have a pair of easy opponents next week: the A’s, Cardinals, Marlins, Pirates and Rockies all look like they’ve got easily exploitable matchups. The problem is that those teams don’t have completely trustworthy starting rotations to begin with, which means there are still some risky plays despite the opponents.
  • I’d be comfortable starting anyone from the Marlins rotation in their series against the Rockies and A’s and they’ll also need callup fill-ins for two spot starts next week. It probably won’t be Braxton Garrett as he’s still working back from his shoulder injury, but keep an eye on his progress as Miami might activate him off the IL early to make one of those starts next week.
  • This is one of the few opportunities to go ahead and start any Rockies starters you might be rostering since they’re on the road playing two weak offenses (but let’s be honest, that’s probably not likely). I actually think Ryan Feltner is a sneaky streaming play since he has a two-start week and has been pretty decent this year.
  • On the flip side, the Giants and Mariners have two pretty tough matchups on the docket next week. San Francisco travels to Boston and Philadelphia and Logan Webb seems like the only matchup-proof starter in their rotation (and he has a double-start week too). The Mariners have the harder task of hosting the Braves and then traveling to Houston. Their cadre of aces have been absolutely dominant recently, but it’s a tall ask to face two of the best offenses in baseball.