After Chad Young and Lucas Kelly covered their keep or cut decisions at catcher before Thanksgiving, I’m kicking off our coverage of the two corner infield positions this week.

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Paul Goldschmidt, 1B
Salary: $11
Average Salary: $21
2024 P/G: 4.55
Projected 2025 P/G: 5.08

Paul Goldschmidt limped through his worst season in the big leagues at age 36, setting career worsts in WAR, wRC+, batting average, OBP, slugging percentage, isolated power, wOBA, xwOBA, walk rate, and strikeout rate. He’s a free agent and entering his age-37 season. He just might be cooked.

So let’s turn to the favorite tool of the fantasy baseball optimists, the rolling graph:

Here we see Goldschmidt’s season in 20-game increments. There’s a noticeable peak during the second half of the season. Indeed, he posted a .271/.319/.480 slash line and a 120 wRC+ after the All-Star break. That’s still a far cry from his peak as a slugging first baseman, but it’s definitely useful and his little hot streak in early September gave us a glimpse of what he could be in his old age.

In a fantasy baseball format so laser focused on future value, aging veterans often go undervalued in Ottoneu. I picked up Goldschmidt for $9 in September after a frustrated owner cut him to clear some cap space. His current $21 average salary is assuredly inflated by owners who held onto him through the end of the season but are planning on cutting him prior to the keeper deadline. In my preliminary rankings based on the currently available Steamer projections (and a homebrew of other data sources), I have Goldschmidt ranked around tenth at the position in a tier with Vinnie Pasquantino and Nathaniel Lowe among others. Of course I’d rather have either of those two younger hitters in my lineup, but Goldschmidt will probably come cheaper than any of the other players in the tier.

Will he be worth $11 next year? Steamer seems to think that he isn’t as cooked as his 2024 season would lead us to believe. Five points per game from a first baseman isn’t as bad as you might expect from the position. I’m not sure if you’ve noticed, but offensive production from first basemen has gone missing the past few years — collectively first basemen produced a 104 wRC+ in 2024, the worst mark for the position since 1963. According to the Auction Calculator, Lowe returned $11 in value in 2024 with a .337 wOBA. Goldschmidt’s wOBA during the second half of the season was .340. I’m willing to bet that a hitter as good as he is will figure out a way to continue to be productive in 2025 and hold off Father Time for at least one more year.

Keep or cut?

I’m keeping at $11 and I’d consider it all the way up to $14 or $15. I wouldn’t want to head into the season with Goldschmidt as the only 1B on my roster, but I think there’s probably a bit of life left in his bat.

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Jazz Chisholm Jr., 3B/OF
Salary: $15
Average Salary: $16
2024 P/G: 5.26
Projected 2025 P/G: 5.49

I don’t actually think this decision is all that hard. I’ve got Jazz on my roster at a salary a dollar under the Ottoneu average and I think that average is going to see a lot of inflation during draft season. His helium after getting traded to the Yankees is very real and probably deserved. He increased his hard hit rate from 37.1% with the Marlins to 48.5% in New York fueling a very nice 69 point increase in isolated power. His 132 wRC+ with the Yanks was much more in line with his short-lived breakout back in 2022 than his injury-plagued season in ‘23 and the beginning of this year.

This, then, is more of a warning to keep your expectations in check. This year represented the first time Chisholm was able to cross the 600 PA threshold in his career as he was finally healthy for the majority of the year. Beyond the injury concerns, there’s also his unsustainable home run rate that fueled a lot of his production in New York — nearly a quarter of the fly balls he hit as a Yankee left the park, a level reserved for the best sluggers in the game. Sure, Jazz has enjoyed elevated home run rates in the past (23.3% and 23.5% in 2022 and ‘23), but those both came in injury abbreviated seasons and home run rates usually take a while to stabilize.

I’ll go ahead and argue against myself and point out that Chisholm increased his pull rate after joining the Yankees, no doubt looking to take advantage of the short porch in right field in Yankee Stadium. There’s no question he was energized after the trade and made some key adjustments to improve his batted ball quality, I just think that some level-headed thinking should temper our expectations a bit. Steamer seems to agree, pegging Jazz for a wOBA exactly in line with his overall 2024 line (which includes the lackluster performance he put together in Miami before the trade).

I’ve got him ranked somewhere around eighth at 3B in a tier with Mark Vientos, Matt Chapman, and Max Muncy. The position is actually quite deep these days which means his upside really needs to stand out against all the other options out there. I’d rather roster him or Vientos than Chapman or Muncy if I’m picking one out of that tier.

Keep or cut?

I’m happily keeping at $15 and I think it probably makes sense up to around $18. There’s also the question of where the Yankees will end up playing Jazz next year after the departure of Gleyber Torres. If they move him back to 2B and he ends up regaining eligibility there, his value will skyrocket.

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Jake Burger, 1B/3B
Salary: $16
Average Salary: $7
2024 P/G: 4.96
Projected 2025 P/G: 5.03

Jake Burger had a weird season this year. He was injured in early April, really struggled upon his return, and then was pretty streaky through the end of the season. He produced some phenomenal numbers in July and August — a 162 wRC+ during those two summer months — but struggled pretty dramatically during the other four months of the season. His full season slash line ended up being just okay at .250/.301/.460 good for a 106 wRC+. That was a pretty significant step back from his breakout in 2023.

The good news is that his batted ball peripherals looked pretty stable from that breakout year. His hard hit and barrel rates both decreased slightly, but they were still among the best in the game. He incrementally improved his plate discipline and contact rate as well. It kind of seems like his struggles were mostly BABIP related and a product of an elevated ground ball rate.

As soon as he cut his ground ball rate to around 40% in the middle of the season, his power numbers exploded. That’s not surprising for someone with his kind of batted ball quality, but it’s good to see it layed out so nicely in that graph above.

Because of his inconsistent performance this year, I’ve got him ranked around 13th at the position in a tier alongside fellow 1B/3Bs Alec Bohm and Isaac Paredes. His batted ball peripherals are better than both of those other hitters, making his upside a little more tangible.

Keep or cut?

I do like Burger and I think he’ll be better than his ‘24 numbers and Steamer projection suggest, but I think $16 is too much to pay for the risk that he doesn’t figure it out. I think I’d be happier paying between $10 and $12 all things considered.

The end of the regular season is quickly approaching and that means it’s time to get those final auctions started in your Ottoneu leagues before rosters lock for the first phase of the offseason. Any auctions you start before Friday will end before the end of the season which means it’s your last chance to add any prospects, injured players, or even a pitcher for the final weekend of the season. Here are a few recommendations of players owned in less than 70% of Ottoneu leagues in a few different categories.

Prospects

If you’ve got a favorite prospect or sleeper who has quietly had a strong season in the minor leagues, now’s your chance to add them to your roster. One thing to remember about adding any players at this point is that they’ll be subject to the same salary inflation as any other player rostered, but that inflation is halved for prospects. You’ll need to remember to build in that extra dollar into your auction bid if you’re looking to keep the prospect into next year, but it’s also just as easy to cut them at the keeper deadline if the salary ends up being too high.

Here are a few prospects who you might consider adding, though I’m certainly not a prospect expert and am usually reluctant to actually roster a large number of prospects on my Ottoneu teams.

Personally, I’m more interested in rostering prospects that are closer to the majors who could be potential contributors sooner rather than later. That means I’m usually not looking at players below Double-A, though there are certainly a few interesting names on the list above that are finishing the season in the low minors. Of the players above, I’m most interested in rostering guys like Sebastian Walcott or Bryce Eldridge; both of them had huge minor league seasons and will be quickly knocking on the door of the big leagues as soon as next year.

Injured Players with Keepable Value

Another category of players who could be nice pickups if you’re looking forward to next year are those players currently on the IL and on track to be healthy by the time spring training rolls around. For the most part, that list is populated by pitchers but there are a few injured position players who could be interesting keepers too.

One thing to note about adding these players to your roster is that if they’re on the 60-day IL, they’ll be activated right as the MLB offseason begins and they’ll end up taking up an Ottoneu roster spot as a regular player would. Some leagues have rules about the shape of your offseason rosters, specifically to enforce a team hoarding a ton of 60-day IL players at the end of the season and then entering the offseason with more than 40 players on their roster.

Picking up any of these injured pitchers is a real gamble since their recovery isn’t guaranteed. Take Luis Garica for example: he was supposed to return from his Tommy John surgery sometime this season and actually started a rehab assignment, but after a couple of setbacks, he’s now looking to regain his health over the offseason. If you really like any of these players and think they can be contributors next year, it might be worth throwing a dollar or two at them at the end of this season, but they’ll be hit by the $2 salary inflation and will most likely be available in the draft anyway.

Last Gasp Players

The final group of players I’ll highlight are for those of you in an extremely close battle in your standings heading into the final weekend of the season and you desperately need a small boost to get you over the edge.

SP/RP Brant Hurter – 42.6% roster%
I wrote up Hurter a few weeks ago and he’s turned in another couple of solid outings since then. He’s being used as a bulk pitcher behind an opener which means you’ll have to monitor his usage and ensure he’s in the right roster slot in Ottoneu, but he should line up to face the White Sox this weekend which is an extremely juicy matchup.

SP Andre Pallante – 21.94% roster%
Pallante has quietly had a really solid second half of the season — 3.60 FIP since the All-Star break — and has turned in two brilliant outings in a row against the Pirates and Guardians. He’s on track to start in San Francisco during the final weekend of the season and that’s as good an environment you can find for a streamer.

SP/RP Landen Roupp – 11.91% roster%
Opposing Pallante in that final series in San Francisco is Roupp, though he’s slated to pitch on Friday. The Giants have been giving Roupp a longer leash out of the starting rotation to finish the season and he’s responded by putting up some decent numbers across three starts.

Welcome back to the final Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner of the season. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence.

A few general schedule notes:

• We’ve made it to the final week of the season. Ottoneu head-to-head leagues should be all wrapped up leaving teams in points leagues to battle it out for the top three spots in their leagues. A reminder that the innings pitched cap is a soft cap, so make sure you plan out when your starters are going next week and try to stack as many of them as you can on the day you think you’ll go over the cap.
• Be on the lookout for teams that re-slot their rotations in preparation for the playoffs or teams who try to line up their starters for a final push into the postseason. Double-check your probables and be ready to switch to a backup plan if things go sideways. I’ve marked a handful of pitchers with an (X) if their start next week lines up for Saturday or Sunday and their team has clinched a playoff berth already. Notably, Zack Wheeler is lined up to start on Saturday, but the Phillies may opt to skip that final start to keep him fresh for the first round of the playoffs.
• It’s a good week to own shares of Rangers or Tigers pitching. They both get some pretty nice matchups and Detroit’s Wild Card chase should keep all of their games relevant through the end of the season.
• On the other hand, it looks like a pretty rough week for the Dodgers and Padres. Los Angeles’s starting rotation is a mess with injuries taking their toll and Bobby Miller getting sent back to Triple-A this week. To make matters worse, they finish the season in Colorado. If they have the division locked up by next weekend, I could see them either skipping Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s start entirely or giving him a very short outing to keep him ready for the first round of the playoffs.

Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence.

Some general schedule notes:

• We’ve reached Championship week in Ottoneu head-to-head leagues. Hopefully, your pitching staff is filled with starters who have favorable matchups and that you have enough pitchers to hit your games started cap.
• It’s a tough week for the Diamondbacks as they travel to Colorado and then to Milwaukee to face the hot hitting Brew Crew. Milwaukee also has a couple of tough matchups next week, hosting the Phillies and the D-Backs. Not that you were rostering any of their pitchers anyway, but it’s a bad week for the Rockies; after hosting Arizona, they head to Los Angeles to face the Dodgers.
• Along with that matchup against the Rockies, the Dodgers also get a series in Miami next week and will also finish off a wraparound four-game series against the Braves on Monday. Their pitching staff is pretty chaotic right now and I definitely don’t trust Walker Buehler or Bobby Miller, but Yoshinobu Yamamoto is an easy start for his two starts and Jack Flaherty should continue to dominate. There’s also a possibility that Tyler Glasnow will be activated off the IL after throwing a bullpen session this week.
• The Royals are the other team with a pair of easier matchups next week and I can wholeheartedly recommend all of their starters except for Alec Marsh.

With just two and half weeks left in the regular season, we’re entering crunch time for teams still vying for a fantasy baseball championship. Hitting your innings caps in Ottoneu leagues is one of the most important ways you can maximize your roster to its fullest extent. Here are four starters who are rostered in under 60% of all Ottoneu leagues who could be useful pickups for the final stretch of the season. I’ve also tried to guess at these pitches potential opponents through the end of the season, provided their teams stay on schedule and no injuries occur. With so few days left to affect your position in the standings, every start can make a difference.

The last time I ran this column, I wrote up Frankie Montas since he had made some improvements to his repertoire since joining the Brewers at the deadline. This time around, I’ll feature the other starter Milwaukee acquired midseason, Aaron Civale. He didn’t have a great start to his stint with the Brew Crew, but he’s been a lot better since August with a 3.58 ERA and a 4.13 FIP over his last seven starts. The key to his turnaround has been the reintroduction of a slider to his pitch mix. That gives him a breaking ball that sits between his cutter and his sweeper, giving batters an even harder time picking up any one of those three pitches. He’s got a couple of tough starts against the Diamondbacks in the near future, but that start in Pittsburgh the final week of the season looks really nice.

I also wrote up Matthew Boyd in this column a few weeks ago and he’s turned in three excellent starts since then. The most encouraging thing is that he’s finally getting whiffs with his breaking balls which has helped him strike out nearly 35% of the batters he’s faced during his last three starts. He’s also got two pretty decent matchups on his schedule before a bit of a risky play against the Astros to finish the season.

Brant Hurter is a little bit of an unorthodox option in Ottoneu. He’s made just one traditional start during his time in the big leagues and has acted as the bulk pitcher behind an opener in his other six appearances. In Ottoneu, you need to slot your pitchers in the role they’re used by their teams which means you need to pay attention to whether or not Detroit is using an opener for Hurter or not. As for Hurter himself, he’s been pretty effective in his bulk role. He throws from a low, three-quarters slot which imparts a ton of horizontal movement to his sinker and sweeper. He also recently developed a changeup which has given him a weapon to use against right-handed batters. If he stays on schedule, he’s got two risky matchups against the Orioles and Royals before an easier outing against the Rays.

Here’s another stretch of a recommendation. Jakob Junis was picked up by the Reds in the Frankie Montas trade as a throw in — Joey Wiemer was the real target in that deal — and has mostly pitched in short stints out of the bullpen this year. Injuries in Cincinnati’s starting rotation have forced them to use him in longer stints recently. He completed five innings in his last start against the Mets and has only allowed a single run in his previous three outings. He’s enjoyed some success in the past thanks to his elite slider, but a litany of injuries have sapped him of much of his effectiveness. Two of his final outings will come away from Great American Ballpark, which should be a great benefit to him. You can probably treat him as a dart throw, but if you’re really desperate for innings, he’s an option that won’t cost much.

Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence.

Some general schedule notes:

• The only schedule quirk worth mentioning is that the Braves and Reds play a makeup game on Monday, September 9. That means that Cincinnati will play in four different cities in 10 days and will fly from New York to Atlanta and then to St. Louis from Sunday to Tuesday.

Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence.

Some general schedule notes:

• Ottoneu head-to-head playoffs begin next week which means every single start will matter all the more and hitting your games started cap is of utmost importance.
• The schedule is a pretty mixed bag next week. The only team with a pair of good or bad matchups is the Orioles who get the punchless White Sox and Rays at home. Even though they’re not double red above, it’s probably a good idea to fade starters from the Giants and Guardians since both the Royals and Diamondbacks have been among the hottest teams in baseball recently.
• With the Monday holiday, a number of teams have a Tuesday off day in the middle of a series. Teams may use that opportunity to reslot their rotations or give some of their younger starters some additional rest. Keep an eye out for any last-minute schedule changes.

It’s been a little over a month since I’ve written up some under-rostered pitchers and the search for useful pitching is never ending. With Ottoneu playoffs starting in head-to-head leagues next week and stretch run for points leagues upon us, here are five starters who are rostered in under 60% of all Ottoneu leagues who could be nice pickups for the final month of the season. I’ve also tried to guess at these pitches potential opponents through the end of the season, provided their teams stay on schedule and no injuries occur. With so few days left to affect your position in the standings, every start can make a difference.

Frankie Montas joined the Brewers at the trade deadline and has made five solid starts for his new team. Milwaukee has had him continue to reemphasize his four-seam fastball in his pitch mix; he’s throwing that pitch over 40% of the time in August, a higher rate in any single month since May 2017. Maybe it’s because he’s throwing his heater harder than he has all season long, getting back up to the velocity he was enjoying a couple of years ago before his shoulder issues. The fastball has returned a 30.2% whiff rate this month and that solid foundation has helped the effectiveness of his entire repertoire. If his velocity sticks into September, he could be a nice addition to your fantasy team, particularly in the matchups against the Rockies and Giants.

With the Orioles dealing with a number of injuries to their starting rotation, Dean Kremer has stepped up with a string of three straight solid starts. He’s been increasing the usage of his brand-new splitter each month of the season and he’s now incorporating it into his pitch mix around a quarter of the time. Opposing batters are whiffing 34.2% of the time they offer at that offspeed pitch and are producing a .249 expected wOBA off of it. The rest of his arsenal is too inconsistent to be of note, and his schedule isn’t that favorable outside a pair of home starts against the Rays and Giants.

After undergoing Tommy John surgery last year, Matthew Boyd has made it back to the majors with the Guardians. He’s made three starts for Cleveland and has looked decent. As with any pitching rehabbing from a major surgery, there are bound to be hiccups along the way, but Boyd may still have the talent and coaching staff surrounding him to thrive. His fastball’s velocity is sitting right around where it was at his peak with the Tigers and it’s generating a whiff rate a hair under 30%. His secondary offerings aren’t getting the swings and misses yet, but when they click for him, he should enjoy some additional success. His starts against the Dodgers and Astros are pretty easy skips, but the other four games on his potential slate look like decent to good matchups.

You may not have noticed, but Osvaldo Bido has been on fire for the A’s during the second half of the season. Over his last three starts across 17 innings, he’s allowed just a single run. His four-seamer has been a fantastic weapon for him, generating both swings and misses and weak contact with plenty of ride at the top of the zone. His changeup and slider are both effective secondary offerings giving him a pretty deep repertoire. His batted ball profile leans pretty heavily towards fly balls and the one start he’s made on the road in a hitter friendly stadium ended up being a seven-run disaster in Anaheim. His xFIP as a starter is 4.20 which isn’t nearly as nice as his actual results. You can probably trust him in his cavernous home ballpark in Oakland, but he might be a risk to start on the road in places like Cincinnati.

It took a while for David Peterson to get his legs under him after starting the season on the Injured List as he rehabbed from his hip injury from last year. Since the beginning of July, spanning his last 10 starts, he’s posted a perfectly acceptable 3.82 FIP with a 4.17 xFIP. He’s been even better in August with those marks falling to 3.17 and 4.14, respectively. That his xFIP didn’t really budge despite seeing much improved actual results is a possible yellow flag. He’s also struggled with his command at times, a skill that was never his strong suit to begin with. He’s got a pretty generous schedule on the docket, however, and even if he regresses towards his xFIP, he should still be a useful starter down the stretch.

Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence.

A few general schedule notes:

• The are a few teams who have scheduled doubleheaders next week — the Royals and Guardians and the Brewers and Reds. Kansas City has the most difficult schedule since they’ll be in the midst of a 12-day, 13-game stretch. Cleveland will likely need to call up two pitchers to cover for their doubleheader as they’re at the end of a long stretch of games without an off day.
• As far as easier matchups go, the Pirates have a pretty nice schedule against the Cubs and the Guardians. It’s also probable that Jared Jones will make his return from the IL next week and he’s lined up to get a pretty nice matchup against Chicago.
• A bunch of teams are facing a pair of tough opponents next week: the Braves, Dodgers, Orioles, and Phillies. Baltimore probably has the worst schedule as they travel to Los Angeles and Colorado with a beat up starting rotation — Corbin Burnes is the only pitcher I can recommend from their staff.

After a week hiatus, welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence.

A few general schedule notes:

• The Brewers, Cubs, and Giants all have a pair of easier matchups next week. I like all of the starters on San Francisco since they’ll be playing at home and they’ve got a pretty solid rotation right now. Milwaukee plays in two very pitcher friendly stadiums, but I just don’t trust Frankie Montas or Aaron Civale all that much, even in these favorable matchups.
• On the other end of the spectrum, the Red Sox run into the Astros and red hot Diamondbacks next week and I’d avoid everyone in that rotation save for maybe Tanner Houck’s two starts, and I’d be weary of even starting him despite how good he’s pitched this year.